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So I'm in a H2H points league that starts 1 catcher and was surprised by some of the results when I ran projections for this year for my point system and assigned z-scores for the positional groups.

 

Basically when just using a z-score for the top 12 projected catchers, I generally get Z-Scores anywhere from around 1.2-2 for the top three trio of Posey, Sanchez, Lucroy. For people not particularly familiar with that, it means that Posey/Sanchez/Lucroy are being graded out as top 20 players based on their points compared to the rest of the catchers. If Posey is scoring 420 pts, and say Wilson Contreras is projected like 320 as the #5 catcher, it means Posey is quite valuable more so than expected. I've run the scores with all the projections like ZIPs, Steamer, Baseball Forecaster and all generally come with a similar value placed on the top catchers.

 

My question is, since this really doesn't fit with the narrative in fantasy baseball, what's wrong here? Should I be trusting that at least in PTs leagues that the top catchers are particularly undervalued? Like Posey may be in the value range of a Manny Machado and Sanchez like a Corey Seager. I'm not advocating people pick them at this value, still wait to pick them at the ADP, maybe jump a round earlier but maybe in points league catchers who play a majority of the time and hit are worth a lot more than conventional wisdom.

 

For reference I also ran the numbers based on how catchers actually scored in the 2016 season to see if projections underrated the middle group of catchers but found the numbers to be more or less in line with the projections for this year and the z-scores. Posey still popped a 2 last year. 

 

It seems weird to me too and I am probably wrong with my method of calculation but I just wanted to get people's thoughts on using Z-Scores for points league valuations and why are catchers so high? I've attached a pic of my work for it. I wouldn't focus too much on the projections since they are a composite of ZIPs/Steamer and a few others so there shouldn't be any huge outliers. 

 

I've also included the overall Z-Scores, and for the most part they line up with what you would expect with the exception pitchers are quite valued (makes sense this is a H2H points league) and closers can jump high in points leagues as well. 


Any criticism on the method or input is welcomed, just trying to figure if it catchers are undervalued in points leagues or maybe just my method. Thanks. 

 

Catcher Z-Scores: http://oi64.tinypic.com/1078hg1.jpg

 

Overall Z-Scores: http://oi67.tinypic.com/n52dx.jpg :

 

 

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Seems reasonable that having a top player at a thin position would provide more value than having one of many top guys at a deep position. The same would apply for real baseball. The Giants have had a pretty nice advantage over every other team by having Posey and his roughly 5-7 WAR each year at a position where most teams are maxed out around 1-3 WAR.

 

As far as the narrative, I recall Posey was being drafted as early as the 2nd round in all formats not too long ago when he was in his prime so it's not unheard of for catchers to get drafted early and not just in points leagues. I think Posey returned 1st round value the year he won MVP and people were probably paying a 3rd round+ pick for him - that's how you win leagues.

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I also play in a H2H points league and there are a couple of things you have to factor in when doing your rankings.  The first is the opportunity cost of drafting a top catcher early vs drafting another position.  Sure you get a catcher that's better than 95% of the rest of the league but now you're lagging behind in another position.  If you don't take one of the top 3, there are only 3 teams in the league who have a better catcher than you on paper.  Maybe you don't even play one of those teams in the playoffs?  Also catchers score less points overall than other positions so they're less likely to go off and win you a week by themselves.  Catchers also get more days off.  There's nothing more aggravating than when you catcher sits out a day game after night game.  In H2H those lost 4 or 5 at bats are huge.  That said, I think all of that is built into their current ADP.  One underrated aspect of drafting a top catcher is not having to constantly pick up and drop guys on the waiver wire.  When you get halfway through the season the pickings are slim. I ended up drafting Lucroy in the 7th because at that point the opportunity cost wasn't very high.  No way would I draft catcher in the first 4 rounds even if the numbers support it.

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Hey guys,

 

This is my first season trying a points league and am a little curious as to what strategy the vets take.  This is a weekly format and that starts 5 Sp and 2RP.  I went super heavy on pitching thinking I could make up for a middle of the road offense.  I targeted line drive hitters with low K and high BB.  However, after looking at my team my offense doesn't look that great.  Should I move a couple pitchers to upgrade the offense or do you think the team should be competitive?  Thank you for any assistance you can provide.

 

 

Edited by Patrick Bateman
Please take roster specific questions to the Bench Coach Forum. Thanks.

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8 minutes ago, 89Topps said:

Should be posted in the Bench Coach forum.

Thanks for the heads up.  However, in the description it does state this forum was also for general strategy discussion.  I believe my question does meet this criteria.

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2 hours ago, Jvanspro said:

Thanks for the heads up.  However, in the description it does state this forum was also for general strategy discussion.  I believe my question does meet this criteria.

 

 

I believe, "Should I make a trade" posts should generally go to Bench Coach.

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Since the up tick in offense during the second half of 2015 I have altered my strategy a bit and have started going heavy on offense. I will draft the best available starter in round 3 and then try and get another decent pitcher in round 6. So out of the first 7 or 8 rounds I draft 5 or 6 hitters and 2 starting pitchers. Last year that landed me Kluber and Verlander along with a nice offense and a nice year overall. To me the days of 20 pitchers being drafted in the first 3 rounds are over.

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Ignoring Saves Altogether?

 

Is this a viable option in fantasy? just punt the saves category? or not smart?

Is the downside that my WHIP gonna rise?

I was thinking of focusing on W, K, and Starting pitching in a 5x5 H2H. 

can't seem to buy a save at all right now despite having 4 "closers".

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I ditched RPs and saves years ago (I literally never look at them, don't even know their names) -- my league however is 11X11, so I just load up on starting pitchers and dominating W,K,QS,GIDP, along with competing weekly in ERA/WHIP. Not to mention more opportunities at CG SOs.

 

You can have your one save category -- I'll take the other 21. 

 

Works out well

(don't know about doing it in a 5X5 though...)

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1 minute ago, Spina said:

I ditched RPs and saves years ago (I literally never look at them, don't even know their names) -- my league however is 11X11, so I just load up on starting pitchers and dominating W,K,QS,GIDP, along with competing weekly in ERA/WHIP. Not to mention more opportunities at CG SOs.

 

You can have your one save category -- I'll take the other 21. 

 

Works out well

(don't know about doing it in a 5X5 though...)

got it thank you. that was my think as well as most of the other guys in my league have scooped up all the good closers britton, chapman,etc..  I'm sick and tired of owning less than attractive RP or RP on losing teams when I can stream or take a flyer on guys like SP.  

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yeah, I've found that in 5x5, it's better to NOT punt saves, mostly because of the ERA and WHIP and extra Ks. Who are your 4 closers?

Edited by pbjfb

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1 minute ago, pbjfb said:

yeah, I've found that in 5x5, it's better to not to punt saves, mostly because of the ERA and WHIP and extra Ks. Who are your 4 closers?

 

diaz, colome, bush, trenien/kelley. 0 saves this week lol. 1 save last week. I give up.

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Just now, happymedium11 said:

 

diaz, colome, bush, trenien/kelley. 0 saves this week lol. 1 save last week. I give up.

 

Those are good closers (except treinen). I would say don't dump them, stick with it, they've just been unlucky with getting saves so far. Maybe backup Kelley and Diaz with Glover and Altavila.

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Depends obviously how your league does scoring, roster requirements, etc. I remember like 3 years ago a new guy in our league literally drafted every high end closer with his first 4-5 picks, and ended up I think with around 8 closer by the end of the draft...yeah, he won that year. We all thought he was nuts. 

 

 

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Good strategy until you've reached your innings limit mid-way through the season.

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14 minutes ago, happymedium11 said:

Is this a viable option in fantasy? just punt the saves category? or not smart?

Is the downside that my WHIP gonna rise?

I was thinking of focusing on W, K, and Starting pitching in a 5x5 H2H. 

can't seem to buy a save at all right now despite having 4 "closers".

Not good.  Not only will your WHIP rise but your ERA as well and your K's decrease.  Reliever are 4 cat guys just like starters are. 

Better to have a balanced team then punt a category out of the gate and go into each week one column down and leaking stuff in three other categories in H2H.

And closers in roto where there is a season innings limit and you need the best K to innings ratio you can get are worth their weight in gold.  So punting saves in that format is like committing suicide.

And you have damn good closers.  Colome is elite and Diaz will be though he will have ups and down a little at first.  Bush should be very good too and Kelley gives you really good K/9 stats even when he isn't saving games.  Just drop Trenien.  He has been replaced and won't get another chance to close.Giving up in April is just plain ridiculous.  Everyone knows Saves comes in bunches.  If you get rid of any of those relievers except Trenien you would be an utter fool.

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1 minute ago, pbjfb said:

 

Those are good closers (except treinen). I would say don't dump them, stick with it, they've just been unlucky with getting saves so far. Maybe backup Kelley and Diaz with Glover and Altavila.

ok, its early so i'mma see how it develops. but my guys haven't even gotten opportunities to save because 1. their team loses that night. or 2. their team wins by 4 or some bs like that. 

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1 minute ago, The Big Bat Theory said:

Not good.  Not only will your WHIP rise but your ERA as well and your K's decrease.  Reliever are 4 cat guys just like starters are. 

Better to have a balanced team then punt a category out of the gate and go into each week one column down and leaking stuff in three other categories in H2H.

And closers in roto where there is a season innings limit and you need the best K to innings ratio you can get are worth their weight in gold.  So punting saves in that format is like committing suicide.

And you have damn good closers.  Colome is elite and Diaz will be though he will have ups and down a little at first.  Bush should be very good too and Kelley gives you really good K/9 stats even when he isn't saving games.  Just drop Trenien.  He has been replaced and won't get another chance to close.Giving up in April is just plain ridiculous.  Everyone knows Saves comes in bunches.  If you get rid of any of those relievers except Trenien you would be an utter fool.

thank you mate for talking some logic into this. your points are well taken. trenien is getting dropped like a bad habit. 

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It's a strategy but you have to make up for it in other areas, especially starting pitchers which can be challenging given how unreliable they are.

I punt wins and k's in a 6 x 6 (with saves + holds) in an auction league.  I enjoy it the best of all the "punt a category" strategies and think it works better than punting saves.  Actually I am punting wins and k's but getting holds and saves and usually have a great shot at WHIP and ERA.  I wouldn't do it in a 5 x 5 format though...

Edited by knuckleheads

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47 minutes ago, happymedium11 said:

ok, its early so i'mma see how it develops. but my guys haven't even gotten opportunities to save because 1. their team loses that night. or 2. their team wins by 4 or some bs like that. 

 

It's luck-based... some weeks, your closers won't have opportunities; others, they will have plenty.

 

As for the strategy, I've found it is better to go and draft 2 top closers and then round out the other closers from there.

 

This year, I tried and reached for Chapman and Jansen, so I could feel comfortable chasing lesser closers later.

 

If you rely exclusively on grabbing closers from the wire, you'll get screwed more often than not.

 

And, no, drafting a top closer is not paying for saves. It's paying for saves, ERA, WHIP and K. The ratios are kind of underrated, but that's usually what makes or breaks the matchup.

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