Rhythms

Sleepers and players to avoid 2017-2018

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On 4/20/2017 at 0:19 AM, PuzzBeterson said:

rookies are, in general, overdrafted

sophs are almost always overdrafted

 

6 hours ago, Kaboom said:

Of all of them last season, only one rookie and six sophomores beat their ADP: Embiid, KAT, Jokic, Myles Turner, Larry Nance, TJ McConnell and Josh Richardson.

 

Surprisingly, Larry Nance was the #88 player on the year (ADP was 142). 

 

3 hours ago, PuzzBeterson said:

Brogdon?

Good call, I was only looking at players who were actually drafted. Brogdon wasn't drafted enough to generate an ADP but he did end up #114 on the year.  

 

The drafted rookies looked like this:

 

Capture_zpsci2sayzt.png

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13 hours ago, Kaboom said:

 

 

Good call, I was only looking at players who were actually drafted. Brogdon wasn't drafted enough to generate an ADP but he did end up #114 on the year.  

 

The drafted rookies looked like this:

 

Capture_zpsci2sayzt.png

If you take into account in H2H where embiid was hurt for the crucial 1/3 of the final season, I think his 120th adp is justified. So basically this year was horrible for rookies in H2h at least.

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18 hours ago, Rhythms said:

Well rookies in general are late round lottery tickets.

 

To reasonable drafters.. even in our rotoworld mock drafts though, I always find guys reaching a little higher than I would on rookie picks.. the top rooks often go in the middle-ish rounds.

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16 hours ago, s-kayos said:

 

To reasonable drafters.. even in our rotoworld mock drafts though, I always find guys reaching a little higher than I would on rookie picks.. the top rooks often go in the middle-ish rounds.

Markelle Fultz looks like he gonna be worth the mid round though. i can see him doing something like...20 3 6 1 with at least 1 3pt a game. He may be the rare exception of me reaching for a rookie in redraft leagues. the last reach i had on a rookie i believe was in 2003 when i drafted lebron carmelo in the mid rounds back to back.

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1 hour ago, larfboy said:

Markelle Fultz looks like he gonna be worth the mid round though. i can see him doing something like...20 3 6 1 with at least 1 3pt a game. He may be the rare exception of me reaching for a rookie in redraft leagues. the last reach i had on a rookie i believe was in 2003 when i drafted lebron carmelo in the mid rounds back to back.

But can Fultz get those stats coming off the bench behind Isaiah Thomas?

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1 hour ago, Kaboom said:

But can Fultz get those stats coming off the bench behind Isaiah Thomas?

Agreed, I rather select whoever the Suns drafts or the pg that ends up in NYK.

 

Chance that the #1 pick is traded to another team though.

Edited by rob0403

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Is there any chance Pat Connaughton has value next year in deep leagues? He had a couple monster games at the end of the regular season when the Blazers rested their top guys. If he made the rotation he could be a decent 3 and D player.

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On ‎01‎/‎05‎/‎2017 at 10:37 AM, b3wall said:

Is there any chance Pat Connaughton has value next year in deep leagues? He had a couple monster games at the end of the regular season when the Blazers rested their top guys. If he made the rotation he could be a decent 3 and D player.

See what POR does in the off season since Allen Crabbe is there already. Maybe they will move him for a good PF. Doesn't seem likely Pat will have much value though.

 

I think Dekker is going to be a very under the radar sleeper next year. He can do a lot of things on the court and his injury is making fantasy players forget about him. Ariza is 32 next year though he should be playing hard in his contract year, which may limit Dekker's upside.

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On 5/1/2017 at 4:37 PM, b3wall said:

Is there any chance Pat Connaughton has value next year in deep leagues? He had a couple monster games at the end of the regular season when the Blazers rested their top guys. If he made the rotation he could be a decent 3 and D player.

"monster games"....

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On 4/27/2017 at 2:20 AM, rob0403 said:

If you take into account in H2H where embiid was hurt for the crucial 1/3 of the final season, I think his 120th adp is justified. So basically this year was horrible for rookies in H2h at least.

 

Not true.

 

It true that in H2H you need to consider rookies & sophomores as a burden to carry up until all-star break.

If they get the minutes they need to add value in the last month, that's what you roster them for. 

It's important not to reach, as there are bargains to be had elsewhere

It's also important not to go for too many rookies/sophomores because you will be out of contention by the time all-star break rolls around, and their strong finish to the season you're banking on will be for nothing once you're out of the playoffs.

 

Remember there's 2 aspects to consider: 1- making the playoffs, 2- having the strongest team in the championship rounds

 

 

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Players I'm avoiding: 

 
Carmelo until at least Round 5 or 6 (still had a T30 ADP despite not meeting it again this past season)
BroLo - 5 rebounds? C'mon cuh... I don't want to hear excuses on that one..
Jonas Valanciunas - Casey never uses this kid enough to justify his ADP
Reggie Jackson  - Just say no.
Age - Dirk, Gortat, Pau, etc.  
Any PG that can''t shoot - (well I do this every year, including the usual suspects, MCW, Mudiay, Payton, Rondo, Exum,  Rose, etc etc..) it rarely ever works in your favor except for very specific team compositions.
 
My sleepers: 
Gary Harris - quietly put up 9-cat value on par or even better than guys drafted 50 picks ahead of him, Granted, he's also one of those cases where low ballhandling responsibilities and low TOs boost his valule. Still, there's value in those 3&D stats with good %s. Last 3 months he was T40 in my league, averaging almost 17ppg with 3 ast,1.4 stls, 2.2 threes and 52% FG.

Nerlens Noel - if he's on the right team in the right position to succeed he'll be a great value pick in the middle rounds. Subdued Sixers/Mavs role and injury concerns may make him fall low enough to be a real value pick on draft day. He's still a stocks monster. 
 
D. Favors - Despite finishing at rank 157 by my league's metrics, If he falls outside of the T70 on draft day I think he'll be undervalued. Recurring injuries are a definite concern but I think you could do worse in the middle rounds. Barring more playoff or off-season injury concerns, I'm not convinced he's done being a T50ish guy. An off-season of rest may do him good. 
 
 
Also: Jamal Murray, J-Rich, Brogdon, Willy Hernangomez
Not sure yet: D'Angelo, RHJ, WCS, Randle, Yogi, Hardaway Jr, Hield, Portis

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I think with the success of the gasol brothers and brook lopez developing threes, expect this trend to further continue.

 

i would "avoid" paying a premium for high volume 3s guys and study who is developing a 3 point shot this offseason

 

gsw changed the way the game is played and evrryone and their moms is chucking threes

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Not a sleeper or DND, but don't sleep on Porter. I don't think Washington is going to look much different, besides maybe the 5 position. BBM has Porter 22nd overall..

If I have someone like Westbrook or Harden, or punting assists, I'd consider taking Porter late second. BBM has him 11th overall in a punt-assist strategy.

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Which rookie is worth drafting this year if he is in the teams? Which team is the right team? (all Pending on if Boston makes a trade)

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10 hours ago, tongs said:

Not a sleeper or DND, but don't sleep on Porter. I don't think Washington is going to look much different, besides maybe the 5 position. BBM has Porter 22nd overall..

If I have someone like Westbrook or Harden, or punting assists, I'd consider taking Porter late second. BBM has him 11th overall in a punt-assist strategy.

Porter is 39th if not accounting TO. During first three rounds I don't usually like players, who's biggest value is low turnovers. I always try to find productive players and Porter, who completely "disappear" in some games. is not my choice in first 3 rounds. For the same reason I avoid Ariza until 6th round. But I already know that most of people here don't like my strategy. And of course one of my main rules: I never ever punt assists!

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On 19.5.2017 at 3:51 AM, Rhythms said:

Hows that working out for you?

I have played fantasy basketball only 8 times (7 deep league appearance from 2010-2016 and 1 standard 12-team league 2016). I have finished 5 times in top three, but failed three times. But I don't think it depends on not punting assists. It is all about strategy what you choose. I try to be mostly balanced, but there are some cats which I pay more attention: usually PTS, AST, STL and one of % (my opinion is that you can't be good in both%). Also my strategy is: don't pay much attention to threes in the beginning of draft, you find them later. Last season standard leage for example I drafted Eric Gordon at 10th and Lou Williams at 12th round.

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On 4/13/2017 at 6:18 AM, Rhythms said:

Now that the season is officially over, lets start a list of sleepers that I think will exceed their draft position given what I think the stock will be vs end of season value.

 

Richaun Holmes - He's a great handcuff to Joel and is a big that can shoot freethrows, expect him to go late in the draft because of the crowded philis front court despite averaging 3rd round value for the last 2 months of the season.

 

Seth Curry - I was wrong about him, he's a great shooter with great efficiency, that alone is enough to put him in 40th value over the last 2 months. He could easily keep those stats up for a whole season, either playing off of point for the mavs.

 

Josh Richardson - Super inconsistent this season but turned it on last few weeks could be a 3-d guy for the heat

 

Larry Nance- He's better than randle fantasywise, not sure about real life given I haven't watched many lakers games, but he's 3rd round value given 29+minutes. A nice punt points play

 

Tyler Johnson- 8th round value for the season and fell off a cliff for the last 3 months, I'm targetting him late rounds because he's a glue guy that doesn't do anything spectacular, but doesn't hurt you anywhere

 

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson- I drank the coolaid this year, but if I can get him last 3 rounds next year I think there's a chance he'll be a real nba player, but no midround target for me.

 

Aaron Gordon-He was really good late in the year, I'm targeting him anywhere reasonable.

 

Cody Zeller- top 80 this season with good efficiency, for some reason ft% fell off a cliff, but I think that's a temporary thing

 

Malcolm Brogdon- My ROY, he's going to be a good late round flier next year given he put up 8th round value last 3 months.

 

Boban Marjanovic- his per36 is off the charts, if he gets 20+minutes a game he'll be worth 8th-9th round value

 

Jamal Murray- PG of the future for the nuggets, well that's Jokic.

 

 

There is 0% chance Boban gets 20 mins nightly. 

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Josh Richardson, Aaron Gordon, T Prince in Dynasty Leagues. Gordon close to All Star next year since the Magic finally figured out this guy is their future. He's only 22 with massive potential.......Prince should put up 1-1-1 and 14-15 ppg as early as next year. Potential 1st team defense and was shooting better last part of season due to consistent minutes.......I just like Richardson all around game. Nothing special in any one category but will be a solid player in the league next 8-10 years in my opinion.....

 

Lots of guys could break out if in the right situation...Kelly Oubre if he gets traded or gets playing time. ......Marquise Chriss in 2 years......

Edited by dino10k
Spell check

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On 5/2/2017 at 11:06 PM, Em-City said:

Remember there's 2 aspects to consider: 1- making the playoffs, 2- having the strongest team in the championship rounds

 

And I know this is outside the scope of the discussion, but in some leagues there's a third aspect.  If you're in a league where you can keep a few players in the round you drafted them the year before, rookies are a commodity unlike any other.  If you could get year 3 Monk in the 9th round, would you do it?  Even if you know he's probably only going to have like 11th round value THIS year?  s--- gets complex.

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Sleepers: (players outperforming their ADP)

-oubre: I feel like brooks knows what he has in oubre as he proved in the playoffs that he deserves more minutes

- Jamal Murray: nuggets are gonna play their guard of the future. 

-Blake griffin: with cp3 leaving Blake has an opportunity to display his improving handles for his position. Has a shot of being an early second rounder. Hoping he stays in LA of course

-Dennis smith jr- he's got the keys keys keys...

-Austin rivers: more run at pg assuming clippers don't add anyone else. I think they'll run Patrick Beverly off the bench

-de'aaron fox: he got the keys keys keys....

-buddy: kings  gonna let that boy(steph 2.0) run! 

- Zachary lavine: was shooting lights out before the injury in Minny. Should thrive in Fred hoiberg system

- Tyler Johnson, jason richardson: love what the heat did last season as there is no go to guy on the team. Moves as a unit with shared responsibility and everyone is held accountable. Tyjo and I rich can be of good value in the later rounds. You can throw James Johnson in there too.

skal: had decent numbers post DMC trade. Should get minutes.

milsap: was a late first rounder in 2016. Dwight came in and took all the boards. If he stays in ATL  regardless of his age I'm taking him late second round. 

THJ: 3pt specialist. In a tanking ATL team, he's probably their number 2 scoring guy behind milsap.

 

 

 

 

 

 

avoiding:

-derrick favors- eff this guy

-valenciunas- I'm not drafting nowhere under pick 60

-Carmelo- not worth his ADP.. hasn't been for the past 3 seasons. As long as he's a knicks I'll be avoiding the situation all together 

- Reggie jackson: he's a bum. He is not a starter on any team.

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On 5/15/2017 at 6:31 PM, jim james said:

I think with the success of the gasol brothers and brook lopez developing threes, expect this trend to further continue.

 

i would "avoid" paying a premium for high volume 3s guys and study who is developing a 3 point shot this offseason

 

gsw changed the way the game is played and evrryone and their moms is chucking threes

Yea good point. 3s are a dime a dozen now. Sg or a 3 point specialist is something I target in the later rounds. It's rebounds, blocks and steals that are scarce. Whiteside, gobert, dj, Drummond and Myles are all worth an early round pick to build your team around

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4 hours ago, willthethrill said:

- Zachary lavine: was shooting lights out before the injury in Minny. Should thrive in Fred hoiberg system

 

LaVine underwent ACL reconstruction surgery on February 14th.  He'll be cleared for contact practice in mid November, I'd bet, and his timeline then would be maybe 4-6 weeks.  So watch for that.

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