Light Tower Power

Yordan Alvarez 1B HOU

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System needs to be fixed. This is BS. 

Edited by Sonny_D
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I really, really, really didn't want to play the "this is bad for baseball card" in this thread.

I give up.  This entire situation is F___ing BaD fOR bASeBaLL. 

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

Anyone catch how his fielding looked tonight though?

Lol.  Probably still needs work even though he's been an OF for a long enough time already....  He can't possibly be as bad as Jose Martinez (or likely Franmil Reyes even though I've never really seen him play).

They've said White isn't going to be used much anymore, so there you go.  Brantley to DH and Alvarez to LF, with Alvarez DH'ing some when they want to use Brantley in the OF (basically a J.D. Martinez situation).  Stop hiding behind the defense excuse, when he is likely whatever he is out there, and just make the move.  Yes, their offense is red hot right now, but every day Alvarez makes AAA pitchers look like little leaguers is still a waste.

Edited by KilloWertz

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Throwing it out there. He's about 6 months older than Eloy was last year, but he's putting up better numbers, even factoring in the ball. 

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

Throwing it out there. He's about 6 months older than Eloy was last year, but he's putting up better numbers, even factoring in the ball. 

 

Kinda sorta. With so many guys already into double digit homers along both MLB and AAA it’s hard to say exactly how much credit goes to the super juicy ball. Regardless, he’s a potential all-star caliber Major League Baseball player right now and he’s still wasting ABs in the minors. I’ll be the millionth person that says this s--- is just bad for the game. 

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This is basically copy and paste arguments from last year regarding Vlad - the only difference is the records of the teams.  Houston needs to STOP dominating offensively and have a real threat, otherwise, Alvarez is simply that wildcard sitting in their back pocket for an emergency

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6 hours ago, sleepysock said:

 

Kinda sorta. With so many guys already into double digit homers along both MLB and AAA it’s hard to say exactly how much credit goes to the super juicy ball. Regardless, he’s a potential all-star caliber Major League Baseball player right now and he’s still wasting ABs in the minors. I’ll be the millionth person that says this s--- is just bad for the game. 

His WRC+ is far superior to Eloy's last year and that stat is league and park adjusted.  Granted it's barely over a month into the minor league season .

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11 hours ago, knuckleheads said:

 

I suppose they look at every player as a chip that is not to be thrown away.  However, something simply has to be done...

Tyler White is a trade chip? A 1B/DH type that can’t hit his weight, with no speed, and not an elite defender.  I mean, I guess I can see why they think other teams would be knocking down their door to get him. It’s not like there are hundreds of those guys in the minors. And honestly, that might be all Yordan turns out to be, but with the way he’s hitting the ball right now, I believe I would like to find out if I were the Astros. 

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Well I officially have my new team name and logo when he gets the call at least

 

 

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9 hours ago, jahweedum said:

This is basically copy and paste arguments from last year regarding Vlad - the only difference is the records of the teams.  Houston needs to STOP dominating offensively and have a real threat, otherwise, Alvarez is simply that wildcard sitting in their back pocket for an emergency

I'm not sure why guys feel like MLB teams need to jump at every hot MiLB bat, especially when there isn't a pressing need. Houston has rattled off 8 in a row. They lead the majors in win % and runs scored. I'd rather them wait until he's going to play daily and not have to worry about losing playing time. 

His defense is awful. Awful. Bad enough that K-Law (even though I think it's idiotic) completely leaves him off the top 100 because of it. Not saying that means much, really, but it goes to show how bad it is. Houston already wants to keep Brantley off the field as much as possible. 


Go read the Kyle Tucker thread, circa 2018. So many guys were in fits because Houston wasn't calling him up. He was hitting .332 with a .989 OPS in AAA @ 21, great K and BB rates. He was a dead fish in the majors. 

I'm not saying Alvarez = Tucker, and maybe they catch lightning in a bottle and call him up and he doesn't miss a beat, but they aren't hurting anything giving him more than a 40 game sample in the minors. 

I would love to see Alvarez up and mashing right now. I also understand why he isn't, and not just from a financial/service time standpoint. 

If he's not up in the next month, I'll be in a fit too (as long as he's still hitting). I understand why they were giving White a more extended look, and I think it's clear he just isn't going to produce. I think they should move on. His career #'s are still "ok" and he was a + bat last year at age 27, they had to give him a shot. They're past that point now. I expect to see Tucker or Yordan in the next two weeks, and I honestly think it's gonna be Tucker first.

 

I still think Alvarez ends up as a trade chip to bring in an arm. 

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34 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

His defense is awful. Awful. Bad enough that K-Law (even though I think it's idiotic) completely leaves him off the top 100 because of it. Not saying that means much, really, but it goes to show how bad it is. Houston already wants to keep Brantley off the field as much as possible. 

 

Genuine question: is his defense really "awful"? I get that it's far from his strength but "awful" seems like a stretch to me based on what I've read.  Various preseason scouting quotes from some of the usual sources:

Quote

doesn’t run well enough to play center field and arm fits best in left but he should be a competent outfield defender and played errorless ball in 26 games at first base

Quote

Alvarez can play an average 1B where his quickness and coordination will allow him to make the routine plays despite less than stellar hands. He can fill in at LF where his range and arm will cause him to be below-average.

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Defensively, there is enough arm to stay in a corner outfield position. In the fifth inning vs. Northwest Arkansas, he showed carry on a throw to the plate and a  quick enough release. Although not a plus athlete, he shows enough instinct in the outfield to be at worst an average left fielder.

Quote

He has shown more aptitude in left field than at first base and his arm earns fringy to average grades.

 

It sounds like in general most reports expect him to be slightly below average at LF/1B.  Not that it means as much given how many games he has played in OF and DH but he has 0 errors in AAA.  Yes Luhnow specifically mentioned he needs to work on his OF defense, but he also didn't exactly throw him under the bus saying he's a scrub either.  

Quote

Álvarez is "actually a faster person than you would anticipate," according to Luhnow. Routes and reaction times have been slower for Álvarez to grasp in the outfield, Luhnow said, perhaps the only thing holding Álvarez back from a major league call-up.

 

I haven't watched him, nor am I a scout though so maybe I'm missing some key details here. He's a solid analyst but at this point it's hard for me to trust Keith Law's take on Yordan. I get his points but overall he seems to just double down and get pissy whenever anyone questions his analysis, which is what he seems to be doing now.

Edited by Baur10
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15 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Genuine question: is his defense really "awful"? I get that it's far from his strength but "awful" seems like a stretch to me based on what I've read.  Various preseason scouting quotes from some of the usual sources:

 

It sounds like in general most reports expect him to be slightly below average at LF/1B.  Not that it means as much given how many games he has played in OF and DH but he has 0 errors in AAA.  Yes Luhnow specifically mentioned he needs to work on his OF defense, but he also didn't exactly throw him under the bus saying he's a scrub either.  

 

I haven't watched him, nor am I a scout though so maybe I'm missing some key details here. He's a solid analyst but at this point it's hard for me to trust Keith Law's take on Yordan. I get his points but overall he seems to just double down and get pissy whenever anyone questions his analysis, which is what he seems to be doing now.

 

I definitely agree about Law. 

From everything I've read and gathered, yeah, it's awful. I mean, I don't see it being especially good or bad when I do watch him ( which has been once this year, I have barely enough time to watch Houston, let alone a minor league affiliate). 

Supposedly Luhnow thinks he has a better shot at sticking in LF opposed to 1B, and I've seen enough Schwarber and JDM in the OF to get an idea on how much I don't want to watch Yordan out there, if it's that bad. 

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And I was having it out with Law on twitter yesterday defending Yordan's honor. Blows my mind how bull headed he seems to be about this. I agree, I think he's doubling down just to be difficult. 

Historically he has pretty much discarded anyone who doesn't play a position (Willie Calhoun, Hoskins come to mind in recent memory). 

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4 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

And I was having it out with Law on twitter yesterday defending Yordan's honor. Blows my mind how bull headed he seems to be about this. I agree, I think he's doubling down just to be difficult. 

Historically he has pretty much discarded anyone who doesn't play a position (Willie Calhoun, Hoskins come to mind in recent memory). 

 

You should share the highlights of that exchange, lol.

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5 minutes ago, AHF said:

 

You should share the highlights of that exchange, lol.

 

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9 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

 

 

Ha well done. I get the "juiced balls" excuse (although as you pointed out it's the same ball as the MLB) but the "it's the PCL so it doesn't count" excuse is such nonsense.  Not all PCL parks are made equal.  His home park in Round Rock is below average in park factor for hitting.  In fact even away he has only played games in NO, Nashville, Memphis, OKC, SA, and Omaha so far.  Best I can tell they are all average at best parks for hitters.  The park factor excuse is just lazy.

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Hm. It's likely that one of two things is true:

Either Keith Law sucks at his job and can't admit mistakes, in which case you can safely start ignoring him as a prospect evaluator. 

Or-- and hear me out here-- Keith Law is good at his job and has valuable, nuanced information and insight that goes beyond surface-level stats. 

 

In either instance, continuing to pester him with accusatory remarks about his Alvarez ranking is futile at best. 

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37 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

Ha well done. I get the "juiced balls" excuse (although as you pointed out it's the same ball as the MLB) but the "it's the PCL so it doesn't count" excuse is such nonsense.  Not all PCL parks are made equal.  His home park in Round Rock is below average in park factor for hitting.  In fact even away he has only played games in NO, Nashville, Memphis, OKC, SA, and Omaha so far.  Best I can tell they are all average at best parks for hitters.  The park factor excuse is just lazy.

I always prefer to base performance vs peers. What a guy does is irrelevant without context. If Alvarez was doing this but half a dozen guys were hitting for a higher average, half a dozen other guys were hitting more homers, half a dozen were doing it K'ing less or walking more, etc. I'm sure you know, but if you click that tweet it will show the full convo. 

2 minutes ago, Rabbit Maranville said:

Hm. It's likely that one of two things is true:

Either Keith Law sucks at his job and can't admit mistakes, in which case you can safely start ignoring him as a prospect evaluator. 

 Or-- and hear me out here-- Keith Law is good at his job and has valuable, nuanced information and insight that goes beyond surface-level stats. 

In either instance, continuing to pester him with accusatory remarks about his Alvarez ranking is futile at best. 

Both can be partially true. And, to be honest, I don't know if his rankings are based more on real life baseball value (like what kind of WAR player they will be) or what kind of fantasy impact a guy can have. They usually go hand in hand. I truly believe he gets his heels dug in about a guy and will stick to his guns no matter what in cases like that. My next question was going to be "What does Yordan Alvarez have to do for you to put him in the top 100?" Just for curiousity. 
I don't take any 1 evaluator as gospel, and Law is no exception. I value his input highly (and mentioned as so in a tweet when I said I don't have to follow his content but do because he puts out good content, and I just happen to disagree here). 

Keith Law is good at his job. Period. Fantasy baseball writers/prospectors/evaluators are essentially weathermen predicting production instead of how much rain we'll get next week. You can make a more eduacted guess with more data, but the real result could be a wide range of outcomes. However, Law's big ding against Alvarez is his defense, or lackthereof, and I think leaving a guy completely off the top 100 due to it is indefensible. I made more counters to what he said than I intended to because he brought up things like how Marsh was young for his level (which wasn't much of a point when Alvarez is too, even younger, then he went on to say how age differential doesn't matter... wait, what?). He brings up Marsh's OBP, but his AVG, K rate, SLG are abysmal. Again, not about Marsh, but at what point is defense the primary factor vs offense? 

If a Keith Law follower is in your league and owns Yordan Alvarez, you should be making some offers. 

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22 minutes ago, Rabbit Maranville said:

Hm. It's likely that one of two things is true:

Either Keith Law sucks at his job and can't admit mistakes, in which case you can safely start ignoring him as a prospect evaluator. 

Or-- and hear me out here-- Keith Law is good at his job and has valuable, nuanced information and insight that goes beyond surface-level stats. 

In either instance, continuing to pester him with accusatory remarks about his Alvarez ranking is futile at best. 

 

🙄 It can absolutely be both.  I can recognize that he is a solid nuanced evaluator that knows much more than I do, and still be disappointed/questioning of the dismissive way in which he answers questions.  He isn't saying "I still think he isn't in my top 100 for XYZ reason".  He's giving responses like "No" and "that isn't how you should ask that question" which is weak.  Even when pushed he gives very vague and somewhat contradictory responses. Some examples just in that one thread

- he commented on the relative age of another prospect but was dismissive when someone else brought up Alvarez's relative age being lower for his level

- he mentions Alvarez is in a "hitters league" despite the fact that he has yet to play at one of the hitter friendly parks in the PCL

- he says he doesn't believe he is an elite batter with zero supporting information and not to focus on a SSS of this year despite the fact that he has dropped Yordan in his evaluations based on a similar sample size

I will continue to value his opinion in preseason prospect evaluations.  I am still very wary of anyone appears unable and/or unwilling to address questions.

Edited by Baur10

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27 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:


If a Keith Law follower is in your league and owns Yordan Alvarez, you should be making some offers. 

I have to think anyone who follows prospects and has Yordan on their dynasty team is not giving away Yordan cheap, even if they follow Klaw. I read Klaw's stuff, it's interesting, sometimes very helpful. Going to ignore him on this one.   He's down on him and on top of that he's devalued on the list compared to fantasy. 

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On 5/15/2019 at 9:56 PM, Dark One said:

Again, just going by Luhnow's own words

A wise man once said actions speak louder than words

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13 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

I have to think anyone who follows prospects and has Yordan on their dynasty team is not giving away Yordan cheap, even if they follow Klaw. I read Klaw's stuff, it's interesting, sometimes very helpful. Going to ignore him on this one.   He's down on him and on top of that he's devalued on the list compared to fantasy. 

I agree. I don't expect anyone to sell low on him, K-Law disciple or not. 

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There are plenty of big leaguers playing bad defense. At least he's in the AL, so what's the problem? NL I could see it being more of a "problem".

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