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Demaryius Thomas 2017 Outlook


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1 hour ago, herschel said:

DT not getting much love as hes not a very sexy pick.  Fitz was the same way for a couple of years.  I guess the question is does he remain a consistent borderline WR1 or is this the beginning of a drop off.  qb play and age both working against him.  sheer skill set and athleticism obviously the pros.  which way do people think his season will go....

 

He would have to break a few long scores to be a wr1 this year (not impossible). But even a repeat of last year is good enough for me. Possible he's built up more of a rapport with the qb's as well. Consistent but not a big ceiling. A sexier version of Golden Tate. 

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3 minutes ago, Red Sox Nation said:

 

He would have to break a few long scores to be a wr1 this year (not impossible). But even a repeat of last year is good enough for me. Possible he's built up more of a rapport with the qb's as well. Consistent but not a big ceiling. A sexier version of Golden Tate. 

A sexier version of Golden Tate....lol

except not at all.  For so many reasons.  

 

DT is more likely than not to break a number of long runs after catch.   It's a major focus of the McCoy scheme this season.  Siemian delivers an excellent on time and on target quick strike which bodes well for bubble screens and flats that DT is known for breaking.   The perfect combination of speed and ability to overpower defenders.     He's also a lock for 1000 yards as a floor.  

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His cutting weight down to 212 is very, very good news.

 

He's a big receiver, but he's never played that way consistently. Frankly (and I think he's terrific and own plenty of him this year), I think he's sort of soft, both physically and mentally. He's at his best when he gets peppered with targets and has a chance to play a speed game close to the LOS. That seems to sort of keep his head in the game and gives him a tendency to counter off of for deeper looks. He uses his size a lot better after the catch than before it. I think McCoy knows that.

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1 hour ago, Impreza178 said:

A sexier version of Golden Tate....lol

except not at all.  For so many reasons.  

 

DT is more likely than not to break a number of long runs after catch.   It's a major focus of the McCoy scheme this season.  Siemian delivers an excellent on time and on target quick strike which bodes well for bubble screens and flats that DT is known for breaking.   The perfect combination of speed and ability to overpower defenders.     He's also a lock for 1000 yards as a floor.  

 

Golden Tate last year - 91 rec, 1,077 yards, 4 tds

Demaryius Thomas - 90 rec, 1,083 yards, 5 tds

 

Also, Tate finished the year with 53 rec and 643 yards over his final 8 games. DT should feel lucky to play at that pace given his QB. So yes, again I state, a sexier Golden Tate. 

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55 minutes ago, irvnasty said:

His cutting weight down to 212 is very, very good news.

 

He's a big receiver, but he's never played that way consistently. Frankly (and I think he's terrific and own plenty of him this year), I think he's sort of soft, both physically and mentally. He's at his best when he gets peppered with targets and has a chance to play a speed game close to the LOS. That seems to sort of keep his head in the game and gives him a tendency to counter off of for deeper looks. He uses his size a lot better after the catch than before it. I think McCoy knows that.

 

I think McCoy is a fantastic offensive mind.  He does a great job adjusting to his players and catering to their strengths..

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Nabbed him at pick 33. Anything close to WR1 production is good in my books. I think last year's performance is his floor, he should benefit from another year of chemistry between him and Siemian as well as the addition of McCoy.

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Hes been sliding down to 27-30 in a few espn mocks recently. I like a couple of younger ascending WR's more than him within that tier...but he if falls I am happy to snag him. 

 

He faces Peters twice a year so I think you kind of have to pick your spots a little bit. 

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3 hours ago, scheibler said:

What makes him any better then sanders this year? I see alot of people claiming last year was his floor, but I wouldnt be suprised if he he gets even worse

 

Sanders is a much better route runner and better downfield.  With Simien at QB, the bubble screen is going to be their best play.  That's DT's specialty.

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6 minutes ago, Nap Time said:

 

Sanders is a much better route runner and better downfield.  With Simien at QB, the bubble screen is going to be their best play.  That's DT's specialty.

 

I'm just not feeling it I guess. Dont want to rely on mostly bubble screens from my wr1/2. He's always banged up with small injuries..like tonight he left the gaje with a groin injury. I'd rather take sanders two-three rounds later or a guy like keenan or hopkins

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24 minutes ago, scheibler said:

 

I'm just not feeling it I guess. Dont want to rely on mostly bubble screens from my wr1/2. He's always banged up with small injuries..like tonight he left the gaje with a groin injury. I'd rather take sanders two-three rounds later or a guy like keenan or hopkins

Yeah, he's always missing games. 

 

In fact, he missed 0 last year. And he missed 0 the year before that. He missed another 0 the year before that. Not to mention he missed 0 the year before that. And don't forget that he missed 0 the year before that too. 

 

Be careful with this guy. 

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Just now, ajs723 said:

Yeah, he's always missing games. 

 

In fact, he missed 0 last year. And he missed 0 the year before that. He missed another 0 the year before that. Not to mention he missed 0 the year before that. And don't forget that he missed 0 the year before that too. 

 

Be careful with this guy. 

 

He's missed alot of quarters of football. Hes always banged up, gimpy, amd plays soft to his size. I'd possibly draft him in the 4th and not be excited about it

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

Yeah, he's always missing games. 

 

In fact, he missed 0 last year. And he missed 0 the year before that. He missed another 0 the year before that. Not to mention he missed 0 the year before that. And don't forget that he missed 0 the year before that too. 

 

Be careful with this guy. 

 

It's not about durability...it's about his very low ceiling since 2014. And now entering his age-30 season.

 

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3 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

It's not about durability...it's about his very low ceiling since 2014. And now entering his age-30 season.

 

He won't be 30 until Christmas, so this is really his age 29 season. 

 

As for a low ceiling, that's subjective. He's still been a low end WR1, high end WR2. If you draft him as such, you won't be disappointed. 

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36 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

He won't be 30 until Christmas, so this is really his age 29 season. 

 

As for a low ceiling, that's subjective. He's still been a low end WR1, high end WR2. If you draft him as such, you won't be disappointed. 

 

Not subjective if you've owned him either of the past 2 seasons. Only 2 top-12 WR weeks since week 12 of 2014. That's a LOW ceiling for a 3rd-4th rd pick. 

 

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1 hour ago, scheibler said:

 

He's missed alot of quarters of football. Hes always banged up, gimpy, amd plays soft to his size. I'd possibly draft him in the 4th and not be excited about it

 

He's also put up over 1,000 yards every year since he's been the main WR in Denver.  He finished as the 13th WR in PPR last year and he's going as the 16th WR in redraft right now.  He seems to be going right where he should be.

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1 hour ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not subjective if you've owned him either of the past 2 seasons. Only 2 top-12 WR weeks since week 12 of 2014. That's a LOW ceiling for a 3rd-4th rd pick. 

 

 

He also has an incredibly high floor.  WR6, WR1, WR2, WR11, and WR16 the last five years.  The last two years have been with terrible QB play; the QB situation can't be any worse this year than last.  Yet I'm seeing him going as low as WR17 (where I got him Monday in an auction).  I like acquiring players at a price that is basically at their floor.

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3 hours ago, ajs723 said:

Yeah, he's always missing games. 

 

In fact, he missed 0 last year. And he missed 0 the year before that. He missed another 0 the year before that. Not to mention he missed 0 the year before that. And don't forget that he missed 0 the year before that too. 

 

Be careful with this guy. 

 

lol, well said.  SKOOLED!!

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10 hours ago, KennyWoo said:

 

He also has an incredibly high floor.  WR6, WR1, WR2, WR11, and WR16 the last five years.  The last two years have been with terrible QB play; the QB situation can't be any worse this year than last.  Yet I'm seeing him going as low as WR17 (where I got him Monday in an auction).  I like acquiring players at a price that is basically at their floor.

So his wr ranking has dropped for four years in a row and at WR 17 that projects him to drop one more spot in WR rankings this year.  That seems about right.  Don't think I would want to take him much higher than that....

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13 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not subjective if you've owned him either of the past 2 seasons. Only 2 top-12 WR weeks since week 12 of 2014. That's a LOW ceiling for a 3rd-4th rd pick. 

 

 

This data is inaccurate.  He had at least three top-12 weeks last season alone.  I didn't check 2015.

 

Edit: He had at least three top-12 weeks in 2015 as well.  

 

What was your source for this "statistic"?

Edited by KennyWoo
Added additional data which further destroyed the premise cited
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1 hour ago, herschel said:

So his wr ranking has dropped for four years in a row and at WR 17 that projects him to drop one more spot in WR rankings this year.  That seems about right.  Don't think I would want to take him much higher than that....

 

While I appreciate your faith in me, where I take a player in a draft does not "project" his performance going forward.

 

He's "dropped" three years in a row (not four) and one of those "drops" was from WR1 overall to WR2 overall.  

 

Unless the Denver offense gets worse than last year (can it?) I can't see Thomas (if healthy) worse than about WR22.  And that's a great floor for a player you can get around WR16-17.  This is the kind of "anchor" guy that allows you to take risky players in other slots if you are so inclined.

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13 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Not subjective if you've owned him either of the past 2 seasons. Only 2 top-12 WR weeks since week 12 of 2014. That's a LOW ceiling for a 3rd-4th rd pick. 

 

 

He had 4 WR1 games for me just last year alone.

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