Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

auri

Fantasy Strategy Thread

Recommended Posts

This forum is only for overreactions to 3 games into the long season.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Bit more difficult to do after the draft has already occurred. Also quite a bit difficult to accomplish that in an 8 team league as your signature reads, as your offense is likely to be matched by another team's. And I would favor the elite middle relievers with high K/9 rates over closer depth. Also depends on whether your league has individual pitching slots broken down into SP and RP instead of just P and how many you can start each day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You really want to punt Wins (or QS) and K's?

Pretty hard to pull off in such a shallow league since a bunch of teams will have stacked rotations and can easily match the ratios of your relievers.

And your hitters would have to be clearly ahead of the league to even think about this.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thanks for the advice all...I probably won't go the closer/reliever only role since the league is small and we already drafted...just wanted to get a sense of if anyone had done this...Thanks again and appreciate the feed back

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, cs3 said:

You really want to punt Wins (or QS) and K's?

Pretty hard to pull off in such a shallow league since a bunch of teams will have stacked rotations and can easily match the ratios of your relievers.

And your hitters would have to be clearly ahead of the league to even think about this.

 

Stacked rotations will not compete with the ratios of elite relievers in h2h leagues with no minimum innings. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In H2H they most definitely will more often than you expect. It only takes 1 bad outing from a RP to ruin a week when you're only throwing 10-12 innings.

Over the course of the season obv the all reliever team can be expected to have better ratios, but there's big variation from week to week.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, cs3 said:

In H2H they most definitely will more often than you expect. It only takes 1 bad outing from a RP to ruin a week when you're only throwing 10-12 innings.

Over the course of the season obv the all reliever team can be expected to have better ratios, but there's big variation from week to week.

 

No, they won't. You aren't having your pitchers throw 10-12 innings if you are punting Ws and Ks anyway. Your only goal in h2h if it is 5x5 and you are punting Ws and Ks is to win ERA and WHIP. Saves are a bonus and depend on how your opponent constructed his team. You chase steals if your dreams of having a cleaning 1-2-3 inning at the start of the week never materialize.     

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WTF no.

If you're using only closers, then you need to win saves nearly 100% of the time.

Saves are not a "bonus" with that strategy. They are a necessity.

You cant win when you lose 3/5 or 4/6 pitching cats every single week, and then also lose the other 2 ratio cats whenever one of your closers gets blown up.

 

And any opponent who has 2 dominant starts at the beginning of the week will crush this strategy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Time for some in-season fantasy strategy discussion:

 

Maybe this is obvious to some, but I'm finding that positional scarcity means a lot more on my team in a shallower league than it does on my deeper league team.  Both are 12 teams, but one has all the standard positions, plus a 4th OF and 1 UT slot, and the other has 5 OF, 1 UT, 1 CI, and 1 MI.  It doesn't seem like a drastic difference in lineups, but when it comes to what players are sitting on waivers there are major differences.  

 

I won't go into great detail, but in the shallower league, the WW replacement level of the more 'stacked' positions (like 1B, 3B, OF) is very high, whereas in the deeper league the WW is full of trash.  Because of this, I'm finding that 'elite' options at a lot of these positions like CI spots give you much less of an advantage in the shallower league.  Everybody has a good 1B and 3B, so your great 1B is only marginally better than someone else's good 1B.  On the flip side, everyone has holes in their lineup in the deeper league, so just having high end hitting talent somewhere is an advantage in itself.

 

Without getting too Bench Coachy, in the shallower league I've been working on dealing off my high end players at "stacked" positions for slightly lower-ranked players at shallower positions.  I recently dealt a top-3 3B for a top-1 C, and while you would likely have drafted that 3B every time ahead of the C, I still feel like my lineup is overall better with that top C and then my "replacement level" 3B, vs when I had the top-3 3B and a replacement level C.  I was at a point where I had too many good bench bats, and not enough lineup slots to stick them in, and I am feeling pretty good about the move for now.

 

On the flip side, that type of trading doesn't look as appealing in my deeper league.  If I trade a top player at one position for a top player at another position, I am just creating a new hole to fill another one.  Even the WW corner infielders are pretty junk in that deeper league, so if I create a hole for myself there the replacement level player is going to be very poor.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In deeper leagues everyone's got holes somewhere and like you said, you're trading one hole for another unless you've got a great back up somewhere.  My league also uses 5 OF, MI, CI, and UT and in those types of leagues, there really isn't a "stacked" position since so many of those 1B, 3B, and OF are drafted to fill those CI, UT, bench spots.  It's even tough to have a decent backup unless you drafted him relatively high (for a bench player) or hit the waiver wire lottery.  Oddly enough, the least scarce position is catcher (everyone needs one but hardly anyone drafts more than one) yet that position is the most scarce due to the lack of talent.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/1/2018 at 7:37 PM, cs3 said:

WTF no.

If you're using only closers, then you need to win saves nearly 100% of the time.

Saves are not a "bonus" with that strategy. They are a necessity.

You cant win when you lose 3/5 or 4/6 pitching cats every single week, and then also lose the other 2 ratio cats whenever one of your closers gets blown up.

 

And any opponent who has 2 dominant starts at the beginning of the week will crush this strategy.

 

Again, no you don't need to win saves. Saves are a fallback option if your ERA/WHIP get burned because a middle reliever or closer doesn't have a clean inning to start the week. Your goal is to start 1 reliever with a clean inning. 

 

You absolutely can win with this strategy because you are going to win 4/5 or 5/5 hitting categories every week. 

 

2 dominant starts from your opponent at the beginning of the week mean nothing. You are forgetting that since this is H2H you are free to counter that by dropping your middle relievers (who aren't going to get picked up by another team) and picking up starters to stream, thereby taking Ks and Saves and perhaps Wins as well.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, disasterisk said:

you are going to win 4/5 or 5/5 hitting categories every week. 

 

no you aren't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have yet to see someone be successful long term or go deep into the playoffs with the all closers strategy. There's too little room for error and you have to sacrifice most of your 100-200 picks in the draft for closers when you could have had some breakout hitters. I'm not a big fan. 

 

However I've been loading up on good but not great pitchers with high k rates and decent whip, while getting an arsenal of elite middle relievers and I've been surprised how well my staff has been doing. 

 

For example:

 

Archer 

Tanaka

Arrietta 

Lynn

Roark

Samardjia 

 

Gsellman

Devenski

Chad green 

Hader

Reed

CJ Edwards

 

For me it's the best middle ground between all closers and the traditional starting pitching mix. If you go all starters then your ratios are gonna be meh. If you go all closers there is way too much volatility and I don't know that your offense is going to be great if you should miss on a couple of your top 100 picks (which most people do).

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, cs3 said:

no you aren't.

 

In h2h? If you take hitters for roughly the first three quarters of your draft, yes you are going to win hitting 4/5 or 5/5 every week. You are incapable of understanding how much freedom you have in h2h to pivot during the week if you do not need to worry about dedicating spots to starting pitchers.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

In h2h? If you take hitters for roughly the first three quarters of your draft, yes you are going to win hitting 4/5 or 5/5 every week. You are incapable of understanding how much freedom you have in h2h to pivot during the week if you do not need to worry about dedicating spots to starting pitchers.  

Your stance is you can win H2H using no SPs just quality RPs? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, shakestreet said:

Your stance is you can win H2H using no SPs just quality RPs? 

 

Yes that is how this discussion started although the original user wanted to attempt it after the draft had taken place by trading away his starters for closers. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 4/1/2018 at 4:47 PM, cs3 said:

In H2H they most definitely will more often than you expect. It only takes 1 bad outing from a RP to ruin a week when you're only throwing 10-12 innings.

Over the course of the season obv the all reliever team can be expected to have better ratios, but there's big variation from week to week.

Exactly, 1 mediocre outing when it comes to limited innings puts you in a tough spot

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Yes that is how this discussion started although the original user wanted to attempt it after the draft had taken place by trading away his starters for closers. 

Me personally no way you are going to win the whole enchilada... your team made get do ok but it ain’t winning the championship. 

 

 A guy in one of my 12 team 5x5 H2H has tried that way since 2015... In 2015/16 his team was beat in the semi’s last year he didn’t even make the playoffs. This year only one week he sits at 1-9. This league is very active .. this guy makes moves over 100 every year one year he made 190 I seen... we use CI/MI 4 OF & 1 util & 9 P slots & 5 bench  .... no playing without a catcher. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, shakestreet said:

Me personally no way you are going to win the whole enchilada... your team made get do ok but it ain’t winning the championship. 

 

 A guy in one of my 12 team 5x5 H2H has tried that way since 2015... In 2015/16 his team was beat in the semi’s last year he didn’t even make the playoffs. This year only one week he sits at 1-9. This league is very active .. this guy makes moves over 100 every year one year he made 190 I seen... we use CI/MI 4 OF & 1 util & 9 P slots & 5 bench  .... no playing without a catcher. 

 

Anecdotal evidence doesn't override industry consensus...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I drafted earlier than their projections

 

Chris Taylor 2B,LF,CF,RF

Ian Happ 2B,SS,LF,CF

Eduardo Nunez 2B,3B,SS,LF

 

With that I can have 1 or 2 maximum bench player and it gives me more SP that anybody else. When the weather will get warmer they will start to heat up hopefully

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In a 25 team league how do you typically allocate between pitchers and hitters? My default is 15 hitters (with a fourth player at each of OF, MI, and CI--one who plays in the utility spot and the others as fill ins for rest days and injuries) and 10 pitchers (6 SP, 4 RP) but I am trying adding a fifth RP (three closers plus Peacock and Devenski) at the expensive of a hitter in one league. 

 

Shorter version: how many bats do you truly need on a 25 player roster?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

In a 25 team league how do you typically allocate between pitchers and hitters? My default is 15 hitters (with a fourth player at each of OF, MI, and CI--one who plays in the utility spot and the others as fill ins for rest days and injuries) and 10 pitchers (6 SP, 4 RP) but I am trying adding a fifth RP (three closers plus Peacock and Devenski) at the expensive of a hitter in one league. 

 

Shorter version: how many bats do you truly need on a 25 player roster?

In a daily league, 1 bench bat is often enough. I like to think about utilization of those 2nd/3rd bench bats. An extra RP/SP you can use 100% of the time, but those extra bench bats probably less than 50%. Unless it's a super deep league where PT is king, then you can leave bats on the wire and pick up for injuries.

 

In a weekly league, only recommend bench bats if they are stashes (ex. Acuna, Senzel) or pure category plays (ex. Mallex Smith, Matt Davidson).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
42 minutes ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

I drafted earlier than their projections

 

Chris Taylor 2B,LF,CF,RF

Ian Happ 2B,SS,LF,CF

Eduardo Nunez 2B,3B,SS,LF

 

With that I can have 1 or 2 maximum bench player and it gives me more SP that anybody else. When the weather will get warmer they will start to heat up hopefully

Nice. I did something similar. Drafted Wil Myers (1B, OF), Dee Gordon (2B, OF), Manny Machado (3B, SS) & Zack Cozart (2B, SS, 3B).  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

In a 25 team league how do you typically allocate between pitchers and hitters? My default is 15 hitters (with a fourth player at each of OF, MI, and CI--one who plays in the utility spot and the others as fill ins for rest days and injuries) and 10 pitchers (6 SP, 4 RP) but I am trying adding a fifth RP (three closers plus Peacock and Devenski) at the expensive of a hitter in one league. 

 

Shorter version: how many bats do you truly need on a 25 player roster?

I have no set version how I make up my roster, my roster usually comes together from the draft. Also it depends on a rotisserie or h2h league. Most of my leagues are on ESPN with 5/6 bench ... we have. CI/MI and 5 OF with 1 util. 

 

17 minutes ago, Quinn the Ezkamo said:

In a daily league, 1 bench bat is often enough. I like to think about utilization of those 2nd/3rd bench bats. An extra RP/SP you can use 100% of the time, but those extra bench bats probably less than 50%. Unless it's a super deep league where PT is king, then you can leave bats on the wire and pick up for injuries.

 

In a weekly league, only recommend bench bats if they are stashes (ex. Acuna, Senzel) or pure category plays (ex. Mallex Smith, Matt Davidson).

So are you saying in a weekly league where you set your roster on Monday and forget it you roster Mallex Smith or Matt Davidson? Makes no sense in my book owning guys like that in a weekly league since no way in ever will I start those two over any of my starters 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Ace_King said:

In a 25 team league how do you typically allocate between pitchers and hitters? My default is 15 hitters (with a fourth player at each of OF, MI, and CI--one who plays in the utility spot and the others as fill ins for rest days and injuries) and 10 pitchers (6 SP, 4 RP) but I am trying adding a fifth RP (three closers plus Peacock and Devenski) at the expensive of a hitter in one league. 

 

Shorter version: how many bats do you truly need on a 25 player roster?

 

That depends entirely on the league and the approach of the other owners. Also depends on how many hitting slots there are, how many pitching slots there are (and whether they are the generic P or split between SP and RP), whether you have daily or weekly transactions, whether you have transaction limits or a free agent budget, if you have innings pitched min/max or a start min/max, the number of DL slots, etc. 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.