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ktierne3

Marwin Gonzalez 2017 Outlook

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1 hour ago, Picard56 said:

 

Please don't ask me to find the article... but the manager said he doesn't plan to bench him any time soon and will plug him anywhere he can to give guys days off in the OF and infield.

 

Another question for you guys. I am not trying to rain on the parade (I picked up this guy as well) but is anyone concerned that he still has a very high ground ball rate?? Could the homer barage just be an anamoly. The other perhiphals look good, high walk rate, babip is actually kind of low and he could be a .270 hitter easily.

 

I want someone to tell me not to worry about the ground ball rate.

 

Why are you so worried about the ground ball rate? Just ride the hot wave and cut bait when he cools down. You didn't use a draft pick on him so anything you get out of Marwin is already a win.

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26 minutes ago, j_cis1011 said:

 

Why are you so worried about the ground ball rate? Just ride the hot wave and cut bait when he cools down. You didn't use a draft pick on him so anything you get out of Marwin is already a win.

 

depending on depth of league, it may be important to figure out if his success is actually sustainable in order to decide if it's worth it to drop the guy you have to drop in order to pick him up

 

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5% career BB rate and now sporting a 12.3% on the season... i'm interested

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Does this remind anyone of Jose Bautista circa 2010?  

 

A part time type player who has had years of low double digit homers in past.  Bautista was 29 when he smashed through, Gonzalez is currently 28. Gonzalez has the advantage of being in a loaded lineup.

 

I'm no expert on this stuff and I certainly don't expect Gonzalez to hit 54 HRs.  But I remember in my league in 2010, he lasted on the waiver wire for what seemed like forever as people looked at Bautista's "meh" track record and figured it would never last.  The guy that eventually picked him up had an MVP player at the cost of a backup for the next 5 years.

 

Maybe Gonzalez is the 2017 Bautista on a lower level?  It could be risky NOT to pick him up and give him a whirl-especially with the position flexibility.

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9 hours ago, wily mo said:

 

depending on depth of league, it may be important to figure out if his success is actually sustainable in order to decide if it's worth it to drop the guy you have to drop in order to pick him up

 

 

This. I already picked him up as a bench bat. I am just trying to assess future success with him. I like the joey bats comparison above, I've watched videos of gonzalez and looks like in addition to dropping his hands, he added a leg kick as well. I am hoping for sustained success because he is extremely valuable in my yahoo league being eligible at every position except catcher

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Quote from the manager about his playing time:

 

"I'm not keeping him out of the lineup," Hinch said. "I'm finding ways to get him in and it's costing other guys playing time."

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Anyone know why he doesn't have OF eligibility on ESPN yet?  Shows he has 8 starts in LF and 2 in CF . . . in a league with generic OF slots, does he need 10 starts at a single OF position (like 2 more at LF) to get OF, or has ESPN just not updated from last night yet?

 

Agreed with others, if you have the room add now and ask questions later.  He always had 20 HR pop before, just never full playing time.  If he's dropped his hands and added a leg kick and has even more power, and the manager is trying to get him in games, who knows what his limits are.  I don't want to find out the answer to that with him on someone else's team.

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10 hours ago, 33legend said:

Does this remind anyone of Jose Bautista circa 2010?  

 

A part time type player who has had years of low double digit homers in past.  Bautista was 29 when he smashed through, Gonzalez is currently 28. Gonzalez has the advantage of being in a loaded lineup.

 

I'm no expert on this stuff and I certainly don't expect Gonzalez to hit 54 HRs.  But I remember in my league in 2010, he lasted on the waiver wire for what seemed like forever as people looked at Bautista's "meh" track record and figured it would never last.  The guy that eventually picked him up had an MVP player at the cost of a backup for the next 5 years.

 

Maybe Gonzalez is the 2017 Bautista on a lower level?  It could be risky NOT to pick him up and give him a whirl-especially with the position flexibility.

 

I can see that.  Obviously not expecting as big of a breakout, but I have a feeling he can sustain a greater level of success than he has at any other point in his career.  Actually added him an hour ago.  Which means he'll finish with 15 home runs at best.

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The groundball/flyball ratio is clearly an issue as someone not named Judge can't possibly sustain a 50% HR/FB ratio. He looks like he has improved his plate discipline, however and seems to be hitting the ball harder this season. What all this means is that he can now actually have fantasy relevance. He won't keep up this HR pace obviously and he won't hit 30 HRs, but he may settle somewhere in the mid 20's. Combined with his multiple position eligibility, a very useful fantasy player.

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13 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

The groundball/flyball ratio is clearly an issue as someone not named Judge can't possibly sustain a 50% HR/FB ratio. He looks like he has improved his plate discipline, however and seems to be hitting the ball harder this season. What all this means is that he can now actually have fantasy relevance. He won't keep up this HR pace obviously and he won't hit 30 HRs, but he may settle somewhere in the mid 20's. Combined with his multiple position eligibility, a very useful fantasy player.

I want to add that as a result of whatever changes he made to hit more HR's, his line drive % has cratered to 7%. His BABIP is sub .200 and it won't get much better with that line drive rate.

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6 minutes ago, lassetjus said:

I want to add that as a result of whatever changes he made to hit more HR's, his line drive % has cratered to 7%. His BABIP is sub .200 and it won't get much better with that line drive rate.

 

His BABIP over his career is almost exactly .300, and the LD rate is so low I have to imagine it's a result of SSS.  The home runs won't stay up; out of the three big power breakouts he's the one I expect to fall short of the 25 mark, but I do think the positive adjustments are legitimate and he finally maintains fantasy usefulness.

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1 hour ago, phillyphan21 said:

 

His BABIP over his career is almost exactly .300, and the LD rate is so low I have to imagine it's a result of SSS.  The home runs won't stay up; out of the three big power breakouts he's the one I expect to fall short of the 25 mark, but I do think the positive adjustments are legitimate and he finally maintains fantasy usefulness.

 

I don't really know what to expect or hope for, but if he already has 9 HR's in 64 AB's, do you really expect less than 15 HR's if he gets another 400+ ABs?  Obviously he'll cool off, but I guess to what degree we don't know yet.

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Positives: 

- Improved control of the strike zone: Fangraphs O-Swing% is down to 26% from a career average of 34.6%. This has driven his walk rate up to 12.8% from 4.2% last year. His zone swing % has also declined from 65% to 57%. 

- Improved contact: This is likely linked to his better plate discipline. His contact % has improved to 81.7% vs. a career average of 79.6%. Last year it was only 75%. 

- Hard Contact %: 34%. Last year was 33% but his career is 29.7%. League average is about 30%. 

 

Negatives: 

- HR/FB Ratio: This is obviously completely unsustainable but the question is whether it will level out around his career high of 13.8% or significantly lower. 

- LD%: Line drives are way down while ground balls are way up. This may just be SSS though. The contact numbers seem to point to a better hit tool. 

- Soft Contact%: This has spiked to 20.8%. Career average is 18%. However, hard contact is up and well above his career high. Overall, it's not bad. It's not much higher than league average. 

 

Okay, after putting these on paper, I see more to like than to give doubt. The power will obviously come down but the eligibility is insane and I love seeing improvements in contact. LD should stabilize since he seems to be making good contact still and contact rates are improving. 

 

Annnnd... I'm adding. 

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This guy has the weirdest launch angle:

 

 

 

 

2017-05-05_11h10_39.png

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positional eligibility | games played at each position

 

2016:

1B -- 92

3B -- 22

OF -- 19

2B -- 14

SS -- 11

 

2017:

OF -- 9

1B -- 8

3B -- 6

2B -- 3

 

for ESPN leagues: a bit frustrating that he missed OF eligibility by a single game in 2016, but he is one game away from reaching the 10 threshold for this season. 

 

I think the improvements are legit and a breakout is happening before our eyes. Playing time is surely on the rise. May be bad news for Beltran/Gattis. 

 

at the moment Marwin has gone deep 9 times in 78 plate appearances, rocked a strong 10:14 BB:K ratio, and even swiped two bases. 

 

Even with the abundance of productive corner infielders (Rendon, Belt types on many people's bench) I think Marwin is a must add-- and in leagues where he has MI eligibility, he is a no-brainer. 

 

There is a solid chance he ends 2017 as the premiere waiver wire breakout. If he falters, oh well, you chalk it up as a Mar-loss. (thanks, I'll be here all week)

 

Edited by ChicksDigTheOPS

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10 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

....

There is a solid chance he ends 2017 as the premiere waiver wire breakout. If he falters, oh well, you chalk it up as a Mar-loss. (thanks, I'll be here all week)

 

 

It's going to be tough to catch Ryan Zimmerman at this point, but he could definitely give him a run for his money.

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4 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

Anyone know why he doesn't have OF eligibility on ESPN yet?  Shows he has 8 starts in LF and 2 in CF . . . in a league with generic OF slots, does he need 10 starts at a single OF position (like 2 more at LF) to get OF, or has ESPN just not updated from last night yet?

 

Agreed with others, if you have the room add now and ask questions later.  He always had 20 HR pop before, just never full playing time.  If he's dropped his hands and added a leg kick and has even more power, and the manager is trying to get him in games, who knows what his limits are.  I don't want to find out the answer to that with him on someone else's team.

 

I actually just checked with ESPN (their online chat is really quick, and easy, BTW).  Gonzalez has actually only played 9 games in the OF.  He played both RF & LF in the same game.  So, he gets credit for a game at each spot (for leagues that use specific OF positions), but the total number of games is still actually just 9.

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Thought this was interesting cause I own both...

 

Heading into today's games Marwin and Miguel Cabrera have the same number of hits in the same amount of ABs -- the difference is the counting numbers...

 

Miguel: 17/64 -- 8R - 4HRs - 11RBIs .266/.356/.484 - 31TB - 15Ks - -1SB

Marwin:17/64 - 11R - 9HRs - 21RBIs .266/.368/.719 - 46TB - 14Ks -  2SB

 

I also like the comparison to the Bautista break out -- was first in my league to buy in on Bautista back in 2010, and was one of the few on these boards defending him against the haters as he hit homer after homer each night (its documented if you go back :ph34r:). Joey Bats has made it back to my squad just about ever year since (CSB), hopefully this little hot streak he's having leads to the Joey of old. 

 

...as for Marwin, that in no way means he ends with 54 HRs or anything close, but the pick up feels eerily similar to the day I scooped Bautista.

 

Hope he keeps it up...and that eligibility: 1B/2B/SS/3B/OF :wub:

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From Jeff Sullivan's chat today:

 

Blah 
Marwin Gonzalez has gone scorched Earth as of late. His discipline and numbers all suggest a real change. What's your read?
 
Jeff Sullivan
Power, obviously, is way up. What's fun about this one is he's actually hitting *more* ground balls! The approach is the real change. Fewer swings, especially out of the zone. I'm not going to analyze heat maps on the fly in a live chat, but I suspect he's just targeting pitches a little better, allowing him to tap into more strength he always had
I lied, I looked
Swinging less low, especially low and in. He's not going to keep hitting like 40% of his fly balls out of the yard, but I can see a modest improvement here, for real

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9 minutes ago, Random Dude said:

 

What is this from?

Looks like it's from his player page on BaseballSavant.com

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2 hours ago, Fenamo said:

This guy has the weirdest launch angle:

 

 

 

 

2017-05-05_11h10_39.png

can you add filters or something to the angle breakdown? when i view this, i get a different looking chart.. 

 

mg.PNG

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