Gauthmann44

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. - 3B TOR

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10 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

I did.  Notice you didn't bring up ANYTHING about Soto.  Who not only had better numbers at the SAME AGE AS VLAD in the same levels prior to his call up, but also wasn't a top prospect until last season.  Just saying.  If you are going to quote me on everything, don't omit the ONE thing I said that directly refutes what you are saying.  That's debating with bad faith.

 

Bad faith? Ha. Are you really trying to argue after the 2019 season that Juan Soto was ranked too low heading into 2018 and/or 2017? Guess what? Everyone agrees with you. Prospect rankings are often wrong. I won't argue that either.

 

Where do you think Vlad should be ranked right now? How many guys do you have over him?

 

 

 

 

Edited by brockpapersizer

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21 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Bad faith? Ha. Are you really trying to argue after the 2019 season that Juan Soto was ranked too low heading into 2018 and/or 2017? Guess what? Everyone agrees with you. Prospect rankings are often wrong. I won't argue that either.

 

Where do you think Vlad should be ranked right now? How many guys do you have over him?

 

 

 

 

Yes bad faith.  You quoted my post, then purposely deleted anything about Soto, which was DEFINITELY in it and talked about how I need to bring up guys who raked as teenagers in the minors at the same age and level.  I did.  I brought up Soto.  You just omitted him from your post.  THAT'S the definition of arguing in bad faith.  Over Vlad right now?  Not a ton.  Like you said, his offense does match closely with his ranking.  The fact is, he was that highly ranked before his offensive output matched the ranking.  That's what I'm saying and you are refusing to even acknowledge.  Which is why I brought up Soto who had BETTER numbers at the SAME levels prior to his early callup yet barely received any prospect notice.  Because he didn't have Vlad's bloodline.

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19 hours ago, daynlokki said:

Previous poster made my point with Cavan Biggio.  He literally said he thinks he should be a top 25 guy 'based on numbers'.  Well, his numbers are mediocre for age and level, so why exactly does Cavan Biggio keep coming up in prospect talk?  Bloodlines.  That's really it.

 

Really, You have no argument  for my point that you just say I proved yours.

 

There can be a case to  be made that  Age and level argument is over rated. International prospects can sign at the Age of 15 and 16 and players can be drafted out of high school at the age of 18 and 19 and collage player interning the league can be 21 or 22. So there clearly going to be an age deference and it don't mean a player couldn't be an All Star because he choice to go to collage and ended up getting a later start and it's not fully fair to judge him on that.

 

Biggio as a Top 25 player is a reach I admit that but his upside could spined to be that but to be fair you should admit that he is under rated.

 

He hit 26 Home Runs up from 11 the season before. That power has to be real and at the age of 23 there is time for him to get better and he did this past season. Could he become a 35 Plus Home Run guy. That might be doable for him. He had 20 Stolen Bases. Shows there is some speed in his game. You can debut how much will hold and it will depend on how well his batting average holds up but he did have 100 walks this past season and if that holds up then he should be able to get on base enough to get some Stolen Bases and 10 plus Stolen Bases might not be much of a reach in his case.

 

His Batting Average .252 last season yes it is mediocre at best but it was .233 the season before, So he's not Major League ready but he got enough upside to get there but if the bat doesn't get any better but he ends up with 35 Home Runs, 15 Stolen Base.90 Runs, 90 RBI's, .250 average. Who wouldn't take that on there fantasy team.

 

There are risks, I know and all of that may or may not happen but there are unknown unranked players that break out every year and become more then you think they where going to be and I would not say that Biggio couldn't become that. He's a nice player and they say he's a  very intelligent player too with incredible instincts for the game.

 

Prospect ranking is getting better but it still is very flowed and they still need to do less hype and give more credit to the players that are putting up real numbers. So Top 25 is a reach but Top 100 isn't

 

I curefully choice him as the player to make that point because he was the right one not a Top 25 yet but you can't question that he doesn't have some really good talent and he should be owned in leagues that field 120 prospects or more.

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On 1/5/2019 at 3:05 AM, daynlokki said:

Bet you won't be if he doesn't.  Before last year he hit .323 as an 18 year old in single A and .271 in rookie ball at 17/18.  13 hrs was his top.  You're telling me he was a top 20 prospect based on a .323 average and 13 hrs in single A at 18.  Here, give me literally 5 minutes to find hundreds of players that have similar numbers in the last 10 years in single A at 18.  He was up so high because of who his dad is lmao.  


Funny you bring up Soto, you want an example, there you go.  Soto wasn't a top prospect until really last season.  He was well regarded, but not a tippy top guy.  At 17 in rookie ball (same age), Soto hit .361, but his name wasn't Vlad, so he wasn't nearly as well regarded until this last season at 19.  Even then, he had a TOTAL of 8 AA games before his call (they were forced to call him up because of injury).  Without that injury, he MAYBE would have finished last season in AAA looking at a cup of coffee in September NEXT season.

 

Yes, Yes I am, not just for those stats but also the BB/K rates (BB higher than Ks mind you) along with 28 2B.  The stats ALONE were enough to put him top 20.  Brinson had somewhat similar stats as Vlad (albeit at age 23 in AAA) and was ranked top 15 on most lists.

 

Vlad pre-season 2017 was ranked 34 on MLB.com, primarily due to his stats in 2016 AND his 55/60 hit/power profile.  Being in that neighborhood in the rankings isn't wildly impressive.  He didn't rocket up rankings UNTIL mid-season 2017 when he played 119 games between A/A+ with > 160ish wRC. 

 

By comparison, Soto dealt with injuries most of 2017 and was limited to 32 games between R/A with a 160ish wRC.  You can argue similar stats, but the larger sample and A+ with Vlad give him a clear edge. 

 

By the end of 2017 Vlad was #4, Soto was 37.  Seems about right to me given Soto played 32 games?  Did they miss Soto on the 2017 pre-season list?  Sure I'll give you that one.  Probably belonged in the 50-80 range (again Vlad was 34 - not a huge gap between them).

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27 minutes ago, hypeiz4real said:

Vlad pre-season 2017 was ranked 34 on MLB.com, primarily due to his stats in 2016 AND his 55/60 hit/power profile.  Being in that neighborhood in the rankings isn't wildly impressive.  He didn't rocket up rankings UNTIL mid-season 2017 when he played 119 games between A/A+ with > 160ish wRC. 

Based on his stats?  In 2016 he hit .271 in rookie ball albeit at 17.  He had 8 hrs in 276 PAs.  You're telling me that his name had NOTHING to do with the fact that he was ranked 34th with those stats?

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37 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

Based on his stats?  In 2016 he hit .271 in rookie ball albeit at 17.  He had 8 hrs in 276 PAs.  You're telling me that his name had NOTHING to do with the fact that he was ranked 34th with those stats?

 

122 wRC as a highly graded international prospect with a 55/60 hit/power. Pretty solid for a 17 year old.

 

Luis Robert is graded similar (55/60) and sits in the 20-40 range on most lists despite underwhelming with power while still posting in wRC. 

 

If ranking was based on stats only we wouldn't need scouts would we...

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On 1/1/2019 at 8:24 PM, bgbg22 said:

Do we have a date on when Vlad Jr will get the call up if everything goes status quo in spring training and AAA? Is there a specific date that TOR gains an extra year of arbitration?

 

Late April or so just like Kris Bryant and Ronald Acuna. Mid April is when Toronto gets the extra year of control. I don't know the specific date since each season is different depending on when it starts.

Edited by Carlos Correa

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10 hours ago, hypeiz4real said:

 

Yes, Yes I am, not just for those stats but also the BB/K rates (BB higher than Ks mind you) along with 28 2B.  The stats ALONE were enough to put him top 20.  Brinson had somewhat similar stats as Vlad (albeit at age 23 in AAA) and was ranked top 15 on most lists.

 

Vlad pre-season 2017 was ranked 34 on MLB.com, primarily due to his stats in 2016 AND his 55/60 hit/power profile.  Being in that neighborhood in the rankings isn't wildly impressive.  He didn't rocket up rankings UNTIL mid-season 2017 when he played 119 games between A/A+ with > 160ish wRC. 

 

By comparison, Soto dealt with injuries most of 2017 and was limited to 32 games between R/A with a 160ish wRC.  You can argue similar stats, but the larger sample and A+ with Vlad give him a clear edge. 

 

By the end of 2017 Vlad was #4, Soto was 37.  Seems about right to me given Soto played 32 games?  Did they miss Soto on the 2017 pre-season list?  Sure I'll give you that one.  Probably belonged in the 50-80 range (again Vlad was 34 - not a huge gap between them).

 

These are my thoughts as well. Could they have ranked Soto higher after 2016? Yeah, they probably should have. Ranking 17-18 year olds with all the other prospects is a hard task. There are going to be a lot of mistakes. In hindsight, both those guys were ranked too low after the 2016 season, even Vlad. 

 

After the 2017 season, Vlad had a much larger sample size and was playing at a higher level.  This wasn't a conspiracy against Soto. 

 

The fact that Vlad should have been ranked 1 for the 2015 J2 Class and was ranked 4 instead shows a lot about how they didn't just look at his Dad and put him at 1. 

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Soto got hurt in 2017. That is the number 1 reason his was underanked heading into 2018.  No one got to see how he would have handled a mid-season promotion to high A. They did with Vladdy.

 

Soto started last in Low A and Vlad started in AA. Even the Nationals didn't think he was as advanced as Vlad was yet. Guess what? Even they were dead wrong and he was their own freaking prospect.

 

Scout are very cautious about players until they prove themselves at the upper levels.

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5 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

These are my thoughts as well. Could they have ranked Soto higher after 2016? Yeah, they probably should have. Ranking 17-18 year olds with all the other prospects is a hard task. There are going to be a lot of mistakes. In hindsight, both those guys were ranked too low after the 2016 season, even Vlad. 

 

After the 2017 season, Vlad had a much larger sample size and was playing at a higher level.  This wasn't a conspiracy against Soto. 

 

The fact that Vlad should have been ranked 1 for the 2015 J2 Class and was ranked 4 instead shows a lot about how they didn't just look at his Dad and put him at 1. 

His stats before the J2 Class were underwhelming.  He shouldn't have been ranked 4th with what he had put up.

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And looking at my current draft, watching Vlad go before Harper, Machado and Bryant is kind of hilarious.  He may put up similar stats, most likely not much better overall in fantasy and he's going top 20 haha.

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16 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

His stats before the J2 Class were underwhelming.  He shouldn't have been ranked 4th with what he had put up.

 

Debatable. He became the overall #1 prospect. Seems like a low ranking, not high. The point is to rank their future, no solelyt based off stats they put up as 14 year olds. 

 

 

 

 

Assuming its for 2019 only, Vlad going before those guys seems to say more about your league than Vlad. 

14 minutes ago, daynlokki said:

And looking at my current draft, watching Vlad go before Harper, Machado and Bryant is kind of hilarious.  

 

Edited by brockpapersizer
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9 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Debatable. He became the overall #1 prospect. Seems like a low ranking, not high. The point is to rank their future, no solelyt based off stats they put up as 14 year olds. 

 

 

 

 

Assuming its for 2019 only, Vlad going before those guys seems to say more about your league than Vlad. 

If you base it purely off his stats prior to signing, it was a high ranking.  You can't go back and rank someone based on what they did after developing with a team.  Not how that works.  Facts are he was the 4th INTL player that year because of who his dad is and how his dad got scouts out to see him.  If Vlad were an inner city American teen without pedigree he would have easily been overlooked like Trout was.  Doesn't mean he doesn't have talent.  Means without his dad, it may never have been realized in any capacity.

 

If it says a lot about the league then laugh at the fact that the guy who drafted him has been talking crap about me on this very forum.

Edited by daynlokki

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8 hours ago, daynlokki said:

And looking at my current draft, watching Vlad go before Harper, Machado and Bryant is kind of hilarious.  He may put up similar stats, most likely not much better overall in fantasy and he's going top 20 haha.

 

I'll give you that one. In redrafts he's likely will be over priced but in Startup Dynasty and Keepers leagues your likely going to have to pay that and trust your making the right move in the end.

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On 1/7/2019 at 1:48 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Debatable. He became the overall #1 prospect. Seems like a low ranking, not high. The point is to rank their future, no solelyt based off stats they put up as 14 year olds. 

 

 

 

 

Assuming its for 2019 only, Vlad going before those guys seems to say more about your league than Vlad. 

Scouts will also tell you that projecting on a 14 year old is stupid.  Anything can literally happen.  They base rankings almost purely off current production and project for body type at that age.

Edited by tonycpsu

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On 1/6/2019 at 7:26 PM, hypeiz4real said:

 

Yes, Yes I am, not just for those stats but also the BB/K rates (BB higher than Ks mind you) along with 28 2B.  The stats ALONE were enough to put him top 20.  Brinson had somewhat similar stats as Vlad (albeit at age 23 in AAA) and was ranked top 15 on most lists.

 

Vlad pre-season 2017 was ranked 34 on MLB.com, primarily due to his stats in 2016 AND his 55/60 hit/power profile.  Being in that neighborhood in the rankings isn't wildly impressive.  He didn't rocket up rankings UNTIL mid-season 2017 when he played 119 games between A/A+ with > 160ish wRC. 

 

By comparison, Soto dealt with injuries most of 2017 and was limited to 32 games between R/A with a 160ish wRC.  You can argue similar stats, but the larger sample and A+ with Vlad give him a clear edge. 

 

By the end of 2017 Vlad was #4, Soto was 37.  Seems about right to me given Soto played 32 games?  Did they miss Soto on the 2017 pre-season list?  Sure I'll give you that one.  Probably belonged in the 50-80 range (again Vlad was 34 - not a huge gap between them).

Any scout will tell you the difference between 34 and 80 is enormous in prospect rankings.  Just like the gap from 1 to 34 is also enormous.

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This thread went off the rails pages ago. The fact that someone is arguing the consensus number one prospect in 2019 was ranked too high at 4 on a J2 list in 2015 is funny. Mistakes in prospecting happen regularly, not ranking the guys below Vlad over him in 2015 was not one them. They were too low at 4.

 

Scouting is about projecting who will be good, not solely  who was good last year. 

 

I don't see the point of any of this either. Vlad is going to be good. What degree of good we don't know and is worth speculating. If you ranked Vlad high or picked him up years ago, it looks like you did well on this one.

 

In a league for 2019 only, I'd temper expectations.

 

 

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There is far more consensus here about Vlads short term outlook than the amount of discussion indicates. 

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11 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

This thread went off the rails pages ago. The fact that someone is arguing the consensus number one prospect in 2019 was ranked too high at 4 on a J2 list in 2015 is funny. Mistakes in prospecting happen regularly, not ranking the guys below Vlad over him in 2015 was not one them. They were too low at 4.

 

Scouting is about projecting who will be good, not solely  who was good last year. 

 

I don't see the point of any of this either. Vlad is going to be good. What degree of good we don't know and is worth speculating. If you ranked Vlad high or picked him up years ago, it looks like you did well on this one.

 

In a league for 2019 only, I'd temper expectations.

 

 

The point was he was ONLY ranked that high based on his family name.  His stats and current projections at that time should have had him around 10-15.  He was in no way, shape or form the Vlad we see today.  Scouts don't have projections on hit tools for 14 year olds, all they project is body type because you cannot tell how someone's coordination will change as they hit their last major growth spurt.  That was the point.  His stats in the minors, while good didn't point to him being a top prospect until really this year.  Wander Franco even looked better as a 17 year old in rookie ball than Vlad did when he was there.  Better discipline, power numbers, AND average by about 80 points.  Out of ALL the people commenting I'm betting I'm the ONLY one here who has actually scouted in the past and has current relationships with MLB scouts.

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1 hour ago, daynlokki said:

Any scout will tell you the difference between 34 and 80 is enormous in prospect rankings.  Just like the gap from 1 to 34 is also enormous.

We'll just agree to disagree. . Not even going to back that up. 

 

If that's all you took away from that then I'm not continuing to feed this. 

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2 hours ago, hypeiz4real said:

We'll just agree to disagree. . Not even going to back that up. 

 

If that's all you took away from that then I'm not continuing to feed this. 

The FV between each of those is a laaaarge gap.  It's not up for debate it just is.  From 1 to 34 is about 10 FV, 34-80 is almost just as much.

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I mean I could go into more.  You brought up Lewis Brinson as a comp.  He's been great right?  MINOR LEAGUE STATS DON'T ALWAYS TRANSFER TO THE MAJORS.  Doesn't always matter how well you can hit minor league pitching when MAYBE 1/20th of the pitchers you face in your minor league career will even sniff the majors.  Same caveat comes with big bats from Japan.  While the league itself is close to AAA, just because you rake over there doesn't mean you will even hit the Mendoza line in the US.

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That's the point I'm putting across.  Out of the last 10 years, the top prospects depending on where you look have been: 2009 David Price or Matt Wieters... 2010 Jason Heyward, Desmond Jennings and Jesus Montero lol... 2011 Trout (easy), Harper and Matt Moore... 2012 Profar... Bundy... Myers... 2013 Buxton (didn't even get called up in SEPT last year) Taveras (no fault of the team of course) and Sano (hit under .200 last year)... 2014 Buxton AGAIN Correa, Bryant (these of course panned out) 2015 ONCE AGAIN BUXTON, Corey Seager (pretty good), Giolito (not very good)... 2016 MONCADA, JP CRAWFORD, GIOLITO, SWANSON (Great year right?)... 2017 Ohtani (easy call), Torres, Robles (this was a good year).  Overall I think we can say the rankings have been flawed at best for top prospects.  Fact is, even 1st overall prospects don't pan out regularly once they get to the majors.  We need to stop acting like his stat line will be a gimme, that's stupid as hell.

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The projections I've seen for him are crazy.

 

Bill James Handbook has him at .310/.377/.562... The 2nd most valuable player after Trout.  It's so ridiculous, that it's hard to trust the rest of the projections.

 

Baseball Forecaster is more reasonable, .294 average, .357 obp, .497 slug.  

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