Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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4 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

He has a 175 WRC+ in AAA, pretty good for regression. Also named Minor League player of the year today. I guess if you can poke holes in the best player you can poke holes in everyone.  I stopped read after that line. 

 

+1400 OPS in AA in day games. I guess the stadium has better shade or something. 

Buxton and Moncada won the same award. Buxton is in the minors and Moncada looks like crap. Awards don't mean much overall. 

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8 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Buxton and Moncada won the same award. Buxton is in the minors and Moncada looks like crap. Awards don't mean much overall. 

 

So did Trout and Acuna. Hope you're right about Vlad being bad, we'll find out next year. No back peddling.

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I swear you must not have any reading comprehension. Like where I said he's a .300 bat in the majors... Well can't fix stupid

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30 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

So did Trout and Acuna. Hope you're right about Vlad being bad, we'll find out next year. No back peddling.

Well so did Jon Rauch lol. Take it with a BIIIIG grain of salt. 

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31 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I swear you must not have any reading comprehension. Like where I said he's a .300 bat in the majors... Well can't fix stupid

 

You're the one comparing Vlad Jr to Craig Gentry based on a 15 game "day game" sample size and now Jon Rauch. 

 

I guess we'll see who's right next year. No need for personal attacks. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

You're the one comparing Vlad Jr to Craig Gentry based on a 15 game "day game" sample size and now Jon Rauch. 

 

I guess we'll see who's right next year. No need for personal attacks. 

Not a personal attack. I clearly wrote I think he's offensively mlb ready. You chose to ignore that. Ergo poor reading comprehension. Rauch won the exact award you are applauding him for. That's the comparison. Over half of the top prospects never pan out. I hope he does. But rushing a player usually doesn't help anyone. All it does is hurt his confidence then he starts doing the exact thing Buxton is doing. Shows major promise then gets shipped back to the minors. Notice you aren't saying anything about the twins manipulating service time with him this season by not having HIM up in September. Also giving them an extra year of control. 

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29 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Not a personal attack. I clearly wrote I think he's offensively mlb ready. You chose to ignore that. Ergo poor reading comprehension. Rauch won the exact award you are applauding him for. That's the comparison. Over half of the top prospects never pan out. I hope he does. But rushing a player usually doesn't help anyone. All it does is hurt his confidence then he starts doing the exact thing Buxton is doing. Shows major promise then gets shipped back to the minors. Notice you aren't saying anything about the twins manipulating service time with him this season by not having HIM up in September. Also giving them an extra year of control. 

 

If you think he's Joe Rauch or Buxton, thats on you. It's cool, we'll find out next year if you're right. Hope Vlad's awful defense and lack being able to hit when it's day won't make him  a negative WAR player like you insinuated. We'll find out. 

 

I think what the Twins doing with Buxton is also BS, I get why both teams are doing it though, but it's 100% service time issues.  If I was a Blue Jays fan, I'd probably want him not called up. As a fantasy owner with peculiar rules, I also don't hope Vlad gets called up at this point. I still think he should have been up after Super 2 because he'd be one of the Blue Jays better player, if not one of the best. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Blue Jays are actually talking about him making the team right out of Spring Training.  If that happens, they don't get the extra year anyways.  Which would make the service time complaint nonexistant and prove my point if it occurs.

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Vladdy (175 RC+)

128 PAs

47 GBs, 24 OFBs, 24 LDs

15 BB's, 10 K's, 5 IFFBs

2 Sac Flies, 1 HBP

 

Expected HRs off 25% HR/OFB is 6

Balls in Play Minus IFFB: 95

K/GB/IFFB: 62

 

 

Goldy's Last 128 PAs  (196 RC+)

128 PAs

31 GBs ,28 OFBs ,25 LDs

22 Ks, 14 BBs, 6 IFFB

1 HBP

 

Expected HRs off 25% HR/OFB is 7

Balls in Play Minus IFFB: 84

K/GB/IFFB: 59

 

Dude is putting up comparable outcomes to one the hottest hitters in the majors and one the best hitters of the last 5 years.. in AAA.

 

But.. lets keep him in AAA. He needs to work on defense. So lets end his season a month early instead of having work on it in majors. Where the blue jays are playing for absolutely nothing.

 

Solid logic if i say myself

Edited by Slatykamora
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I, for one, think its pretty cool that we have been graced with the presence of a toronto blue jays front office exec.

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The Blue Jays can do all the talking they want, they're not going to call him up straight out of spring training. That extra year means way too much to them. Playing in the AL East, that team needs all the potential franchise players that they can get.

Edited by Sine_cera

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10 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Blue Jays are actually talking about him making the team right out of Spring Training.  If that happens, they don't get the extra year anyways.  Which would make the service time complaint nonexistant and prove my point if it occurs.

 

I mean, I wouldn't bet my life on it, but that seems pretty silly to think there's a chance he makes the team out of camp when 2 weeks gives them an extra year.  They've suffered a ton of criticism this year, might as well get what you want out of it.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Sine_cera said:

The Blue Jays can do all the talking they want, they're not going to call him up straight out of spring training. That extra year means way too much to them. Playing in the AL East, that team needs all the potential franchise players that they can get.

I take that as meaning the Blue jays may attempt to offer an extension in ST.

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19 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Vladdy (175 RC+)

128 PAs

47 GBs, 24 OFBs, 24 LDs

15 BB's, 10 K's, 5 IFFBs

2 Sac Flies, 1 HBP

 

Expected HRs off 25% HR/OFB is 6

Balls in Play Minus IFFB: 95

K/GB/IFFB: 62

 

 

Goldy's Last 128 PAs  (196 RC+)

128 PAs

31 GBs ,28 OFBs ,25 LDs

22 Ks, 14 BBs, 6 IFFB

1 HBP

 

Expected HRs off 25% HR/OFB is 7

Balls in Play Minus IFFB: 84

K/GB/IFFB: 59

 

Dude is putting up comparable outcomes to one the hottest hitters in the majors and one the best hitters of the last 5 years.. in AAA.

 

But.. lets keep him in AAA. He needs to work on defense. So lets end his season a month early instead of having work on it in majors. Where the blue jays are playing for absolutely nothing.

 

Solid logic if i say myself

Love how he had 95 balls in play with 95 balls in play minus IFFB yet has 5 IFFB. Your stats are wrong from the get go.

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Also I could legitimately put the same numbers of ABs with similar ratios for a guy hitting under .200 in that time frame. Its called cherry picking. That's why you don't compare two players directly. Doing that I can make almost anyone look like trout by omitting half the stats and only comparing similar stats instead of the entire overlying statistics

 

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54 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Love how he had 95 balls in play with 95 balls in play minus IFFB yet has 5 IFFB. Your stats are wrong from the get go.

Explain

 

Edit: 110 AB... 10Ks. So 100 Balls in Play.  95 if you take out IFFB..

Edited by Slatykamora

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Ah I only made one mistake. Forgetting to take out 5 from the 24 total FBs when separating them from IFFB to OFB. That was it.

 

So its a 5 HR pace instead of 6 with. Everything else is correct.

 

I was just giving an example and showing you that those numbers are very good. Because they are regardless of cherry picking. 

 

The point of that exercise was to show how low his K rate is. It means he can achieve greater HR totals with lower FB rate then a guy who puts less balls in play. The high amount of LDs to comparatively 5 IFFBs give him a much higher BABIP potential too.  Simply noting that he is grounding out more? yes, but he's striking out less. 

 

He has a 4.4 Pop up rate per AB. There is no world where that is bad for a hitter.

Edited by Slatykamora
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Its very simple.  Batted ball percentages are based off balls in play.  IFFB is specifically a percentage to FBs. I laid out the cumlative totals because each hitter varries in terms of the balls they put in play. Vlad is in the top 5% The FB% and HR/FB rates he needs to sustain 30 HRs a year is going to be less than his power hitting peers that K alot more.

 

There is a reason why K% Is consider the most important stat to track in minor leagues. Because the amount of contact a player effects literally everything about the hitters potetioanl. With the next closest important being ISO. Which illustrate his Extra Base/power potential.

 

All these batted ball stats are secondary and a footnote.. An extreme pop up problem could be a thing, but Vlad is only doing that less than 5 times per AB.

Edited by Slatykamora

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7 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Ah I only made one mistake. Forgetting to take out 5 from the 24 total FBs when separating them from IFFB to OFB. That was it.

 

So its a 5 HR pace instead of 6 with. Everything else is correct.

 

I was just giving an example and showing you that those numbers are very good. Because they are regardless of cherry picking. 

 

The point of that exercise was to show how low his K rate is. It means he can achieve greater HR totals with lower FB rate then a guy who puts less balls in play. The high amount of LDs to comparatively 5 IFFBs give him a much higher BABIP potential too.  Simply noting that he is grounding out more? yes, but he's striking out less. 

 

He has a 4.4 Pop up rate per AB. There is no world where that is bad for a hitter.

His IFFB% is 19%. That would rank him around 150th in the majors this season. That's good?

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6 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Its very simple.  Batted ball percentages are based off balls in play.  IFFB is specifically a percentage to FBs. I laid out the cumlative totals because each hitter varries in terms of the balls they put in play. Vlad is in the top 5% The FB% and HR/FB rates he needs to sustain 30 HRs a year is going to be less than his power hitting peers that K alot more.

 

There is a reason why K% Is consider the most important stat to track in minor leagues. Because the amount of contact a player effects literally everything about the hitters potetioanl. With the next closest important being ISO. Which illustrate his Extra Base/power potential.

 

All these batted ball stats are secondary and a footnote.. An extreme pop up problem could be a thing, but Vlad is only doing that less than 5 times per AB.

Reread your last paragraph and show me how any of that makes sense? 5 times PER AT BAT?

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7 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

Explain

 

Edit: 110 AB... 10Ks. So 100 Balls in Play.  95 if you take out IFFB..

One stat will not change my mind considering his BABIP would be in the top 5 in the majors, k rate increases from AAA to the majors, and I've been mostly discussing his defensive failures. I believe him to be a .300 hitter although he will struggle to hit 30 hr currently. He also needs to stop watching every first pitch. That doesn't work in the majors and he gets flustered when behind in the count. 

Edited by daynlokki

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

His IFFB% is 19%. That would rank him around 150th in the majors this season. That's good?

Have you taken the time to look at IFFB rates for literataly every other prospect? Those numbers are inflated. Minor league batted ball data when it comes to defining the difference between LD/FB/IFFB is imperfect.

 

4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Reread your last paragraph and show me how any of that makes sense? 5 times PER AT BAT?

4.4 percent per AB.. Now you are just nitpicking me. You should have realized what i mean when I said he only had 5 of them. I am done entertaining your trolling to spare the board.

 

Edited by Slatykamora

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On 9/6/2018 at 7:40 PM, daynlokki said:

That's funny, because Vlad isn't a part of the MLBPA until after he makes the majors.  Plus the 'spokesman' for the union didn't even disclose his name.  Probably because as Vlad isn't part of the union, saying stuff like this is actually against the CBA and he would be fined.

The CBA specifies compensation in regard to service time. I haven't read it, but I would be shocked if it contained language allowing teams to shorten players' carreers so that owners could pay them less -- which everyone outside of team offices agrees is happening. I also don't know of any gag orders or fines levied for players complaining about a crappy CBA on behalf of non-union minor leaguers, but that would surprise me less these days and would likely come from the union.

 

As a Blue Jays intern you must have pretty good access. Ask the higher ups around the office what kind of trouble the BJs could face if anyone associated with the team ever admitted, on the record, that Vlad is being kept down for payroll reasons alone.

 

Edited by bdy1
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5 hours ago, Slatykamora said:

 

 

4.4 percent per AB.. Now you are just nitpicking me. You should have realized what i mean when I said he only had 5 of them. I am done entertaining your trolling to spare the board.

 

 

Hes been nitpicking the whole time. Hope he doesn’t turn out into Craig Gentry like @daynlokki predicted.

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8 hours ago, bdy1 said:

The CBA specifies compensation in regard to service time. I haven't read it, but I would be shocked if it contained language allowing teams to shorten players' carreers so that owners could pay them less -- which everyone outside of team offices agrees is happening. I also don't know of any gag orders or fines levied for players complaining about a crappy CBA on behalf of non-union minor leaguers, but that would surprise me less these days and would likely come from the union.

 

As a Blue Jays intern you must have pretty good access. Ask the higher ups around the office what kind of trouble the BJs could face if anyone associated with the team ever admitted, on the record, that Vlad is being kept down for payroll reasons alone.

 

Minor league players aren't a part of the union.  Also, considering Bryant has been trying to get something done WITH the union for 4 years and nothing has happened I'm assuming there is absolutely nothing in the CBA pertaining to players who are not a part of the union until their debut.

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