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34 minutes ago, jwblue said:

I am new to Roto 5x5. 

 

In order to well in stolen bases is it necessary to draft a player with a higher stolen base total or can I spread out the total with players that steal 6-10?  If I want to do well in stolen bases what should I expect my highest total for stolen bases by a player be?

Bags are dropping a bit as a trend - generally right now the magic number in a 14-batter roto for me is about 140-150 steals coming out of the auction/draft.  Usually I will target bag guys as injury replacements when guys go on DL, I am not a big fan of the bag-only guys who are serious liabilities in other stats being on my roster all year, those guys who get 30RBI and 1HR. 

 

Ideally, your get the best of both worlds, in that the guys you are filling in with are not completely SB duds.   Honestly where it gets challenging is when you get a guy like a Schoop or other middle IF guys who dont run or when all your early picks are guys who dont run.  You then end up with those bag only guys, that can really put a strain on other spots.  

 

 

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How does everyone deal with the time period after your draft, but before the season starts?  I find that I end up liking everyone I drafted (duh, that's why I picked them), but also see all of these 'potential sleepers' on the WW, and I have a hard time juggling who to hold and who to fold.  Also when I do end up making a decision, sometimes it comes back to bite me.  Last year I drafted Aaron Judge on one team, started reading negative info in ST about how he was going to get beat out for an everyday job, and ended up getting bait.  At the same time though, if I'm eyeing someone on the WW and don't pull the trigger, and then I end up being right about them, I'd feel bad too.

 

I guess it's a scenario where you can't really win because you can only own so many players, and you have to pick your poison.  Are there certain positions you value more at this time of year?  Do you hold onto a lot of pitchers, or cut down to the minimum and add as the season gets going?  Is it worth holding onto RP's that are in "closer battles" in ST in the hopes you have the right one?  Or a waste of a roster spot, and you can find saves in-season?  Just curious if anyone has strong feelings on this.

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One thing i hear from experts a lot that is wrong. 

 

"Don't be afraid to reach for your guy. Don't get to hung up on ADP because it only takes one other player to snipe you. Yadda yadda yadda. "

 

This is playing emotionally, specifically it is playing scared. Like a poker player who overbets his big hands to take down the pot, fearing a bad beat. They are afraid the will get sniped and their guy goes on to win the cy young and of the frustration that will cause. 

 

To win the league you need to catch some breaks and get max value. Obviously you can reach here and there but you're more likely to win by nabbing that second closer near his adp now and hoping that your boy falls to you a little bit ahead of adp, instead of getting your boy 3 rounds early and a lesser pick. 

 

Obviously it's a generalization that becomes less true the deeper you are in the draft but, in general, don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes. 

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3 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

One thing i hear from experts a lot that is wrong. 

 

"Don't be afraid to reach for your guy. Don't get to hung up on ADP because it only takes one other player to snipe you. Yadda yadda yadda. "

 

This is playing emotionally, specifically it is playing scared. Like a poker player who overbets his big hands to take down the pot, fearing a bad beat. They are afraid the will get sniped and their guy goes on to win the cy young and of the frustration that will cause. 

 

To win the league you need to catch some breaks and get max value. Obviously you can reach here and there but you're more likely to win by nabbing that second closer near his adp now and hoping that your boy falls to you a little bit ahead of adp, instead of getting your boy 3 rounds early and a lesser pick. 

 

Obviously it's a generalization that becomes less true the deeper you are in the draft but, in general, don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes. 

So if you think a certain player is going to be really good but it's before his ADP then get the last laugh by letting somebody else draft him.  Got it. 

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1 hour ago, kirkcameron said:

So if you think a certain player is going to be really good but it's before his ADP then get the last laugh by letting somebody else draft him.  Got it. 

 

Yeah I’m with you. Draft who you believe in. Don’t follow ADP as your end all be all. It’s a good reference point when gauging what the market value is but do know how many leagues those ADP lists are made from?? Do you know how many bogus leagues are involved in that? I have a very difficult time believing every league accounted for in those lists take fantasy baseball as seriously as my league does or as seriously as the guys in this forum. Therefore I make my own rankings and don’t follow the drafting habits of millions of people who I don’t know or trust their baseball knowledge. 

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League tendencies matter and adp is just a guideline etc etc. How much you reach also depends how much you think the market is off. But that must be balanced with the strong possibility you are the one who is wrong, rather than everyone else.  It's a complicated issue. My main point is that you just shouldn't act out of fear. You should accept some bad outcomes in pursuit of the great outcomes, especiallly in an event where your generic chance of winning is 1/10 to 1/15. Just as high upside players can help you win, so can a high upside approach to the draft. In both cases you are shooting for a big roi. But many people will do one and not the other, mainly for emotional reasons. i.e. it is very satisfying to hit your gamble on a risky player, but you can waive it off when you miss and it is very frustrating to get sniped and watch the player have a big season. 

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On 3/14/2018 at 12:02 PM, handyandy86 said:

How does everyone deal with the time period after your draft, but before the season starts?  I find that I end up liking everyone I drafted (duh, that's why I picked them), but also see all of these 'potential sleepers' on the WW, and I have a hard time juggling who to hold and who to fold.  Also when I do end up making a decision, sometimes it comes back to bite me.  Last year I drafted Aaron Judge on one team, started reading negative info in ST about how he was going to get beat out for an everyday job, and ended up getting bait.  At the same time though, if I'm eyeing someone on the WW and don't pull the trigger, and then I end up being right about them, I'd feel bad too.

 

I guess it's a scenario where you can't really win because you can only own so many players, and you have to pick your poison.  Are there certain positions you value more at this time of year?  Do you hold onto a lot of pitchers, or cut down to the minimum and add as the season gets going?  Is it worth holding onto RP's that are in "closer battles" in ST in the hopes you have the right one?  Or a waste of a roster spot, and you can find saves in-season?  Just curious if anyone has strong feelings on this.

Generally a lot of folks are excited about who they got so its kinda hard to make deals, unless you kind of willing to overpay a bit.  I think waiver wire can be tempting, its also the same in auction league, I think there is a tendency to undervalue the mid priced guys as everyone scrapes for more money heading into the auction.  

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On 3/14/2018 at 12:02 PM, handyandy86 said:

How does everyone deal with the time period after your draft, but before the season starts?  I find that I end up liking everyone I drafted (duh, that's why I picked them), but also see all of these 'potential sleepers' on the WW, and I have a hard time juggling who to hold and who to fold.  Also when I do end up making a decision, sometimes it comes back to bite me.  Last year I drafted Aaron Judge on one team, started reading negative info in ST about how he was going to get beat out for an everyday job, and ended up getting bait.  At the same time though, if I'm eyeing someone on the WW and don't pull the trigger, and then I end up being right about them, I'd feel bad too.

 

I guess it's a scenario where you can't really win because you can only own so many players, and you have to pick your poison.  Are there certain positions you value more at this time of year?  Do you hold onto a lot of pitchers, or cut down to the minimum and add as the season gets going?  Is it worth holding onto RP's that are in "closer battles" in ST in the hopes you have the right one?  Or a waste of a roster spot, and you can find saves in-season?  Just curious if anyone has strong feelings on this.

Dont know if you read the auction thread but sometimes in auction the guy you maybe really wanted but didnt call because you didnt have the funds to protect them, if those guys are still out there, I can see that because its who you actually wanted in the auction.  

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5 hours ago, BostonCajun said:

 

Yeah I’m with you. Draft who you believe in. Don’t follow ADP as your end all be all. It’s a good reference point when gauging what the market value is but do know how many leagues those ADP lists are made from?? Do you know how many bogus leagues are involved in that? I have a very difficult time believing every league accounted for in those lists take fantasy baseball as seriously as my league does or as seriously as the guys in this forum. Therefore I make my own rankings and don’t follow the drafting habits of millions of people who I don’t know or trust their baseball knowledge. 

same here, i draft based on my league projections. 

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16 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

One thing i hear from experts a lot that is wrong. 

 

"Don't be afraid to reach for your guy. Don't get to hung up on ADP because it only takes one other player to snipe you. Yadda yadda yadda. "

 

This is playing emotionally, specifically it is playing scared. Like a poker player who overbets his big hands to take down the pot, fearing a bad beat. They are afraid the will get sniped and their guy goes on to win the cy young and of the frustration that will cause. 

 

To win the league you need to catch some breaks and get max value. Obviously you can reach here and there but you're more likely to win by nabbing that second closer near his adp now and hoping that your boy falls to you a little bit ahead of adp, instead of getting your boy 3 rounds early and a lesser pick. 

 

Obviously it's a generalization that becomes less true the deeper you are in the draft but, in general, don't fire until you see the whites of their eyes. 

 

 

Once I get to about pick 60 it is a free for all! Reaching has won me my league, and lost it, has to be done to be successful. I never mind hitting the 100+ ADP in round 5-6 if it is a guy I really want

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I think the key is that it all comes down to value.  Even if you think Zach Godley is going to win the Cy Young this year, it's still not smart to take him in the 3rd round.  But it also doesn't mean you're an over-paying fool to take him at pick 80 if his ADP is 110.  The whole point of 'reaching' is to get your guy relatively safely before you think your opponents will start targeting him.  

 

How far I reach depends on how confident I feel in the player.  If I feel really good about a player, I don't mind reaching a bit more to make sure I get them.  Others that I feel good but not great about, I'll reach a round or two depending on the circumstances.  You just have to be OK with not getting that player if someone else jumps in earlier.  

 

ADP is all just an arbitrary pricing system that is set mostly by so-called "experts" ranking players.  The "experts" rank everyone, and the majority of leagues will roughly follow those rankings when they draft, and that will make up the ADP.  In the end, a player's ADP means nothing if there is more than one owner in your league that values him higher - the draft cost of a player is going to vary from league to league.  And I'm sure if you look back at last year's draft, there will be plenty of examples of players that were picked around their "ADP" that look glaringly over-drafted or under-drafted.  

 

At the end of the day I want to win or lose based on my own judgments of players, not what the 'experts' or masses say.  If you think "reaching" is silly and ADP is king, that means you're letting the masses decide who you should select for your team.  If I'm going to lose I'd rather it be because I was wrong about the players I wanted, instead of the 'experts' and masses being wrong.  Control your own destiny!

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Has anyone ever had success at stock piling closer in the draft i.e. 4 plus?

 

 

I have noticed in my home league, the past 2 champions drafted 4-5 and when they have a lead of 10-15 saves, they start trading for great profit.

 

 

I am usually the guy who drafts a closer in the 8th, then 1 in the 12th or so and uses FAAB all year putting things together.

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1 hour ago, handyandy86 said:

I think the key is that it all comes down to value.  Even if you think Zach Godley is going to win the Cy Young this year, it's still not smart to take him in the 3rd round.  But it also doesn't mean you're an over-paying fool to take him at pick 80 if his ADP is 110.  The whole point of 'reaching' is to get your guy relatively safely before you think your opponents will start targeting him.  

 

How far I reach depends on how confident I feel in the player.  If I feel really good about a player, I don't mind reaching a bit more to make sure I get them.  Others that I feel good but not great about, I'll reach a round or two depending on the circumstances.  You just have to be OK with not getting that player if someone else jumps in earlier.  

 

ADP is all just an arbitrary pricing system that is set mostly by so-called "experts" ranking players.  The "experts" rank everyone, and the majority of leagues will roughly follow those rankings when they draft, and that will make up the ADP.  In the end, a player's ADP means nothing if there is more than one owner in your league that values him higher - the draft cost of a player is going to vary from league to league.  And I'm sure if you look back at last year's draft, there will be plenty of examples of players that were picked around their "ADP" that look glaringly over-drafted or under-drafted.  

 

At the end of the day I want to win or lose based on my own judgments of players, not what the 'experts' or masses say.  If you think "reaching" is silly and ADP is king, that means you're letting the masses decide who you should select for your team.  If I'm going to lose I'd rather it be because I was wrong about the players I wanted, instead of the 'experts' and masses being wrong.  Control your own destiny!

 

Agreed.

 

I think a lot of it has to do with just knowing your own league and the tendencies of your fellow managers. If you pay attention at the draft and monitor what they typically do with waiver/FA pickups throughout the season, you get to know which manager is always targeting young guys, which manager loads up on pitching, which manager has a man -crush on this player, etc. That way you can get a general idea on how far you might have to reach to get a certain guy and decide if it's worth it or not.

 

We have a guy in our live draft every year that starts getting really pissy when people start deviating from ADP (>20 spots) and takes the guys he wants. Every year he complains loudly when it happens, but he never changes his ways. IMO, that behavior is much more detrimental to a draft than reaching is.

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17 minutes ago, CharlesHustle said:

Has anyone ever had success at stock piling closer in the draft i.e. 4 plus?

 

 

I have noticed in my home league, the past 2 champions drafted 4-5 and when they have a lead of 10-15 saves, they start trading for great profit.

 

 

I am usually the guy who drafts a closer in the 8th, then 1 in the 12th or so and uses FAAB all year putting things together.

 

I usually try to draft 3, but I've never felt the need for more than that.  If you can be on top of closer movement around the league, you can easily get new closers throughout the season.  I routinely end up among the save leaders in my leagues and usually can use them as trade currency.

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Have used the 4+closers in YPro H2H (punting k&w) with great success until last year when more managers caught on. This year drafting closers is a waste of time when the closer run starts in the third round.

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Is this a suicidal strategy? Don’t do a lot of H2H

6x6 H2H, OBP and QS

$260 Auction, 12 teams

 

Spending $246 on your offense and hoping to win almost every week 5-1 and 6-0

 

While getting nine $1 SPs and going for 2 start wins and piling up Ks 

 

Best case is winning weeks 7-5 and 8-4

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On 3/16/2018 at 8:55 AM, handyandy86 said:

If I'm going to lose I'd rather it be because I was wrong about the players I wanted, instead of the 'experts' and masses being wrong.  Control your own destiny!

 

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I don't think the idea of "don't reach" is necessarily a great one. If you really believe a guy is going to do something special, it might be worth it to push him a round or two. I wouldn't do it with a bunch of players, but if we're talking about your one "guy," yeah I might take a leap. 

 

Who knows, sometimes you reaching for something can cause a cascade throughout the draft as other people react to your reach (thinking that you know something) and then you might even find other pieces falling into your lap. I way overreached for Lucroy last year (dumb), but as soon as I did that, a bunch of my league members started chasing catching thinking I was onto something, which let me get some other value picks as they overreached even more than I did.

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Yeah you can't blindly follow adp and expert/site rankings. Especially if you mix up the categories a little, which is a good reasoon to do so. They are just helpful in guessing where guys will be taken, which is your true aim. 

 

But, again, you probably have a 5-10% chance to win your league all other things being equal. So you need everything to fall into place. 

 

Assuming the markets are at least kinda smart, getting your brilliant pick later will give you a better chance to win. 

 

Say a version of yourself came from the future and said "ask that girl from work out. She likes you! Oh and Godly is going to win the Cy and Gallo is going to hit .260 and play a full year." 

 

The later you took them, the more likely this info would be to help you win the league. If you got them close to adp you'd be in great shape. With this absolute certainty you could reach pretty far, but irl you don't have that. 

 

I'm not saying you can't reach 15 picks past where you guess a guy will go, but that there is a lot of value in gutting it out. And you generally don't want to miss value because you think there is a 20% chance you'll miss your personal target. You should often shoot for that max value of getting that safe pick this pick AND your target so you can hit the longshot of building a league winning team. 

 

Obviously it all depends on the situation though. 

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35 minutes ago, GamblorLA said:

Yeah you can't blindly follow adp and expert/site rankings. Especially if you mix up the categories a little, which is a good reasoon to do so. They are just helpful in guessing where guys will be taken, which is your true aim. 

 

But, again, you probably have a 5-10% chance to win your league all other things being equal. So you need everything to fall into place. 

 

Assuming the markets are at least kinda smart, getting your brilliant pick later will give you a better chance to win. 

 

Say a version of yourself came from the future and said "ask that girl from work out. She likes you! Oh and Godly is going to win the Cy and Gallo is going to hit .260 and play a full year." 

 

The later you took them, the more likely this info would be to help you win the league. If you got them close to adp you'd be in great shape. With this absolute certainty you could reach pretty far, but irl you don't have that. 

 

I'm not saying you can't reach 15 picks past where you guess a guy will go, but that there is a lot of value in gutting it out. And you generally don't want to miss value because you think there is a 20% chance you'll miss your personal target. You should often shoot for that max value of getting that safe pick this pick AND your target so you can hit the longshot of building a league winning team. 

 

Obviously it all depends on the situation though. 

It also depends on why you're overreaching though, and how it fits into your league right?

 

If I'm in a keeper/dynasty league, overreaching for a player on the prediction that they're going to have a career year that leads to a Cy or MVP is one kind of gamble. If I'm overreaching for say, an Acuña type because I think he's going to be the cornerstone of my team for the next five years, that's seems different. If it's just a straight redraft, the calculus changes again.

 

Applying a one-size fits all mantra about how to approach drafting probably will never work. It'll depend on your league setup, your own team situation and even your fellow league managers. I know for example that one of my leagues is made up wholly of fans of one team. That adds a certain type of irrationality to the mix that I've seen on display, which means my approach to drafting has to take that into account a bit.

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Does anyone have thoughts/experience punting Wins and Ks in a 5X5 12 team roto league? I am experimenting with it on Yahoo and am leaning toward doing it after seeing my draft results. It seems like a sure fire way to land within the top 3 at the end of the season. 

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10 minutes ago, wxmilkman said:

Does anyone have thoughts/experience punting Wins and Ks in a 5X5 12 team roto league? I am experimenting with it on Yahoo and am leaning toward doing it after seeing my draft results. It seems like a sure fire way to land within the top 3 at the end of the season. 

Wait, ROTO league? Not H2h?

 

NEVER, and i mean EVER punt anything in Roto unless you are in NBA roto and have Dwight Howard.

DO NOT punt two categories in roto, my god, that will be a disaster.

 

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go back and look at your drafts from last year. you will see so many bust/bad picks (hindsight 20/20) in the middle rds

reaching isnt a problem after pick 75ish if your smart about it and dont reach for a bunch of players. your going to miss on alot of picks in the 75-250 range

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I looked just for fun at my draft from last year to see how bad it was. 

 

Quote

11 - Anthony Rizzo

18 - Joey Votto

39 - Christian Yelich

46 - A.J. Pollock

67 -Jacob deGrom

74 - J.D. Martinez

95 - Kevin Gausman

102 - Jonathan Lucroy

123 - Addison Russell

130 - Odubel Herrera  

151 - Matt Shoemaker

158 - Lance McCullers Jr.

179 - Joc Pederson  

186 - Aaron Nola

207 - Jim Johnson

214 - Sean Manaea 

235 - Devon Travis

242 - Hector Neris

263 - Brandon Drury

270 - Orlando Arcia

291 - Jorge Soler

298 - Dylan Bundy

319 - Hernan Perez

326 - Travis Jankowski

347 - Koda Glover

354 - Carter Capps

375 - Andrew Toles

382 - Ryan Pressly

 

I have no idea how I managed to win that league after I whiffed on so many players. I think at least 13 of those players ended up injured or underperforming.

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