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Fantasy Strategy Thread

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Currently my H2H points league favors pitchers. Based on Steamer projections applied to my scoring, the top 50 will be split 29 Bats, 21 Pitchers.

 

We are voting on a rule change that would buff hitters. Based on this change, the top 50 players are projected to be 44 Batters, 6 Pitchers.

 

I think the league is under estimating how much of an effect this will have. Perhaps I am over estimating the effect this will have. 

 

I am trying to get a gauge of where the most value will be. 

 

Part of me thinks while everyone is targeting pitchers in the 1/2/3 rounds (Pitchers go very early in this league) I should take these bats the league is letting fall to me because these bats will score more points than the pitchers being taken ahead of them. Plus pitchers seem to get hurt more often?

 

Part of me thinks because the lower bats have been boosted up by , I should target pitchers even earlier and more often knowing there will be good bats out there.

 

I don't know if I should Zig or Zag? Based on these steamer projections, it looks like hitters are going to get anywhere from a 15% Buff to a 30% Buff. 

 

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No idea how to approach picks 50-70 in a 6x6 obp league. Not a ton of hitters I like in that range other than Gallo 

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On 3/18/2018 at 8:33 PM, Flyman75 said:

Okay...so I joined a keeper league this year, and all the settings looked good. We're currently in the early portion of our slow draft, and I thought I'd look to see how many DL slots we have. Shame on me...I should have known this before I agreed to join. But it has zero DL slots. The commish told me that we have a 20-man active roster and 8-man benches, so DL slots are not necessary.

 

I honestly don't understand it. I run a league that has 22 active and 8 bench spots, and we have 5 DL slots. We had teams that regularly ran with 6-8 DL'd players and even  a couple of teams that hit double-digit DL'd players. I disagree with having no DL slots, but it is what it is at this point...I've paid my money and we're drafting. 

 

Is there anyone here who plays in no-DL leagues? If so, do you do anything differently...is there a different strategy you use? I've literally never played in a league with no DL slots (and that includes an AL-only Ultra league...40-man rosters).

That stinks, so instead being able to use bench wisely, take some gambles, etc your basically filling with injury replacements.  I understand where some leagues (especially keepers) dont like guys drafting and stashing of DL guys and thats fine, but why not make a rule that only guys who got hurt AFTER you acquired them can go on the DL?  

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Hear me out. 

 

What if, instead of trying to win every category in a standard 5x5 HTH league, I concentrated on winning the categories that are usually toss ups?

 

What if I built my team to win AVG/SB/R by picking up the high average speedsters?

 

What if I built my team to dominate the S/ERA/WHIP categories by selecting the best relievers and filled my SP slots with great relievers who have SP qualifications?

 

I think it’s an interesting strategy, and it’s one I’d like to try out. 

 

Can anybody point out some standout players I should target for a strategy like this? 

 

My hardest positions to fill will be 1B and C, I’d imagine. Heck, I might leave them blank if I can’t find a guy who can at least hit for a decent average in those positions (Lord knows there’s rarely any speed behind the plate). 

 

Honestly guys, I took a couple of years off of playing serious fantasy baseball and I want to come back trying a totally different strategy. 

 

Any and all help is appreciated. 

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9 minutes ago, krunchyfrogg said:

Hear me out. 

 

What if, instead of trying to win every category in a standard 5x5 HTH league, I concentrated on winning the categories that are usually toss ups?

 

What if I built my team to win AVG/SB/R by picking up the high average speedsters?

 

What if I built my team to dominate the S/ERA/WHIP categories by selecting the best relievers and filled my SP slots with great relievers who have SP qualifications?

 

I think it’s an interesting strategy, and it’s one I’d like to try out. 

 

Can anybody point out some standout players I should target for a strategy like this? 

 

My hardest positions to fill will be 1B and C, I’d imagine. Heck, I might leave them blank if I can’t find a guy who can at least hit for a decent average in those positions (Lord knows there’s rarely any speed behind the plate). 

 

Honestly guys, I took a couple of years off of playing serious fantasy baseball and I want to come back trying a totally different strategy. 

 

Any and all help is appreciated. 

In a mock went Trea, pitcher, then Gordon. By the end of the draft felt I had SB, runs, and ave pretty well locked and surprisingly felt at least competitive in HR and RBI. Relief pitcher strategy pretty much, even in mocks, doesn't work any more. 

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Just now, Low and Away said:

In a mock went Trea, pitcher, then Gordon. By the end of the draft felt I had SB, runs, and ave pretty well locked and surprisingly felt at least competitive in HR and RBI. Relief pitcher strategy pretty much, even in mocks, doesn't work any more. 

 

Agree, I've gone Trea, lock up Dee in the 2nd then pitching over and over and over, sprinkle in Inciarte and Lemahieu then more pitching. Stream C and 1b, try and get Nunez and Harrison for 3b and flexibility. Denard Span and Joe Panik are 2 lead off hitters with solid average you can have with your last 2 picks.

 

@krunchyfrogglike low and away said get SP too so your dominant in all 5 pitching cats not just Saves, ERA and Whip to go along with .BA, Runs and SB.

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Wow, I guess the guys I play with seem to ignore the SB/runs and go heavy on HR /RBI because they seem to nab you more on the surface. 

 

I guess ill have have to rethink things. TY. 

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1 hour ago, krunchyfrogg said:

Wow, I guess the guys I play with seem to ignore the SB/runs and go heavy on HR /RBI because they seem to nab you more on the surface. 

 

I guess ill have have to rethink things. TY. 

 

Do yourself a favor and look up the top 40 players in runs. I think you'll find something very common among them (hint: most of them also hit a lot of HRs/RBI).

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10 hours ago, cdd10 said:

HR/RBI are less valuable these days 

 

I think this is a bit of a misconception. Power is up all across the league, it isn't just benefiting certain players. So the best power hitters still have an advantage. 

 

Also the power hitters that fetch a premium are the ones that don't hurt you in other categories. You can draft cheap power late, but they'll also likely be a drag in AVG/OBP and R/SB. 

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4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I think this is a bit of a misconception. Power is up all across the league, it isn't just benefiting certain players. So the best power hitters still have an advantage. 

 

Also the power hitters that fetch a premium are the ones that don't hurt you in other categories. You can draft cheap power late, but they'll also likely be a drag in AVG/OBP and R/SB. 

 

 

Thats a very good point; thanks for that insight.

 

Maybe a better way to phrase the trend is something like “Power is up, but power with AVG and/or SB is still scarce and more valuable than ever.”

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On 3/5/2018 at 6:10 AM, handyandy86 said:

A big problem with high end pitching in H2H is that often it's not there when you need it.  I used to build teams primarily around a really strong pitching staff, and I'd always dominate the regular season, but rarely have playoff success.  Too often you hit the end of the MLB regular season and you have some of the following scenarios:

a. their team is playoff-bound and is resting their ace

b. their team is way out of the playoff race and is shutting down their ace due to the minor lingering issues accumulated over the season

c. the pitcher is young and on an innings cap / limit

d. they're just not as effective and fresh at the end of the season from being worn down

 

When I used to invest heavily in SPing, I'd find that come fantasy playoffs I'd lose roughly half my aces to one of these scenarios (or just injuries in general).  That's fine if you've been lucky with waiver wire bats, but if your draft was structured around pitching, you'll have a tough time winning in H2H when it matters the most.  

 

I also just like the value of SP this year in the 75+ pick range.  After you get past the top 4-5, I don't feel a whole lot more confident with pitchers in the 3rd round (Severino, de Grom) then ones a few rounds later, like Wood or Castillo.  

 

This is the most important post in this thread in regards to h2h.

 

For anyone unfamiliar, go back and look at last year's player outlook threads for any starting pitcher worth a damn. They're filled with late August and September posts about how this pitcher is being shutdown, or that team is moving to a six man rotation, or that pitcher is on an innings limit or his 2nd start is being scratched or his 1st start is being pushed back or scratched, or he is only going to throw 50 pitches or pitch for three innings or he is going to make an appearance in relief...

 

Hitters have a much smaller window at the end of the season where their usage will be put into question. 

 

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1 hour ago, disasterisk said:

 

This is the most important post in this thread in regards to h2h.

 

For anyone unfamiliar, go back and look at last year's player outlook threads for any starting pitcher worth a damn. They're filled with late August and September posts about how this pitcher is being shutdown, or that team is moving to a six man rotation, or that pitcher is on an innings limit or his 2nd start is being scratched or his 1st start is being pushed back or scratched, or he is only going to throw 50 pitches or pitch for three innings or he is going to make an appearance in relief...

 

Hitters have a much smaller window at the end of the season where their usage will be put into question. 

 

I usually take a top 5 starter every year and I've never had a problem with them getting shut down.  Usually a top 5 starter is on playoff bound team and these guys need to stay sharp heading into the post season.  Where you run into trouble is if you have a top starter on a crappy team.  Those guys may get shut down at the end of the year but even then it's not a given.  If the Giants suck again this year, I doubt MadBum is gonna get shut down unless he's injured or something.  If he wants to pitch he'll pitch.  A guy like Syndergaard on the other hand is a real threat to get shut down since he hasn't really proven he's a workhorse and the Met's might baby him if they're out of the race.

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58 minutes ago, Bill Blazejowski said:

I usually take a top 5 starter every year and I've never had a problem with them getting shut down.  Usually a top 5 starter is on playoff bound team and these guys need to stay sharp heading into the post season.  Where you run into trouble is if you have a top starter on a crappy team.  Those guys may get shut down at the end of the year but even then it's not a given.  If the Giants suck again this year, I doubt MadBum is gonna get shut down unless he's injured or something.  If he wants to pitch he'll pitch.  A guy like Syndergaard on the other hand is a real threat to get shut down since he hasn't really proven he's a workhorse and the Met's might baby him if they're out of the race.

 

The problem is anyone can get shut down. You can pick pitchers on good teams, but if they're too far ahead in the playoff race they have no reason to risk injury to their stars either. If LAD are ahead in the West by 12 games the last week of the season, why throw Kershaw out there one last time and risk injury when he can just get a few extra days off? It's happened to me in past years too (Greinke I think). 

 

The point is you really can't predict it, because it can happen with good or bad teams. 

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10 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

The problem is anyone can get shut down. You can pick pitchers on good teams, but if they're too far ahead in the playoff race they have no reason to risk injury to their stars either. If LAD are ahead in the West by 12 games the last week of the season, why throw Kershaw out there one last time and risk injury when he can just get a few extra days off? It's happened to me in past years too (Greinke I think). 

 

The point is you really can't predict it, because it can happen with good or bad teams. 

I get what you're saying but I don't think it's anything to worry about before a draft.  I'm not going pass on Kershaw on the off chance they shut him down at the end of the year.  I'll cross that bridge when I get to it.  And if that situation does come up that means I've made it pretty deep into the playoffs and whose to say Kershaw wasn't the main reason why I'm there in the first place.

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Yeah for sure, I'm not saying don't ever draft pitching. I just tend to try to invest more in hitting early than pitching. If you spend a lot of draft capital on high end pitching and your hitting suffers because of it, then you are putting a lot of hope in those pitchers being available late in the season. 

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I think I'd be more concerned about a young pitcher getting shut down (and/or struggling at the backend of a long season) over an ace getting shut down. That definitely hurt me last year when Nola kind of started hurting towards the end, and Castillo got shut down. I had to scramble to find more arms for playoffs.

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I think this is the year to punt BA. Man I am getting some stellar teams by ignoring BA!!!! Most of them are going to be 1-2 in the other 4 cats

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On 3/17/2018 at 5:29 PM, wxmilkman said:

Does anyone have thoughts/experience punting Wins and Ks in a 5X5 12 team roto league? I am experimenting with it on Yahoo and am leaning toward doing it after seeing my draft results. It seems like a sure fire way to land within the top 3 at the end of the season. 

dear god

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On another note, it looks like I'm going to zig where others zag on SP this year and pass on the top 25 in one league, and i only have 2. 

 

One reason is It's an innings cap league.

 

Another is, everyone is big on SP this year so more top bats should be available. 

 

But another that occured to me is there should be a few more total garbage fires this year than usual, with some teams punting the season or still rebuilding. Meaning you can stream Mo'ne Davis against the Marlins, Royals and quite possibly the Tigers. The pirates, braves, white sox, rays and padres could all have really bad offenses as well with a few bad breaks. 

 

So I'm going to see what i can do with a big offence, good closers, a few top middle relievers, some high k late round starters like lemet and snell and streamers. I'll try for a rich hill type as my ace. 

 

I figure ks and saves will be good. Ratios decent. Wins, hopefully just not terrible. But like i said, if this is a year of the haves and have nots, with several teams losing tons of games, streaming wins should be a little easier than normal. 

 

You've also got the Tampa pitching situation to target, especially if one of their 4 starters is injured.  

 

 

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SP Strategy talk..

 

Is 2018 the year to target upside?

 

Drafted yesterday and the SP's were flying off the board. Nearly all the SP 1's were gone by pick 31. For better or worse, I always draft value over need, meaning 5/6 of my first picks were hitters. I then drafted 5 upside SP's in rounds 7-12 (McCullers, Godley, Castillo, Weaver, Price). 

 

I initially hated my draft. But not so sure if it's such a bad way to approach SP's this year given the inflated pricing. You get great value at the top of the Draft in Hitters (I was able to get Bryant, Correa, Donaldson, Springer w/ top 4 picks). And for SP's, instead of paying for the guys who are already there (Top 15), pay for the guys who have a decent chance of getting there. If even 1-2 of them get there, it's a big win.  Not the safest way to draft, but in terms of overall value throughout draft (Rounds 1-12), not a bad fall back (if pricing get out of hand w/ SP's at top).

 

 

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Yes i think that is the way to go in many formats. Innings cap for sure, since you can use middle relievers to stuff the innings.  

 

I also like it in daily leagues. 

 

It might be a problem in weeklies because of the disparity in number of innings with no clear way to make up for it. I guess you can grab at least 1 very good closer like osuna and stream some more 2 start guys 

 

But, between 2 teams, my highest pick on an SP will be Nola.  

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yeah i'm done drafting pitchers this year since i play H2H

 

last year i took kershaw / scherzer 1 and 2 and had great pitching all year, conflated by all other pitchers in the league getting injured. 

 

HOWEVER my fantasy playoffs had most of them shut down as mentioned above. lost due to that

 

i'm targeting SB again, and high AVG hitters. also Gary Sanchez at C

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