Ffguy0087

Allen Robinson 2017 Season Outlook

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19 hours ago, '71 Bucks said:

 

He was far from useless last year (and I was an owner in keeper). He had that brutal 4 week stretch from week 11-14 that killed a lot people, but he finished exactly at WR25 in PPR. He just wasn't the WR1 that he was drafted to be and that he was in 2015. 

 

Last year couldn't have been much worse and he still ended up putting up fringe WR2 numbers. I hate Bortles too and I don't think he gets back to 2015 numbers, but WR25 is reasonable investment. 

And he finished almost exactly 32 points behind #15 last year.  That's only two PPG.  If he has even a slight bounce back, he easily climbs inside the top 20.  Getting a solid WR2 with huge upside in the 6th round?  Yeah, I'll bite there.

 

Looking more and more like Henne might take the reins. Can't be worse than BB. 

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4 minutes ago, cothane said:

And he finished almost exactly 32 points behind #15 last year.  That's only two PPG.  If he has even a slight bounce back, he easily climbs inside the top 20.  Getting a solid WR2 with huge upside in the 6th round?  Yeah, I'll bite there.

 

Looking more and more like Henne might take the reins. Can't be worse than BB. 

 

He has a tremendous shot to be Top 20 but he's not close to top ten status in which people were drafting him as last year.  It will take another 2015-like situation for A Rob to produce like a top 10 WR and that won't happen for awhile.

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4 minutes ago, jvmillion83 said:

 

He has a tremendous shot to be Top 20 but he's not close to top ten status in which people were drafting him as last year.  It will take another 2015-like situation for A Rob to produce like a top 10 WR and that won't happen for awhile.

But why does that matter?  You're not paying for him to be a top 10 WR.  You're actually paying for WR3 value and getting someone with massive upside.  

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His ADP might jump up a couple rounds if Henne is named the starter though.

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11 minutes ago, cothane said:

But why does that matter?  You're not paying for him to be a top 10 WR.  You're actually paying for WR3 value and getting someone with massive upside.  

People still haven't forgotten about 2015 and how he was almost a first rounder last year.  He's been going in about round 4 and I'm not paying that price for a wr3.

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4 minutes ago, jvmillion83 said:

People still haven't forgotten about 2015 and how he was almost a first rounder last year.  He's been going in about round 4 and I'm not paying that price for a wr3.

 

 

His ADP is WR22 on FFC. Last season he finished WR28 in PPR leagues. So he is going at a slight premium compared to last season's performance. But if you think last season was his absolute worse case scenario for production, then it isn't a terrible pick if you assume he will out produce last year. Obviously that depends on Henne being named the starter, but I don't think we are too far from that.

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11 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

 

His ADP is WR22 on FFC. Last season he finished WR28 in PPR leagues. So he is going at a slight premium compared to last season's performance. But if you think last season was his absolute worse case scenario for production, then it isn't a terrible pick if you assume he will out produce last year. Obviously that depends on Henne being named the starter, but I don't think we are too far from that.

 

He finished as WR28 and now Fournette becomes a huge factor in the run game.  They also just got AJ Bouye & Calais Campbell added to their emerging defense.  How reliant do you think they'll still be in the passing game?

Edited by jvmillion83

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I don't see how a boost in defense and running game hurts A Rob. I think it would help him. He won't finish top 5 by any means but 10-15 is very possible if the offense as a whole is better. Yes, garbage time is a huge factor of his points but a consistent WR2 or a Boom/Bust WR1 ( Like Baldwin ) is very doable if the offense as a whole gets better and if the defense gives the offense more opportunities. He's risky for sure, but his upside to be a HIGH WR2/LOW WR1 is still there. At worst he is a true  WR3. There is better picks out there but for alot of people A Rob at WR2 isn't that bad at all.

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If I can grab two solid RBs before I start grabbing WRs, I would not be mad if I got him. Lee has a hurt ankle, who knows how long that could linger. There's talk about Hurns being shipped out. They'll hardly use Thomas. I can see ARob doing a bit better this year. There's such a gigantic pile of receivers that all are about the same around the time he's drafted so it is almost like "close your eyes and pick a couple" type deal. 

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9 minutes ago, HamMach1 said:

If I can grab two solid RBs before I start grabbing WRs, I would not be mad if I got him. Lee has a hurt ankle, who knows how long that could linger. There's talk about Hurns being shipped out. They'll hardly use Thomas. I can see ARob doing a bit better this year. There's such a gigantic pile of receivers that all are about the same around the time he's drafted so it is almost like "close your eyes and pick a couple" type deal. 

 

In terms of PPG, ARob was 36th as a WR in PPR last season.  He has to do a hell of lot better this year to have any chance at returning value as a solid WR2.

 

Has anyone noticed how Bortles is playing lately?

 

If you draft ARob, are you acquiring a player how has some chance completely out-perform his draft price?

 

I love the player (I owned him, unfortunately, last season).  I just don't see how he would be attractive to anyone at his current price.

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I think the appeal of A Rob is, would you rather draft a guy who is a WR1 on his team, gets 10+ targets constantly and the team has had some improvements on paper this offseason.

If you look at the WR's around the area he is being taken, none look that great. Some are safe, others have upside. He is ranked around guys like


Crabtree, Tate, Fitzgerald, Landry, Martavis , Kelvin, Allen

 

In all the drafts and rankings of what I can tell is A Rob is taken after Alshon, Pryor, Hopkins, etc

 

I think his appeal is where he is being drafted. The guys around his picks may be better, but A Rob has a very high ceiling. If you gamble in the early rounds taking picks for Jordan Howard or Michael Thomas, who personally look amazing but you never know they could bust ( it happens ) then take a Tate , Landry or Crabtree. If you take guys like Bell, ODB, Julio, I have no issue with taking A Rob for his upside alone. Especially if he is your WR2 or Flex. WR1 I agree super risky. 

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32 minutes ago, SuperHans said:

I think the appeal of A Rob is, would you rather draft a guy who is a WR1 on his team, gets 10+ targets constantly and the team has had some improvements on paper this offseason.

If you look at the WR's around the area he is being taken, none look that great. Some are safe, others have upside. He is ranked around guys like


Crabtree, Tate, Fitzgerald, Landry, Martavis , Kelvin, Allen

 

In all the drafts and rankings of what I can tell is A Rob is taken after Alshon, Pryor, Hopkins, etc

 

I think his appeal is where he is being drafted. The guys around his picks may be better, but A Rob has a very high ceiling. If you gamble in the early rounds taking picks for Jordan Howard or Michael Thomas, who personally look amazing but you never know they could bust ( it happens ) then take a Tate , Landry or Crabtree. If you take guys like Bell, ODB, Julio, I have no issue with taking A Rob for his upside alone. Especially if he is your WR2 or Flex. WR1 I agree super risky. 

I don't think I've seen a single mock or real draft where he's gone ahead of Crabtree or Allen. Crabtree and Allen are actually going around and even sometimes before Alshon, Pryor, and Hopkins that you mentioned before.

 

He's falling to the Tate, Fitz, Landry, Benjamin, Bryant, Sanders, Tyreek territory.

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28 minutes ago, SuperHans said:

I think the appeal of A Rob is, would you rather draft a guy who is a WR1 on his team, gets 10+ targets constantly and the team has had some improvements on paper this offseason.

If you look at the WR's around the area he is being taken, none look that great. Some are safe, others have upside. He is ranked around guys like


Crabtree, Tate, Fitzgerald, Landry, Martavis , Kelvin, Allen

 

In all the drafts and rankings of what I can tell is A Rob is taken after Alshon, Pryor, Hopkins, etc

 

I think his appeal is where he is being drafted. The guys around his picks may be better, but A Rob has a very high ceiling. If you gamble in the early rounds taking picks for Jordan Howard or Michael Thomas, who personally look amazing but you never know they could bust ( it happens ) then take a Tate , Landry or Crabtree. If you take guys like Bell, ODB, Julio, I have no issue with taking A Rob for his upside alone. Especially if he is your WR2 or Flex. WR1 I agree super risky. 

 

Good points, but can you say that ARob has a very high ceiling in this offense?  Unless Henne is more than we think, I just don't see how high ARob can go.  He is lucky to hold his own against such horrendous QB play.

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20 minutes ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

Good points, but can you say that ARob has a very high ceiling in this offense?  Unless Henne is more than we think, I just don't see how high ARob can go.  He is lucky to hold his own against such horrendous QB play.

 

ARob was the #6 WR in 2015 with Bortles.  So bad QB play won't necessarily hold him back.  But Bortles was very aggressive that year, whereas Henne probably won't be (correct me, Henne watchers).

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47 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

ARob was the #6 WR in 2015 with Bortles.  So bad QB play won't necessarily hold him back.  But Bortles was very aggressive that year, whereas Henne probably won't be (correct me, Henne watchers).

 

2015 for ARob was a tsunami of garbage time.  Ain't happening again.  ARob and his QB have to stand on their own two feet from now on.

 

Where this guy finds himself, he just has no upside.  Without that, how do you take him over Fitz, Bryant, Diggs, Watkins and Marshall, all guys who could easily blow up in 2017 with health and any luck?

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2 hours ago, Rolling Thunder said:

 

2015 for ARob was a tsunami of garbage time.  Ain't happening again.  ARob and his QB have to stand on their own two feet from now on.

 

Where this guy finds himself, he just has no upside.  Without that, how do you take him over Fitz, Bryant, Diggs, Watkins and Marshall, all guys who could easily blow up in 2017 with health and any luck?

Facts.

 

As a 2016 ARob owner, I could tell that Arob definetly was partly at fault for his awful 2016 season. Bortles still force fed him targets, but 40% of those targets were uncatchable and for the other 40% ARob couldn't separate enough.

 

Maybe he got double teamed more, but he struggled A LOT in getting open compared back to 2015.

 

Factor in the fact that the Jags have a top 10 defense, top 15 o line, bellcow rb, and 2017 looks like another year to forget for Arob.  

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Good news:

 

Chad Henne will start in preseason game 3 - lets hope he has a good game and hits A Rob on every throw!

Edited by MariGOATA

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9 hours ago, HamMach1 said:

If I can grab two solid RBs before I start grabbing WRs, I would not be mad if I got him. Lee has a hurt ankle, who knows how long that could linger. There's talk about Hurns being shipped out. They'll hardly use Thomas. I can see ARob doing a bit better this year. There's such a gigantic pile of receivers that all are about the same around the time he's drafted so it is almost like "close your eyes and pick a couple" type deal. 

 

Sure hope not since he is playing on the Dolphins. Hard to use a player on another team.

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52 minutes ago, burninglegs said:

 

Sure hope not since he is playing on the Dolphins. Hard to use a player on another team.

 

Bortles seems to use players on other teams better than on his own team. 

 

bortles_int_1_1.0.gif

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The public perception of Bortles has kind of gotten unfairly out of hand.  Part of that is the huge, glaring errors, like missing a wide open Robinson so badly in the last preseason game.  But Bortles was 8/13 in that game, a 61.5% completion percentage, which is not only perfectly acceptable, but it's also 2.5% higher than his career average (and 2.9% higher than his completion percentage in his "career year," 2015).  Chad Henne went 6/10 in that game.

 

For all the criticism, Bortles was still the #9 fantasy QB last season.  We're not talking Christian Hackenberg here.

 

BOTH Bortles AND his receivers need to look themselves in the mirror and start cleaning up some of the sloppy, silly mistakes, but in the NFL, the line between greatness and meh is pretty fine.  If nothing else, both QBs seem to be targeting Robinson endlessly, so he's going to be a big part of the game plan in any case.

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I'd say the contrary , the public perception was skewed before because of late game garbage yardage inflated totals in '15 .

 

His team was bad so they were constantly playing from way behind and opponents played softer coverage. His early game turnovers and inefficiency were contributing factors along with a porous defense.

 

Throwing 35 plus times a game produced good fantasy stats but he still wasn't a good NFL QB. Now the expectations of the team are that he can't get by with the same mistakes. When plays are there to be made he isn't making them. Teams adjusted to take away the Big plays last year and Bortles struggled along with the receivers. Blake has been exposed and now he hasn't responded with adjustments of his own. While we love padding stats in garbage time for the coaches they are looking to win and be on the other side of the game flow. Especially the new regime.

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7 hours ago, burninglegs said:

 

Sure hope not since he is playing on the Dolphins. Hard to use a player on another team.

 

Oops meant Toyota Lewis

Edited by phatrat
language

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Nice breakdown of Jags QBs

 

A.gif

 

Bortles10.gif

 

Bortles8.gif

 

I can't tell how tight the coverage was on this play, but this type of stuff hurt them last year... dropping catchable balls (assuming the DB didn't get his hands on it). This was Henne to ARob. Just before that was Henne to Cole on the same route, that was also a drop.

 

Henne2.gif

 

I want to see Brandon Allen get more play time (hopefully tonight). Showed signs of decent accuracy, mobility, and has a rocket for an arm as well. Might be good for Allen Robinson because of the way Brandon was hitting Dede Westbrook, who took over ARob's spot. All of his catches have been for 20+ yards so far this preseason. 

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5 hours ago, Axe Elf said:

The public perception of Bortles has kind of gotten unfairly out of hand.  Part of that is the huge, glaring errors, like missing a wide open Robinson so badly in the last preseason game.  But Bortles was 8/13 in that game, a 61.5% completion percentage, which is not only perfectly acceptable, but it's also 2.5% higher than his career average (and 2.9% higher than his completion percentage in his "career year," 2015).  Chad Henne went 6/10 in that game.

 

For all the criticism, Bortles was still the #9 fantasy QB last season.  We're not talking Christian Hackenberg here.

 

BOTH Bortles AND his receivers need to look themselves in the mirror and start cleaning up some of the sloppy, silly mistakes, but in the NFL, the line between greatness and meh is pretty fine.  If nothing else, both QBs seem to be targeting Robinson endlessly, so he's going to be a big part of the game plan in any case.

 

So what you're saying is.... 1500/16

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1 hour ago, HamMach1 said:

I can't tell how tight the coverage was on this play, but this type of stuff hurt them last year... dropping catchable balls (assuming the DB didn't get his hands on it). This was Henne to ARob. Just before that was Henne to Cole on the same route, that was also a drop.

 

Henne2.gif

 

 

 

It's funny, all I saw media-wise was that Arob had a dropped a TD ball from Henne last week. Seeing the video says otherwise.... Although the ball is catchable, two defenders were on the ball (hard to tell if either one got a hand on it) and the ball was slightly under thrown (i.e., he puts that ball in the back of the EZ and its an easy TD). Not what I would consider a easy catch for sure. Bortles pass would have been intercepted or hit the camera man in the back of the EZ. Will be interested to see tonight's results.

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