Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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42 minutes ago, hypeiz4real said:

Think the key thing with prospects is probability of success.  Taking into consideration their prospect ceiling/general profile and stats at specific levels and make judgment calls.  Of course not every prospect pans out, I'm pretty sure EVERY prospect hound knows that.  You're really here to bestow that wisdom upon us?

 

Do I think it's nuts to take Vlad as one of the first 30 players in a dynasty league?  No.  Would I do it?  Probably depends on my mood when it's my time to pick.

 

For me, as high as you can go without a single MLB AB is a top 30ish dynasty player.  I do think Vlad is an exception to the rule where I wouldn't be surprised if someone took him in the top 15-20. 

 

If you want to burn a pick and take him over a guy like Bregman, be my guest.  :)  

Depends on the dynasty and the league settings.  If there isn't a DH or UTIL spot, I wouldn't take him that early, as he won't be in the field for long in the majors and will easily lose position ability.  Even if he's a 1b his value drops dramatically.

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On 10/15/2018 at 10:29 AM, NoHablaIngles said:

 

They are wrong. Vlad is a star, this is a generational type bat. 

So was Buxton AND Moncada lmao.  

 

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57 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Depends on the dynasty and the league settings.  If there isn't a DH or UTIL spot, I wouldn't take him that early, as he won't be in the field for long in the majors and will easily lose position ability.  Even if he's a 1b his value drops dramatically.

 

3b was deeper this year than 1st. Last year 1b was deeper than 3rd. Both years it was kind of close. To say it dramatically drops the value is not true in the slightest. 

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21 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

3b was deeper this year than 1st. Last year 1b was deeper than 3rd. Both years it was kind of close. To say it dramatically drops the value is not true in the slightest. 

Just because you don't think it's true doesn't mean it actually isn't.  1b is usually the deeper of the positions.  Aguilar is currently the 11th 1B lol, and Vlad currently doesn't have that level of power.  He's still more of a doubles hitter.

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16 1b over 20 hrs, 13 at 3b and that's including Profar and Carpenter who is eligible at both 1b and 3b.

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12 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Just because you don't think it's true doesn't mean it actually isn't.  1b is usually the deeper of the positions.  Aguilar is currently the 11th 1B lol, and Vlad currently doesn't have that level of power.  He's still more of a doubles hitter.

 

Aguilar was actually the 5th best 1b in standard categories.  Changing the argument to who has more power right at this second between Aguilar and Vlad is quite the pivot and rather irrelevant from your questionable statement that Vlad would lose tremendous value if he was only 1b (which is years away and not certain)

 

http://games.espn.com/flb/playerrater?slotCategoryId=1

 

Check the player rater for yourself and look at the last two years. Your argument was that if Vlad would lose a ton of value if he moved to 1b. Based on the last two years, thats unequivocally a terrible point. Not even debatable.

 

1b has become a lot more shallow because it's a position that's most often to be platooned, making the every day 1b that are good fewer in between than before. Overall the positions are quite similar in depth. Not remotely debatable either.  Terrible take. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Aguilar was actually the 5th best 1b in standard categories.  Changing the argument to who has more power right at this second between Aguilar and Vlad is quite the pivot and rather irrelevant from your questionable statement that Vlad would lose tremendous value if he was only 1b (which is years away and not certain)

 

http://games.espn.com/flb/playerrater?slotCategoryId=1

 

Check the player rater for yourself and look at the last two years. Your argument was that if Vlad would lose a ton of value if he moved to 1b. Based on the last two years, thats unequivocally a terrible point. Not even debatable.

 

1b has become a lot more shallow because it's a position that's most often to be platooned, making the every day 1b that are good fewer in between than before. Overall the positions are quite similar in depth. Not remotely debatable either. 

You are quoting the player rater for ESPN standard leagues lmao?  Yes, 5 total stats in AVR, HR, RBI, R, and SB are going to give you a VERY clear look at who is the better player lmao.  2 of those are team dependent and another isn't a stat very many 1b ever get, therefore automatically putting that position at a disadvantage.  Of course you would use that for stats instead of you know, ACTUAL stats, because those show a complete bias for you lol.

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9 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

You are quoting the player rater for ESPN standard leagues lmao?  Yes, 5 total stats in AVR, HR, RBI, R, and SB are going to give you a VERY clear look at who is the better player lmao.  2 of those are team dependent and another isn't a stat very many 1b ever get, therefore automatically putting that position at a disadvantage.  Of course you would use that for stats instead of you know, ACTUAL stats, because those show a complete bias for you lol.

 

Using "lmao" and "lol" in your posts if you want, doesn't make anything you say true. It detracts if anything. :(

 

You might want to read @tonycpsu post here about the player rater. It's a good tool to use about what values player delivered for that season. It's often not predicative but if you're basing value for 5 categories production for the given year, it sure does give you an idea of who did what.  Math.

 

 

7 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Based on your PR, SS has the most fantasy depth outside of OF lmao.

 

ESPN is set for 5 OF leagues and MI/CI.  SS was very deep last season. It's not really a debatable point. If youre basing positional eligibility depth based on 2010 narratives, you're doing it wrong. 

 

Saying the difference between a player being 1b or 3b would dramatically drop their value is a terrible take based off the last two seasons. I see no reason that changes dramatically this next year either. If Vlad is DH only, then his value would drop some.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Also, if you want a laugh, look at the ZIPS projections for 2019 for Vlad on rotochamp.  453 abs, 60 runs, 14 hrs, 60 rbis, 8 sb (how?), .247 average, .320 obp, .400 slugging. It's weird that fangraphs and their ZIPS projection is completely and totally different.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Using "lmao" and "lol" in your posts if you want, doesn't make anything you say true. It detracts if anything.

 

You might want to read @tonycpsu post here about the player rater. It's a good tool to use about what values player delivered for that season. It's often not predicative but if you're basing value for 5 categories production for the given year, it sure does give you an idea of who did what.  Math.

 

 

 

ESPN is set for 5 OF leagues and MI/CI.  SS was very deep last season. It's not really a debatable point. If youre basing positional elligibity depth based on 2010 narratives, you're doing it wrong. 

 

Saying the difference between a player being 1b or 3b would dramatically drop their value is a terrible take based off the last two seasons. I see no reason that changes dramatically this next year either. If Vlad is DH only, then his value would drop some.

Basing someone's value off 5 total categories is asinine.  Also, by using that you are falling for confirmation bias.  PR on ESPN is also horrendously flawed.  There was a post awhile back about how a player with the same stats at two different positions got a different rating, even though it's ONLY supposed to be based of those 5 starting categories.

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2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Basing someone's value off 5 total categories is asinine.

 

maxresdefault.jpg

 

 

 

I mean, this is a fantasy message board. Using the standard categories. Sure seems like a good way to rate players. 

 

 

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Also, using LOL or LMAO doesn't detract a thing.  That'd be like saying you reacting to my posts detracts from yours... it doesn't and is in essence the exact... same... thing...

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

maxresdefault.jpg

 

 

 

I mean, this is a fantasy message board. Using the standard categories. Sure seems like a good way to rate players. 

 

 

Well, a standard league is also a redraft, so you accounting for that in your stats?  He drops WAAAAAAAY down in a redraft league.  Majority of leagues you see nowadays aren't 5x5 anyways.  So to only use those 5 stats would be a straw man argument.

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If you use standard PR for who does and does not have value, then I know why you have the viewpoints you do.

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3 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Well, a standard league is also a redraft, so you accounting for that in your stats?  He drops WAAAAAAAY down in a redraft league.  Majority of leagues you see nowadays aren't 5x5 anyways.  So to only use those 5 stats would be a straw man argument.

 

Again, youre changing the argument. Are we talking about Vlad's value in 2019 only, his dynasty value, or whether dropping from 3b position elligibitity to 3b in a few years will destroy his value?

 

Dynasty Asset: High/Elite

Redraft: Value Next year: Lots of risk. I certainly wouldn't bet a lot of money on being a top 50 player next year.

Positional Eligibility Value Change from 3b to 1b: Almost none. Easily the worst take. 

 

 

2 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

If you use standard PR for who does and does not have value, then I know why you have the viewpoints you do.

 

Strawman is Strawman. 

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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Again, youre changing the argument. Are we talking about Vlad's value in 2019 only, his dynasty value, or whether dropping from 3b position elligibitity to 3b in a few years will destroy his value?

 

Dynasty Asset: High/Elite

Redraft: Value Next year: Lots of risk. I certainly wouldn't bet a lot of money on being a top 50 player next year.

Positional Eligibility Value Change from 3b to 1b: Almost none. Easily the worst take. 

 

 

 

Strawman is Strawman. 

 What if I told you every single 5x5 player rarer from all the main sites were different. Think about that for a second. You are making an argument about a position based off one set of flawed statistics. Yet all those main sites use the same 5x5 for standard categories... How exactly is that data reliable when it is different on different sites even though the stats are the EXACT same. Fangraphs even wrote about this about 10 years ago. Each site uses different stats for a standard deviation which leads to a large difference. Yet you think the 5x5 ESPN is the gospel. Espn isn't even the leader in fantasy sports anymore after their changes the last few years. 10 leagues I was in between all sports left espn for different sites lol. 

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5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

 What if I told you every single 5x5 player rarer from all the main sites were different. Think about that for a second. You are making an argument about a position based off one set of flawed statistics. Yet all those main sites use the same 5x5 for standard categories... How exactly is that data reliable when it is different on different sites even though the stats are the EXACT same. Fangraphs even wrote about this about 10 years ago. Each site uses different stats for a standard deviation which leads to a large difference. Yet you think the 5x5 ESPN is the gospel. Espn isn't even the leader in fantasy sports anymore after their changes the last few years. 10 leagues I was in between all sports left espn for different sites lol. 

 

That is why I asked you to read the discussion and Tony's post from that thread. It explains all of that.  I have it bookmarked for when people have misinformed takes on the ESPN PR and what it's use is and why it's better than most out there (while not perfect)

 

It's a great read!

Edited by brockpapersizer

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I'm not going to weigh in on the underlying dispute here as it appears that both sides abandoned a presumption of good faith many pages ago, but to the extent that my post on player raters has any bearing in this discussion: Yahoo's player rater had a 0.84 correlation with ESPN's player rater for the 2017 season.  I haven't run any of the same numbers for 2018, but I'd imagine the results are similar, with the same tendencies / biases  I noted in that thread.

 

I strongly disagree with the position that because the player raters disagree a bit (0.84 is actually a pretty strong correlation considering the number of different things you have to account for) that they can't be useful at all for making an argument about player values.  You just have to be careful how you do it, and aware of the biases of each site's rankings.

 

One thing I can say is that I found no evidence of a positional bias in the ESPN or Yahoo player raters, so I'd like to see a cite for that claim.  I can *maybe* see the case for a positional adjustment for strength at weaker positions or for multi-position flexibility, but that would be highly contingent on the format, how deep the pools in those positions are each year, etc. and in all likelihood would probably take away from the value of the ranking algorithm rather than enhance it.

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12 hours ago, daynlokki said:

So was Buxton AND Moncada lmao.  

So was Machado, Trout, Harper, Bryant, Bregman, Benintendi, and others. Oh, and "lmao" (if I "laugh" at you, it makes what you say sound more incredulous and makes me more right, amirite?)

 

11 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Just because you don't think it's true doesn't mean it actually isn't.  1b is usually the deeper of the positions.  Aguilar is currently the 11th 1B lol, and Vlad currently doesn't have that level of power.  He's still more of a doubles hitter.

That's not true. There is truth and there is opinion. Anyone who has played this game for long knows how volatile every position is year to year. 1B is traditionally deep due to the type of players that play there, but in any given year OF, 3B, or SS is as deep. 2B is the only one that really never catches up (or catcher, of course). 

 

10 hours ago, daynlokki said:

You are quoting the player rater for ESPN standard leagues lmao?  Yes, 5 total stats in AVR, HR, RBI, R, and SB are going to give you a VERY clear look at who is the better player lmao.  2 of those are team dependent and another isn't a stat very many 1b ever get, therefore automatically putting that position at a disadvantage.  Of course you would use that for stats instead of you know, ACTUAL stats, because those show a complete bias for you lol.

Yeah, quoting an unbiased source that compiles stats to give a player a generalized "ranking." LOL WHAT A TERRIBLE IDEA. How many guys are highly ranked on the player rater but aren't good fantasy players? News flash, if a dude has a high average and high HR/RBI/R/SB totals he's going to have nice other stats and carry value in your league. Changing format from 5x5 to fantasy points or 6x6 doesn't wildly change the rankings unless you use K or BB (or both), OBP or OPS instead of average, or do something dumb like make errors, put outs, or assists a cat. If a guy is on a bad team and his R/RBI totals suffer it affects his fantasy value in all formats. 


The #12 1B on the player rater (ESPN) was Yuli Gurriel (5.08). The #12 3B was Matt Chapman (5.39). FWIW : Gurriel is also 3B eligible,and comes in 2 spots behind Chapman. 

 

In 2017 the #12 1B was Marwin Gonzalez (6.32). Scooter Gennett was the #12 3B (6.27). Marwin was also 3B eligible and came in 1 spot ahead of Gennett. That would show 1B is deeper, but if you went 13 spots it flips back to 3B being deeper. What's interesting is Yuli was eligible at both positions last year and was 18th at both positions on the player rater. They are close year to year. 

 

@brockpapersizer knows his stuff on here. You insinuating to the contrary says more about you than it does about him. You are using the lack of success about Blue Jays prospects or other top prospects in general to make your argument about vlad. That makes absolutely no sense. What Travis Snider or D'Arnaud did or didn't do in no way has anything to do with what Vlad will or will not do. That's easily one of the worst arguments I've ever heard on here. Everyone here is well educated on the rate at which prospects fail or don't live up to the hype. We see it constantly. Something else we see constantly? People who think that because a top prospect they liked failed then most other top prospects will likely fail too. 

 

I have spent several posts talking about how I believe people are hyping Vlad too much in general. Yes, Buxton was a top prospect but it was in part due to being a 5 tool guy, not just a slugger. Yes, Moncada was a top prospect but due in part to his crazy high power/speed combo with a strong OBP (at a weak position, for a strong parent club before being traded, and with a real lack of other Vlad type bats to compete for the top spot). You also have to realize those two are 23 and 24 years old. How are we to know they don't put it together after having some injuries and getting acclimated to the bigs? How are we to know if Vlad won't come up and Ryan Braun or Albert Pujols the league? We don't. None of us "KNOW" anything, but make educated guesses based on the information we have available relating to Vlad. 

 

Educated guesses on what Vlad will do just because Travis Snider didn't pan out aren't really all that educated, me thinks. 

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Not even posts I was a part of but when a poster says "I think Vlad is a generational talent" a response like "So was Buxton and Moncada LOL" make very little sense unless that original poster also said the same thing about Buxton and Moncada. I'm not sure how someone else's opinion on Buxton and Moncada 2 years ago is relevant to someone else discussing Vlad.  You can probably find a quote by some random person about any #1 prospect being a generational talent. That doesn't make that a consensus opinion nor does it have anything to do with separate analysis about Vlad.

 

I do not think Buxton and Moncada are generational talents, but I wouldn't write off their careers either.  Neither are even 25. 

 

I'm willing to concede that I'm unsure of how Vlad's defense will progress in the majors. He could end up being a Corner OF, 3b, 1b, or DH.  If he's the elite hitter over time than many think he will be, it won't have much effect on his fantasy value. Surely DH would be non ideal, but I think we are years away from that, and if he's a 30-300 hitter, it's not that big of a deal ultimately.

 

Like many posters have said, everyone is aware that prospects aren't fool proof. I'd be pretty shocked if Vlad wasn't at least a good hitter in the majors. 

 

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28 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Not even posts I was a part of but when a poster says "I think Vlad is a generational talent" a response like "So was Buxton and Moncada LOL" make very little sense unless that original poster also said the same thing about Buxton and Moncada. I'm not sure how someone else's opinion on Buxton and Moncada 2 years ago is relevant to someone else discussing Vlad.  You can probably find a quote by some random person about any #1 prospect being a generational talent. That doesn't make that a consensus opinion nor does it have anything to do with separate analysis about Vlad.

 

I do not think Buxton and Moncada are generational talents, but I wouldn't write off their careers either.  Neither are even 25. 

 

I'm willing to concede that I'm unsure of how Vlad's defense will progress in the majors. He could end up being a Corner OF, 3b, 1b, or DH.  If he's the elite hitter over time than many think he will be, it won't have much effect on his fantasy value. Surely DH would be non ideal, but I think we are years away from that, and if he's a 30-300 hitter, it's not that big of a deal ultimately.

 

Like many posters have said, everyone is aware that prospects aren't fool proof. I'd be pretty shocked if Vlad wasn't at least a good hitter in the majors. 

 

I agree with this. I think Vlad has a Mike Moustakas floor and a Albert Pujols in his prime ceiling. Anything in between will be no shock, anything outside of that would stun me. 

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The last time i can remember a teenage hitter that was hyped so hard on his pure hitting ability that truly fell flat was Jesus Montero. 

 

Vlads odds of success are still higher. As there are more example of the high minors teenagers sticking than of completely busting.

 

2006-2017 "hits"

McCutchen , J. Upton, Andrus, Freeman, Stanton, Heyward, S. Castro, Harper, Trout, Bogarts, Machado, Odor, Lindor, Acuna, Mazara, Albies, Soto

 

Misses

F. Martinez, J. Tabata, J. Montero, R. Tejada, M. Domingez

 

TBAs

J. Bauers, A. Mondesi, J Profar

 

2018 Teenagers:

Tatis Jr, I. Parades, K. Ruiz, A. Giminez, C. Pache

 

His hitting has been better than pretty all of these guys as they were at this stage in their careers.

 

 

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