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Fantasy Strategy Thread

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4 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

draft is lesssss than 1.3 

trades and f/a is where leagues are won

Yeah, that's the truth.

 

I didn't make a single trade last year, but I won my league on the waiver wire. That's why (going back to the kind of original discussion) I don't mind the idea of aiming a little high to get "my guy" in the draft. If I whiff, big deal, it's not going to total my season. Might as well get someone I've researched and feel strongly about rather than searching for a bunch of ADP steals that have just as high a likelihood of ending up injured, benchwarmers or back in MiLB.

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4 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

draft is lesssss than 1.3 

trades and f/a is where leagues are won

 

I used to think drafting was 2/3. But especially last year it seemed like the winning teams were the ones that made key FA pickups - Judge, Hoskins, Thames, Olson, Schoop, etc.

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7 hours ago, colepenhagen said:

draft is lesssss than 1.3 

trades and f/a is where leagues are won

 

3 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

I used to think drafting was 2/3. But especially last year it seemed like the winning teams were the ones that made key FA pickups - Judge, Hoskins, Thames, Olson, Schoop, etc.

 

The relative importance of your draft depends on your league depth. My league is 20 teams, 23-man rosters, so the importance of a good draft is higher. Three of those five guys UberRebel named were drafted in my league.

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4 hours ago, UberRebel said:

 

I used to think drafting was 2/3. But especially last year it seemed like the winning teams were the ones that made key FA pickups - Judge, Hoskins, Thames, Olson, Schoop, etc.

 

 

Always the guys who get 2-3 hot tomaters during the year.

 

Last year my home league champ owned Judge, Morton, Stanton and Verlander..............

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1 hour ago, Grinner said:

 

 

The relative importance of your draft depends on your league depth. My league is 20 teams, 23-man rosters, so the importance of a good draft is higher. Three of those five guys UberRebel named were drafted in my league.

correct

League size ....  regular 12 team league on ESPN  we start 22 and then add in bench bats ... you are drafting into the 300's

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have my 4 player keeper 12 Team H2H Each Cat 6X6 draft this afternoon. A change made from last year is we now have a 96 IP cap. This change will effect me and others in the league greatly, as last year I would often win W, QS, and K's off sheer volume of streaming SP's. I was just looking over some of my matchups last year and some week's I would have 140+ IP. Any suggestions on how this should potentially effect my draft strategy? Should I focus on getting more stud SP's that I wouldnt be dropping for streaming options?

 

This wasnt just me as many of my oppositions in these matchups had inflated IP as well, just trying to get the step up on taking this into consideration. 

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In those leagues, get high K/9 pitchers. Those are often RP but the few SP who do it are now more valuable. 

 

So I’d say spend extra on a couple stud SP, draft a lot of solid RP, and still stream when necessary. 

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14 hours ago, Grinner said:

 

 

The relative importance of your draft depends on your league depth. My league is 20 teams, 23-man rosters, so the importance of a good draft is higher. Three of those five guys UberRebel named were drafted in my league.

 

Yeah...Judge, Hoskins, Schoop, and Thames were drafted in my 12-team, 30-man keeper league (two available NA slots). 

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Okay...so I joined a keeper league this year, and all the settings looked good. We're currently in the early portion of our slow draft, and I thought I'd look to see how many DL slots we have. Shame on me...I should have known this before I agreed to join. But it has zero DL slots. The commish told me that we have a 20-man active roster and 8-man benches, so DL slots are not necessary.

 

I honestly don't understand it. I run a league that has 22 active and 8 bench spots, and we have 5 DL slots. We had teams that regularly ran with 6-8 DL'd players and even  a couple of teams that hit double-digit DL'd players. I disagree with having no DL slots, but it is what it is at this point...I've paid my money and we're drafting. 

 

Is there anyone here who plays in no-DL leagues? If so, do you do anything differently...is there a different strategy you use? I've literally never played in a league with no DL slots (and that includes an AL-only Ultra league...40-man rosters).

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23 hours ago, bmz0709 said:

have my 4 player keeper 12 Team H2H Each Cat 6X6 draft this afternoon. A change made from last year is we now have a 96 IP cap. This change will effect me and others in the league greatly, as last year I would often win W, QS, and K's off sheer volume of streaming SP's. I was just looking over some of my matchups last year and some week's I would have 140+ IP. Any suggestions on how this should potentially effect my draft strategy? Should I focus on getting more stud SP's that I wouldnt be dropping for streaming options?

 

This wasnt just me as many of my oppositions in these matchups had inflated IP as well, just trying to get the step up on taking this into consideration. 

 

96 IP is still a pretty high number - I looked back at my league last year, and I never exceeded 96 IP, and I was usually more in the 60-70 IP range.  Either way, if it's going to mean a reduction in streaming for you, then the most logical answer is to go with some better quality arms.  I wouldn't go too overboard with drafting SP's because I personally find them a bit too volatile, but it's generally a good idea to get yourself an "ace" in the first 3-4 rounds, load up on bats for a few more rounds, and then grab some more decent pitchers.

 

I'm finding really good value in the 100-140 pick range at SP, and I find myself going on a run of 3 or 4 straight SP's in this range and ending up with pitching that I'm really happy with.  I'll take 1 SP in my first 7-8 rounds, otherwise load up on good bats, and then take pitching in rounds 9-12/13, and end up with a staff like: Syndergaard, Hendricks, Wood, Godley, Castillo.  

 

As another poster said, you can always use some elite middle reliever types, like Andrew Miller, Chad Green, etc since they put up elite numbers in a smaller sample size.  In theory, a pair of MR's like Miller and Green will add together to give you a sub-2 ERA, sub-1 WHIP, and 200+K, but obviously be taking up 2 roster spots.  

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9 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Okay...so I joined a keeper league this year, and all the settings looked good. We're currently in the early portion of our slow draft, and I thought I'd look to see how many DL slots we have. Shame on me...I should have known this before I agreed to join. But it has zero DL slots. The commish told me that we have a 20-man active roster and 8-man benches, so DL slots are not necessary.

 

I honestly don't understand it. I run a league that has 22 active and 8 bench spots, and we have 5 DL slots. We had teams that regularly ran with 6-8 DL'd players and even  a couple of teams that hit double-digit DL'd players. I disagree with having no DL slots, but it is what it is at this point...I've paid my money and we're drafting. 

 

Is there anyone here who plays in no-DL leagues? If so, do you do anything differently...is there a different strategy you use? I've literally never played in a league with no DL slots (and that includes an AL-only Ultra league...40-man rosters).

 

Sit in a corner and cry.

 

Lol, in all seriousness though, I'm not sure there's a lot you can do.  Everyone already kind of drafts trying to avoid "injury prone" players, because they are not producing for you, whether they're on your bench or in a DL slot.  I would just try to be even more hyper aware of the injury history of players, but obviously injuries are very hard to predict.  

 

If anything I might tend to invest a bit more in hitting early.  It might be mis-guided, but I feel a bit safer investing high picks in bats with long track records of good health, than I do in higher end pitching.  A large proportion of the top SP's have missed big chunks of time in the last few seasons.  

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On 3/15/2018 at 8:15 PM, BostonCajun said:

 

Yeah I’m with you. Draft who you believe in. Don’t follow ADP as your end all be all. It’s a good reference point when gauging what the market value is but do know how many leagues those ADP lists are made from?? Do you know how many bogus leagues are involved in that? I have a very difficult time believing every league accounted for in those lists take fantasy baseball as seriously as my league does or as seriously as the guys in this forum. Therefore I make my own rankings and don’t follow the drafting habits of millions of people who I don’t know or trust their baseball knowledge. 

This. I reach like Stretch Armstrong and Inspector Gadget, as needed.

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10 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

Okay...so I joined a keeper league this year, and all the settings looked good. We're currently in the early portion of our slow draft, and I thought I'd look to see how many DL slots we have. Shame on me...I should have known this before I agreed to join. But it has zero DL slots. The commish told me that we have a 20-man active roster and 8-man benches, so DL slots are not necessary.

 

I honestly don't understand it. I run a league that has 22 active and 8 bench spots, and we have 5 DL slots. We had teams that regularly ran with 6-8 DL'd players and even  a couple of teams that hit double-digit DL'd players. I disagree with having no DL slots, but it is what it is at this point...I've paid my money and we're drafting. 

 

Is there anyone here who plays in no-DL leagues? If so, do you do anything differently...is there a different strategy you use? I've literally never played in a league with no DL slots (and that includes an AL-only Ultra league...40-man rosters).

My major keeper league has no DL either.  It isn't a huge deal with 8 bench slots (we have 6) - just have to look at your format and decide how much value the bench has.  If you have no IP, GS, AB, etc. limit, then they are probably more valuable as you can stream for additional production and a disabled player kills that.  If you really can't do much more than play your starters and your bench is about holding talent to replace those starters then it seems a lesser risk to carry someone who is hurt.

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On 3/18/2018 at 10:01 AM, bmz0709 said:

have my 4 player keeper 12 Team H2H Each Cat 6X6 draft this afternoon. A change made from last year is we now have a 96 IP cap. This change will effect me and others in the league greatly, as last year I would often win W, QS, and K's off sheer volume of streaming SP's. I was just looking over some of my matchups last year and some week's I would have 140+ IP. Any suggestions on how this should potentially effect my draft strategy? Should I focus on getting more stud SP's that I wouldnt be dropping for streaming options?

 

This wasnt just me as many of my oppositions in these matchups had inflated IP as well, just trying to get the step up on taking this into consideration. 

K/9 is your friend here.  RPs become gold too,  the IP cap will make people scared.  Most will top out around 85 to play it safe.  What's your minimum ip? A punt SP/ one ace only + a bunch of RP can be viable possibly

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My objective everywhere this year roto play

 

End the draft with a .272 BA, 1050 runs, 140 SB

 

Bottom 3 in RBI and HR but easy striking distance to get to the top 5 easy

 

I find it much easier to find power vs the other cats

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I've been very successful over the past 4 years using 2 different strategies. Both were used in H2H 5x5 weekly leagues. 

 

The first one I used was very demanding managing wise. Basic concept was stacking my hitting and not drafting really any pitching at all. Then every Sunday, pickup every 2 pitch starter that I could for the following week.  This would allow me to take W's and K's most weeks. Also keeping up with closers, always having at least 4 to ensure saves.  So I was pretty much punting ERA / WHIP every week.  The demanding part was trying to maximize my pitching with the limited moves every week (6).  I never won a league using this method but I did finish 2nd and 3rd the two attempts I gave it.  

 

After two long seasons of that method I looked hard into something else that might be easier and less time consuming.  I forgot where I read it but it was labeled the CARS strategy. Standing for Closers - Aces - Runs - Steals.  This focuses on categories that go completely against the grain of most people's draft. Loading up on all pitching to include stud closers.  While in the back end of the draft get the boring hitters who have no power and steal bases / score runs.  I dominated pitching every week without doubt, no one could really match me at all in pitching. Meanwhile I would always win steals and also managed to win runs about 60% of the time. BA would always be a toss up but I tried to keep those low average guys off my team. It was a boring strategy but I would win mostly every week 6-4. I did this the last two years and won the championship both times.  I love this way more than my first strategy because it's very little maintenance.  I'll be doing this again this year, I'm excited for baseball to start!

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Are there any resources out there to guage the average winning stats in a roto league based on the league size?

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38 minutes ago, xo0p said:

I've been very successful over the past 4 years using 2 different strategies. Both were used in H2H 5x5 weekly leagues. 

 

The first one I used was very demanding managing wise. Basic concept was stacking my hitting and not drafting really any pitching at all. Then every Sunday, pickup every 2 pitch starter that I could for the following week.  This would allow me to take W's and K's most weeks. Also keeping up with closers, always having at least 4 to ensure saves.  So I was pretty much punting ERA / WHIP every week.  The demanding part was trying to maximize my pitching with the limited moves every week (6).  I never won a league using this method but I did finish 2nd and 3rd the two attempts I gave it.  

 

After two long seasons of that method I looked hard into something else that might be easier and less time consuming.  I forgot where I read it but it was labeled the CARS strategy. Standing for Closers - Aces - Runs - Steals.  This focuses on categories that go completely against the grain of most people's draft. Loading up on all pitching to include stud closers.  While in the back end of the draft get the boring hitters who have no power and steal bases / score runs.  I dominated pitching every week without doubt, no one could really match me at all in pitching. Meanwhile I would always win steals and also managed to win runs about 60% of the time. BA would always be a toss up but I tried to keep those low average guys off my team. It was a boring strategy but I would win mostly every week 6-4. I did this the last two years and won the championship both times.  I love this way more than my first strategy because it's very little maintenance.  I'll be doing this again this year, I'm excited for baseball to start!

 

I did something similar this year as well loading up on pitching best I could as I'm in H2H as well. We only have a 30 IP minimum weekly so I grabbed Kluber, Verlander, Severino, Chapman, Knebel, and Green as my stud pitchers. W is a toss up and SV can be obtained throughout the year. Kind of just going with the flow on this too as it seems to be fluky sometimes. I'd also wreck my ERA and WHIP by chasing saves from crappy closers. I should be able to win ERA/WHIP/BB most weeks and potentially K unless the other team streams a ton of SP. 

 

Then I balanced the rest of my hitting with the likes of Carpenter, Turner, Seager, Cano, etc. 

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On 3/17/2018 at 8:39 PM, Philoumenos said:

I looked just for fun at my draft from last year to see how bad it was. 

 

 

I have no idea how I managed to win that league after I whiffed on so many players. I think at least 13 of those players ended up injured or underperforming.

 

Funny. I looked back at my draft and was surprised at how much I crushed it. However, due to poor management, such as churning out Domingo, I only finished third. 

 

But there was a good example of my point. I thought Jose Ramirez would be ranked top 50 and didn't understand why he wasn't. Posters here cemented this view. I considered him at pick 61 just to be sure I got him where I thought he'd show a profit, but i took deGrom and Jose was still there at 84. This decision saved me from my in season incompetence and allowed me to cash. 

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On 3/16/2018 at 7:47 AM, CharlesHustle said:

Has anyone ever had success at stock piling closer in the draft i.e. 4 plus?

 

 

I have noticed in my home league, the past 2 champions drafted 4-5 and when they have a lead of 10-15 saves, they start trading for great profit.

 

 

I am usually the guy who drafts a closer in the 8th, then 1 in the 12th or so and uses FAAB all year putting things together.

We do W+MS as a category, so every starter gets a chance at 2 counting when they go out, plus K's etc.  So even 3 closers while it might have you doing well in saves (assuming none implode) puts you behind in other categories.  So those trades usually end up as some mid tier starter for his mid tier closer.  Not pulling a ransom like they might have thought.  

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On 3/17/2018 at 8:48 PM, colepenhagen said:

draft is lesssss than 1.3 

trades and f/a is where leagues are won

Obviously in keeper leagues, the keepers have a big part of a team success.  Although I have used this example, guy had Mike Trout for $1 as a keeper for 3 years and failed to finish in the money any of those years. 

 

* No draft or auction is gonna be perfect, I think its a good foundation but how you manage the team the rest of the year is gonna make or break you.  

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15 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Funny. I looked back at my draft and was surprised at how much I crushed it. However, due to poor management, such as churning out Domingo, I only finished third. 

 

But there was a good example of my point. I thought Jose Ramirez would be ranked top 50 and didn't understand why he wasn't. Posters here cemented this view. I considered him at pick 61 just to be sure I got him where I thought he'd show a profit, but i took deGrom and Jose was still there at 84. This decision saved me from my in season incompetence and allowed me to cash. 

This kind of all goes back to the beginning of the discussion about ADP though.

 

You can crush a draft and not win your league, you can flub a draft and lose the league. The season is started in the draft for sure, but overreaching ADP isn't going to kill you. Unless I suppose you overreach for every single pick and get every single one wrong or something silly.

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20 hours ago, GamblorLA said:

 

Funny. I looked back at my draft and was surprised at how much I crushed it. However, due to poor management, such as churning out Domingo, I only finished third. 

 

But there was a good example of my point. I thought Jose Ramirez would be ranked top 50 and didn't understand why he wasn't. Posters here cemented this view. I considered him at pick 61 just to be sure I got him where I thought he'd show a profit, but i took deGrom and Jose was still there at 84. This decision saved me from my in season incompetence and allowed me to cash. 

 

You could have also drafted Jose Ramirez at 61 and Zack Greinke at 84 and maybe won the league. 

 

There's more wins in picking the right players than maximizing ADP. 

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What if you're in a league where people don't tend to trade a whole lot? Best thing to do is work that waiver wire like no other, and don't drop anyone you'll regret later. Patience is key.

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Anyone taking the strategy of going heavy on SB and runs with decent AVG knowing power if easier to find?

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