Ffguy0087

Allen Robinson 2017 Season Outlook

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In all my early mocks I've been subconsciously avoiding him every time, probably because I had him in 3/4 leagues and got burned badly.

 

He had a couple nice games towards the end of the year (on my bench...) after the HC change, so that could brighten his outlook a bit.

 

Third round? Anyone trusting the Bortles to AR15 connection this year?

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I want to so badly but you just can't at the price he is going at. I need to see a second good year. I've been burned by WRs with only one good year Braylon Edwards being the worst and probably the best comparison to AR15 in terms of one monster year and then falling off a cliff the next (and in Edwards case falling all the way to rock bottom while dropping every life line thrown to him along the way.)

 

The earliest I would consider him is the 4th round in standard. Bet someone takes a shot on him in the 3rd.

Edited by FreakFries

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Two things I really like about this guy are A.) Talent and B.) Targets. He had over 150 targets.  I think him and Hopkins are in for bounce back years for those reasons.  I'm not a huge Bortyles fan but we have seen the two have success together. The fact that Robinson is coming off a bad year is a good thing imo.  It will make him cheaper in the draft compared to last year.  I can certainly appreciate that.   

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Marquis Lee is their WR#2 and has been working out with Bortles during the off-season.  He has a 15th round ADP. 

I view these guys as a Cooper/Crabtree duo.  

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14 minutes ago, jmausen said:

Marquis Lee is their WR#2 and has been working out with Bortles during the off-season.  He has a 15th round ADP. 

I view these guys as a Cooper/Crabtree duo.  

 

I really like Lee a lot too but what about Hurns? I feel like he and Lee hurt eachother not only for production but for consistency as well.

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2 minutes ago, FreakFries said:

 

I really like Lee a lot too but what about Hurns? I feel like he and Lee hurt eachother not only for production but for consistency as well.

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9867/allen-hurns

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9402/marqise-lee

 

Lee took over #2 duties week 9.  Hurns didn't have hammy problems until week 13.  Hurns' ADP is undrafted.

 

JAX has a really soft schedule.  Lee gets the #2 CBs.  Getting 1 on 1 time with Bortles makes him a fantastic 15th round sleeper.

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4 minutes ago, jmausen said:

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9867/allen-hurns

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9402/marqise-lee

 

Lee took over #2 duties week 9.  Hurns didn't have hammy problems until week 13.  Hurns' ADP is undrafted.

 

JAX has a really soft schedule.  Lee gets the #2 CBs.  Getting 1 on 1 time with Bortles makes him a fantastic 15th round sleeper.

 

Hurns is the #2...and the only JAX WR signed beyond the 2017 season. 

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11 hours ago, mikeflavaz said:

Two things I really like about this guy are A.) Talent and B.) Targets. He had over 150 targets.  I think him and Hopkins are in for bounce back years for those reasons.  I'm not a huge Bortyles fan but we have seen the two have success together. The fact that Robinson is coming off a bad year is a good thing imo.  It will make him cheaper in the draft compared to last year.  I can certainly appreciate that.   

 

This

 

20 hours ago, Ffguy0087 said:

In all my early mocks I've been subconsciously avoiding him every time, probably because I had him in 3/4 leagues and got burned badly.

 

He had a couple nice games towards the end of the year (on my bench...) after the HC change, so that could brighten his outlook a bit.

 

Third round? Anyone trusting the Bortles to AR15 connection this year?

 

I'm not sayin he's QB-proof, but it's a bargain in the making, and if I can get him at a discount I'm in.

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It's difficult but I wouldn't draft him before round 4. He won't last until round 4 so I probably will not get him.

 

I had AR15 last year and thus forced myself to sit through a few Jaguars games and while AR15 had some drops, Bortels was un-f&#*ing-bellevably bad. At times it looked like he was playing blindfolded. That makes a difference.

 

Also - new coach, Tom Coughlin calling the shots and they just drafted Founette. Jobs are on the line and the Jags want to show some progress in the win column. Would you bet the season on Bortels? Looks to me like they are going to run first and then some. 

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1 hour ago, Fort4242 said:

What do people consider a discount for AR?  Third round?

Not really.   That's where I expect him to go considering he finished the year on the WW in many leagues. 

 

4th round I'd take the leap- as your wr2.  A functional running game can only help this offense get out of neutral

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On Friday, April 28, 2017 at 5:55 AM, FreakFries said:

It's difficult but I wouldn't draft him before round 4. He won't last until round 4 so I probably will not get him.

 

I had AR15 last year and thus forced myself to sit through a few Jaguars games and while AR15 had some drops, Bortels was un-f&#*ing-bellevably bad. At times it looked like he was playing blindfolded. That makes a difference.

 

Also - new coach, Tom Coughlin calling the shots and they just drafted Founette. Jobs are on the line and the Jags want to show some progress in the win column. Would you bet the season on Bortels? Looks to me like they are going to run first and then some. 

 

With their defense they should be the most run heavy team in the league.  Seriously.  Protect the football, keep the D fresh and provide them good field position,  and end every drive with a kick.   The defense literally could be good enough to win games by themselves if the offense and special teams don't screw them over. 

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18 minutes ago, 96mnc said:

 

With their defense they should be the most run heavy team in the league.  Seriously.  Protect the football, keep the D fresh and provide them good field position,  and end every drive with a kick.   The defense literally could be good enough to win games by themselves if Bortles and special teams don't screw them over. 

 

FTFY

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You draft AR15 with the mindset that it's going to be the chad henne show. 

Oof.

Hard to get overly excited about.

Edited by CL3VELANDBR0WNS

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On 4/27/2017 at 0:17 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Hurns is the #2...and the only JAX WR signed beyond the 2017 season. 

 

Isn't the contract extension more of a function of UDFA vs two drafted players?  And Hurns has no dead money after 2017.

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1 hour ago, hoppychokes said:

 

Isn't the contract extension more of a function of UDFA vs two drafted players?  And Hurns has no dead money after 2017.

 

Helps explain why they drafted Westbrook. All 3 of their starting WRs could be gone after 2017 with no cap hit -- gonna be survival of the fittest this year. 

 

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I dunno...What I saw last year was Bortles looked poor and their running game was terrible. Jacksonville's running game should be much better which in turn will probably help the passing attack, ie Robinsons' stats.  I still believe in his talent personally.  Hopkins too for that matter. 

Edited by mikeflavaz

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On 4/27/2017 at 3:17 PM, joshua18 said:

 

Hurns is the #2...and the only JAX WR signed beyond the 2017 season. 

 

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nfl/9867/allen-hurns

 

Hurns continued to play, but disappeared after week 8.  Maybe his hamstring was a problem.

Lee looked well filling in.  Bortles pre-season targets will tell us who his #2 is.

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They drafted Lee to be the #2, so it is no surprise that they were feeding him more once he was finally healthy. Hurns probably isn't long for the team. I'm still scared about drafting ARob this season though. His drops last season were bad. I didn't watch him much, but maybe it was the fault of Bortles and his throws.

 

Anyone expecting improvement this season?

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12 minutes ago, devaster said:

They drafted Lee to be the #2, so it is no surprise that they were feeding him more once he was finally healthy. Hurns probably isn't long for the team. I'm still scared about drafting ARob this season though. His drops last season were bad. I didn't watch him much, but maybe it was the fault of Bortles and his throws.

 

Anyone expecting improvement this season?

 

Lee was drafted to be the #1, actually (taken before Robinson), but has clearly been the #3 his JAX career. Hurns has been clearly superior in 2 of those 3 years. Not falling for recency bias...Hurns isn't going anywhere. 

 

I'll also be avoiding A-Rob this year. 

 

 

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5 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Lee was drafted to be the #1, actually (taken before Robinson), but has clearly been the #3 his JAX career. Hurns has been clearly superior in 2 of those 3 years. Not falling for recency bias...Hurns isn't going anywhere. 

 

I'll also be avoiding A-Rob this year. 

 

 

 

Lee had knee problems in college.  He was a draft risk.  Could barely play at all his rookie season.  Hopefully it's better now.  He currently has a 15th round ADP while Hurns is not being drafted.

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7 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Lee was drafted to be the #1, actually (taken before Robinson), but has clearly been the #3 his JAX career. Hurns has been clearly superior in 2 of those 3 years. Not falling for recency bias...Hurns isn't going anywhere. 

 

I'll also be avoiding A-Rob this year. 

 

 

 

At first I thought I would not be drafting Allen Robinson but I tried thinking about this a lot more today. He only had 12.1 yards per reception, 6 TD's but 150 targets. 48 percent catch rate. 

 

I think his last year efficiency without a doubt his rock bottom last year. One thing I've learned if efficiency is one of the hardest things to predict. But not targets. If he's getting 150 targets again and has let's say a 55% catch rate he's at 82.5 targets. Based on his last year's ypr of his all time low 12.1, that would be 1000 yards. The upside is there. The yards per reception and catch rate can increase and vault him back to WR1 territory. 

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2 hours ago, boltup15 said:

 

At first I thought I would not be drafting Allen Robinson but I tried thinking about this a lot more today. He only had 12.1 yards per reception, 6 TD's but 150 targets. 48 percent catch rate. 

 

I think his last year efficiency without a doubt his rock bottom last year. One thing I've learned if efficiency is one of the hardest things to predict. But not targets. If he's getting 150 targets again and has let's say a 55% catch rate he's at 82.5 targets. Based on his last year's ypr of his all time low 12.1, that would be 1000 yards. The upside is there. The yards per reception and catch rate can increase and vault him back to WR1 territory. 

 

If JAX runs the ball as much as they're planning to, Robinson won't get 150 targets again. 

 

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