Sign in to follow this  
ktierne3

Marwin Gonzalez 2017 Outlook

Recommended Posts

No one is concerned that his soft hit% went up and hes hitting LD's at a 8% clip?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, S1mcity said:

No one is concerned that his soft hit% went up and hes hitting LD's at a 8% clip?

 

I addressed this some in my post earlier. The soft hit percentage is up but it's not horrific. He's also reduced his strikeout percentage by five percentage points. The plate discipline stats show an improvement in plate discipline and his contact numbers have followed. His improved contact skills and lower K rates outweigh the increase in soft hit percentage. 

 

The line drives are obviously an issue. Again though, we look at the good hard hit rate and the improved contact skills, and I have hope that he will improve this ratio. Obviously it will be tough to improve the BABIP a ton without some more LDs, but I have hope. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, S1mcity said:

No one is concerned that his soft hit% went up and hes hitting LD's at a 8% clip?

I'm mildly concerned about the soft hit rate. The two are sort of connected at line drives are typically medium or hard hits. It's a small sample and the line drives will come, and soft should drop back to 14% or so.

 

I am more concerned about the 54% groundball rate, that needs to change. Small sample and his profile is all over the place. He's producing so if he's available you grab for the time being. You can make a more long term decision one the dust settles.... he's just a lotto ticket right now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, osb_tensor said:

can you add filters or something to the angle breakdown? when i view this, i get a different looking chart.. 

 

 

 

You're looking at 2016. I'm looking at 2017. There's a filter top right where you can switch the season.

 

Baseballsavant.com

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Random Dude said:

 

I addressed this some in my post earlier. The soft hit percentage is up but it's not horrific. He's also reduced his strikeout percentage by five percentage points. The plate discipline stats show an improvement in plate discipline and his contact numbers have followed. His improved contact skills and lower K rates outweigh the increase in soft hit percentage. 

 

The line drives are obviously an issue. Again though, we look at the good hard hit rate and the improved contact skills, and I have hope that he will improve this ratio. Obviously it will be tough to improve the BABIP a ton without some more LDs, but I have hope. 

 

Line drives don't stabilize until 600 AB. He's only 10% of the way there so that number is essentially meaningless.

 

Also, one thing I haven't seen mentioned on this topic yet is that BABIP excludes HR BABIP={\frac  {H-HR}{AB-K-HR+SF}}.

 

Over 50% of Marwin's hits have been home runs. He's had 51 balls in play, 17 hits, and 9 HR. If you add the home runs as hits his BABIP is .333. I consider BABIP another meaningless statistic in the case of our messiah due to the gigantic (and unsustainable) number of his hits turning into HR. 

 

Sources: 

Fangraphs stabilization points link. 

Marwin's Fangraphs page.

Wikipedia BABIP page.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

52 minutes ago, Sun Tzu said:

Well, looks like he's magically now got OF-eligibility on ESPN...

I love magic

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Sun Tzu said:

Well, looks like he's magically now got OF-eligibility on ESPN...

 

? On the ESPN app he's still 1st and 3rd for me. I'm new to this so unsure if it takes awhile to update for some 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, Fenamo said:

 

You're looking at 2016. I'm looking at 2017. There's a filter top right where you can switch the season.

 

Baseballsavant.com

no idea how i missed something that obvious.. much appreciated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People are still holding onto him? Injured his foot, but now that looks to be fine at this point. but was benched 3 times in the last week. Thoughts??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Picard56 said:

People are still holding onto him? Injured his foot, but now that looks to be fine at this point. but was benched 3 times in the last week. Thoughts??

He's testing my patience with the lack of playing time this week (foot, PPD, bench), but I have him for now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, StevieStats said:

He's testing my patience with the lack of playing time this week (foot, PPD, bench), but I have him for now. 

 

Same here, I don't know why he can't be the everyday in LF. Aoki and Mariscinick(I don't know how to spell his name) are better options?

Thinking about holding on for a little longer to see how the playing time unfolds

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

i just traded for him. the foot thing has muddied the PT situation lately, but i believe in the bat improvement and i think they'll keep him in the mix enough to be usable. could be wrong!

 

 

Edited by wily mo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not starting again... What are guys in 10 team leagues doing with him? hangning on or letting him go. This guy seems very legit, just the playing time issues kind of kills his value.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Picard56 said:

Not starting again... What are guys in 10 team leagues doing with him? hangning on or letting him go. This guy seems very legit, just the playing time issues kind of kills his value.

Kind of sucks

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So is the lack of PT the result of his injury and not being 100%? Or just not getting the starts? I'm not seeing any mention in blurbs of him still nursing an injury. 

 

Seems kinda strange he'd get sat for performance reasons for Aoki. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had him in my 10-teamer and dropped as soon as he went DTD.  The combination of what looked like a fluky power binge, the number of mouths to feed in Houston, and the injury concerns made me decide it wasn't worth holding on.  These super-sub guys often find themselves on the bench based on matchups / someone else getting hot, and while Aoki isn't going to light the world on fire, neither was Marwin until the hot stretch.  Turn and burn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sits too damn much!  He has a hitting streak going too. Is it really that crowded in Houston? Should've picked up hector perez instead...

Edited by borindia

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Marwin is a platoon player ... a very good platoon player.  Always has been and probably always will be.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

bear in mind that the astros are in an NL park today / this series, so they have one less lineup slot to go around than usual

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, wily mo said:

bear in mind that the astros are in an NL park today / this series, so they have one less lineup slot to go around than usual

 

 

 

Yeah, I thought of that as well, but even with the DH he gets benched.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Picard56 said:

Yeah, I thought of that as well, but even with the DH he gets benched.

 

sure. but he may or may not have been today with one more lineup slot available. just putting that out there for people to be aware of in case today's non-start is pushing them to the breaking point on holding him and the info might change their thinking any

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, wily mo said:

 

sure. but he may or may not have been today with one more lineup slot available. just putting that out there for people to be aware of in case today's non-start is pushing them to the breaking point on holding him and the info might change their thinking any

 

 

Looking out for the fellow forum members #respect!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jb_power said:

Marwin is a platoon player ... a very good platoon player.  Always has been and probably always will be.

 

 

Well he's not really a platoon player. He's a switch hitter with almost identical L/R splits. 

 

He might be a part time player, but he's not a platooner. But aren't most players part timers until they become full time? Not everyone comes up and starts consistently from day 1. 

 

Martin's still OPSing over 1.000 on the year, I just find it hard to believe you can't make room in the lineup for this guy, at least until he cools down. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this