Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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The point was, Vlad is up on prospect rankings as high as he is partially due to his pedigree.  If he was wasn't Jr, he wouldn't be as high as he currently is.  Not saying he wouldn't still be a top prospect, but for some reason scouts love to use family pedigree when it comes to minor league talent like that makes you a for sure thing.  It doesn't.  

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4 hours ago, daynlokki said:

The point was, Vlad is up on prospect rankings as high as he is partially due to his pedigree.  If he was wasn't Jr, he wouldn't be as high as he currently is.  Not saying he wouldn't still be a top prospect, but for some reason scouts love to use family pedigree when it comes to minor league talent like that makes you a for sure thing.  It doesn't.  

Very Small factor. I mean, which prospect should be ahead of him? Tatis being a SS gives a lot more defensive value, but he hasn't illustrated to have near the hit tool Vladdy does.

 

Eloy is top 5 and no one raves about his defense and Vladdy Hit/Power Combo are graded better than Eloy.

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This player has a pretty hot discussion going on here and I find it to be pretty funny. Sure I get it. Allot of prospects don't pan out and all of that but really there is always a reason why any given player ends up a bust and most of the time there are warning signs that you can see so that you can trade them in most cases if you don't fall in love with them and act like he's your star and you don't want to here about it.

 

But keep in mind we all are here on this message board because we all are playing in Dynasty and Keeper leagues and Vladdy he hit .381 in the minors last season and in term of minor league numbers that is as good as good can get and it's not too much of a leap of faith to believe allot of that will carry over into the majors and that is allot of time left for him to get better.

 

So keep in mind even though he is not major league proven but if you don't own him you can be sure the price to trade for him will go through the roof if you wait for him to prove it.So yeah theres always that risk and if he ends up a bust you end up being tooken but if you pick your spots well and be willing to take that risk do come out on top most of the time'

 

So I'm just saying if you don't own him you should be talking to his owner and he's worth trading for even if you give up 5 or 6 high end prospects that you think will end up as busts. And that mathers very little because your on this message board where you can always find more prospects.

 

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

The point was, Vlad is up on prospect rankings as high as he is partially due to his pedigree.  If he was wasn't Jr, he wouldn't be as high as he currently is.  Not saying he wouldn't still be a top prospect, but for some reason scouts love to use family pedigree when it comes to minor league talent like that makes you a for sure thing.  It doesn't.  

 

Once apond a time that may have been true in a place far far away. It's all in the hype and it was all sexy in the press that once was.

 

Prospect guys are getting better and the ones we have today put to shame all of them we had 10 to 15 years ago. Trust me when I tell you they have grown past that and to prove it for under that standard Cavan Biggio clearly would be a Top 25 prospect right now for his numbers are good enough to back that up and the fact that he's not even in the Top 100 says allot.

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Do we have a date on when Vlad Jr will get the call up if everything goes status quo in spring training and AAA? Is there a specific date that TOR gains an extra year of arbitration?

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On 12/31/2018 at 7:54 PM, Fantasy Monk said:

This player has a pretty hot discussion going on here and I find it to be pretty funny. Sure I get it. Allot of prospects don't pan out and all of that but really there is always a reason why any given player ends up a bust and most of the time there are warning signs that you can see so that you can trade them in most cases if you don't fall in love with them and act like he's your star and you don't want to here about it.

 

But keep in mind we all are here on this message board because we all are playing in Dynasty and Keeper leagues and Vladdy he hit .381 in the minors last season and in term of minor league numbers that is as good as good can get and it's not too much of a leap of faith to believe allot of that will carry over into the majors and that is allot of time left for him to get better.

 

So keep in mind even though he is not major league proven but if you don't own him you can be sure the price to trade for him will go through the roof if you wait for him to prove it.So yeah theres always that risk and if he ends up a bust you end up being tooken but if you pick your spots well and be willing to take that risk do come out on top most of the time'

 

So I'm just saying if you don't own him you should be talking to his owner and he's worth trading for even if you give up 5 or 6 high end prospects that you think will end up as busts. And that mathers very little because your on this message board where you can always find more prospects.

 

So you are saying his value in trades is lower now than when he makes the majors?  I literally saw him traded for Harper and a top 20 prospect earlier this offseason.  When he gets to the majors, his value actually will dip overall because you can no longer project him to hit better.  Happens with prospects all the time.  Prospects usually cost you more than ML talent in any dynasty league, especially ranked highly.

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12 hours ago, daynlokki said:

So you are saying his value in trades is lower now than when he makes the majors?  I literally saw him traded for Harper and a top 20 prospect earlier this offseason.  When he gets to the majors, his value actually will dip overall because you can no longer project him to hit better.  Happens with prospects all the time.  Prospects usually cost you more than ML talent in any dynasty league, especially ranked highly.

Yeah, Not saying he would come cheep but he is 19 Years old and Harper is 29 Years. in a Dynasty league he has 10 years of use to a team over Harper and if he prove he is going to be one of the best hitters in the league. It would become a whole new ballgame and it would be reasonable to ask for Trout and Harper and a few prospects'

 

Sure, Allot of them end busts and if you think your will bust you should push in trades but some of them will turn into superstars and if Vlady does become a superstar giving up Harper and a top 20 prospect that may or may not pan out will be a very small price to pay. But clearly there is a risk there if he don't pan out but in Dynasty league you can't build a winning team without taking some risks and playing it safe can be the biggest risk of them all and the one you pay the most for 

 

And I tell you Ronald Acuna proved he was worth taking that risk and I took that risk and traded for him last year in my dynasty league and I would do the same for Vlady but luckly I don't have too.

Edited by dzemens
Removed off topic discussion.

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Harper is only 26. Not 29. I traded Merrifield and Andjuar to get Vlad in one league and Berrios and Eloy in another to get him. Would I have traded Harper if I owned him? Can't really say. I don't own Harper. But it's easier to say yes or no if you don't own Harper or any other stud . I know own Vlad in three leagues. One is a keep forever, another is a three year league and the last is three years but can extend contracts . One time shot . I can see Vlad on all of my teams for as long as possible.

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On 12/31/2018 at 4:21 PM, Slatykamora said:

Very Small factor. I mean, which prospect should be ahead of him? Tatis being a SS gives a lot more defensive value, but he hasn't illustrated to have near the hit tool Vladdy does.

 

Eloy is top 5 and no one raves about his defense and Vladdy Hit/Power Combo are graded better than Eloy.

OF defense is in no way up at the same bar as infield defense.  They can hide a defender in LF and he will make only a fraction of the plays a 3b or 1b need to make.  The point was the grading is somewhat skewed because Vlad's father is in the Hall.

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I think the major disconnect Im seeing in this thread, daynloki, is you seem to perceive that many here see Vald as a top 20ish player the minute he steps into the bigs.  I don't believe this is accurate.

 

Conversely, I think many have the perception that you see Vlad as a bust and hugely likely to fail for various reasons.  Inherent prospect risks dulty noted, based on your projection, this isn't accurate either.

 

The fact you value see him as a .260ish/.350ish/25 HRish player is probably right around where experienced fantasy players see him.  So, I think there is a lot more consensus on what his likely level of production will be versus the amount of back and forth his evaluation is generating.

 

On another note, the debate on where he fits in from a dynasty league asset may be driving the misperception of where he is valued as a real life talent.  Being a top 20 dynasty asset in no way means he's a top 20 player in the game in 2019 or 2020.

 

I don't know, I just see a lot more agreement than disagreement in this thread on what Vlad will likely do once he gets called up.

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He is freakishly gifted and it's all in a pretty large frame with proven Hall of Fame genetics. Is his prospect status dependent on the name? Not in the least. But does it hurt? Naw....   He is a 10/10 offensive player though. And even if his name was Cornelius Bumberkin, and he bore no relation to Vladimir Guerrero but instead to an 18th-century Polish carpenter named Wandelin, we'd be gawking over his natural hitting genius. I offered a "package" of George Springer, Scooter Gennett, and Luis Robert in dynasty and was basically laughed at. I thought at the very least it could start discussions, but it quickly proved that the man is completely untouchable, and unless you're sending Acuna, he's staying put. 

 

That said, I think Eloy is super underrated relative to Vladdy, and it wouldn't be farfetched if he had the superior career. If not for the Pujols-like ceiling of VladdyJr (sorry dude, pressure's on), Eloy would be touted as the premier big bashing prospect in the game - as disciplined and methodical as he is strong, big, and athletic. Eloy Jimenez is a huge guy but if you think he's a power hitter first, that's wrong - he's a superb hitter with gargantuan power. 

 

in 2019 fantasy I like both. They both are fairly polished and physically overpowering, and highly skilled. both could hit .280-25-70 and I wouldn't be shocked 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS
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4 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

 offered a "package" of George Springer, Scooter Gennett, and Luis Robert in dynasty and was basically laughed at. I thought at the very least it could start discussions, but it quickly proved that the man is completely untouchable, and unless you're sending Acuna, he's staying put. 

 

 

 

I wouldn't laugh, but that's a pretty easy pass. Unless its so deep of a league that Gennett and Springer somehow push the other guy over the hump significantly next year, doesn't make sense. Vlad could outproduce Springer next year, and the difference of having an elite bat for almost 10 years younger is not Scooter Gennett. Robert seems like an overrated prospect to me. As a Vlad owner for years, that last prospect would have to be like Keston Huira or better for me to consider that, and this is presuming it's a deep league where Gennett/Springer very valuable in down years and can't be replaced with easy production on the wire.  Even after all that, fantasy baseball is usually about fun and not making a living, owning Vlad in a dynasty league is just more fun.  If the move makes sense to do barely, most owners are still going to lean on keeping Vlad rather than giving him away for 3 split pieces. 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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12 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

He is freakishly gifted and it's all in a pretty large frame with proven Hall of Fame genetics. Is his prospect status dependent on the name? Not in the least. But does it hurt? Naw....   He is a 10/10 offensive player though. And even if his name was Cornelius Bumberkin, and he bore no relation to Vladimir Guerrero but instead to an 18th-century Polish carpenter named Wandelin, we'd be gawking over his natural hitting genius. I offered a "package" of George Springer, Scooter Gennett, and Luis Robert in dynasty and was basically laughed at. I thought at the very least it could start discussions, but it quickly proved that the man is completely untouchable, and unless you're sending Acuna, he's staying put. 

 

That said, I think Eloy is super underrated relative to Vladdy, and it wouldn't be farfetched if he had the superior career. If not for the Pujols-like ceiling of VladdyJr (sorry dude, pressure's on), Eloy would be touted as the premier big bashing prospect in the game - as disciplined and methodical as he is strong, big, and athletic. Eloy Jimenez is a huge guy but if you think he's a power hitter first, that's wrong - he's a superb hitter with gargantuan power. 

 

in 2019 fantasy I like both. They both are fairly polished and physically overpowering, and highly skilled. both could hit .280-25-70 and I wouldn't be shocked 

If he wasn't Vlad's son, he most likely wouldn't have even been signed when he was.  That's the point. Even then, he wasn't the top international player, believe he was considered about the 4th best at the time.

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12 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

If he wasn't Vlad's son, he most likely wouldn't have even been signed when he was.  That's the point. Even then, he wasn't the top international player, believe he was considered about the 4th best at the time.

I hate using the term 

You never know because most of the time we will know . 

But this is a place where I will .

You never know .

He is Vlads son 

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Does it matter if he was the 1st or 4th best international prospect in 2015 as a 16 year old? Mike Trout was drafted after the 20th pick and there was much more footage on those guys. Things change. 

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/26794/some-projection-left-the-top-j2-prospects/

 

Rather have he 10th guy on this list than the 1-2- or 3, and his Dad wasn't a hall of famer.

Edited by brockpapersizer
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3 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Does it matter if he was the 1st or 4th best international prospect in 2015 as a 16 year old? Mike Trout was drafted after the 20th pick and there was much more footage on those guys. Things change. 

 

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/prospects/article/26794/some-projection-left-the-top-j2-prospects/

 

Rather have he 10th guy on this list than the 1-2- or 3, and his Dad wasn't a hall of famer.

Yes at the time, but if you think for a second that literally anyone who knows baseball didn't see Vlad getting into the Hall early then I have a bridge to sell you.

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3 hours ago, motown magic said:

I hate using the term 

You never know because most of the time we will know . 

But this is a place where I will .

You never know .

He is Vlads son 

In this instance, I can definitively say we DO know.  Because the scouts who came out to watch him originally only came out because his FATHER ASKED THEM TO. Seriously lol

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11 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Yes at the time, but if you think for a second that literally anyone who knows baseball didn't see Vlad getting into the Hall early then I have a bridge to sell you.

 

You're misreading what I'm saying again.  I was saying I want Andres Giminez  from that list over the 1-2-3 guys and Gimnez dad isn't a hall of famer (not insinuating Vlad SR wasn't a HOF at the time)  People were clearly wrong with ranking 15-16 year old latin players... it happens. I'm not sure why it matters what Vlad or Gimenez was ranked in 2015 right now.. 

 

Nobody cares about why scouts came to see Vlad Jr 4 years ago in a fantasy thread about his value in 2019. Sure, he got extra attention because his Dad was Vlad Sr. Nobody is debating that except you with yourself for some very weird reason.  

 

Is he good now or not?

Edited by brockpapersizer
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2 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

You're misreading what I'm saying again.  I was saying I want Andres Giminez  from that list over the 1-2-3 guys and Gimnez dad isn't a hall of famer (not insinuating Vlad SR wasn't a HOF at the time)  People were clearly wrong with ranking 15-16 year old latin players... it happens. I'm not sure why it matters what Vlad or Gimenez was ranked in 2015 right now.. 

 

Nobody cares about why scouts came to see Vlad Jr 4 years ago in a fantasy thread about his value in 2019. Sure, he got extra attention because his Dad was Vlad Sr. Nobody is debating that except you with yourself for some very weird reason.  

 

Is he good now or not?

His minor league stats are good yes.  But when you enter a league based on your father's name of course it skews how you are looked at.  I'm asserting that he wouldn't be as highly ranked if his name wasn't Vlad Jr.  There have been others with similar stats at a similar age who weren't even ranked prospects.  It really seems like they are adding pressure on him and pushing him to fail if they bring him up too early.  

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Having strong bloodlines doesn't define, but simply adds another wrinkle to the helium surrounding Vladito.

 

Plenty of fellow major league hopefuls come from strong baseball bloodlines, yet do not project as highly (See two in the current Blue Jays org), so I completely disagree that his gaudy outlook stems solely from being "Vladdy's kid".  

 

 More-so, its been his on the field performance, and elite skill set (unworldly hit and power tool),  that has pathed his way to where he is viewed as a generational talent.  Could that talent be hereditary in part...sure.  Might he have strong "baseball genes"...absolutely.  With any job, who you know is equally as important as what you know to get a foot in the door....so having a HOF parent certainly didn't hurt.   

 

Regardless, in the here and now, he is poised to be a superstar based on his own body of work, and his given talent,  so why not just sit back and enjoy the show?      

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2 hours ago, daynlokki said:

His minor league stats are good yes.  But when you enter a league based on your father's name of course it skews how you are looked at.  I'm asserting that he wouldn't be as highly ranked if his name wasn't Vlad Jr.  There have been others with similar stats at a similar age who weren't even ranked prospects.  It really seems like they are adding pressure on him and pushing him to fail if they bring him up too early.  

 

As someone who has done zero fact checking on this, I'd love to see this list...

 

Vlads numbers make him the #1 prospect. Just like if Soto hadn't got the call last year he'd be top 5 easy (probably 2 or 3). It's also the same reason Franco will be top 5 midyear. 

 

You're really going out on a limb saying that a prospect might not become a superstar...I think we get it. I hope you're around in May when Vlad is raking. 

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2 hours ago, hypeiz4real said:

 

As someone who has done zero fact checking on this, I'd love to see this list...

 

Vlads numbers make him the #1 prospect. Just like if Soto hadn't got the call last year he'd be top 5 easy (probably 2 or 3). It's also the same reason Franco will be top 5 midyear. 

 

You're really going out on a limb saying that a prospect might not become a superstar...I think we get it. I hope you're around in May when Vlad is raking. 

Bet you won't be if he doesn't.  Before last year he hit .323 as an 18 year old in single A and .271 in rookie ball at 17/18.  13 hrs was his top.  You're telling me he was a top 20 prospect based on a .323 average and 13 hrs in single A at 18.  Here, give me literally 5 minutes to find hundreds of players that have similar numbers in the last 10 years in single A at 18.  He was up so high because of who his dad is lmao.  


Funny you bring up Soto, you want an example, there you go.  Soto wasn't a top prospect until really last season.  He was well regarded, but not a tippy top guy.  At 17 in rookie ball (same age), Soto hit .361, but his name wasn't Vlad, so he wasn't nearly as well regarded until this last season at 19.  Even then, he had a TOTAL of 8 AA games before his call (they were forced to call him up because of injury).  Without that injury, he MAYBE would have finished last season in AAA looking at a cup of coffee in September NEXT season.

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3 hours ago, F@ndemonium said:

Having strong bloodlines doesn't define, but simply adds another wrinkle to the helium surrounding Vladito.

 

Plenty of fellow major league hopefuls come from strong baseball bloodlines, yet do not project as highly (See two in the current Blue Jays org), so I completely disagree that his gaudy outlook stems solely from being "Vladdy's kid".  

 

 More-so, its been his on the field performance, and elite skill set (unworldly hit and power tool),  that has pathed his way to where he is viewed as a generational talent.  Could that talent be hereditary in part...sure.  Might he have strong "baseball genes"...absolutely.  With any job, who you know is equally as important as what you know to get a foot in the door....so having a HOF parent certainly didn't hurt.   

 

Regardless, in the here and now, he is poised to be a superstar based on his own body of work, and his given talent,  so why not just sit back and enjoy the show?      

Previous poster made my point with Cavan Biggio.  He literally said he thinks he should be a top 25 guy 'based on numbers'.  Well, his numbers are mediocre for age and level, so why exactly does Cavan Biggio keep coming up in prospect talk?  Bloodlines.  That's really it.

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5 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Bet you won't be if he doesn't.  Before last year he hit .323 as an 18 year old in single A and .271 in rookie ball at 17/18.  13 hrs was his top.  You're telling me he was a top 20 prospect based on a .323 average and 13 hrs in single A at 18.  Here, give me literally 5 minutes to find hundreds of players that have similar numbers in the last 10 years in single A at 18.  He was up so high because of who his dad is lmao.  

 

 

 Does he deserve to be the #1 prospect right now or not?  You're knock against Vlad  now was he was rated too high LAST year now? 

 

In the  2017 season he had two full season levels that year where he hit for a 151 and 179 WRC+ as an 18 year old (feel like these are better numbers than average and raw HR totals) .  Maybe he was ranked too high last year, but that was  a pretty impressive and then he backed it up with a more impressive performance in AA/AAA still as a teenager.  I don't disagree that he may have gotten extra attention throughout his career and before he signed because his dad is a legend, but he's backed it up impressively. 

 

The number of teenagers who play even low A ball every year (where Vlad was at the beginning of 2017), is a pretty small number to begin with. Around a dozen, or maybe less than 8-10?  The number of teenagers who play in AA/AAA every year is less than half that. I think this year it was Vlad, Keiebrt Ruiz and someone.  Tatis didn't even qualify because he was "too old" as a 20 year old .

 

Instead of looking up what Gary Remus did in 1978 as a 21 year old in Rookie Ball (which is a considerable drop down from even Low A), try to focus your attention on finding what teenagers have done at advanced levels.  You won't find many and Vlad's BB/K numbers while slugging 600 in AA/AAA. as a teenager. 

 

Maybe there's some disconnect here if you're just looking at average and raw home run totals.

5 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Previous poster made my point with Cavan Biggio.  He literally said he thinks he should be a top 25 guy 'based on numbers'.  Well, his numbers are mediocre for age and level, so why exactly does Cavan Biggio keep coming up in prospect talk?  Bloodlines.  That's really it.

 

You have absolutely taken that argument out of context... again.  The poster was refuting your argument about bloodlines being everything by saying Biggio has put up really good numbers, and that if bloodlines mattered he'd be a top 25 prospect.  So you really twisted his point around and added a "literally" to it, when you're literally missing his point. He probably could have worded it better, but he said scouting has come a long way and the fact that Biggio isn't top 100 says a lot about how far scouting has come. Agree or disagree with his point, but he was not arguing that Biggio should be a top 25 guy.

 

Nobody in this thread is arguing Biggio should be ranked high or higher, I've seen him on a list here or there but not very often. Yes, he certainly gets talked about more than a random guy whose dad wasn't a major leaguer, no argument there.

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 Does he deserve to be the #1 prospect right now or not?  You're knock against Vlad  now was he was rated too high LAST year now? 

 

In the  2017 season he had two full season levels that year where he hit for a 151 and 179 WRC+ as an 18 year old (feel like these are better numbers than average and raw HR totals) .  Maybe he was ranked too high last year, but that was  a pretty impressive and then he backed it up with a more impressive performance in AA/AAA still as a teenager.  I don't disagree that he may have gotten extra attention throughout his career and before he signed because his dad is a legend, but he's backed it up impressively. 

 

The number of teenagers who play even low A ball every year (where Vlad was at the beginning of 2017), is a pretty small number to begin with. Around a dozen, or maybe less than 8-10?  The number of teenagers who play in AA/AAA every year is less than half that. I think this year it was Vlad, Keiebrt Ruiz and someone.  Tatis didn't even qualify because he was "too old" as a 20 year old .

I did.  Notice you didn't bring up ANYTHING about Soto.  Who not only had better numbers at the SAME AGE AS VLAD in the same levels prior to his call up, but also wasn't a top prospect until last season.  Just saying.  If you are going to quote me on everything, don't omit the ONE thing I said that directly refutes what you are saying.  That's debating with bad faith.

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