Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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I am not familiar with with how batters progress and the Minors but obviously he's too advanced for Double A. How much different are the pitchers that he has seen this year compared to pitchers he will see in the MLB this year? Is he currently seeing and hitting all breaking pitches that he would see in the majors?

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3 minutes ago, MSU2661 said:

I am not familiar with with how batters progress and the Minors but obviously he's too advanced for Double A. How much different are the pitchers that he has seen this year compared to pitchers he will see in the MLB this year? Is he currently seeing and hitting all breaking pitches that he would see in the majors?

 

Im pretty sure he gets thrown nothing but fastballs.

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2 minutes ago, MSU2661 said:

I am not familiar with with how batters progress and the Minors but obviously he's too advanced for Double A. How much different are the pitchers that he has seen this year compared to pitchers he will see in the MLB this year? Is he currently seeing and hitting all breaking pitches that he would see in the majors?

 

It varies a slightly league to league but long story short no he's not, at least not anywhere close to the degree he will in the majors. Even AAA is full of career minor leaguers who have underdeveloped breaking stuff. Only way to truly get him that exposure consistently is to...well...you know. 

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Double A baseball is not improving Vlad's skills at the plate.  He is a big fish in a very small pond right now.

The Blue Jays should be focused on finding Vlad better competition.  At least move him to Triple A so he can destroy different pitchers.

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Next TOR home game is Tuesday, June 5. I predict this is his debut

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5 minutes ago, Carlos Correa said:

3/4 with his 10th bomb tonight. Up to a .435 average.

Definitely needs more seasoning. 

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14 minutes ago, Carlos Correa said:

3/4 with his 10th bomb tonight. Up to a .435 average.

 

lolk what a joooke this is becoming. 

 

Ya, totally keep him down so he can work on better fielding the ball guys and throwing to 1st....real good plan. 

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If they weren't going to bring him up to the majors he'd be in AAA by now. The only explanation for letting him obliterate AA pitching is Super 2. I almost feel sorry for the team management. They know they look ridiculous, but there's a lot of money at stake and it's only another week or two. They're probably just as anxious as we are to get the deadline behind them.

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this is getting stupid

 

I just tried to trade Vladdy for Hanley in MLB 2018 and the computer said no

 

phew

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Just now, CaptainObvious said:

If they weren't going to bring him up to the majors he'd be in AAA by now. The only explanation for letting him obliterate AA pitching is Super 2. I almost feel sorry for the team management. They know they look ridiculous, but there's a lot of money at stake and it's only another week or two. They're probably just as anxious as we are to get the deadline behind them.

 

the sad thing is it really isn't that much money, maybe 2 mil?

 

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43 minutes ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

the sad thing is it really isn't that much money, maybe 2 mil?

 

 

It's actually way more money than that. And the better the player, the more it costs. Think of it this way: until a player reaches arbitration, a team can pay him whatever they want (as along as its the minimum). But once arbitration hits, they get a big raise. A super 2 player will get four years of salary arbitration rather than the standard three. So you're basically adding another arbitration year on the back end. And salaries pretty much go up, no matter what you do.  So the end result is you replace a minimum salary year with a very high one. The better the player, the higher the salary. It could easily be $10-$15 Million. That's just the average. But if it's a stud player, you could be talking about $20 million or more.

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The current collective bargaining agreement HIGHLY favors owners. You have a lot of organizations now competing for playoff spots with the bulk of their 'core' mostly arbitration and pre-arb eligible (many of these players making the league minimum or heavily cost controlled).

 

Back in the 90s/early 00s when most teams had to overpay a bunch of 30+ year old aging/declining dinosaurs i could see the appeal to holding a superstar minor leaguer down ... but this is just being really cheap on part of the Blue Jays.

 

Edited by EmbargoLifted

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10 hours ago, Carlos Correa said:

3/4 with his 10th bomb tonight. Up to a .435 average.

 

 

And to think I was being ridiculed by some for merely SUGGESTING he could make a run at a batting title right now...

 

80 hit tool. 

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So I know this has been asked before, but is there an approximate date for the Super 2, I understand the jays gain another year of service and say money but is it first part of June , middle, end? He’s on wire in my re draft and I think I should probably add now.

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3 hours ago, moeron22 said:

 

 

And to think I was being ridiculed by some for merely SUGGESTING he could make a run at a batting title right now...

 

80 hit tool. 

 

you totally proved the naysayers wrong with his 0 MLB games played already.  Very weird time to "I told you so".

 

anyway. I'm not sure if he can play enough games to qualify for a batting title, my only gripe was projecting any player for a 330 average in the majors, let alone a 19 year old rookie.  I do think he could hit for a good average.

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1 hour ago, wahoos1 said:

So I know this has been asked before, but is there an approximate date for the Super 2, I understand the jays gain another year of service and say money but is it first part of June , middle, end? He’s on wire in my re draft and I think I should probably add now.


Here are some historical Super 2 cut off dates. 

Note: 2.130 = 2 years + 130 days

 

  • 2017: 2.123
  • 2016: 2.131
  • 2015: 2.130
  • 2014: 2.133
  • 2013: 2.122
  • 2012: 2.140
  • 2011: 2.146
  • 2010: 2.122
  • 2009: 2.139

    These are over a 183 day season too, and this year it's 187. So if we take 187 less the smallest number on that list (122), this means that joining a team after 65 days into the season was the latest that someone was able to join and still be Super 2 eligible. Day #65 would be June 6.

    Teams are also going to want to give themselves a bit of a buffer though. So Iets say June 15, which would be the start of a weekend homestand for the Jays, would be a safe time to bring him up to avoid Super 2.
Edited by Idoolittle
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9 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

The current collective bargaining agreement HIGHLY favors owners. You have a lot of organizations now competing for playoff spots with the bulk of their 'core' mostly arbitration and pre-arb eligible (many of these players making the league minimum or heavily cost controlled).

 

Back in the 90s/early 00s when most teams had to overpay a bunch of 30+ year old aging/declining dinosaurs i could see the appeal to holding a superstar minor leaguer down ... but this is just being really cheap on part of the Blue Jays.

 

 

The current CBA really isn't that different than the ones before it. The CBA during the 90s/early 00s was virtually the same for major league players. Sure, they did shift Super 2 slightly. I think it used to be the top 17% of players and now its the top 22 %. But most of the rest of the rules are the same. The biggest changes have come in terms of the Rule IV Draft and International Signings. If anything, teams in the 90s/early 00s had to be more cost conscious because revenues were largely locally dependent. So teams like Oakland or KC or Minnesota were at a huge disadvantage. The playing field has hardly leveled, but there's a lot more money in the game these days that is shared by everyone. So it does give those smaller market teams more money overall and some ability to retain their own players.

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1 minute ago, Jericho said:

 

The current CBA really isn't that different than the ones before it. The CBA during the 90s/early 00s was virtually the same for major league players. Sure, they did shift Super 2 slightly. I think it used to be the top 17% of players and now its the top 22 %. But most of the rest of the rules are the same. The biggest changes have come in terms of the Rule IV Draft and International Signings. If anything, teams in the 90s/early 00s had to be more cost conscious because revenues were largely locally dependent. So teams like Oakland or KC or Minnesota were at a huge disadvantage. The playing field has hardly leveled, but there's a lot more money in the game these days that is shared by everyone. So it does give those smaller market teams more money overall and some ability to retain their own players.

 

I think scouting has probably greatly improved and teams are smarter about spending a ton on a veteran free agent.  I think that's the big difference from 15-20 years ago, even if the rules are similar. 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I think scouting has probably greatly improved and teams are smarter about spending a ton on a veteran free agent.  I think that's the big difference from 15-20 years ago, even if the rules are similar. 

 

I'm not so sure. I do think the understanding of the game has gotten better, but everyone is learning at the same time. So it's not really changing the playing field. Maybe teams are shying away from big money contracts, but you still have the Albert Pujols or the Miguel Cabrera or even possibly the Giancarlo Stanton deals weighing teams down. The main difference to me is that 15-20 years ago there were clearly the haves and the have nots. And it was basically all about market-size. The big market teams could afford stars, the medium market teams could afford one or two, and the small market teams could afford no one. There were a fair number of teams that were basically glorified farm teams for other clubs. Once players started to approach unrestricted free agency, a team either had to trade said player or risk losing that player for very little (whatever draft pick compensation they'd receive). So you really saw a lot of the more expensive players end up in a small number of places like New York, LA, Chicago, Texas, etc...

 

The way the money is earned and distributed today, teams can retain far more of their own players. The money isn't level and its not unlimited. So it's not equal, but teams like Cleveland or KC or Houston have much larger windows to compete in. They're not rolling their dice hoping everything comes together in a 1-2 year window. Now it could be 5 years or more if everything goes well.

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The Jays are only 3 games below .500 right now.

 

Hypothetical scenario:

 

- It's June 15th (when they are well in the clear for Vlad's Super 2 cutoff date) 

- The Jays are a .500 team

- Kendrys Morales is still hitting below .200 in the majors

- Vlad Jr is still hitting well over .400 in the minors

 

It seems crazy to me that the Jays wouldn't just call him up at that point. It would essentially be throwing in the towel for this season so that they can call him up in late April 2019 and have an extra year of team control.

 

I mean, it's theoretically justifiable when it comes to dollars and cents for the Jays, but it sends a bad message.

Edited by ReyesMurphyWright

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Its tough for young guys to be successful right off the bat, they might start out hot and then struggle until they adjust if they can, Acuna is having a hard time, Bellinger as good as he was last year, seems like they figured him out, Kingery hasn't done much, Hoskins isn't playing as well as i thought he would. Soto hasn't been up long enough to judge either way, but i don't think he will do that great, it's tough for a 19 year old not to only adjust to MLB pitching but the lifestyle as well, Meadows and O'neill are doing well but they are older and spent a lot more time in the minors, but again both have a small sample size the only young guys who has come up in the last year or so who has kept playing well are Albies, Devers Torres but again small sample size for Torres. Benintendi has been good and Moncada has been meh.

Edited by azeri98
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