Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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13 minutes ago, Magoo said:

$15 million worth of merchandise?  Doubt that lol.

 

- they want control

- they want to save money

- they want to showcase potential trade fodder

 

 merchandise & ticket sales could be a factor to bring him up earlier as in June compared to September

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56 minutes ago, jahweedum said:

 

- they want control

- they want to save money

- they want to showcase potential trade fodder

 

 merchandise & ticket sales could be a factor to bring him up earlier as in June compared to September

They are bringing him up mid June because they will save anywhere from $10 to $20 million in that extra arbitration year. He will likely come up when they play in Tampa around June 11.

 

Merchandise sales have little to do with it.

 

it’s really not that complicated.

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4 minutes ago, Magoo said:

Merchandise sales have little to do with it.

 

You don't think the value of a guy that everyone will know, everywhere, has nothing?

 

They aren't competing - they need more incentive than some magical call up date where upon all viable prospects are then called up.  I wouldn't think they'd bring him up just to DH and I'd think they'd want to showcase Donaldson and hope he hits at every opportunity until they trade him.

 

Even if you don't think merchandise matters, it's more complicated than you make it sound and it all depends on how the minds of the powers in charge think.

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4 hours ago, jahweedum said:

 

You don't think the value of a guy that everyone will know, everywhere, has nothing?

 

They aren't competing - they need more incentive than some magical call up date where upon all viable prospects are then called up.  I wouldn't think they'd bring him up just to DH and I'd think they'd want to showcase Donaldson and hope he hits at every opportunity until they trade him.

 

Even if you don't think merchandise matters, it's more complicated than you make it sound and it all depends on how the minds of the powers in charge think.

 

Donaldson is an expiring contract with a track record of hitting. Although he is in decline the guy can still hit right now and if a GM who is in contention feels like Donaldson can be an upgrade and that he can help them make a playoff push they'll trade for him now. The Jays don't need to showcase a veteran with the track record Donaldson has. I heard a rumor that he might be going to St Louis and I mean in the next few weeks. I'm not sure how accurate that is but I'd be shocked if they keep Donaldson all the way to the trade deadline. 

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Pretty tough to showcase Donaldson when he can’t stay healthy. But as was stated above, he is a proven vet who can hit. He doesn’t need to be showcased, he needs to stay healthy.

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Well the call up watch official starts tomorrow, June 1. Super 2 is sometime this month so it could be any day now that he gets the call 

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Atkins: Best place for Vlad Jr. right now is double-A

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/atkins-best-place-vlad-jr-right-now-double/

 

Lol. 

 

“The biggest factor is him realizing his potential and the best place to do that right now is in New Hampshire but that won’t be forever and it won’t be for long. He’s dominating at a rate that suggests that he needs to be considered for triple-A.”

Edited by smeeze

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On 5/31/2018 at 5:49 AM, Cdub2k said:

 

Donaldson is an expiring contract with a track record of hitting. Although he is in decline the guy can still hit right now and if a GM who is in contention feels like Donaldson can be an upgrade and that he can help them make a playoff push they'll trade for him now. The Jays don't need to showcase a veteran with the track record Donaldson has. I heard a rumor that he might be going to St Louis and I mean in the next few weeks. I'm not sure how accurate that is but I'd be shocked if they keep Donaldson all the way to the trade deadline. 

 

Basically this ^ 

 

It's Donaldson, former MVP?? He does not need to be showcased. He will almost certainly be moved before the deadline and there are other possibilities as well (Atlanta?) 

 

Not sure about his overall ROS season value for fantasy though. Some beat writers have speculated he might be playing hurt or at least pretty banged up, not sure if a change of scenery will help his production much. 

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1 hour ago, Malefide said:

 

Basically this ^ 

 

It's Donaldson, former MVP?? He does not need to be showcased. He will almost certainly be moved before the deadline and there are other possibilities as well (Atlanta?) 

 

Not sure about his overall ROS season value for fantasy though. Some beat writers have speculated he might be playing hurt or at least pretty banged up, not sure if a change of scenery will help his production much. 

 

He's got 2 months to rehab his value. I think it's almost a guarantee he gets traded.

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I’ve now lost almost all faith he’ll be in the majors before September based on Atkins recent comments. AAA is now talked about as a “consideration”. Forget about the majors any time soon.

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I didn't see the comments you're referring to, but AAA being mentioned as a possibility doesn't surprise me. They have to say something, and "We think AA is the right place for him." would make them sound like idiots. They'd either have to admit that they're keeping him there for financial/control considerations or broach the possibility of keeping him in the minors at a more advanced level. As I've mentioned before, if they didn't plan to give him a spot in the majors they'd have moved him to AAA weeks ago. Of course, this is just speculation and it's always dangerous to predict what baseball management will do.

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10 minutes ago, phizzics said:

 They have to say something, and "We think AA is the right place for him." would make them sound like idiots. 

 

Thats what he said, and they are idiots. They’re slowplaying the crap out of this. If you plan on taking as long as possible to keep a guy in the minors, you stretch out each level for as long as you can. It’s obvious he should already be in AAA, and when they refer to it as a consideration, they’re trying to make it sound like it’s an important part in his development (also something they’ve said), which we all know it’s not. But if it’s supposedly “important” to them, then you would think they would keep him there longer than one or two weeks. 

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1 hour ago, exaulz said:

I’ve now lost almost all faith he’ll be in the majors before September based on Atkins recent comments. AAA is now talked about as a “consideration”. Forget about the majors any time soon.

I'm getting that feeling too. The local Toronto guy on here has been saying it for weeks now but I didn't think that made any sense. I think Eloy might beat him to the majors.

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On 5/31/2018 at 1:29 AM, jahweedum said:

 

You don't think the value of a guy that everyone will know, everywhere, has nothing?

 

They aren't competing - they need more incentive than some magical call up date where upon all viable prospects are then called up.  I wouldn't think they'd bring him up just to DH and I'd think they'd want to showcase Donaldson and hope he hits at every opportunity until they trade him.

 

Even if you don't think merchandise matters, it's more complicated than you make it sound and it all depends on how the minds of the powers in charge think.

 

I think you misjudge the impact of the merchandise sales though. It's not that there's literally zero value. But the question becomes what's the difference in sales if you call him up now versus waiting a few weeks? The answer's uncertain, but it's likely more about shifting sale. There's surely going to be a rush of sales once he is called up. But after the initial rush, it'll drop off. And there's still 3+ months left in the season (and beyond) to sell jerseys. But the next gain to the team is not a ton versus the alternatives.

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5 hours ago, smeeze said:

 

 

“The biggest factor is him realizing his potential and the best place to do that right now is in New Hampshire but that won't be forever...”

Good Point. Who doesn't dream of besting Gary Redus's .462 in Billings, 1978? Given a full season as a Fisher Cat, with modest improvement this kid actually has a shot at history. Of course he won't be there forever, but what kind of ownership would promote him prematurely and snatch away that amazing opportunity at truly awesome-ness? It's refreshing to see management brave enough to look past the bottom line and do right by baseball.

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From Toronto and while there is significant Buzz the consensus from the Baseball experts is "Maybe a September call-up".  They mention that he is not ready defensively, and with Smoak and Morales still on the team the options of 1B or DH are blocked (and Morales is playing terrible).  That being said - this is exactly what anyone would say who is trying to get maximum value for Donaldson.  Team will not compete this year - so really no rush.  We have lots of possible veterans available at the dead line (Happ, Morales, Donaldson, Smoak, Martin, Granderson, Oh, Clippard, Axford, Estrada, Garcia, Pearce, Tulo), and my gut tells me we will see plenty of moves and then Vladdy joining the team in August/September.

 

Jays are in the middle of a full-on rebuild and Vladdy will not help them this year...

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19 minutes ago, meh2 said:

I'm getting that feeling too. The local Toronto guy on here has been saying it for weeks now but I didn't think that made any sense. I think Eloy might beat him to the majors.

 

Ehh...the "local guy"  on here is just a jaded toronto sports fan, so I won't be giving much credit there, even if he does turn out to be right.  I'm also a local guy for what it's worth, and what it's worth is nothing at all. None of us truly know any more than the next guy - the Jays have never had a prospect this young, this good. There's no precedent, unless you want to cite what Shatkins did while in Cleveland. We'll see...if AAA is so important to the Jays, then he'll likely spend at the very least 2 weeks there. But if they're saying AA is the best place for him right now, I'd temper my expecations on a promotion anytime soon. In which case, the majors by the end of June is looking to be out of the question but I hope I'm wrong. 

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I would be shocked if he's not called up sometime this month. The question is whether it's to AAA or the majors. Wherever he ends up by the end of the month though is probably where he stays for the rest of the season.

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Let’s be clear about one thing, the Jays are 100% not going to promote him directly to the majors from AA. This is about the only thing we know at this point. So the real clock will start ticking once he gets that AAA promotion.

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12 minutes ago, exaulz said:

Let’s be clear about one thing, the Jays are 100% not going to promote him directly to the majors from AA. This is about the only thing we know at this point. So the real clock will start ticking once he gets that AAA promotion.


I'm thinking there are three options that are the most likely to happen:
1. He gets called up to AAA, plays a week or two there, then gets called up to the big leagues before the end of June.
2. He makes the jump directly from AA to the big leagues before the end of June.
3. He gets called up to AAA sometime before the end of June, then stays there for the rest of the season. He's then called up to the big leagues a few weeks into next season (assuming the production is still there).

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