fawkes_mulder

Luis Robert - OF - CHW

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2 hours ago, Sine_cera said:

 

True but teams are more careful bringing up their top hitters than they are with pitchers.  Considering the higher risk of injuries, they want to get as many innings as possible from their pitchers while they still can. 

Hope Michael kopech doesn’t read these forums.

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Just a bump to the discussion. I'm holding until after trade deadline and see if roster opens up a bit. 

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Blurb from Kiley’s chat today:

 

1:26

What do you need to see from Luis Robert to give him a FV 60+?

1:27

Kiley McDaniel: This goes back to a conversation I have with fantasy baseball dynasty friends that ask me which hitting prospects to pick up when they’re promoted. I tell them generally to take the lower K rate because their game translates to the big leagues easier (better performance from day 1) and they’ll reach their upside faster, even if it’s lower.

 

1:28

Kiley McDaniel: Then a friend didn’t want to bug me and assumed using K% as a guide that Lewis Brinson (18% in AAA in 2017) was a better bet than Cody Bellinger (20% in AA in 2016, 27% the year before that).

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: In retrospect that seems silly, but you can see there’s limits to this approach

 

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: I had to explain that Brinson was a swing and miss type with crazy tools that had a lower K rate because his tools didn’t allow him to be tested until MLB, so his AAA K rate makes him seem lower risk than he is

1:30

Kiley McDaniel: and Bellinger is power-focused, does it well and is an athlete with bat control (important distinction), so his approach was a conscious tradeoff and was mature in that it would work in AA similarly to how it would work in MLB

 

1:31

Kiley McDaniel: which is not obvious even from reading our reports closely, though you may pick up that sort of nuance if you’re a long-time reader

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: I bring all this up to say that while I’m not saying Luis Robert is Lewis Brinson, his issue is similar in that he’s so toolsy he can’t be challenged in AAA. We’ve heard from analysts and scouts that his pitch selection is still an issue (particularly off-speed) and he’ll need to figure that out in the big leagues, which could be painful and slow (Brinson) or go quickly because his tools are also elite in MLB and that it won’t challenge him for more than a couple months (Ronald Acuna).

 

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: Another recent White Sox super prospect, Yoan Moncada had an issue somewhere between Bellinger and Brinson, in that he was a little stiff and didn’t have elite bat control, but had a good approach, so he just needed to dial in his approach to do maximum damage when the right pitch was there and realize he wouldn’t be a career .300 hitter.

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: It took Moncada about 900 PA to make an improvement (he’s been pretty BABIP lucky this year, so the improvement is a little overstated) but we’ve said before that we’d much rather have a Moncada-type because the pitch selection and power means you’ll always get to the power in games since you can pick pitches to drive, you just may hit .250 or whatever (but w/solid OBP).

 

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: The other type of player, Brinson/Robert will have trouble getting to the power in games against elite pitching due to poorer pitch selection, also not walk much, so at least until an adjustment is made (if it is made), it’s empty batting average driven by bat control and people waiting for the breakout.

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: Explaining this in detail a few times makes me think we should grade plate discipline and bat control when elite hitting prospects are in the upper minors to help classify which sort of hitter each guy is.

 

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: So, the much shorter version is that Robert probably won’t be a 60 FV for us because to prove that he’s clear of the Lewis Brinson trap will probably take most of an MLB season to prove, given that we don’t think he’ll change in Triple-A.

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: (thus he will have graduated the prospect list when/if he proves it)

 

I thought this was an excellent description and well constructed evaluation.

Edited by bjvance5
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2 hours ago, bjvance5 said:

Blurb from Kiley’s chat today:

 

1:26

What do you need to see from Luis Robert to give him a FV 60+?

1:27

Kiley McDaniel: This goes back to a conversation I have with fantasy baseball dynasty friends that ask me which hitting prospects to pick up when they’re promoted. I tell them generally to take the lower K rate because their game translates to the big leagues easier (better performance from day 1) and they’ll reach their upside faster, even if it’s lower.

 

1:28

Kiley McDaniel: Then a friend didn’t want to bug me and assumed using K% as a guide that Lewis Brinson (18% in AAA in 2017) was a better bet than Cody Bellinger (20% in AA in 2016, 27% the year before that).

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: In retrospect that seems silly, but you can see there’s limits to this approach

 

1:29

Kiley McDaniel: I had to explain that Brinson was a swing and miss type with crazy tools that had a lower K rate because his tools didn’t allow him to be tested until MLB, so his AAA K rate makes him seem lower risk than he is

1:30

Kiley McDaniel: and Bellinger is power-focused, does it well and is an athlete with bat control (important distinction), so his approach was a conscious tradeoff and was mature in that it would work in AA similarly to how it would work in MLB

 

1:31

Kiley McDaniel: which is not obvious even from reading our reports closely, though you may pick up that sort of nuance if you’re a long-time reader

1:32

Kiley McDaniel: I bring all this up to say that while I’m not saying Luis Robert is Lewis Brinson, his issue is similar in that he’s so toolsy he can’t be challenged in AAA. We’ve heard from analysts and scouts that his pitch selection is still an issue (particularly off-speed) and he’ll need to figure that out in the big leagues, which could be painful and slow (Brinson) or go quickly because his tools are also elite in MLB and that it won’t challenge him for more than a couple months (Ronald Acuna).

 

1:34

Kiley McDaniel: Another recent White Sox super prospect, Yoan Moncada had an issue somewhere between Bellinger and Brinson, in that he was a little stiff and didn’t have elite bat control, but had a good approach, so he just needed to dial in his approach to do maximum damage when the right pitch was there and realize he wouldn’t be a career .300 hitter.

1:35

Kiley McDaniel: It took Moncada about 900 PA to make an improvement (he’s been pretty BABIP lucky this year, so the improvement is a little overstated) but we’ve said before that we’d much rather have a Moncada-type because the pitch selection and power means you’ll always get to the power in games since you can pick pitches to drive, you just may hit .250 or whatever (but w/solid OBP).

 

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: The other type of player, Brinson/Robert will have trouble getting to the power in games against elite pitching due to poorer pitch selection, also not walk much, so at least until an adjustment is made (if it is made), it’s empty batting average driven by bat control and people waiting for the breakout.

1:37

Kiley McDaniel: Explaining this in detail a few times makes me think we should grade plate discipline and bat control when elite hitting prospects are in the upper minors to help classify which sort of hitter each guy is.

 

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: So, the much shorter version is that Robert probably won’t be a 60 FV for us because to prove that he’s clear of the Lewis Brinson trap will probably take most of an MLB season to prove, given that we don’t think he’ll change in Triple-A.

1:38

Kiley McDaniel: (thus he will have graduated the prospect list when/if he proves it)

 

I thought this was an excellent description and well constructed evaluation.

 

I don’t agree with it 100% but I do agree that he did a great job of explaining his point of view there.

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tonite he is 2-3 with a 2B 2 R 2 BB 1 K and a SB. The major difference with Brinson and Robert is this, Brinson was always propped up since he was a trade chip. Brinson went in the lecroy trade then the Yelich trade. Marlins got stuck with him in the end. 

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2 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

tonite he is 2-3 with a 2B 2 R 2 BB 1 K and a SB. The major difference with Brinson and Robert is this, Brinson was always propped up since he was a trade chip. Brinson went in the lecroy trade then the Yelich trade. Marlins got stuck with him in the end. 

Robert is also a freakish athlete, much more so than brinson.  Sculpted out of marble and moves around the diamond like silk weaving through the wind. I feel like there are better comparisons McDaniel could have made; he just chose the one that supported his point best. 

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Also despite being 3 years older than Pantera, Brinson is striking out more, stealing less, hitting for less power, and hitting for less average in the minors. 

 

The tool set might have some similarities but it seems like you are comparing a rubber mallet to a ten lb sledgehammer. Yeah they are both technically hammers, but they aren’t really a fair comparison.  

Edited by GJDHouse

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On 7/25/2019 at 11:09 PM, sleepysock said:

Robert is also a freakish athlete, much more so than brinson.  Sculpted out of marble and moves around the diamond like silk weaving through the wind. I feel like there are better comparisons McDaniel could have made; he just chose the one that supported his point best. 

Agree %1000

 

Acuna is the comp for me... in that, the "explosiveness" in every aspect of his game is on another level! The "it" factor just oozes when you watch him do anything on a diamond... offense and defensively. I feel that Acuna has a lil better hit tool, but the pure talent and aggressiveness can play just fine... think Javy Baez kinda development. All the talent, but took a couple years to learn to NOT give AB's away. The strikeout percentage doesn't matter as much in the big scheme so long as you maximize prime opportunities. Get those ribeye steaks when they are sitting there, and mentally change approach to a degree when you have two strikes. When a guy K's 30%+ in this current madness of baseball, who cares when he goes .285/100/35/100/20+...? It's just the way baseball has morphed, we no longer think about what his stats would have been if he cut the K's and hit .300 +, we just dig the counting stats. (Now I understand the correlation between high K players and success, let alone counting stats... but Robert is IMHO the kind of rare talent where it won't matter in the end. His ability to be surrounded by, to learn from all the other special young SOX hitters will be a plus. He won't be pressured to be the savior, he'll just have a chance to blossom into the perennial 1'st rounder I feel he will become! In short order mind you, ala Acuna/ J. Baez)

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2 minutes ago, dcye said:

Rumour about that Robert is coming up this week.

Are you basing this off the Reddit guy claiming his friend overhears things working at the stadium, or another source?

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8 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Are you basing this off the Reddit guy claiming his friend overhears things working at the stadium, or another source?

 

The post in question:

I don't believe it, but I will always remember the Jose Quintana trade situation. Reddit users "katyperrysbootyhole" and "wettbutt23" broke the news like a day before the national media had it.  Hilarious.

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

 

The post in question:

I don't believe it, but I will always remember the Jose Quintana trade situation. Reddit users "katyperrysbootyhole" and "wettbutt23" broke the news like a day before the national media had it.  Hilarious.

Welp, good enough for me. Im adding everywhere just in case. 

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What will the OF look like when if/when he is up? Robert in CF, Eloy in LF, and Jon Jay/some rotation in RF? Or will Robert play RF occasionally? 

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3 hours ago, Dark Kn19ht said:

What will the OF look like when if/when he is up? Robert in CF, Eloy in LF, and Jon Jay/some rotation in RF? Or will Robert play RF occasionally? 

 

Probably a revolving door in RF unless they bring in a free agent this offseason.  Guys like Steele Walker and Blake Rutherford still have a lot of work to do in the minors.  The trio of Adolfo/Basabe/Gonzalez has been truly heinous.  And I don’t know why I’m giving Rutherford a pass - he has a .640 OPS in 353 Double A at bats. 

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Leurys will move from CF to give to Robert. but he will play somewhere. 

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The "working on his defense" excuse definitely doesn't work with Robert.  Kid is a walking highlight reel.

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6 hours ago, hailfire4 said:

Leurys will move from CF to give to Robert. but he will play somewhere. 

 

Leury is a quality bench player who does the little things well, similar to Yolmer Sanchez.  But overall, he’s definitely a scrub on offense with his 3.9% walk rate and .387 slugging percentage.  You can’t have a guy like that sniffing a starting gig.  

He’s a nice emergency starter/late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner. 

 

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17 minutes ago, RBI Sports said:

That kid has some long arms.....how's his swing? Long swing or short to the ball?

 

Hands to the ball ... Good length but not fully extended like Springer or Bellinger...finishes level slightly toward his shoulder blade.  Slightly open stance stepping more toward first than the pitcher.

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Birthday Call up? He turns 22 on Saturday.... Doubtful being on the road, but maybe? 

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35 minutes ago, Fenrir said:

Birthday Call up? He turns 22 on Saturday.... Doubtful being on the road, but maybe? 

 

The deleted Reddit post said the plan was for him to get the call for the next road tour. FWIW...which is very little.  I believe most of their other big call ups have been at home as well outside of Eloy which is obviously a unique situation. 

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Incredible. I think I’m more excited about his debut now than I was for either Acuna or Vladito. His speed, power, and defense are all bonkers level insanity. Such a fun player to watch.

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