Ffguy0087

Allen Robinson 2017 Season Outlook

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the best picks are the one where you have low expectations so they can exceed them even if they are mediocre. I can't complain with his output for the price I got him and Bryant for. 

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3 hours ago, atrium said:

People are considering taking Parker over him? I get that Arob had a very down year last year, and Parker has shown flashes in preseason, but I just can't get on board the hype train for someone so unproven. We've seen what Arob is capable of when things swing the right way. At this point, Parker's 'ceiling' is pure speculation. I think I'd take Arob before all 3 of those guys, but that's just me.

 

100%. Not a big fan of ARob this year, but he's being way too undervalued. He still put up 900 yards in a very down year with a rattled, pathetic quarterback. Fitz is past his prime, Parker is too raw, and after getting burned by Blackmon and Gordon on an annual basis, im staying away from knucklehead receivers like Matavias (unless I can get him after the 70th pick). 

Edited by jdegs7

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8 hours ago, raidaz18 said:

You wouldn't take Bryant over ARob? Funny

 

1.5 Bryants = 1 Robinson

 

Just about everything went wrong last year and he was still a top 25 WR (#24 in PPR).  80 catches on the year for 1000 yards and 8 TDs isn't that much to ask (that's 7 more catches for 117 more yards and 2 more TDs than last year), and that would make him a top 15 WR again.  Julius Thomas is gone, so Robinson is THE red zone target now.

 

But look at his QB!  Hey, it's the same QB he had when he posted 1400/14, so it isn't like he can't succeed with Bortles.  They just need to clean up a few things to have a much better season than last year's forgettable one.

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The hate on Robinson has gone way too far. He's going to have tons of targets and while the 2015 year was a bit lucky last year was more than ordinary regression. He can settle into a happy medium in between those seasons and be quite valuable. 

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4 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

 

1.5 Bryants = 1 Robinson

 

Just about everything went wrong last year and he was still a top 25 WR (#24 in PPR).  80 catches on the year for 1000 yards and 8 TDs isn't that much to ask (that's 7 more catches for 117 more yards and 2 more TDs than last year), and that would make him a top 15 WR again.  Julius Thomas is gone, so Robinson is THE red zone target now.

 

But look at his QB!  Hey, it's the same QB he had when he posted 1400/14, so it isn't like he can't succeed with Bortles.  They just need to clean up a few things to have a much better season than last year's forgettable one.

It's not the same QB though. Bortles has regressed.  While it's only preseason, I'm not confident 2017 Bortles will be as good as 2016 Bortles, let alone 2015 Bortles (although it can't last forever, right?).  In Dynasty/Keeper, I love Robinson, but I'm not crazy about him in redraft this year.  I don't think he has a ceiling to be a steal without getting at least a mediocre QB. My guess is he finishes as a back-end WR2 because of the sporadic, pathetic excuses for targets coming his way. He individually has top 5 fantasy WR talent as he proved in 2015, but that doesn't matter if the ball isn't getting reasonably close to him.

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Bortles DID regress last year.  He could just as easily PROgress this year.  If he's any worse, he's going to get yanked.

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Just now, Axe Elf said:

Bortles DID regress last year.  He could just as easily PROgress this year.  If he's any worse, he's going to get yanked.

 

Go bold this year. 1800/20?

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Just now, burninglegs said:

Go bold this year. 1800/20?

 

The way people are acting like they wouldn't draft Robinson until Zay Jones and Tavon Austin are off the board, 1000/8 IS bold!

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22 minutes ago, Axe Elf said:

Bortles DID regress last year.  He could just as easily PROgress this year.  If he's any worse, he's going to get yanked.

This was my argument as well. It almost fundamentally can't get worse. Bortles can't get worse without Henne taking over, and Henne can't be worse than 2016 Bortles. 

 

We probably saw ARob's floor last year. Which is still a top 25 WR. 

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if players like martavis and parker are truly being taken over arob, then he's a tremendous value for those left to draft. indeed, those players' ceilings are arob's 2015, and hence no higher than his. moreover, their floors (barring injury) are lower than arob's 2016, which is where i believe his is for 2017. so even if you say that their EVs are close, i don't see how they are better risk adjusted investments.

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4 minutes ago, augustine said:

if players like martavis and parker are truly being taken over arob, then he's a tremendous value for those left to draft. indeed, those players' ceilings are arob's 2015, and hence no higher than his. moreover, their floors (barring injury) are lower than arob's 2016, which is where i believe his is for 2017. so even if you say that their EVs are close, i don't see how they are better risk adjusted investments.

 

I'd much rather have those two guys than Robinson at this point. They have guys that can get them the ball.

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7 minutes ago, Deadpool said:

 

I'd much rather have those two guys than Robinson at this point. They have guys that can get them the ball.

 

neither of those two have put it together for complete seasons, nor are they the undisputed top targets for their teams. moreover, both of their qbs are legitimate injury concerns. if you were to run projections given the information we have, i just don't see how you can conclude that their EV/SDs (or any other risk adjusted measure of their values) make them better investments.

Edited by augustine

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2 hours ago, jbshaw said:

It's not the same QB though. Bortles has regressed.  While it's only preseason, I'm not confident 2017 Bortles will be as good as 2016 Bortles, let alone 2015 Bortles (although it can't last forever, right?).  In Dynasty/Keeper, I love Robinson, but I'm not crazy about him in redraft this year.  I don't think he has a ceiling to be a steal without getting at least a mediocre QB. My guess is he finishes as a back-end WR2 because of the sporadic, pathetic excuses for targets coming his way. He individually has top 5 fantasy WR talent as he proved in 2015, but that doesn't matter if the ball isn't getting reasonably close to him.

 

i'm not going to dispute anything that you wrote above, since you are correct to have concerns about arob. however, the argument was between arob and another high ceiling/ high variance wr2/3 in bryant. when factoring in the latter's concerns, the distributions/ scenario analyses for the two players should bear out similar valuations, at the very least.

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Friends, Bromans, Countrymen... lend me your ears !

I come to bury Bortles,not to praise him;

The evil that Blake did lives after him

 

The good oft interred with their bones, so let it be with BB's

 

The noble Axe Elf hath told you BB's projections ambitious 

If it were so, it was a grievous fault

 

And grievously has BB's answered it

 

Here under leave of Axe Elf and the rest-  and Axe Elf is an honourable man

 

So are they all, all honourable men-

Come I to speak at Bortles funeral

 

As an A.Rob owner he was my friend, faithful and just to me

But Axe Elf set projections ambitious, and Axe Elf is an honourable man

 

I speak not to disprove what Axe Elf spoke

But here I am to speak what I do know

 

You all did love him once, not without cause:

O judgement! thou art fled to Brutish beasts

And many have lost their season.Bear with me;

My A.Rob heart lies there in the coffin with BB's

And I must pause till it come back to me

 

  signed Sincerely,

 

  Bill Shakespeare

 

I agree with Bill. If I may I interpret it to say that because of Bortles over aggressive ways that in '15 led to many successful deep balls that inflated A.Rob's stats both we & them fell into a habit of counting on them. We loved them for taking big risks .

 

That ultimately became their undoing as the turnovers mounted the coaching staff was fired. New Generals were brought in. The old ways were put to rest.Faith in Bortles left the locker room. Even Allen publicly spoke in frustration. Et tu A.Rob ?

The evil that Blake brought is going to linger long after he is gone. Seasons of 150 plus targets and pass happy offensive game plans are buried in the coffin with BB's once promising career.

 

The love of the long ball along with the memories of 1400/14 seasons belong in the coffin with Bortles. Top 5 WR ... to quote another poet and playwright... NEVER MORE!!!

 

Many a season was lost in 2016 chasing elite production out of AR15. It's a new era in Jacksonville...And that means that A.Rob for the immediate future is a JAG for all intents and purposes. Despite what your heart may be telling you.

 

Axe Elf at 1100/8 is being optimistic but in the ballpark. Backend WR 2 ADP

 

p.s.: I agree with fellow playwright Jorge Bernard Shaw...jbshaw for short in the above tome:D

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by howlin' 2

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A semi-positive comment on Bortles by Marrone:

 

Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said Blake Bortles looks the "best I’ve seen him."

"I’ve seen him build on his last performance," Marrone said. "The footwork is better. It’s relaxed. I’m hoping to see that carry over because he’s actually done quite well." Bortles did look better in the third preseason game, but he was playing against backups in the fourth quarter. The real test will come Week 1 against the Texans.

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14 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

A semi-positive comment on Bortles by Marrone:

 

Jaguars coach Doug Marrone said Blake Bortles looks the "best I’ve seen him."

"I’ve seen him build on his last performance," Marrone said. "The footwork is better. It’s relaxed. I’m hoping to see that carry over because he’s actually done quite well." Bortles did look better in the third preseason game, but he was playing against backups in the fourth quarter. The real test will come Week 1 against the Texans.

Image result for urkel gifs

 

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Was there any discussion last year about the team trying to increase Robinson's catch rate by altering his route tree or something? My guess is that ARob bulls last year thought it was a safe bet to see that increase, which it of course didn't; I remember also seeing a fair number of comments that suggested that some of the problem actually was with Robinson due to drops, though when I checked I think he still was on the lower end in terms of drops and drop rate vs. his peers.

 

Obviously his catch rate remained really low last year, and if we know about it, I'm sure the coaching staff does; hopefully there's a focus this year on letting him run some more high-percentage routes in addition to the riskier stuff.

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What has changed to make his ADP drop nearly 20 spots?

 

Absolutely nothing. If you didn't know Bortles was terrible before then your opinion on Robinson is irrelevant. The hope here isn't that Bortles suddenly becomes a good QB. It's that last year was an abnormally bad season and that he will regress back to the mean. Which isn't a hope at all but more expected. He had practically zero big plays last year and I don't see how that stays the same. 

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19 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Was there any discussion last year about the team trying to increase Robinson's catch rate by altering his route tree or something? My guess is that ARob bulls last year thought it was a safe bet to see that increase, which it of course didn't; I remember also seeing a fair number of comments that suggested that some of the problem actually was with Robinson due to drops, though when I checked I think he still was on the lower end in terms of drops and drop rate vs. his peers.

 

Obviously his catch rate remained really low last year, and if we know about it, I'm sure the coaching staff does; hopefully there's a focus this year on letting him run some more high-percentage routes in addition to the riskier stuff.

 
He only had 3 drops last year, the problem was that his reception rate was a hideous 48%, off of what amounts to 73 receptions from 151 targets (i.e., Bortles). 

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1 hour ago, Onyx said:
 
He only had 3 drops last year, the problem was that his reception rate was a hideous 48%, off of what amounts to 73 receptions from 151 targets (i.e., Bortles). 

Right, and his catch rate was only 53% even in his breakout year, so it could be a consequence of both the terrible throws from Bortles plus running a lot of deeper, less-successful routes. My hope is that they set up Robinson and Bortles for success by running Robinson on higher-percentage routes, especially early on, to establish a rhythm and get Bortles' confidence up.

 

After my confidence in ARob cratered yesterday, I'm feeling a bit better about being a shareholder. An ADP of WR20 or so is a decent price if you think 2016 was his floor and 2015 represents his ceiling - the majority of the downside is baked in.

 

Here's what I'm thinking in terms of factors on ARob's performance in 2017, which was generated from reading all of the great comments in this thread and the usual stuff online (you're going to see the word "hope" used a lot):

 

1) Bortles - the hope is that he can't be worse than 2016, and if he is he will quickly be yanked

 

2) Robinson's route tree - I haven't seen anything about this, but I'd be curious to see to see an analysis of those last two weeks last year after Marrone was installed as the HC - what changed, if anything, vs. weeks 1-15?

 

3) The ground game - another hope is that it can't possibly be worse than 2016 now that Fournette is the lead back. There are some concerns that the Jags go run-heavy, leaving fewer targets for the ARob and the offense as a whole, but the hope is that the decreased volume would be offset by increased efficiency, sustained drives, more red-zone opportunities (a particular boon with ARob's stature and with Julius Thomas gone), etc.

 

4) The defense - the expectation is that the Jags' D will be improved with a year of experience under the belts of their young'uns plus a few high-profile signings. I think this will be a net positive - you lose garbage time, which is popularly thought of as the reason why Bortles and ARob exploded in 2015, but that should be offset by an ability to be less predictable on offense and to execute game plans more successfully

 

5) Contract year for ARob - this is a nice plus, though I hope the Jags don't sandbag him or something to keep his value low

 

6) Strength of schedule - one thing that I'm hoping to see is a comparison of this for Jags' receivers vs. last year. It can be at tricky thing to measure because I believe 2017 strength-of-schedule is based on stats from last year, but it's still worth a look; I'm also happy that the Jags signed Bouye away from the Texans

 

I'm not sure that I'm fully bought in to the thinking that 2016 was definitely his floor, but I do believe that his odds of rebounding and outperforming his ADP are pretty good. I still wouldn't feel fully comfortable with him as my WR2, but he'd slot in as a very strong WR3 (in my main league where you can start up to 5 WR's I went crazy and went for WR's in 6 of the first 7 rounds, so he's actually a FLEX - my RB's are terrible).

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What are your thoughts on week 1 vs Texans? Kevin Johnson will be on him I reckon who is a really good CB. But does it even matter with Clowney, Watt, Mercilus wreaking havoc? Last season he had just one catch in both Texans games...

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31 minutes ago, frog34 said:

What are your thoughts on week 1 vs Texans? Kevin Johnson will be on him I reckon who is a really good CB. But does it even matter with Clowney, Watt, Mercilus wreaking havoc? Last season he had just one catch in both Texans games...

I personally drafted ARob with no intentions to start him immediately. I'm in a 'show me' mode with him, and facing the Texans' stout D the first week solidifies my position on that. 

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Picked him up as my WR4 /Flex player and frankly I couldn't be happier.  He's on the bubble but I'm hoping an improved run game will take pressure of Bortles and lead to more consistent success for Robinson.   There's enough upside in Robinson to draft him at his ADP.  Our league was so sour on him I got him in the 6th round.   That's seems a bit crazy to me. 

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3 hours ago, frog34 said:

What are your thoughts on week 1 vs Texans? Kevin Johnson will be on him I reckon who is a really good CB. But does it even matter with Clowney, Watt, Mercilus wreaking havoc? Last season he had just one catch in both Texans games...

are you sure about that? 

 

the one game vs the texans was his best all year he had 9 catches for 107 and a td 

the second game he did have 2 catches for 15 which isn't too good 

Edited by Flyers_28

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