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Allen Robinson 2017 Season Outlook

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1 hour ago, Tcann66 said:

Good breakdown and strong argument for Robinson. Last year I was on the AR15 Bandwagon big time and boy was that frustrating. I agree I believe there has to be some positive regression here, somewhere in-between AR15 and AR16 numbers lol I also believe if Bortles doesnt show some improvement by Week 4-5 they make the QB switch which I believe could also help AR. If AR stays as a late 5th rd pick(according to ESPN) I think the upside is there to justify the pick.

5th round?  Right now he's WR14, adp 2.2. 5th round would be the steal of steals. 

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3 hours ago, Ravensdan said:

5th round?  Right now he's WR14, adp 2.2. 5th round would be the steal of steals. 

 

In a 12 team PPR, ARob is WR15 coming off the board middle of the 3rd.  If you're taking him, it is likely so he'll serve as your every week WR2.

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12 hours ago, Ravensdan said:

5th round?  Right now he's WR14, adp 2.2. 5th round would be the steal of steals. 

I was referencing ESPN's ADP where AROB is going at WR 20 pick 47. 

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9. Allen Robinson, JAX
2017 Projection: 82 receptions / 1230 yards / 10 touchdowns (265 points)
Outlook: 2015 was a disaster for the entire Jacksonville franchise. Robinson, who was a consensus Top 10 pick at his position at this point last season, enters the 2017 season as the undisputed #1 wide receiver again in an offense that looks to rebound. A lot of that depends on Blake Bortles development, however. It is interesting to note that Robinson had excellent fantasy days during the final few weeks of last season in which Doug Marrone took over as head coach of the franchise. He returns this year to lead the Jaguars, and I expect a bounce back season for most players on the team. One of the more physically dominant players in the league, I expect a bounce back for Robinson at a very agreeable price.

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On 6/27/2017 at 11:24 AM, Br0kenB said:

9. Allen Robinson, JAX
2017 Projection: 82 receptions / 1230 yards / 10 touchdowns (265 points)

Even as a Jaguars fan I can't get behind your projected stats.  The Jaguars have an obvious commitment to run the ball this season.  Marquise Lee came on strong at the end of last season since he's finally healthy.  Allen Hurns is returning from injury.  Bortles pass attempts should go down by 100+.  Not only that but the defense is yet again better than last year.

 

Add on the fact that the Jaguars lost 10 games last year by 10 points or less, 6 of them by 5 points or less, I don't see nearly as many negative game scripts in the 2nd half.

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Add on the fact that the Jaguars lost 10 games last year by 10 points or less, 6 of them by 5 points or less, I don't see nearly as many negative game scripts in the 2nd half.

 

That surprises me! Looking at the scoring only two of them had late garbage time scores to close the gap as well. (vs Houston, @ KC)

 

I think Robinson has plenty of room for his catch rate to improve. Less negative game scripts and the commitment to the run game should give him some easier coverage at times - hopefully improving his catch rate and YPC. 

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In the mocks that I've been doing I've been seeing him available around early/mid round 3 which I feel is good value

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Let's see.

 

In 2015, Robinson converted 151 targets into an amazing 80 catches, 1400 yards, and 14 TDs. 

In 2016, Robinson converted 151 targets into a lousy 73 catches, 883 yards, and 6 TDs. 

 

I'm guessing in 2017, he'll get his 150 targets, and probably end up somewhere in the middle. 75 catches. 1000 yards. 8 TDs seems like a really safe prediction.

That would be low end WR1/high end WR2 numbers. Again, that feels like a safe floor (If Bortles continues to kill his value, he's gonna lose his job). 

 

 

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ESPN ADP has AROB going at the end of the 4th round and Im okay drafting him there. I think with guys like Miller, Arob, Hopkins etc you will be happier with their production even if its only slightly better because of where you are drafting them. Last year you spend a first or second round pick on these guys so if they didn't put up David Johnson or Antonio Brown like numbers you are upset. I expect all three of the aforementioned players to have positive regression this year even if its not drastic but they will be viewed in a more positive light. 

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55 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Wrong thread, see you in the Amari Cooper 2017 Season Outlook thread.


Talk about a fanboy... 

Amari can't even dream of 16 TD's.

I think Allen Robinson has a really good bounce-back year.

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35 minutes ago, ponza88 said:


Talk about a fanboy... 

Amari can't even dream of 16 TD's.

I think Allen Robinson has a really good bounce-back year.

 

Neither can ARob, Bortles will be lucky to throw 16 TDs all season. Derrick Carr on the other hand could throw 40

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3 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Neither can ARob, Bortles will be lucky to throw 16 TDs all season. Derrick Carr on the other hand could throw 40

Ooh, ooh. Can I please take the over on 16 TDs  for Bortles? How much can I bet?

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37 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Neither can ARob, Bortles will be lucky to throw 16 TDs all season. Derrick Carr on the other hand could throw 40

 

32 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Ooh, ooh. Can I please take the over on 16 TDs  for Bortles? How much can I bet?

 

Carr definitely has 40 TD upside, but that relies on a monumental Cooper ascension and Seth Roberts or Cordarelle Patterson becoming GREAT WR3's in this offense. But if the over/under for TD passes on Bortles is 16, I'd put $1k on the over and feel very confident.

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Wrong thread, see you in the Amari Cooper 2017 Season Outlook thread.

He is just on pace for 16 TDs by the end of this season.

 

For his career.

Edited by Gohawks

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4 hours ago, dabeesta17 said:

 

 

Carr definitely has 40 TD upside, but that relies on a monumental Cooper ascension and Seth Roberts or Cordarelle Patterson becoming GREAT WR3's in this offense. But if the over/under for TD passes on Bortles is 16, I'd put $1k on the over and feel very confident.

 

I guess it is hard for many on here to tell when talking in jest.

 

In light of coach marrone's conments about his qb throwing the ball 0 times a game i put an unrealistically low number on Bortles, it will be closer to 26.5 for the over under on his TDs and Carrs will be closer to 35 but i exaggerated his to 40.

 

I did all this as a response to the 1,500 yards and 16TDs comment for ARob and eluded to the fact that Amari had a better chance of reaching that than ARob does cause Carr is a legit QB and Bortles is a train wreck.

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1 hour ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

I guess it is hard for many on here to tell when talking in jest.

 

In light of coach marrone's conments about his qb throwing the ball 0 times a game i put an unrealistically low number on Bortles, it will be closer to 26.5 for the over under on his TDs and Carrs will be closer to 35 but i exaggerated his to 40.

 

I did all this as a response to the 1,500 yards and 16TDs comment for ARob and eluded to the fact that Amari had a better chance of reaching that than ARob does cause Carr is a legit QB and Bortles is a train wreck.

 

it was a joke someone axe elf? i think predicted that last year and we saw how that turned out 

 

curious is the elf still around?

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Given their investments in the run game and defense, I expect Bortles to be throwing less. A-Rob saw less deep targets, far less catchable deep targets (per PFF), and his red zone efficiency saw a massive drop. He's a beast, but I expect Bortles to hold him back. He's pretty fairly priced going in the pick 35ish range as a mid-range wr2, but I just see him having a hard time being consistent or really jumping back into the wr1 discussion unless Bortles randomly turns it around. Personally I'd rather go with the upside of Pryor, Watkins, and maybe even Martavis. I don't like the rbs at his adp and I'm not an early QB guy, so I won't be upset if I get A-Rob, I just think there are better ways to spend that pick. 

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Bottles threw 5 INT's today during 7 on 7 drill. Marrone was obviously not pleased. Is this good for Robinson? Maybe they make the QB switch before season starts or early on, or is this our warning sign to bail on AR this year because Bortles has not improved whatsoever?

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49 minutes ago, Tcann66 said:

Bottles threw 5 INT's today during 7 on 7 drill. Marrone was obviously not pleased. Is this good for Robinson? Maybe they make the QB switch before season starts or early on, or is this our warning sign to bail on AR this year because Bortles has not improved whatsoever?

Yikes! I don't know what's going to happen, but it seems like a change isn't out of the question at this point. 

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Why dont they start Henne? Is he still on that roster? I know his OLD and all but hes better than Blake Bortles

Edited by MariGOATA

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