Light Tower Power

Yordan Alvarez 1B HOU

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2 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

 

Well that's disappointing. I'm remembering all the Tucker talk from last year now that you mention it.  Hard to argue with their player development/management system at this point though I guess.

 

I definitely understand their position and their success at building a winner while still producing top end minor league talent to help them reload is impressive. As a fantasy player, however, it just makes it very hard to assess when they'll do something because they operate off their own timelines.

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13 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

I definitely understand their position and their success at building a winner while still producing top end minor league talent to help them reload is impressive. As a fantasy player, however, it just makes it very hard to assess when they'll do something because they operate off their own timelines.

 

Exactly. I get it but sucks.  I'm hoping the early contract extensions and quick call ups we've seen over the past year starts to turn into a trend in the MLB but we'll see.  In the mean time I guess daily HR highlights from Yordan will have to do.

Edited by Baur10

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

My memory is a bit hazy, how aggressive are the Astros typically with prospect call ups?  Correa was June, Springer April, but other than that I don't know the organization well.  Gurriel has been decent but Kemp/White have been a clear weak link so there's clearly a place for him even without an injury.

Springer could have gotten the call in the middle of 2013.  But 'Stros were in full rebuild mode then so it didn't make sense.  Bregman came up around August of 2016.  Middle of pennant race.  Correa was really the only one who seemed to get the call slightly ahead of schedule in 2015.  Tucker got his shot during a pennant race but did not thrive/get enough PT.

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Look at the easy power that his swing generates:

 

Astros would need to DFA White or Kemp to add him to the 25-man roster, which I don't seen happening any time soon. But if the Astros have a injury that requires a IL stint I'll be running to the waiver wires.

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5 hours ago, oswald737 said:

Whatever the opposite of aggressive is defines the Astros. As much as I want to believe they'll call up Yordan, I have no confidence that it'll be soon enough to warrant a redraft stash. Maybe after Super-2, but I don't even feel good about that. We just went through waiting on Tucker last year... we're still waiting on them and Whitley again... and now Alvarez.

That's not necessarily true. Bregman was up early and got an extended stay. I don't think Tucker is ready. Whitley has yet to log major innings in the minors. 

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5 hours ago, Baur10 said:

 

Well that's disappointing. I'm remembering all the Tucker talk from last year now that you mention it.  Hard to argue with their player development/management system at this point though I guess.

And what did Tucker do when he was up? What's he doing now? 

 

Gaudy stat lines don't always mean a guy is ready. There is a belief for some that you can stunt a guy bringing him up too soon. 

 

I think Alvarez is up this summer. 

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And also, fwiw, I didn't think Tucker should be up. 

 

I think super 2 is kinda irrelevant with the way things are going. How many arbitration eligible guys are signing extensions now like Eloy, acuna, Albies, Snell, etc did? 

 

Plus by the time that comes the next CBA will have come and gone. Changes are coming. 

 

Alvarez 2019 ETA. Write it down folks. 

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2 hours ago, sngehl01 said:

And also, fwiw, I didn't think Tucker should be up. 

 

I think super 2 is kinda irrelevant with the way things are going. How many arbitration eligible guys are signing extensions now like Eloy, acuna, Albies, Snell, etc did? 

 

Plus by the time that comes the next CBA will have come and gone. Changes are coming. 

 

Alvarez 2019 ETA. Write it down folks. 

This comment sounds like it’s coming from someone who doesn’t know the Jon Singleton story. There’s little doubt Yordan will be up in 2019, I don’t think anyone will argue that. But it won’t be before Super 2. 

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20 minutes ago, jhonny74 said:

This comment sounds like it’s coming from someone who doesn’t know the Jon Singleton story. There’s little doubt Yordan will be up in 2019, I don’t think anyone will argue that. But it won’t be before Super 2. 

I live and breathe Houston and vividly remember Houston getting Singleton for pence. Also remember him signing his deal before ever playing a game. I didn't say he'd sign an MLB contract before call up, only that many young guys are signing them. Not sure where the condescension is coming from. 

 

I disagree about super 2. Like I said, how many young guys are signing into contracts buying out free agent years? Houston, unlike a team like Toronto, is competing and should do all they can to win all they can. Alvarez coming up will be strictly a factor of his performance/being ready and Houston's need. 

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10 minutes ago, sngehl01 said:

I live and breathe Houston and vividly remember Houston getting Singleton for pence. Also remember him signing his deal before ever playing a game. I didn't say he'd sign an MLB contract before call up, only that many young guys are signing them. Not sure where the condescension is coming from. 

 

I disagree about super 2. Like I said, how many young guys are signing into contracts buying out free agent years? Houston, unlike a team like Toronto, is competing and should do all they can to win all they can. Alvarez coming up will be strictly a factor of his performance/being ready and Houston's need. 

 

IYO, when is Alvarez in Houston?

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9 hours ago, Goatstain3 said:

IYO, when is Alvarez in Houston?

I'm not trying to dance around the question, but that's a really hard thing to nail down. 

I think Alvarez needs to have about a 35-40 game sample and keep up what he's doing. That's the middle of May. I think Houston also needs to have a clear need. 

Right now they have 2 clear + options in the OF, Brantley and Springer. 

They have all 4 IF positions "locked up" as well. I'm counting Yuli as the 1B for the sake of argument, but you can call him the DH. Whatever. He's a not a liability with the bat and shouldn't be considered a guy worthy of replacing. 

That leaves DH and 1 OF spot, typically filled by Tyler White and Reddick. Reddick has been solid enough in the past and is playing well enough now that he should continue to get consistent AB's, especially as a LH bat. 

That leaves White, who's pretty much stinking it up. How long can they sit on that? If he doesnt' show signs of life the next month, and Alvarez keeps whacking the ball, I think he'll be up. I think this is especially true if Seattle is able to get more of a lead in the division. 


So May/June. Yeah, June is the super-2 cutoff, but I don't think he'll be there until then due to financials. If there's a need, he'll be up, IMO. 

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Houston historically is a prospect hoarder franchise. Keep the talent down too long just to keep em away from big paydays or other teams. Singleton, AJ Lee, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher are examples or former top prospects who wasted away in Houston Round Rock hell. Funny enuff Kyle Tucker will prolly be the first one up since his star has fallen and his future earnings are minimal now. Yordan will be called up after he quits hitting and everybody else quits wanting him up and he no longer deserves to be called up.

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8 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

Houston historically is a prospect hoarder franchise. Keep the talent down too long just to keep em away from big paydays or other teams. Singleton, AJ Lee, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher are examples or former top prospects who wasted away in Houston Round Rock hell. Funny enuff Kyle Tucker will prolly be the first one up since his star has fallen and his future earnings are minimal now. Yordan will be called up after he quits hitting and everybody else quits wanting him up and he no longer deserves to be called up.

 

I mean when those guys did get a chance in the majors they didn't exactly light things up, so maybe it's less mismanagement and more the Astros knowing something we didn't. They've earned both the ire of fantasy managers and the benefit of the doubt when it comes to real baseball management.

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10 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

Houston historically is a prospect hoarder franchise. Keep the talent down too long just to keep em away from big paydays or other teams. Singleton, AJ Lee, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher are examples or former top prospects who wasted away in Houston Round Rock hell. Funny enuff Kyle Tucker will prolly be the first one up since his star has fallen and his future earnings are minimal now. Yordan will be called up after he quits hitting and everybody else quits wanting him up and he no longer deserves to be called up.

except that's not exactly true. springer, correa, and bregman debunk this theory.. 

i think a better statement would be that the astros call up a prospect when they (1) feel like performance has indicated a move is ready and (2) there's a clear need for playing time (i.e., an upgrade on the current roster). they're pretty deep roster-wise and a needing to call up a prospect is rare for them.

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45 minutes ago, hailfire4 said:

Houston historically is a prospect hoarder franchise. Keep the talent down too long just to keep em away from big paydays or other teams. Singleton, AJ Lee, Kyle Tucker, Derek Fisher are examples or former top prospects who wasted away in Houston Round Rock hell. Funny enuff Kyle Tucker will prolly be the first one up since his star has fallen and his future earnings are minimal now. Yordan will be called up after he quits hitting and everybody else quits wanting him up and he no longer deserves to be called up.

Man, why do people just want to push false narratives? 

Singleton has been an epic bust. He was given an MLB contract BEFORE he was ever called up. He wasn't kept down to manipuluate service time because that was not a factor for him. He had an MLB deal. Horrible comp. 

AJ Reed came out of relatively nowhere in the minors and mashed. He had ONE ++ season before he was ever called up, and was strong int he MiLB the season he did get called up. He was strong in 2015, continued to be strong in 2016 and was up. Yes, it was after 70 games, but look how much of a major bust he was. Awful in the MLB in 2016 and, guess what, he's been awful since. Earlier I posted how guys can get stunted if they get called up too early and fail. This may very well be the case with Reed. Kinda weird he was such a force in the minors, got called up, bombed, then got called dodwn and has been worse across the board. His K rate shot WAY up after 2018. His OBP went way down, and his slugging has went way down. Again, not a great comp here. AJ was 23 when he got the call, too, which isn't exactly "holding a guy down."

Derek Fisher. Really? He also got the call at age 23. He had just come off a full MiLB season of hitting .255 with 154 K in 129 games. But he's an example of how Houston holds guys down.  How good was he when he was up? K rate of 33% , .307 OBP, .356 slugging. Yeah, they were holding him back for service time. 

 

Kyle Tucker. Yeah, the Houston prospect darling the last few years. He got called up at 21 years old. Why in the world are people intimating that Houston is holding him back for service time? Again, in 2017 (his last "full" season before he was called up) he hit .274/.346/.528 in 120 games. Those are good, not great, numbers. That was also no higher than AA (where he hit .265/.325/.512 in 72 games). He was very strong in his 100 games in AAA before his call up. He came up (again, at 21) and what did he do? Not much. Now, I do think he was better than the #'s suggested (his BABIP was unsustainably low). But at the end of the day the results weren't there. He's started off abysmally in AAA to start this year. Did he get stunted by getting the call before he was ready to produce? Is it just a small sample? You somehow think it'd be better for him to be on the MLB roster right now and failing in the big leagues where you can't really figure things out, especially on a championship caliber team? 

 

What about Alex Bregman, who was the top prospect in baseball and had under 150 minor league gamaes played? Correa was up as a 20 year old. Correa had never reven played in AA the year before he was called up. He went from A+ in 14 to AA, AA, MLB in 2015. 

 

These guys you rattled off are not examples of Houston holding down its prospects to keep them away from big paydays or other teams. That's, quite literally, one of the most ridiculous things I've read on this forum. Tuckers future earnings are minimal now? This is such a ridiculous statement. 

These guys you listed are examples of playesr who came up before they were ready. Now, some guys will never be ready for the bigs, it is what it is, but bringing guys up at age 20/21/23 is NOT holding them down to keep them away from other teams or big paydays. These guys are going to hit FA before age 30, or would have if they stuck. 

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47 minutes ago, treyjuice said:

When exactly is the super 2 deadline for this guy? 

Nobody knows the date yet, but a reasonable guess is somewhere in mid June. We won't know the actual date until next year.

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^^^To be fair, Tucker got screwed upon his initial call up. He’s been slow to adjust at every level then was brought up and benched for 2-3 games at a time. Just look at the game logs, late defensive sub, pinch runner, PH, etc. I’m afraid Tucker is gonna take the Austin Meadows path where he’ll need a trade to get his head back on straight. 

 

Anyway, this is the Alvarez thread. Hope he gets a chance soon. Kid’s mashing. 

Edited by Sonny_D

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in a 12 team redraft league where we keep 9 players I added him last night.   When a guy is this hot and talented with a clear path to playing time (White is slumping) then you add now and wait for the inevitable.   with 4 bench slots, unless you are rostering all pitchers then there will be bats that sit on the bench and don't accrue states most days of the week.

 

If you love Yordan, add now, don't watch another owner stash him from under your fingertips

 

Nate Lowe is another early add to consider with this strategy.

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23 minutes ago, Fantasy_Goat said:

This all smells like Jon Singleton 2.0

I fell for this trap once already. 

AJ Reed too. Could be. He could also be good. 

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53 minutes ago, Fantasy_Goat said:

This all smells like Jon Singleton 2.0

I fell for this trap once already. 

 

Yeah there are some differences between the two. When Singleton was called up to AAA at a similar age as Alvarez his K rate jumped over 30% and the power didn't really come close to what Alvarez has shown this and last year. 

 

IMO a .275 avg 25 hr / 30 2b isn't crazy to expect with a slightly higher ceiling than that. 

Any prospect can burn you. I've got some shares in Alvarez and I'm fine waiting to see what happens. I lean towards this being the "everyone was talking about Tucker meanwhile Alvarez flew under the radar" story in the near future. 

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