Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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1 minute ago, STLSU said:

 

Not being a fix-all of course, but range and slow feet as you cite (as well as throwing) can be improved and sharpened through repeated practice and development of a shuffle step to avoid fielding the ball to your side and making an offbalance and offsync throw.  But I guess if it were up to you he has no future enhanced value possibilities.  LOL.  

 

“The reason they have slow feet is that they take a step or step-and-a-half and field the ball off to the side,” Boggs said. “Whereas if they shuffle really quick they can field it in front. That’s where a lot of times they’ll say, ‘Wow, this guy has really slow feet.’ It’s just a drop-step where you can shuffle over with a drop-step, get in front of the baseball, and now you’re more in line to throw to first base as opposed to fielding the ball on the side and making a half-turn and throwing sidearm to first. You never really get the full shoulder turn and aim at the target. It’s really simple. “He probably doesn’t feel it,” Boggs added. “You just present it like this is what it feels like and the lightbulb goes off and they go, ‘Wow, I didn’t know it was that easy.’ A lot of young third basemen don’t know the drop-step and that’s where you’re creating range, which is created by moving laterally and dropping with either foot to create angles. Once you learn that, it’s like night and day. Now you’re getting to balls you never even thought of getting to. You’re not taking a diagonal approach, you’re taking more of a triangular approach to where all the angles are getting bigger and you’re covering more ground.”
 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/08/27/mike-harrington-lots-of-change-coming-when-fans-return-to-ballpark-next-season/

 

Guerrero has done all of his damage in Triple-A at home, batting .397 in his 16 games downtown with five doubles, five homers and 12 of his 13 RBIs. His on-base percentage at home was .456, his slugging mark was .741, and his OPS was an obscene 1.197. His defense has been better than expected, and his disposition has been happy-go-lucky every day.

His range is limited by his size, which is just increasing.  Every single scout I've heard thinks he will be a 1b or DH within 5 years.  They don't have a spot open there without benching someone they are paying over 10m for though.  His instincts for the position are off as well.  It's just not a good fit for him at all.  If they had 1b or DH open he probably would already have been on the team.  

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6 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Nope, just because I don't think he's 100% ready right now defensively doesn't mean I don't think he will be a productive hitter. 

 

I agree he is not 100% ready defensively as a 3b.

 

Despite that fact, he is 100% ready for the majors.

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6 minutes ago, STLSU said:

 

Not being a fix-all of course, but range and slow feet as you cite (as well as throwing) can be improved and sharpened through repeated practice and development of a shuffle step to avoid fielding the ball to your side and making an offbalance and offsync throw.  But I guess if it were up to you he has no future enhanced value possibilities.  LOL.  

 

“The reason they have slow feet is that they take a step or step-and-a-half and field the ball off to the side,” Boggs said. “Whereas if they shuffle really quick they can field it in front. That’s where a lot of times they’ll say, ‘Wow, this guy has really slow feet.’ It’s just a drop-step where you can shuffle over with a drop-step, get in front of the baseball, and now you’re more in line to throw to first base as opposed to fielding the ball on the side and making a half-turn and throwing sidearm to first. You never really get the full shoulder turn and aim at the target. It’s really simple. “He probably doesn’t feel it,” Boggs added. “You just present it like this is what it feels like and the lightbulb goes off and they go, ‘Wow, I didn’t know it was that easy.’ A lot of young third basemen don’t know the drop-step and that’s where you’re creating range, which is created by moving laterally and dropping with either foot to create angles. Once you learn that, it’s like night and day. Now you’re getting to balls you never even thought of getting to. You’re not taking a diagonal approach, you’re taking more of a triangular approach to where all the angles are getting bigger and you’re covering more ground.”
 

 

https://buffalonews.com/2018/08/27/mike-harrington-lots-of-change-coming-when-fans-return-to-ballpark-next-season/

 

Guerrero has done all of his damage in Triple-A at home, batting .397 in his 16 games downtown with five doubles, five homers and 12 of his 13 RBIs. His on-base percentage at home was .456, his slugging mark was .741, and his OPS was an obscene 1.197. His defense has been better than expected, and his disposition has been happy-go-lucky every day.

Also on the other end look at his away stats in AAA: .269/.367/.365 for an OPS of .732.  Only 3 XBH.  He's even worse in day games which occur more in the majors than the minors with an OPS of .526.  He also takes a ton of pitches, which while nice will bite him a bit more in the majors.  AAA is usually where guys without control are pitching compared to other stops of the minors and his average, obp and slugging are horrible when he gets behind in the count (which will happen a ton more in the majors) at .242/.229/.273

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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I agree he is not 100% ready defensively as a 3b.

 

Despite that fact, he is 100% ready for the majors.

If he was playing 1b or DH yes.  Committing errors or not making routine plays at 3b can and will get into his head or cause confrontation.  Segura and Dee Gordon got into a fight in the Mariners locker room after Dee committed a simple error the other day.  Manager came out and said it happens in every locker room.

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8 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Also on the other end look at his away stats in AAA: .269/.367/.365 for an OPS of .732.  Only 3 XBH.  He's even worse in day games which occur more in the majors than the minors with an OPS of .526.  He also takes a ton of pitches, which while nice will bite him a bit more in the majors.  AAA is usually where guys without control are pitching compared to other stops of the minors and his average, obp and slugging are horrible when he gets behind in the count (which will happen a ton more in the majors) at .242/.229/.273

Day games statistics are generally not helpful.  There are fewer of them than night games typically.  Also the IL parks are mostly pitcher friendly and Buffalo ranks in the middle of the list.  I'm not seeing a statistical relevance in his away stats than just the typical comfort level hitters have at home.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/x-factors-triple-a-ballpark-effects/c-66858162

 

International League: At a Glance

Stadium Team R HR H
Huntington Park Columbus Clippers 1.230 1.681 1.089
Durham Bulls Athletic Park Durham Bulls 1.107 1.415 1.051
Frontier Field Rochester Red Wings 1.052 1.045 1.012
Alliance Bank Stadium Syracuse Chiefs 1.028 0.972 1.029
Louisville Slugger Field Louisville Bats 1.027 0.965 1.015
Coolray Field Gwinnett Braves 1.025 0.873 1.036
Coca-Cola Field Buffalo Bisons 1.015 0.977 0.958
Victory Field Indianapolis Indians 0.989 0.885 1.027
Harbor Park Norfolk Tides 0.973 0.861 0.981
Knights Stadium Charlotte Knights 0.969 1.068 0.991
McCoy Stadium Pawtucket Red Sox 0.946 1.198 0.961
Coca-Cola Park Lehigh Valley IronPigs 0.923 0.884 0.960
Fifth Third Field Toledo Mud Hens 0.899 0.762 0.954
PNC Field (2010-11, 2013) SWB RailRiders 0.878 0.824 0.945

 The International League has been the more offensively challenged Triple-A circuit for several years. Run rates, batting averages, homer rates and walk rates are all lower in the IL than either the Pacific Coast League or Mexican League.

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In the bigs, many vets like having off day games after a night games simply because of the rigors of a full MLB season.  Also the shadows can be rough on mid afternoon/twinight games on hitters.  That's universally applicable and is not a Vlad problem.

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https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players-union-criticizes-blue-jays-not-calling-guerrero/

 

“The union’s position on service-time manipulation is clear, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and other great young talents around baseball have earned the right to play on the field for a major-league team,” a players association spokesman told Sportsnet on Thursday. “The decision to not to bring him up is a business decision, not a baseball decision. It’s bad for the Blue Jays, it’s bad for fans, it’s bad for players and it’s bad for the industry.”

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28 minutes ago, STLSU said:

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/players-union-criticizes-blue-jays-not-calling-guerrero/

 

“The union’s position on service-time manipulation is clear, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and other great young talents around baseball have earned the right to play on the field for a major-league team,” a players association spokesman told Sportsnet on Thursday. “The decision to not to bring him up is a business decision, not a baseball decision. It’s bad for the Blue Jays, it’s bad for fans, it’s bad for players and it’s bad for the industry.”

That's funny, because Vlad isn't a part of the MLBPA until after he makes the majors.  Plus the 'spokesman' for the union didn't even disclose his name.  Probably because as Vlad isn't part of the union, saying stuff like this is actually against the CBA and he would be fined.

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53 minutes ago, STLSU said:

Day games statistics are generally not helpful.  There are fewer of them than night games typically.  Also the IL parks are mostly pitcher friendly and Buffalo ranks in the middle of the list.  I'm not seeing a statistical relevance in his away stats than just the typical comfort level hitters have at home.

https://www.milb.com/milb/news/x-factors-triple-a-ballpark-effects/c-66858162

 

International League: At a Glance

Stadium Team R HR H
Huntington Park Columbus Clippers 1.230 1.681 1.089
Durham Bulls Athletic Park Durham Bulls 1.107 1.415 1.051
Frontier Field Rochester Red Wings 1.052 1.045 1.012
Alliance Bank Stadium Syracuse Chiefs 1.028 0.972 1.029
Louisville Slugger Field Louisville Bats 1.027 0.965 1.015
Coolray Field Gwinnett Braves 1.025 0.873 1.036
Coca-Cola Field Buffalo Bisons 1.015 0.977 0.958
Victory Field Indianapolis Indians 0.989 0.885 1.027
Harbor Park Norfolk Tides 0.973 0.861 0.981
Knights Stadium Charlotte Knights 0.969 1.068 0.991
McCoy Stadium Pawtucket Red Sox 0.946 1.198 0.961
Coca-Cola Park Lehigh Valley IronPigs 0.923 0.884 0.960
Fifth Third Field Toledo Mud Hens 0.899 0.762 0.954
PNC Field (2010-11, 2013) SWB RailRiders 0.878 0.824 0.945

 The International League has been the more offensively challenged Triple-A circuit for several years. Run rates, batting averages, homer rates and walk rates are all lower in the IL than either the Pacific Coast League or Mexican League.

You cited an article from 2014... this is from 2016.  If Buffalo is middle of the pack and he gets away games at MUCH friendlier hitting environments why is he so bad away from home?  Also from 2014-16 AA New Hampshire has been one of the most offensive parks in all of AA.

International League -- 2016

Team R HR H
Columbus 1.144 1.571 1.011
Lehigh Valley 1.119 1.013 1.066
Charlotte 1.109 1.388 1.080
Durham 1.102 1.283 1.029
Syracuse 1.080 0.832 1.098
Buffalo 1.051 0.969 1.019
Rochester 1.002 0.756 0.937
Louisville 0.991 1.110 0.994
Gwinnett 0.991 1.026 1.019
Norfolk 0.948 0.675 0.975
Pawtucket 0.924 1.213 0.859
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 0.910 0.926 0.998
Toledo 0.900 0.810 0.956
Indianapolis 0.779 0.648

0.982

 

 

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58 minutes ago, STLSU said:

In the bigs, many vets like having off day games after a night games simply because of the rigors of a full MLB season.  Also the shadows can be rough on mid afternoon/twinight games on hitters.  That's universally applicable and is not a Vlad problem.

If Vlad has the same OPS in day games at the major league level he would be currently ranked as the 314th best MLB hitter this season during day games.  Just above the DFA Craig Gentry and below Victor Caratini.  A large chunk of MLB hitters have about 200 PAs or above during day games.  That's a problem, and it's not a universal one as 110 hitters with over 70 PAs in day games have an OPS of .800 or more...

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3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

That's funny, because Vlad isn't a part of the MLBPA until after he makes the majors.  Plus the 'spokesman' for the union didn't even disclose his name.  Probably because as Vlad isn't part of the union, saying stuff like this is actually against the CBA and he would be fined.

Your point? Everyone knows this.  Your post is nonresponsive.

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3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

If Vlad has the same OPS in day games at the major league level he would be currently ranked as the 314th best MLB hitter this season during day games.  Just above the DFA Craig Gentry and below Victor Caratini.  A large chunk of MLB hitters have about 200 PAs or above during day games.  That's a problem, and it's not a universal one as 110 hitters with over 70 PAs in day games have an OPS of .800 or more...

Universal meaning everyone deals with it and many vets do not play day games.  You don't understand the argument.

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3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

You cited an article from 2014... this is from 2016.  If Buffalo is middle of the pack and he gets away games at MUCH friendlier hitting environments why is he so bad away from home?  Also from 2014-16 AA New Hampshire has been one of the most offensive parks in all of AA.

International League -- 2016

Team R HR H
Columbus 1.144 1.571 1.011
Lehigh Valley 1.119 1.013 1.066
Charlotte 1.109 1.388 1.080
Durham 1.102 1.283 1.029
Syracuse 1.080 0.832 1.098
Buffalo 1.051 0.969 1.019
Rochester 1.002 0.756 0.937
Louisville 0.991 1.110 0.994
Gwinnett 0.991 1.026 1.019
Norfolk 0.948 0.675 0.975
Pawtucket 0.924 1.213 0.859
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre 0.910 0.926 0.998
Toledo 0.900 0.810 0.956
Indianapolis 0.779 0.648

0.982

 

 

Nonresponsive.  Buffalo is still in the middle of the pack and beyond a few teams swapping spots, the point eluding you is that away teams are equally divided between pitchers' and hitters' parks.  

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The guy's AAA wRC+ is 175. The Jays Are 33 1/2 games out if 1st place. Donaldson is gone. To suggest that a few errors down the stretch in a meaningless season might somehow ruin him or hurt the team is just silly. The Blue Jays are acting in bad faith --delaying his development by keeping him down.  

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"Albert Pujols will never make it as a major leaguer. His defense at 3b is bad."

 

-daynlokki 

c. 2000

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What a weird thing to take such a stance on. It's all moot anyway, he's not coming up this year whether it's due to Service Time manipulation (duh) or his defense (not really). But at this point, this troll is just arguing to feel right or something? Nobody in here is looking at these posts and thinking "wow, this troll makes a really compelling argument, he DOES need to work on his defense before the Jays call him up. It has NOTHING to do with the extra year of control they gain by keeping him down until mid-April 2019!"

 

Thread should just be locked until spring training. 

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12 hours ago, daynlokki said:

If Vlad has the same OPS in day games at the major league level he would be currently ranked as the 314th best MLB hitter this season during day games.  Just above the DFA Craig Gentry and below Victor Caratini.  A large chunk of MLB hitters have about 200 PAs or above during day games.  That's a problem, and it's not a universal one as 110 hitters with over 70 PAs in day games have an OPS of .800 or more...

 

so you went to milb.com and hit splits and decided to find something to troll with, congrats.

 

Had you clicked the tab and switched it to AA you'd notice this year had had a 1.431 OPS in 15 Day games, which is about the same tiny sample size as his 541 in AAA.  Pretty clear you traded him away for nothing in a league. 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

so you went to milb.com and hit splits and decided to find something to troll with, congrats.

 

Had you clicked the tab and switched it to AA you'd notice this year had had a 1.431 OPS in 15 Day games, which is about the same tiny sample size as his 541 in AAA.  Pretty clear you traded him away for nothing in a league. 

 

 

 

It's laughable he thinks Moncada and Buxton are comparable in any way too. Two guys who have both struck out more times in one season than Vlad Jr. has in his entire 1200 MILB plate appearances. 

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2 hours ago, moeron22 said:

...Thread should just be locked until spring training. 

Nah. This thread is the only place on the intrawebs I get fresh Vlad copy every morning. Trolls welcome, fanboy needs fix. ?

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14 hours ago, STLSU said:

Your point? Everyone knows this.  Your post is nonresponsive.

My point is without there being a name attached to it, that it could be utter nonsense as any union member would know they were breaking the CBA.  Which means that withough anything to back it up, the story means literally nothing.

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11 hours ago, bdy1 said:

The guy's AAA wRC+ is 175. The Jays Are 33 1/2 games out if 1st place. Donaldson is gone. To suggest that a few errors down the stretch in a meaningless season might somehow ruin him or hurt the team is just silly. The Blue Jays are acting in bad faith --delaying his development by keeping him down.  

It won't be a few errors when he goes to a league that actually hits pitching, especially when every pitcher in their starting rotation are ground ballers.

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6 hours ago, moeron22 said:

"Albert Pujols will never make it as a major leaguer. His defense at 3b is bad."

 

-daynlokki 

c. 2000

Pujols had a spot at 1b to come up to play.  Who you sitting if you are the Blue Jays?  Smoak who you are paying 6m next year or Morales who you are paying 12m next year?  Or would you rather he play a horrible 3b and you bench Solarte who you are paying 5m next year.  They have a low payroll, they cannot afford to not play veterans they have a chance to possibly trade at the deadline next year.

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5 hours ago, moeron22 said:

What a weird thing to take such a stance on. It's all moot anyway, he's not coming up this year whether it's due to Service Time manipulation (duh) or his defense (not really). But at this point, this troll is just arguing to feel right or something? Nobody in here is looking at these posts and thinking "wow, this troll makes a really compelling argument, he DOES need to work on his defense before the Jays call him up. It has NOTHING to do with the extra year of control they gain by keeping him down until mid-April 2019!"

 

Thread should just be locked until spring training. 

Maybe you should read a little, you know where I state that service time manipulation isn't the ONLY reason he's still down.  Him not being on the 40-man, them trying to find pieces via waivers, his defensive liabilities (also why they have him in the fall league this year wow!), there are a ton of reasons and to think the only one is just service time is stupid.  I'm assuming most here aren't stupid enough to think only one thing keeps prospects down when guys like Soto get called up and stay up for the Nats even though they are completely out of the playoff picture and haven't had a realistic chance since the deadline.

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

so you went to milb.com and hit splits and decided to find something to troll with, congrats.

 

Had you clicked the tab and switched it to AA you'd notice this year had had a 1.431 OPS in 15 Day games, which is about the same tiny sample size as his 541 in AAA.  Pretty clear you traded him away for nothing in a league. 

 

 

Pretty clear you haven't read any of the other stats, 19% IFFB this year is bad, I also said his BABIP was fluky in AA, guess what, it regressed to the norm in AAA.  His bat is good, he's about a .300 hitter in the majors which I have already stated.  He would also probably be the worst defensive 3b in the major leagues.  The same league where Brendan Ryan started for years because he had a good glove, even though he hit around the Mendoza line. Look at all his teammates in AA, every single one of them had near career years.  That should tell you a bit.  Should we just look at guys from Reading on the Phils and think they will rake too?  Why isn't Cozens up then after his year last year?  Oh yeah, because even though he hit .276/.350/.591 last year with 40 hrs there when he moved to AAA the last two years his average dropped to about .230 overall.  I remember when Pitt fans were pissed Lambo never got the call up in 2013 when he hit 32 hrs.  If you just look at the basic stats from the 1900s he looked really good.  Unfortunately advanced metrics showed a lot of what happened was fluky, same thing with Vlad this year.  He had a great season, not taking that away, you get the stats no matter if it's a fluke or not, but you don't rush someone to the majors based on 357 abs in a season.  He wouldn't have even qualified for the minor league average leader lol.  They want his defense improved, they want him to be more aggressive when looking for his pitch.  When he just sits back and gets behind in the count (which happens way more in the majors than AAAA), his average is like .150.  His power stroke hasn't shown up yet as he has 41 total hrs in 1030 abs despite AA being an offensive ballpark.  Even his baserunning needs major improvement.  You can see it on the basic stats you seem to love by his CS where he has 12 the last 3 years.  If you actually watch him, he makes bonehead plays on the basepaths all the time.  He has the mentality of Puig, which has caused his shine to come off a bit.  

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15 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Pretty clear you haven't read any of the other stats, 19% IFFB this year is bad, I also said his BABIP was fluky in AA, guess what, it regressed to the norm in AAA. 

 

He has a 175 WRC+ in AAA, pretty good for regression. Also named Minor League player of the year today. I guess if you can poke holes in the best player you can poke holes in everyone.  I stopped read after that line. 

 

+1400 OPS in AA in day games. I guess the stadium has better shade or something. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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