Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

So you're comparing a 21 year old in  rookie ball in 1978, to what vlad did in AA/AAA as an 18 year old in 2018. Seems like a good analogy. Guess what Gary Redus hit the following year when he actually got to A and AA as a  22 year old? 251.  One shy of his career major leaguer average. 

Whatever point you tried to make with this weird random analogy fell quite flat.

 

I still don't even see the point with any of this. I also don't think anyone doesn't acknowledge there is risk with any prospect. Still though, he's the consensus #1  guy and according to you he's one of the worst fielders in the entire minor leagues. Either the scouts disagree or his bat is that ridiculous.  

Scouts don't disagree, I just had a chat with a Dodgers scout the other day about him.  His first step is atrocious.  He DOES have an arm though, but that doesn't do much when he can't even reach what would be considered a routine play for most major league 3b.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Do you know what a small sample size is?  One hit vs one starter does not a major leaguer make.  Spring training?  You mean when pitchers are behind hitters and it's MUCH easier to hit?  Pillar hit .438 in ST last year...

Yup. Very small sample but the fact is he DID face a major league pitcher and did crush a pitch that won the game. Again is it his fault he hasn''t facedf quality major league pitching ? You are making it sound like he won't hit when called up ? Of course he may struggle. I'll give you that. I own him in three leagues and I don't care if he hits .100 and gets sent back. He will remain on my teams as long as possible . This guy is special. Must be you don't own him and can't get him.  Really hard to understand why you are bashing him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

3B is a very difficult position to master. Its called the hot corner for a reason. Plenty of terrible defensive 3B that turned themselves into above average corner OFers like Alex Gordon. Andjuar also gets talked up as a someone that could excel as a OF. Yankees have a logjam in the OF though. Vladdy is too slow footed to make it as a OF. Doesn't mean he wont end up a quality defensive 1B if they give up on him as a 3B.

 

35 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

And I destroyed everyone in the state of Washington as a teenager in track.  Doesn't mean I ran in the Olympics.  

Baseball has a major mental element and learning curve. Making it as far as he has a teenager speaks volumes about his future. Since ya, know. He will consistently mature and get better at it. So being that advanced as a teen puts him ahead of the curve.

 

 

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, motown magic said:

Yup. Very small sample but the fact is he DID face a major league pitcher and did crush a pitch that won the game. Again is it his fault he hasn''t facedf quality major league pitching ? You are making it sound like he won't hit when called up ? Of course he may struggle. I'll give you that. I own him in three leagues and I don't care if he hits .100 and gets sent back. He will remain on my teams as long as possible . This guy is special. Must be you don't own him and can't get him.  Really hard to understand why you are bashing him.

Not bashing him.  Being realistic.  Using MiLB stats to assume he will rake in the majors doesn't work.  AAA statistically is easier to hit than AA, and MUCH easier than the majors.  Still a small sample but he hit about 70 points lower there than AA.  His BABIP was grossly inflated last year and it showed in the move to AAA.  I expect him to be good, not great with the bat for the first few years.  Playing in the AL East helps him with the stadiums he gets on most road games.  

 

2 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

3B is a very difficult position to master. Its called the hot corner for a reason. Plenty of terrible defensive 3B that turned themselves into above average corner OFers like Alex Gordon. Andjuar also gets talked up as a someone that could excel as a OF. Yankees have a logjam in the OF though. Vladdy is too slow footed to make it as a OF. Doesn't mean he wont end up a quality defensive 1B if they give up on him as a 3B.

 

Baseball has a major mental element and learning curve. Making it as far as he has a teenager speaks volumes about his future. Since ya, know. He will consistently mature and get better at it. So being that advanced as a teen puts him ahead of the curve

 

 

That's not exactly true.  Everyone matures and develops differently.  Some players peak as teens and are never heard from again.  Some don't peak until they are in their late 20s (Jose Bautista).  Success as a teenager in the minors does not correlate with success in the majors at all.  Plenty of teenagers have been able to skate by the minors only to be a AAAA player.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Success as a teenager in the minors does not correlate with success in the majors at all. 

 

Success as a teenager at advanced level in the minors absolutely correlates with success in the majors.  It doesn't guarantee success, but you are far more likely to succeed as a major leaguer if you rake at AA/AAA as an 18-19 year old than if you didn't. Isn't that sort of obvious?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Success as a teenager at advanced level in the minors absolutely correlates with success in the majors.  It doesn't guarantee success, but you are far more likely to succeed as a major leaguer if you rake at AA/AAA as an 18-19 year old than if you didn't. Isn't that sort of obvious?

Alright, if you want to make that supposition then support it with facts.  Show me how many players mashed in the minors and raked in the majors comparatively to how many flamed out when they hit the majors.  Just a guess but I would bet it would be WELL under 50% to have succeeded, meaning that statistically it's not a correlation.  Maths.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Even then, correlation /= causation meaning that a correlation does NOT show that Vlad will have success, only that he has a CHANCE at success.  I literally could write a ton about statistical correlation in sports about random things that don't mean anything.  I mean statistically players do better if they are over 6 foot but under 6'4".  Doesn't mean someone in that range will necessarily succeed.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In fact, the actual correlation statistical app used by most MLB teams is KATOH.  Going into last year, while good at 2nd, Benintendi was projected as a superior player during his first 6 years of MLB stats.  3rd was Dansby Swanson, then Meadows and JP Crawford. all within 5 WAR within 6 years.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Not bashing him.  Being realistic.  Using MiLB stats to assume he will rake in the majors doesn't work.  AAA statistically is easier to hit than AA, and MUCH easier than the majors.  Still a small sample but he hit about 70 points lower there than AA.  His BABIP was grossly inflated last year and it showed in the move to AAA.  I expect him to be good, not great with the bat for the first few years.  Playing in the AL East helps him with the stadiums he gets on most road games.  

 

That's not exactly true.  Everyone matures and develops differently.  Some players peak as teens and are never heard from again.  Some don't peak until they are in their late 20s (Jose Bautista).  Success as a teenager in the minors does not correlate with success in the majors at all.  Plenty of teenagers have been able to skate by the minors only to be a AAAA player.

Simply a factor. There is a lot of people out there that believe in age to level. People more educated on the workings of prospect valuation than either you are I. 

 

Using antidotel evidence(some players are late bloomers, some young age to level players fail) does not dis-prove the empirical patterns in terms of success rate. Of course their are exceptions and specific learning curves that change from player to player. I'm talking about as a marco, overall patterns.  No one is saying Vlad can't fail. Anything can happen. His odds are just better than most prospects in terms of potential for success.

 

Its like we are having a discussion about Marco Economic trends and you are debating us with elements of Mirco economics. Its frustrating and we just talking over eachother and getting no where.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
25 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

Simply a factor. There is a lot of people out there that believe in age to level. People more educated on the workings of prospect valuation than either you are I. 

 

Using antidotel evidence(some players are late bloomers, some young age to level players fail) does not dis-prove the empirical patterns in terms of success rate. Of course their are exceptions and specific learning curves that change from player to player. I'm talking about as a marco, overall patterns.  No one is saying Vlad can't fail. Anything can happen. His odds are just better than most prospects in terms of potential for success.

 

Its like we are having a discussion about Marco Economic trends and you are debating us with elements of Mirco economics. Its frustrating and we just talking over eachother and getting no where.

 

I get that, but you can't base anything off just Micro or Macro trends.  You need a comprehensive list of everything, much of which is guesswork with how little he has played in the US.  It's just like 'can't miss' Cuban prospects which are anything but.  There is a reason Rusney Castillo got paid so much by a group who is one of the best in terms of overall player scouting.  Anything can and will happen in a game of chance like baseball.  However, I will say even the best prospects have less than a 50% chance of success.  That's not anecdotal evidence, that's just facts.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

I get that, but you can't base anything off just Micro or Macro trends.  You need a comprehensive list of everything, much of which is guesswork with how little he has played in the US.  It's just like 'can't miss' Cuban prospects which are anything but.  There is a reason Rusney Castillo got paid so much by a group who is one of the best in terms of overall player scouting.  Anything can and will happen in a game of chance like baseball.  However, I will say even the best prospects have less than a 50% chance of success.  That's not anecdotal evidence, that's just facts.

 

Would love to hear your prediction for Vlads stats/slash line in 2019 as well as what you think his peak season stats/slash line will be in his career. So we can all quote you.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Gus Chiggins said:

 

Would love to hear your prediction for Vlads stats/slash line in 2019 as well as what you think his peak season stats/slash line will be in his career. So we can all quote you.

First year is most likely a bit of a struggle as he will have to adjust to pitching for the first time in his career.  Expecting around a .260/.340/.400 line if he gets full time run.  If not, it could be less as he has to adjust to the struggles of not playing everyday (most likely he plays everyday).  Expecting around 20-25 hrs, 70-80 rbis, 60ish runs.  Not bad, not elite.  Long term it all depends on his adjustments and I won't make a prediction until I can see how he adjusts at first.  If he has issues with breaking balls then my projections will go way down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Gus Chiggins said:

daynlokki - .260 25HR 80 RBI

 

Steamer - .306 22 HR 77 RBI

 

Batting average aside, sounds like you like yourself some vladdy.

At 20 years old....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, daynlokki said:

First year is most likely a bit of a struggle as he will have to adjust to pitching for the first time in his career.  Expecting around a .260/.340/.400 line if he gets full time run.  If not, it could be less as he has to adjust to the struggles of not playing everyday (most likely he plays everyday).  Expecting around 20-25 hrs, 70-80 rbis, 60ish runs.  Not bad, not elite.  Long term it all depends on his adjustments and I won't make a prediction until I can see how he adjusts at first.  If he has issues with breaking balls then my projections will go way down.

See. Now I don't dis-agree with that at all.

 

This is why i feel this entire back and forth is a complete lack of understanding. We are not dis-agreeing with vlad's outlook. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, kelle1sa said:

At 20 years old....

I never once said I didn't like him.  I just won't say he's the next Trout until he shows he can even hit major league pitching.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/29/2018 at 10:54 PM, Gus Chiggins said:

daynlokki - .260 25HR 80 RBI

 

Steamer - .306 22 HR 77 RBI

 

Batting average aside, sounds like you like yourself some vladdy.

Thats not hitting major league pitching ? Thats struggeling ? Mike Trout didn't hit nearly that well when he first came up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 12/29/2018 at 11:22 AM, daynlokki said:

I literally could write a ton about statistical correlation in sports about random things that don't mean anything. 

 

This is a rare time that you and I can agree on something. 

 

17 hours ago, daynlokki said:

  I just won't say he's the next Trout until he shows he can even hit major league pitching.  

 

He won't be Mike Trout, not sure why that would be anyone's expectation. Mike Trout is on the GOAT pace right now. I fully expect Vlad Jr to fall short of Trout.

 

I think the hope is he puts together a lot of these recent JD Martinez seasons over more years. I don't think it will take nearly as long for him to reach a high level of hitting success, and because he's so young, he can do it for a lot of years. Of course it's no given, but that's the hope... not being Mike Trout. In addition to being a tremendous hitter, Trout is a great defender and runner and is capable of playig CF, which is one of the scarcest real life positions. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, motown magic said:

Thats not hitting major league pitching ? Thats struggeling ? Mike Trout didn't hit nearly that well when he first came up.

Struggling compared to what you all seem to think he will be which is a .300 hitter right out of the gate lol.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Starting to really feel like you guys are just trying to find a reason to argue with me after that last post from motown and brock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

This is a rare time that you and I can agree on something. 

 

 

He won't be Mike Trout, not sure why that would be anyone's expectation. Mike Trout is on the GOAT pace right now. I fully expect Vlad Jr to fall short of Trout.

 

I think the hope is he puts together a lot of these recent JD Martinez seasons over more years. I don't think it will take nearly as long for him to reach a high level of hitting success, and because he's so young, he can do it for a lot of years. Of course it's no given, but that's the hope... not being Mike Trout. In addition to being a tremendous hitter, Trout is a great defender and runner and is capable of playig CF, which is one of the scarcest real life positions. 

JD Martinez... You realize even while hitting almost .400 he only had 20 hrs last season correct?  He then followed that up with ZERO in 77 abs in the AFL.  His power profile doesn't currently match up with what you are looking at in any capacity.  He can easily grow into more power, but projecting that when he hasn't shown it in the past is a slippery slope.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

He can easily grow into more power, but projecting that when he hasn't shown it in the past is a slippery slope.

 

In no way do I mean to project Vlad Jr to have a peak JD year in 2019. You keep thinking a bunch of people are projecting Vlad to be a super elite bat ML bat in 2019, but I don't really think anyone is actually saying that. I'm not sure why you had to bring in a 21 year old's stats in Rookie Ball in 1978 to prove that Vlad JR won't hit 40 Home Runs with a 350 average in 2019 in the majors. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
  • Like 1
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

In no way do I mean to project Vlad Jr to have a peak JD year in 2019. You keep thinking a bunch of people are projecting Vlad to be a super elite bat ML bat in 2019, but I don't really think anyone is actually saying that. I'm not sure why you had to bring in a 21 year old's stats in Rookie Ball in 1978 to prove that Vlad JR won't hit 40 Home Runs with a 350 average in 2019 in the majors. 

Your last point made no sense.  I used that to show that while you may have amazing numbers in the minors, it doesn't necessarily translate to the majors.  The stats were from literally the best hitting season of all time in the minors, for a player who ended up hitting around .250 in the majors.  Proximity to the majors helps Vlad's case, but his power is not amazing right now.  20 hrs in the minors no longer projects to 30 in the majors.  The average fastball in the minors is about 3 mph slower than the majors and many breaking balls are unfinished (which is Vlad's offensive weak point, breaking pitches).  You never see anyone throw a cutter in the minors anymore yet it is one of the most prolific pitches in the majors.  Teams don't run a shift in the minors (won't really apply to Vlad unless he starts pulling more to gain more power), but they are ran HEAVILY in the majors.  There are millions of things Vlad hasn't seen yet which he will when he gets into the majors.  And yes, most people here seem to think he will grossly overperform my estimates offensively.  Motown is the one who brought up Trout and how my projections would have Vlad hit better than him when he comes up, although Motown also forgot to mention Trout's ACTUAL rookie year where he hit .326 with 30 hrs and 49 sbs, only bringing up a small 123 AB sample size the year prior.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Ok then.  I still find it intellectually dishonest to compare Vlad to a 21 year old in Rookie Ball in 1978. Everyone knows numbers don't transfer equally between leagues and levels, Rookie ball is an egregious example without haing to use a 21 year old. Plenty of guys put up 300+ seasons in rookie ball every year who become nothing.

 

What Vlad did as a teenager in  AA/AAA was far more impressive what some old guy for Rookie ball did in 1978. 

 

Also Motown merely suggested Trout struggled at first, he did not imply that Vlad would have a Mike Trout 2012 next year.  Nobody is actually arguing vehemently that he will be Mike Trout next year in fantasy or real life. 

Edited by brockpapersizer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

Ok then.  I still find it intellectually dishonest to compare Vlad to a 21 year old in Rookie Ball in 1978. Everyone knows numbers don't transfer equally between leagues and levels, Rookie ball is an egregious example without haing to use a 21 year old. Plenty of guys put up 300+ seasons in rookie ball every year who become nothing.

 

What Vlad did as a teenager in  AA/AAA was far more impressive what some old guy for Rookie ball did in 1978. 

 

Also Motown merely suggested Trout struggled at first, he did not imply that Vlad would have a Mike Trout 2012 next year.  Nobody is actually arguing vehemently that he will be Mike Trout next year in fantasy or real life. 

Technically it's intellectually dishonest to compare any player to any other player then.  Vlad hit almost .400.  The other player named was in his first professional season and has the MiLB record for single season batting.  He compared Trout's first season to what Vlad will potentially do in his first season. Honestly, he may be right.  Vlad really could have a Trout 2011 as well considering he's nowhere near the offensive profile of Trout.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.