lassetjus

Alex Avila 2017 Outlook

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This guy should have a thread. He needs to be freed. Or at least platoon him with James McCann. He went a stretch last week where he didn't start for like 5 straight days. Even in a part time role, he is currently the 3rd ranked catcher on Yahoo behind Posey and Brian McCann and he might even jump into the 2nd spot after tonight's big game. His biggest issue has been his health. But he has also made positive changes this year.

 

He is striking out less this year, 25.6% to 37.3% last year.

He is hitting only 20% ground balls, an excellent thing for a guy who can't run well.

He is hitting a whopping 35.6% line drive rate, which is helping explain his ridiculous .463 BABIP.

His flyball rate is a yummy 44.4% with 0% popups!

That flyball rate is yummy because his hard hit % is a whopping 57.8%.

 

Yes, these are all small sample sizes but he is finally healthy this year.

Yes, the BABIP will regress, but guess what, here is the best part.

 

Statcast / Baseball Savant loves him. He leads ALL PLAYERS with a minimum of 50 AB's, in xWOBA - at a silly .550. The next closest player is Freddie Freeman at .464. Then Aaron Judge at .438. Avila's actual WOBA (before tonight's game) is .459, meaning according to statcast, he actually has more room to get better! Not regress. Ridiculous.

 

Definition of wOBA

Definition of xwOBA (expected wOBA)

 

In a year where the catching position has been so terrible for anyone not named Posey or McCann, I wonder if it might even make sense to roster Avila over guys with more counting stats (because of more playing time) but with terrible batting averages that hurt you. It may be better to just take the blank Avila off days and then reap the rewards when he plays.

Edited by lassetjus

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Had him on my roster for about a week and had to eventually drop him because of how little he played. As you said he would need to be platooned with another catcher and I just didn't have the room on my bench at the time. Although I notice he's now 1B eligible and seems to be playing a little bit more. It may be time to take another look.

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On 5/20/2017 at 9:25 PM, lassetjus said:

This guy should have a thread. He needs to be freed. Or at least platoon him with James McCann. He went a stretch last week where he didn't start for like 5 straight days. Even in a part time role, he is currently the 3rd ranked catcher on Yahoo behind Posey and Brian McCann and he might even jump into the 2nd spot after tonight's big game. His biggest issue has been his health. But he has also made positive changes this year.

 

He is striking out less this year, 25.6% to 37.3% last year.

He is hitting only 20% ground balls, an excellent thing for a guy who can't run well.

He is hitting a whopping 35.6% line drive rate, which is helping explain his ridiculous .463 BABIP.

His flyball rate is a yummy 44.4% with 0% popups!

That flyball rate is yummy because his hard hit % is a whopping 57.8%.

 

Yes, these are all small sample sizes but he is finally healthy this year.

Yes, the BABIP will regress, but guess what, here is the best part.

 

Statcast / Baseball Savant loves him. He leads ALL PLAYERS with a minimum of 50 AB's, in xWOBA - at a silly .550. The next closest player is Freddie Freeman at .464. Then Aaron Judge at .438. Avila's actual WOBA (before tonight's game) is .459, meaning according to statcast, he actually has more room to get better! Not regress. Ridiculous.

 

Definition of wOBA

Definition of xwOBA (expected wOBA)

 

In a year where the catching position has been so terrible for anyone not named Posey or McCann, I wonder if it might even make sense to roster Avila over guys with more counting stats (because of more playing time) but with terrible batting averages that hurt you. It may be better to just take the blank Avila off days and then reap the rewards when he plays.

 

Dave Cameron over at Fangraphs just posted a new article today that contains many of the points I listed above, in a more comprehensive and better way.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-tigers-have-found-another-slugger/

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I just bought. There's a lot of recent press on this guy so ownership likely to skyrocket over the next week or so. 

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i'm very interested in avila.. i had him a few years back when he had a monster season and it appears he's trending toward another one.

question, though, what does his playing time look like and is james mccann a significantly better game caller? will avila sit regularly due to defensive liabilities is my general concern/comment/question..

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Can't go wrong with Avila. The only problem is that he splits time....but guess what, it's a 'good' problem to have with that BA of his.

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Had him since week 3. Loving the production. He is being platooned of course, but that has helped him greatly. The AVG will likely come down but he is only making 4% soft contact and has a 94.5 avg exit velocity. Money!

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if he keeps raking he's gonna be getting the opportunity, he can spell miggy at 1B, spell Vmart at DH and that'd be enough to be a near full time starter

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Another dong.  That should put him at C3 or C4 in 5x5 z-score rankings despite having maybe 60-70% of the PAs of the other players around him.  Waiver gold!

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11 hours ago, ArcaneCharge said:

Haven't been paying attention until now because I need a Bour replacement. Do we think he'll play often enough to be a starting CI?

 

I guess it all depends on league depth but I wouldn't want to put him anywhere other than catcher.

Edited by lassetjus

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Avila bomb!

 

Three dongs in last three games.

Edited by Beakman
Dong update

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Avila might only get 350 PA's this year, but his per game production is off the charts. He might sit a few times a week and still be better than other everyday catchers.

 

He's absolutely destroying righties.

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9 hours ago, GriffeySwag said:

Avila might only get 350 PA's this year, but his per game production is off the charts. He might sit a few times a week and still be better than other everyday catchers.

 

He's absolutely destroying righties.

Does he sit against lefties? He homers every time he plays, the problem is he doesn't play enough.

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10 minutes ago, bradwatson said:

Does he sit against lefties? He homers every time he plays, the problem is he doesn't play enough.

 

Career .611 OPS vs. LHP, .797 vs. RHP.  A HR every ~72 PA against LHP vs. a HR every ~29 PA vs. RHP.  I don't think you really want him in there vs. LHP with those kind of splits.

 

Either stream a second catcher in if your league setup is conducive to it, or just be happy he's not hurting you when he's out of the lineup.

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Just now, tonycpsu said:

 

Career .611 OPS vs. LHP, .797 vs. RHP.  A HR every ~72 PA against LHP vs. a HR every ~29 PA vs. RHP.  I don't think you really want him in there vs. LHP with those kind of splits.

 

Either stream a second catcher in if your league setup is conducive to it, or just be happy he's not hurting you when he's out of the lineup.

Not worth eating a second roster spot for such a miserable position. I'm debating cutting Castillo loose and just rolling with him ROS.

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Why is this guy the backup? He absolutely scorches the ball when he makes contact. ISO is at .313, only 5.2% of his contact is soft and 59.7 % hard hit contact according to fangraphs and he's spraying the ball all over the field. I would love to see what he could do with everyday at-bats. I think he could be the Yonder Alonso of catchers.

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18 minutes ago, elrey said:

Why is this guy the backup? He absolutely scorches the ball when he makes contact. ISO is at .313, only 5.2% of his contact is soft and 59.7 % hard hit contact according to fangraphs and he's spraying the ball all over the field. I would love to see what he could do with everyday at-bats. I think he could be the Yonder Alonso of catchers.

Avila has pretty severe career splits vs lefties and this guy isn't exactly a spring chicken.  Tigers are doing the smart thing by limiting his ab.

 

DH isn't an option since Victor plugs that up full time .  He plays some 1b, but miggy obviously is there .

 

also, James McCann is not a bad catcher .  Defensively he's good and he's young w upside offensively.  One of the few young tigers players to maybe build around.

 

Avilia will continue to split time at catcher and will be hidden from most lefties. Nice story tho this year .... he's been very solid so far .

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On 6/10/2017 at 4:21 PM, afgolfman666 said:

Avila has pretty severe career splits vs lefties and this guy isn't exactly a spring chicken.  Tigers are doing the smart thing by limiting his ab.

 

DH isn't an option since Victor plugs that up full time .  He plays some 1b, but miggy obviously is there .

 

also, James McCann is not a bad catcher .  Defensively he's good and he's young w upside offensively.  One of the few young tigers players to maybe build around.

 

Avilia will continue to split time at catcher and will be hidden from most lefties. Nice story tho this year .... he's been very solid so far .

 

He's being hidden from lefties really hard. Brutal playing time. Benched for a 3rd game in a row. Has a 1.349 OPS in June so it's not like he has slowed down from his overall 1.074 OPS. But no, James McCann and his .188 AVG has to get in the lineup. Avila has so far produced 2.0 WAR in part time and McCann only 0.3 WAR. Does Ausmus want to win or not?

Edited by lassetjus

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1 hour ago, lassetjus said:

 

He's being hidden from lefties really hard. Brutal playing time. Benched for a 3rd game in a row. Has a 1.349 OPS in June so it's not like he has slowed down from his overall 1.074 OPS. But no, James McCann and his .188 AVG has to get in the lineup. Avila has so far produced 2.0 WAR in part time and McCann only 0.3 WAR. Does Ausmus want to win or not?

Avilia is not a winning player vs lefties .  Friday - Sunday were vs three straight lefties.... Johnson, sale, and pomeranz.  One of those guys is elite and another very tough vs lefties.

 

McCann is good defensively, young, and is not a guy the tigers will give up on.

 

the platoon will not change.. nor should it 

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2 hours ago, lassetjus said:

 

He's being hidden from lefties really hard. Brutal playing time. Benched for a 3rd game in a row. Has a 1.349 OPS in June so it's not like he has slowed down from his overall 1.074 OPS. But no, James McCann and his .188 AVG has to get in the lineup. Avila has so far produced 2.0 WAR in part time and McCann only 0.3 WAR. Does Ausmus want to win or not?

 

 

was just 2 games.  my bad, was 3

Edited by rich22

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Heads up if Avila's still available in your league -- he's playing 1B tonight and just cracked another dong.  Looks like he might be in line for everyday-ish PT now that V-Mart's on the DL.

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