Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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If they move him to 1b its makes his draft position even higher, 1b is not very deep right now, there's Freeman, Goldy and Rizzo i guess as the top 3 then it's a crapshoot after that, Olsen could get better, How good can Voight be? Bellinger fell off quite a bit, Muncy was good but will he sit against lefties. Was Carp's year a one off or is he back? and what the hell happened to Votto? EE was his usual self but how much does he have left? and Abreu looks to be losing it as well. Who knows about Miggy as well, Smoak was ok

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23 hours ago, azeri98 said:

If they move him to 1b its makes his draft position even higher, 1b is not very deep right now, there's Freeman, Goldy and Rizzo i guess as the top 3 then it's a crapshoot after that, Olsen could get better, How good can Voight be? Bellinger fell off quite a bit, Muncy was good but will he sit against lefties. Was Carp's year a one off or is he back? and what the hell happened to Votto? EE was his usual self but how much does he have left? and Abreu looks to be losing it as well. Who knows about Miggy as well, Smoak was ok

 

Been trying to say this. In deeper leaguers it's worse because 1b is probably the most platooned position besides of, and a team still has 3 outfielders and usually one at most is platooned. Can't think of any current 3b platoons. Maybe whoever signs freese.

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Man, I can't even begin to imagine what this guys's aDP will get to if he rakes (as I expect) in Spring Training. Acuna capped out at around the 7th round of a 12 teamer as I recall and went even earlier in a handful of drafts I participated in. One has to figure Vlad Jr. gets even more love.

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5 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

Man, I can't even begin to imagine what this guys's aDP will get to if he rakes (as I expect) in Spring Training. Acuna capped out at around the 7th round of a 12 teamer as I recall and went even earlier in a handful of drafts I participated in. One has to figure Vlad Jr. gets even more love.

 

I think valuing Vlad over Acuna in their rookie seasons might be a mistake. I think Vlad can hit. I think even if it doesn't click, he wont be a BA drain. I think he's still growing into game power. He hit 20 bombs in 400 PA last year which is good, but it's still the minors and that number doesn't jump off the chart. Additionally he wont have the speed Acuna does.  

 

Best case scenario for Vlad is he hits 25-30 HR bombs with a good average, I wouldn't expect that as a given in his rookie year. If he hits 20-280 at his age, thats incredibly good, but it's certainly not worth reaching for in 5x5 redraft, especially with so many guys hitting for power. Eugeino Suarez hit 34 bombs last year with a 283 average.  If you told me for certain Suarez was going to repeat or I could have Vlad at the same cost and not know what he does, I'd take Suarez in a heartbeat.  Vlad is going to be an elite asset when he can hit for a very high average and HR total, that's certainly no guarantee in 2019 and without some vlaue in speed to fall back on, it's a risky proposition if you take him as a top 50-60 pick.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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With all this hype I can see him going as early as round 3 in many leagues. Every league and everybody is different but who doesn't want to take that chance on maybe the next best thing? Yes its a gamble.But one I am taking having traded for him in three leagues. I believe he is worth it more than any other player in recent history. Right there with Trout but how many bailed on him after he crapped out in his first shot in the majors. I grabbed Trout right after that and have had him for 6 years in one league. If Vlad pulls a Trout I will go down with the ship and hopefully he rebounds. He is one special player.

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18 minutes ago, motown magic said:

With all this hype I can see him going as early as round 3 in many leagues. Every league and everybody is different but who doesn't want to take that chance on maybe the next best thing? Yes its a gamble.But one I am taking having traded for him in three leagues. I believe he is worth it more than any other player in recent history. Right there with Trout but how many bailed on him after he crapped out in his first shot in the majors. I grabbed Trout right after that and have had him for 6 years in one league. If Vlad pulls a Trout I will go down with the ship and hopefully he rebounds. He is one special player.

 

The idea of Mike Trout has lost a lot of people leagues since 2012.

 

Let us not forget that in 2012 power was considerably down compared to what it is now.

 

Let us not forget that Trout stole 49 bases in 2012, something Vlad has 0% chance of doing (5-10 would be overly optimistic.)

 

Let us not forget that Trout (outside of keeper/dynasty formats) was a late round pick or waiver wire selection.

 

You take away trouts 49 steals, add a few home runs (which is still optimistic for Vlad in his rookie year), add a 3rd round draft price, put it in the context of today's power, and Mike Trout's breakout special year is not nearly as memorable in fantasy. He'd still be really good, borderline great, but that 2012 was something we might never see in fantasy again in terms of price/value. Acuna and Soto were tremendous last year, but don't come close to touching Trout''s 2012.

 

In Dynasty or leagues where you can keep him for multiple years, this analysis obviously changes.

 

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3 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Vlad Jr on streamer projections

 

308/368/511 22 HR 6 steals 550 PA

 

Steamer has him leading the entire league in batting average

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3 hours ago, Gus Chiggins said:

 

Steamer has him leading the entire league in batting average

Which should show you that its flawed. He most likely won't considering he hasn't had pitchers scouting him like the majors or pitchers adjusting to his weaknesses. 

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

 He most likely won't considering he hasn't had pitchers scouting him like the majors or pitchers adjusting to his weaknesses. 

 

Most likely not leading the league in average (which I agree with), puts him squarely in the same boat with every player in the league including Mike Trout and Joey Gallo.

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14 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Most likely not leading the league in average (which I agree with), puts him squarely in the same boat with every player in the league including Mike Trout and Joey Gallo.

 

Hahahah

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On 11/4/2018 at 7:32 PM, Magoo said:

http://clubhousecorner.com/2018/10/13/arizona-fall-league/

 

Good write up on Vlad here by a pro scout.

Pretty good write-up.  Too many scouts try to project him in the future as a pure 3b when his first step is slow, leading to a reduced range at 3B.  His bat is nice, but like they said, weight gain is also an issue and can lead to more problems.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Pretty good write-up.  Too many scouts try to project him in the future as a pure 3b when his first step is slow, leading to a reduced range at 3B.  His bat is nice, but like they said, weight gain is also an issue and can lead to more problems.

 

It's a fantasy message board. Saying the bat is nice is kind of being disingenuous to the purpose here.  I also think just about every article I've ever read on Vlad's future position puts 3b as iffy, so this article is like every single other one.

 

BA Top 10 last week on the Blue Jays said the exact same thing (not quoting because its behind a paywall). 

 

MLB Pipeline current blurb "Retaining his athleticism without becoming too bulky could pose a challenge for Guerrero moving forward, though obviously he has the requisite offensive profile to support a move to first base or left field."

 

Last fangraphs blue jays ranking "Whether Vlad Jr. settles as a fringey third baseman or a first basemen/designated hitter is up for debate, but his easy plus hit and power tools (with ceiling for more) are not and will make his ascent to the big leagues a quick one."

 

Can you provide just one link from a major publisher that says confidently he will play at 3b for his entire career, or even most? You said "too many scouts project him as a future 3b. I have yet to find even one, let alone too many. 

 

Seems like we might be on different internets.

Edited by brockpapersizer

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23 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

It's a fantasy message board. Saying the bat is nice is kind of being disingenuous to the purpose here.  I also think just about every article I've ever read on Vlad's future position puts 3b as iffy, so this article is like every single other one.

 

BA Top 10 last week on the Blue Jays said the exact same thing (not quoting because its behind a paywall). 

 

MLB Pipeline current blurb "Retaining his athleticism without becoming too bulky could pose a challenge for Guerrero moving forward, though obviously he has the requisite offensive profile to support a move to first base or left field."

 

Last fangraphs blue jays ranking "Whether Vlad Jr. settles as a fringey third baseman or a first basemen/designated hitter is up for debate, but his easy plus hit and power tools (with ceiling for more) are not and will make his ascent to the big leagues a quick one."

 

Can you provide just one link from a major publisher that says confidently he will play at 3b for his entire career, or even most? You said "too many scouts project him as a future 3b. I have yet to find even one, let alone too many. 

 

Seems like we might be on different internets.

You really need to troll? Maybe go back and read other scouting reports that i already posted to show how off 'professional' scouts are. I personally know more than one since i have done scouting in the past for a college wooden bat league that has had some big names in it. Hell, one of the athletes j got to play for our team was a finalist for an espy. Another was shane bieber. Have you scouted or do you just spout off other peoples viewpoints and are unable to formulate your own?

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Also this is an Milb forum. Doesnt necessarily mean it has to be fantasy based. Name isnt Milb fantasy forum now is it?

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Have you scouted or do you just spout off other peoples viewpoints and are unable to formulate your own?

 

You complained about too many scouts projecting him as a pure 3b, provide no examples, you were provided multiple examples to the contrary, and now are asking if I'm able to formulate my own opinion?  Literally everyone is saying the same thing about his 3b defense, including you.   If anyone is trolling, it's you.

 

1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Also this is an Milb forum. Doesnt necessarily mean it has to be fantasy based. Name isnt Milb fantasy forum now is it?

 

This is a fantasy website. The purpose of the message board is for milb in regards to fantasy. You can talk about prospects with no fantasy value if you like, but I imagine there won't be much discussion.  Defense is important to talk about, but on this board it's defense as it relates to his fantasy value. If his defense is so bad he can't play anywhere, and thus not accrue fantasy stats, that's important. If his defense shifts him from one position to another, that potentially effects his fantasy value as well, which is why people discuss that. 

 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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36 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

You complained about too many scouts projecting him as a pure 3b, provide no examples, you were provided multiple examples to the contrary, and now are asking if I'm able to formulate my own opinion?  Literally everyone is saying the same thing about his 3b defense, including you.   If anyone is trolling, it's you.

 

 

This is a fantasy website. The purpose of the message board is for milb in regards to fantasy. You can talk about prospects with no fantasy value if you like, but I imagine there won't be much discussion.  Defense is important to talk about, but on this board it's defense as it relates to his fantasy value. If his defense is so bad he can't play anywhere, and thus not accrue fantasy stats, that's important. If his defense shifts him from one position to another, that potentially effects his fantasy value as well, which is why people discuss that. 

 

 

 

I've provided answers... in the past... several times.  You have even quoted some of those answers and now you feel the need to say I have to cite them AGAIN?  That's trolling.  Either you didn't read any of my previous posts and just quote me to stir sh!t or you just didn't understand what you read.  You have also cited SEVERAL times that scouts think he can stick at 3b.  You...  yourself.

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4 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I've provided answers... in the past... several times.  You have even quoted some of those answers and now you feel the need to say I have to cite them AGAIN?  That's trolling.  Either you didn't read any of my previous posts and just quote me to stir sh!t or you just didn't understand what you read.  You have also cited SEVERAL times that scouts think he can stick at 3b.  You...  yourself.

 

I think it's possible, yes. I personally think he stays their for at least a 2-3 years. Nobody is saying that it's without risk and with confidence to be a "pure 3b prospect". Everyone questions whether he can stay at 3rd, me included.  For his fantasy value, I remain unconcerned unless he's DH only which is at minimum a few years away. And if he just becomes Ortiz/Nelson Cruz, I wouldn't be that upset. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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12:29
What shelf life do you have for Vlad Jr. at 3B?
 
Kiley McDaniel
12:30
I'd guess a few years but it's really up to him. If size/position is his top concern, then longer. If Vlad Jr just wants to bang then it might be late-20's/early-30's Miguel Cabrera pretty quickly

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