Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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22 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Morales does have value though.  It's not optimal, but he did hit around .250 with over 20 hrs and a .330 obp.  Even hit a hr in 7 straight games last year.  The only reason the Padres took on Headley last year was to get Bryan Mitchell.  They paid for a prospect basically.

 

I have no idea why you keep bringing up value in Morales. Decent chance he gets traded. Vlad is going to play 3rd. You get no bonus points or anything for squeezing out a 330 obp from a veteran on a rebuilding team. I wouldn’t be surprised if dh/1b to start the year was tellez and Smoak. Morales is fine; I’m not underrating him, but it’s Vlad time:

 

none of these guys or solarte is going to keep vlad from getting playing time. The Blue Jays have maxed out their Vlad manipulation. Everyone knows it. Same with Eloy. Only way they don’t get the Bryant/Acuna treatment is if they get hurt. It is of my opinion foolish to think otherwise. They will deal with his errors, which doesn’t even factor in chance for improvement. 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

I have no idea why you keep bringing up value in Morales. Decent chance he gets traded. Vlad is going to play 3rd. You get no bonus points or anything for squeezing out a 330 obp from a veteran on a rebuilding team. I wouldn’t be surprised if dh/1b to start the year was tellez and Smoak. Morales is fine; I’m not underrating him, but it’s Vlad time:

 

none of these guys or solarte is going to keep vlad from getting playing time. The Blue Jays have maxed out their Vlad manipulation. Everyone knows it. Same with Eloy. Only way they don’t get the Bryant/Acuna treatment is if they get hurt. It is of my opinion foolish to think otherwise. They will deal with his errors, which doesn’t even factor in chance for improvement. 

 

 

You can factor in chance of improvement if you want. There is also a chance those errors get in his head like they do when someone changes positions and their offense goes to crap. It happens all the time. Position players constantly bring up the difficulty mentally to handle errors on the other end. Especially when you factor in media attention which Vlad surely would have. 

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

You can factor in chance of improvement if you want. There is also a chance those errors get in his head like they do when someone changes positions and their offense goes to crap. It happens all the time. Position players constantly bring up the difficulty mentally to handle errors on the other end. Especially when you factor in media attention which Vlad surely would have. 

 

anything is possible, but I think betting against Vlad hitting is going to look quite foolish.

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On 10/12/2018 at 7:44 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

anything is possible, but I think betting against Vlad hitting is going to look quite foolish.

I think betting that anyone is going to hit major league pitching based purely off of minor league hitting is asinine.  99.9% of pitchers in AA and AAA are below the worst pitcher on rosters lol.  So literally everyone he will face will be much tougher and much better prepared for him.  He will have to adjust, which he hasn't had to do yet.  Some hitters can, others just fade away like Buxton because they cannot.

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22 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I think betting that anyone is going to hit major league pitching based purely off of minor league hitting is asinine.  99.9% of pitchers in AA and AAA are below the worst pitcher on rosters lol.  So literally everyone he will face will be much tougher and much better prepared for him.  He will have to adjust, which he hasn't had to do yet.  Some hitters can, others just fade away like Buxton because they cannot.

 

I guess we will see who is right. 

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People are strawmanning arguments that Vlad won't be good because he's hyped because so was Byron Buxton.

 

Very different player. 

Edited by tonycpsu
Removed quote of deleted comment made by banned user.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

People are strawmanning arguments that Vlad won't be good because he's hyped because so was Byron Buxton.

 

Very different player. 

 

They are wrong. Vlad is a star, this is a generational type bat. 

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Prospects obviously do fail.  For any number of various reasons.

 

Claiming that minor league numbers are not predictive of major league success is just silly tho.

 

There is literally nothing about his bat at this stage that doesn't scream impact major leaguer.

 

 

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2 hours ago, treat88 said:

Prospects obviously do fail.  For any number of various reasons.

 

Claiming that minor league numbers are not predictive of major league success is just silly tho.

 

There is literally nothing about his bat at this stage that doesn't scream impact major leaguer.

 

 

 Same could be said of hundreds of other minor league players who crush milb ball and yet can't hit major league pitching. You can't just assume it will all work out when the rate of failure on all prospects is astronomically high. 

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

 Same could be said of hundreds of other minor league players who crush milb ball and yet can't hit major league pitching. You can't just assume it will all work out when the rate of failure on all prospects is astronomically high. 

K. You can paint the board strokes. Most people are looking at context of being a teenager that made in AAA and holding his own.

 

People use K%, ISO, and age to level as semi-reliable indicators that increase odd. Low K% alone doesn't do it all the time, High ISO either..but all 3 factors give him higher odds of success than the mean for prospects. He could still flop. Nothing gives 100% odds, just increases.

 

Its highly unlikely a guy can make it to AAA as a teenager unless you are capable of making adjustments. Especially for a guy who's not getting promotions for his defense.

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From Fangraphs:

 

"I went back and looked at the best projections ZiPS has ever given a position player prospect. The previous highs were Mike Trout, Kris Bryant, and Ronald Acuña. Vladito’s projections are better than any of those. The only player in his top 10 offensive comps that wasn’t a perennial All-Star is Bob Bailey. When I ran Vlad’s projections earlier this year for the Trade Value series, I literally went in and made sure something wasn’t broken."

 

To suggest minor league numbers dont matter is just wrong.

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They matter to an extent.  But you cannot base literally a thing on them and for sure be able to look at it and be like, 'Well, he's 100% a star." That's a flawed system.  Until he makes the major leagues and hits off a guy anywhere NEAR Chris Sale's level you cannot say he will for sure have any success.  There are a TON of top prospects who are known as can't miss prospects who completely and totally fail.  Safe picks that hit or pitch in the minors who once they make the majors just can't readjust.  Just recently, look at the baseball prospectus prospect list from 2016.  Yes Seager was a hit, but Buxton was 2, Giolito was 3, JP Crawford was 4, then it goes Mazara, Urias, Moncada, then Gallo.  None are anywhere near where they were supposed to be in the MLB with those ratings.  Until he's up and playing, you literally cannot guess what he can and cannot do.  Prospects literally miss more than they hit when it comes to players.  Even having no names show up and dominate.  Goldschmidt wasn't well known when he first came up, Judge was supposed to have a major hole in his swing, Chris Sale was even supposed to be majorly injury prone because of his windup.  It's all a bunch of bull and fans eat it up.

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Seriously, top guys don't pan out all the time.  Brandon Wood? Dominic Brown? Jesus Montero? Hee-Seop Choi? Casey Kotchman?Joel Guzman? Daric Barton? Delmon Young? Jeremy Hermida? Travis Snider? Andy LaRoche? All were near the top of prospect lists, most for several years, none ended up being what they were supposed to be.

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I agree that minor league pitchers is much more of a guessing game than hitters. In fact the trend is for top prospects to improve at the major league level since MLB pitching is more in the strike zone. I also agree that strikeouts is the one minor league stat, that does carry over to the majors for hitters and pitchers. yes prospects fail. Certain organizations also have less success in getting talent ready for the majors. Seattle, Pittsburgh, Reds all draft high yet never seem to develop a game changer or even usable guys. Vlad by every measure is going to be a star starting next year. The Jays will find a way to get him on the field every day. Lourdes, Vlad and Jansen is the future and Biggio and Bichette is not far behind. The Arizona fall league is becoming a joke without decent pitching. 10-9 games daily is intrasquad workout material.

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The only possible quibble with Vlad Jr. is he is mostly a fastball hitter....and an amazing one at that.  I still think he's going to be a perennial all-star, but there is some concern about his short term avg floor if he gets flooded with MLB breaking balls.

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18 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

I agree that minor league pitchers is much more of a guessing game than hitters. In fact the trend is for top prospects to improve at the major league level since MLB pitching is more in the strike zone. I also agree that strikeouts is the one minor league stat, that does carry over to the majors for hitters and pitchers. yes prospects fail. Certain organizations also have less success in getting talent ready for the majors. Seattle, Pittsburgh, Reds all draft high yet never seem to develop a game changer or even usable guys. Vlad by every measure is going to be a star starting next year. The Jays will find a way to get him on the field every day. Lourdes, Vlad and Jansen is the future and Biggio and Bichette is not far behind. The Arizona fall league is becoming a joke without decent pitching. 10-9 games daily is intrasquad workout material.

Name for me the last top batting Jays prospect that panned out? Snider?  Nope.  D'arnaud?  Nope.  They are a franchise recently well known for their top hitting prospects doing next to nothing at the major league level.

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11 hours ago, Magoo said:

The only possible quibble with Vlad Jr. is he is mostly a fastball hitter....and an amazing one at that.  I still think he's going to be a perennial all-star, but there is some concern about his short term avg floor if he gets flooded with MLB breaking balls.

 

Vlad has been lauded for his historically good batting eye, is your take based on any data or just a big assumption you are making on the quality of breaking balls in the minors? To call vladdy a fastball hitter is underselling him big time

Edited by NoHablaIngles

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11 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Name for me the last top batting Jays prospect that panned out? Snider?  Nope.  D'arnaud?  Nope.  They are a franchise recently well known for their top hitting prospects doing next to nothing at the major league level.

 

How is that relevant? Lots of teams aren't known for developing prospects then stumble onto Mike Trout. 

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11 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Name for me the last top batting Jays prospect that panned out? Snider?  Nope.  D'arnaud?  Nope.  They are a franchise recently well known for their top hitting prospects doing next to nothing at the major league level.

 

This is a terrible argument 

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On 10/16/2018 at 4:34 AM, daynlokki said:

Seriously, top guys don't pan out all the time.  Brandon Wood? Dominic Brown? Jesus Montero? Hee-Seop Choi? Casey Kotchman?Joel Guzman? Daric Barton? Delmon Young? Jeremy Hermida? Travis Snider? Andy LaRoche? All were near the top of prospect lists, most for several years, none ended up being what they were supposed to be.

 

You can even expand this to guys who may not have been as highly lauded but put up crooked MiLB numbers. A guy like Mike Moustakas comes to mind. His last season of MiLB ball was 118 games, 41 2B, 36 HR, 94 R, 124 RBI, 34 BB, 67 K, .311 BA/.369 OBP/.630 SLG. 

I'm not saying those are Vlad type #'s. But the low K rate/high power ceiling was a tantalizing combo. 

 

Brandon Belt is another. Eric Hosmer yet another. The guys have turned out to be fine major leaguers, but there were signs they could be the next franchise icon but were mostly a disappointment for anyone who expected superstardom. 

 

Then you have a guy like Arenado who wasn't a top 50 prospect ever being one of the best bats in the majors, or Goldy who I think was never top 100. 

 

We all have to remember the prospect lists are pretty arbitrary. Your ranking can vary wildly based on hype/age/past performance/measurables/etc. If Arenado (stupidly) spent another year in the minors he'd have been a top 10 spec. But since he got the call and stuck, he was never a top 50 prospect. 

 

Vlads success or lack of can in no way be predicted by his "prospect ranking" anymore than it can by extrapolating minor league #'s. So many variables. And most of us aren't privvy to a real scouting report, but more or less a regurgitation of what someone else thinks, or some selective stats we find on baseball reference. 

 

I am off the Vlad hype train because it's rolling too fast for me. I think the dude will be a great major leaguer but when I see someone say he's a top 10 pick in a dynasty league I roll my eyes and move on. 

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On 10/16/2018 at 1:34 AM, daynlokki said:

Seriously, top guys don't pan out all the time.  Brandon Wood? Dominic Brown? Jesus Montero? Hee-Seop Choi? Casey Kotchman?Joel Guzman? Daric Barton? Delmon Young? Jeremy Hermida? Travis Snider? Andy LaRoche? All were near the top of prospect lists, most for several years, none ended up being what they were supposed to be.

 

What's the point of even participating in prospect discussion if none of it matters to you and every hitter could be Casey Kotchman until they have great stats against Chris Sale?

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I don't think a single person doesn't recognize that all prospects come with risk.

 

Amongst prospects, given that they are all risky, Vlad carries about as minimal amount of risk as a prospect can IMO

 

I'm just not sure what the actionable advice for fantasy purposes here is daynlokki.  Is it, don't count on Vlad to be a HoF performer right away?  Well sure.  Don't count on Vlad to be a impact contributor right away?  Again, well sure.  Don't count on Vlad to ever be an impact performer? Possible.  Vlad won't be more than a league average talent?  To each their own I guess.  Don't bother rostering him, he's a Jay and his defense will always hold him back?  I can't buy that.

 

Other than urging caution about all prospects in general, which I agree with, what is it that you are forecasting for Vlad and when.  Are you arguing it is more likely than not that he will bust ala the names you mention?

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Think the key thing with prospects is probability of success.  Taking into consideration their prospect ceiling/general profile and stats at specific levels and make judgment calls.  Of course not every prospect pans out, I'm pretty sure EVERY prospect hound knows that.  You're really here to bestow that wisdom upon us?

 

Do I think it's nuts to take Vlad as one of the first 30 players in a dynasty league?  No.  Would I do it?  Probably depends on my mood when it's my time to pick.

 

For me, as high as you can go without a single MLB AB is a top 30ish dynasty player.  I do think Vlad is an exception to the rule where I wouldn't be surprised if someone took him in the top 15-20. 

 

If you want to burn a pick and take him over a guy like Bregman, be my guest.  :)  

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7 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

 

How is that relevant? Lots of teams aren't known for developing prospects then stumble onto Mike Trout. 

Read the quoted post from that lol.

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7 hours ago, NoHablaIngles said:

 

This is a terrible argument 

How is it a terrible argument?  Some teams just cannot develop more than AAAA guys.  Snider and D'arnaud were both lauded as franchise saving, can't miss prospects by the same organization who is developing Vlad Jr.  Both guys hit extremely well, albeit not at the level as Vlad, in the minors.  Both completely and totally flamed out in the majors.  Just because you don't LIKE the connotation, doesn't mean that it's a terrible argument.  A terrible argument is when you have zero facts for anything and so just post that an argument is terrible.

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