Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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On 12/22/2018 at 2:55 PM, crotchcrickets said:

would probably be may at the earliest

Toronto gains an extra year after the 1st 11 days of the season pass by. They won't want to be bring him up on the 12th day due to the optics of that so I'd guess we see him around April 20th, give or take a few days. Bryant was promoted on the 17th and Acuna was promoted on the 25th, FWIW. All of this after he rakes in spring training followed by the GM declaring he "needs more seasoning" or "we don't want to rush his development" or "he needs to work on his defense."

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27 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Toronto gains an extra year after the 1st 11 days of the season pass by. They won't want to be bring him up on the 12th day due to the optics of that so I'd guess we see him around April 20th, give or take a few days. Bryant was promoted on the 17th and Acuna was promoted on the 25th, FWIW. All of this after he rakes in spring training followed by the GM (who may also be posting in this thread as daynlokki) declaring he "needs more seasoning" or "we don't want to rush his development" or "he needs to work on his defense."

Ahh..was thinking the cuttoff was some time in may.  thank you for schooling me on that.

 

even better for me!

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Adding to the dilemma, he’s going in the 3rd round in redrafts.  Ahead of guys like Rizzo, Severino, Hoskins, and Marte. Not sure I’ll have him

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On 12/23/2018 at 10:03 AM, meh2 said:

Toronto gains an extra year after the 1st 11 days of the season pass by. They won't want to be bring him up on the 12th day due to the optics of that so I'd guess we see him around April 20th, give or take a few days. Bryant was promoted on the 17th and Acuna was promoted on the 25th, FWIW. All of this after he rakes in spring training followed by the GM (who may also be posting in this thread as daynlokki) declaring he "needs more seasoning" or "we don't want to rush his development" or "he needs to work on his defense."

So you're saying his defense doesn't matter?  Ground ball pitchers, hot corner, nah, defense doesn't mean s---.  Yankees are trying to move on from Andujar because of his horrendous defense, despite amazing offensive returns last season.  Defense DEFINITELY matters in the majors.  For some more than others of course.  That said, if Vlad came up now with no improvement he'd be one of the bottom 10 regulars on defense.  This is coming from a guy who not only scouted college baseball for a wooden bat league but also worked as a GM for that team.  Even then, we still pay attention to defense and other metrics not many casual fans look at.  Probably why I was able to get major league caliber players to play baseball in Longview, WA for years.

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On 12/23/2018 at 10:03 AM, meh2 said:

Toronto gains an extra year after the 1st 11 days of the season pass by. They won't want to be bring him up on the 12th day due to the optics of that so I'd guess we see him around April 20th, give or take a few days. Bryant was promoted on the 17th and Acuna was promoted on the 25th, FWIW. All of this after he rakes in spring training followed by the GM (who may also be posting in this thread as daynlokki) declaring he "needs more seasoning" or "we don't want to rush his development" or "he needs to work on his defense."

 

3 hours ago, daynlokki said:

So you're saying his defense doesn't matter?  Ground ball pitchers, hot corner, nah, defense doesn't mean s---.  Yankees are trying to move on from Andujar because of his horrendous defense, despite amazing offensive returns last season.  Defense DEFINITELY matters in the majors

 

 

I'm not sure the person you are quoting ever said defense doesn't matter.

 

Also not sure the Yankees are trying hard to move on from Andjuar, just made him available, perhaps knowing they could turn Andjuar and his 5 controlled years for pitching and sign Machado. Andjuar's defense was bad last year. Per fangraphs, even including that, he was worth 21 million bucks and cost the league minimum. Seems pretty valuable. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

 

I'm not sure the person you are quoting ever said defense doesn't matter.

 

Also not sure the Yankees are trying hard to move on from Andjuar, just made him available, perhaps knowing they could turn Andjuar and his 5 controlled years for pitching and sign Machado. Andjuar's defense was bad last year. Per fangraphs, even including that, he was worth 21 million bucks and cost the league minimum. Seems pretty valuable. 

Not saying a lack of defense doesn't have value.  I mean, Nelson Cruz just got 14.3M and can't play a lick of defense.  Let me know when Vlad hits 40 hrs a year first though.  Until then, his defense definitely matters for value.  Prospects can hit at every single point then not hit in the majors.  Happens literally all the time.  Even number 1s.

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9 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Not saying a lack of defense doesn't have value.  I mean, Nelson Cruz just got 14.3M and can't play a lick of defense.  Let me know when Vlad hits 40 hrs a year first though.  Until then, his defense definitely matters for value.  Prospects can hit at every single point then not hit in the majors.  Happens literally all the time.  Even number 1s.

 

Are you just ignoring the fact that Andjuar was worth over 20 million dollars last year despite playing negative defense? Even if you don't take fangraphs valuations exactly how they are, I don't believe the true number is going to be too far off.  Andjuar did that even going well less than 40 bombs. Having Andjuar at his curren state cost controlled over the next 5 seasons is incredibly valuable, of course it would be a significant amount more if he was a plus defender. 

 

By WRC+ Andjuar was the 30th best hitter in the entire league last year.  The Yankees IMO are trying to sell high because they feel his value might be at an all time high and they could fill a significant pitching need and replace Andjuar via free agency. I don't think they are dying to get rid of him, only if it makes sense. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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Added coincidence, but the Blue Jays have FOUR kids of former big league players, wonder if they add in blood lines to their scouting profile.

 

Vladdy Jr

Bo Bichette

Griffin Conine

Cavan Biggio

 

All project as very good to elite prospects. 

 

Blue Jays have some tantalizing hitting talent on their farm, though I am less impressed with their pitching prospects. In fact, unimpressed, most look like bottom rotation filler, and the one with the most upside, Pearson, has all kinds of red flags on him despite his electric fastball. I think he'll end up in their pen at some point. 

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42 minutes ago, kwolf68 said:

 

Blue Jays have some tantalizing hitting talent on their farm, though I am less impressed with their pitching prospects. In fact, unimpressed, most look like bottom rotation filler, and the one with the most upside, Pearson, has all kinds of red flags on him despite his electric fastball. I think he'll end up in their pen at some point. 

 

Well it's pretty easy to be less impressed with their pitching prospects when they have the #1 overall prospect whose a hitter as well as another top 10 overall hitter.

 

Heard a lot of scouts say Pearson is definitely a starter, he's a big bodied protypical starter.  His last injury was pretty flukey. If he keeps getting hurt, maybe it eventually makes sense to put him in the pen, but I kinda think if he gets hurt that often it wont matter and he wont make it, like Kyle Zimmer.  He has a starter's repetoire, I feel pretty good about his starter's chances health permitting. 

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16 hours ago, daynlokki said:

So you're saying his defense doesn't matter?  Ground ball pitchers, hot corner, nah, defense doesn't mean s---.  Yankees are trying to move on from Andujar because of his horrendous defense, despite amazing offensive returns last season.  Defense DEFINITELY matters in the majors.  For some more than others of course.  That said, if Vlad came up now with no improvement he'd be one of the bottom 10 regulars on defense.  This is coming from a guy who not only scouted college baseball for a wooden bat league but also worked as a GM for that team.  Even then, we still pay attention to defense and other metrics not many casual fans look at.  Probably why I was able to get major league caliber players to play baseball in Longview, WA for years.

Give it a break. I never said defense doesn't matter and I'm sick of seeing you constantly drive this discussion on it. This is a fantasy website. All owners really care about is his fantasy stats. Yes, he's probably going to be a below average defender at 3rd base. no one is arguing that with you, so please stop. 

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14 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Give it a break. I never said defense doesn't matter and I'm sick of seeing you constantly drive this discussion on it. This is a fantasy website. All owners really care about is his fantasy stats. Yes, he's probably going to be a below average defender at 3rd base. no one is arguing that with you, so please stop. 

Constantly drive the discussion... You realize my last post was November 7th correct.  You must really learn the definition of certain words like 'constantly'.  You are the one who posted about the GM saying he would need more seasoning for defense.  Fact is, that's a correct assumption considering he's one of the worst defenders in the minor leagues currently.  Everyone raves about his offense without realizing that playing bad defense in the majors will also effect that.  Players get in their own heads over defense and then slump offensively all the time.  That's one of the reasons why it's so hard to change positions at the majors.

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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Are you just ignoring the fact that Andjuar was worth over 20 million dollars last year despite playing negative defense? Even if you don't take fangraphs valuations exactly how they are, I don't believe the true number is going to be too far off.  Andjuar did that even going well less than 40 bombs. Having Andjuar at his curren state cost controlled over the next 5 seasons is incredibly valuable, of course it would be a significant amount more if he was a plus defender. 

 

By WRC+ Andjuar was the 30th best hitter in the entire league last year.  The Yankees IMO are trying to sell high because they feel his value might be at an all time high and they could fill a significant pitching need and replace Andjuar via free agency. I don't think they are dying to get rid of him, only if it makes sense. 

Ya, Andujar was worth 21M based on his WAR last year.  He was also tied for 68th overall in WAR which is pretty nice.  His defense is actually better than Vlad's though is the problem for me. Peraza was also worth the same for WAR.

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5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Constantly drive the discussion... You realize my last post was November 7th correct.  You must really learn the definition of certain words like 'constantly'.  You are the one who posted about the GM saying he would need more seasoning for defense.  Fact is, that's a correct assumption considering he's one of the worst defenders in the minor leagues currently.  Everyone raves about his offense without realizing that playing bad defense in the majors will also effect that.  Players get in their own heads over defense and then slump offensively all the time.  That's one of the reasons why it's so hard to change positions at the majors.

Enough already with the defense. If you actually want to contribute your first relevant post to his fantasy outlook, how about you tell me when you think his call up date will be. After that, how about telling me what you think his projections for 2019 look like (and I’m not talking about DRS or UZR rating). After that tell me what round you think he’ll be drafted in redrafts and what round you’ll be targeting him. And finally, please give us your opinion on where you think he should be drafted in startup dynasty leagues. If you can answer these you’ll finally be posting something useful in this thread.

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[Reluctantly stepping in here to clarify a couple of things from a site rules perspective.  While this is first and foremost a forum for discussing fantasy, a discussion of a player's real-life value to the team is certainly within the bounds of discussion here.  With that said, if all you're here to do is relentlessly drive home the same point about suspect defense -- a point that I don't see a lot of people here pushing back on -- there comes a time when we have to ask you to bring something new to the table or agree to disagree.  There's a lot to talk about in Vlad's game, and a lot of other players to talk about.  We can't have the thread repeatedly circling back to the same dynamic with the same principals arguing over the same unanswerable questions -- that's not informing or entertaining anyone.]

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yea this is a fantasy board.  vlad will be a contributor to fantasy regardless of his position.

 

sure it'd be nice if he stuck at 3B, but we all know that is most likely not happening.

 

i think we can also agree that BJs will not be holding vlad down for a majority of the year because he needs to "work on his defense".  It's strictly future savings and quite frankly it sucks.  itll be fascinating to see how this all plays out and i imagine the players union will be monitoring very closely.

 

pujols was 1B only fantasy player, but he was also a top 1 fantasy player for what...nearly a decade (after losing 3B/OF eligibility)?

 

I think us vlad owners will be happy regardless of position.

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40 minutes ago, meh2 said:

Enough already with the defense. If you actually want to contribute your first relevant post to his fantasy outlook, how about you tell me when you think his call up date will be. After that, how about telling me what you think his projections for 2019 look like (and I’m not talking about DRS or UZR rating). After that tell me what round you think he’ll be drafted in redrafts and what round you’ll be targeting him. And finally, please give us your opinion on where you think he should be drafted in startup dynasty leagues. If you can answer these you’ll finally be posting something useful in this thread.

I've actually already done each and every one of those things.  

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43 minutes ago, crotchcrickets said:

yea this is a fantasy board.  vlad will be a contributor to fantasy regardless of his position.

 

sure it'd be nice if he stuck at 3B, but we all know that is most likely not happening.

 

i think we can also agree that BJs will not be holding vlad down for a majority of the year because he needs to "work on his defense".  It's strictly future savings and quite frankly it sucks.  itll be fascinating to see how this all plays out and i imagine the players union will be monitoring very closely.

 

pujols was 1B only fantasy player, but he was also a top 1 fantasy player for what...nearly a decade (after losing 3B/OF eligibility)?

 

I think us vlad owners will be happy regardless of position.

You COULD be happy.  People always prop up prospects, especially top prospects like they are a sure thing.  They aren't  almost half of the top minor league players can't hit major league pitching.  Pretty much every single pitcher Vlad has faced so far isn't talented enough to make a current MLB roster.

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49 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

  Pretty much every single pitcher Vlad has faced so far isn't talented enough to make a current MLB roster.

 

And he destroyed them as a teenager.

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5 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

And he destroyed them as a teenager.

And I destroyed everyone in the state of Washington as a teenager in track.  Doesn't mean I ran in the Olympics.  

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What if I told you the person with the best single-season MiLB average with .462 in a season in 1978 was a career .252 hitter in the majors?  Minor league numbers really mean very little when almost every pitcher you face in the majors is better than the best minor league pitcher you have faced.  They will have better command, pitches, much better scouting against you, plus in the minors you don't have to adjust your swing or change anything.

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2 minutes ago, motown magic said:

So that’s his fault ? 

He faced the pitchers they put out there . 

Never said it was his fault.  Just said ya, he dominated, against lesser competition.  Would you draft a QB in the first round who dominated in junior college?  I doubt it.  Even though it's not his fault the competition was suspect.

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  So Jack Flaherty is lesser competition ?  Thats who Vlad destroyed with the walk off last spring training .Hmmm. Correct me if I'm wrong but he's probably the Cardinals # 1 starter this coming season. 

At least 2-3 . Never the less a MAJOR league starter.

Edited by motown magic

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12 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

What if I told you the person with the best single-season MiLB average with .462 in a season in 1978 was a career .252 hitter in the majors?  

 

So you're comparing a 21 year old in  rookie ball in 1978, to what vlad did in AA/AAA as an 18 year old in 2018. Seems like a good analogy. Guess what Gary Redus hit the following year when he actually got to A and AA as a  22 year old? 251.  One shy of his career major leaguer average. 

Whatever point you tried to make with this weird random analogy fell quite flat.

 

I still don't even see the point with any of this. I also don't think anyone doesn't acknowledge there is risk with any prospect. Still though, he's the consensus #1  guy and according to you he's one of the worst fielders in the entire minor leagues. Either the scouts disagree or his bat is that ridiculous.  

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 minutes ago, motown magic said:

  So Jack Flaherty is lesser competition ?  Thats who Vlad destroyed with the walk off last spring training .Hmmm. Correct me if I'm wrong but he's probably the Cardinals # 1 starter this coming season. 

At least 2-3 . Never the less a MAJOR league starter.

Do you know what a small sample size is?  One hit vs one starter does not a major leaguer make.  Spring training?  You mean when pitchers are behind hitters and it's MUCH easier to hit?  Pillar hit .438 in ST last year...

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