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Aaron Jones 2017 Season Outlook

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On ‎2017‎-‎10‎-‎10 at 7:04 PM, Alconbury said:

 

But as he picks up more and more of the playbook, look out. It's still early, and I own both so I have no agenda here, but as bold as it might sound I am absolutely open to the possibility of AJ taking over the bigger share of this backfield as the season goes on. He looks special.

 

 

And here we are. It only took two more weeks.

 

Main reason I believe this will also hold up; on top of eye test and the vanilla stats (ypc, box score) he also got the advanced metrics on his side. Yards after contact, forced missed tackles... it's all there. In short: ability to create on his own isolated from what's blocked for him, a trait that year in year out separates the good backs from the rest.

 

ProFootballFocus highest graded RBs for weeks 1-6:

(Overall grade. Taking all three of rushing, receiving and pass-pro into account)

1. Kareem Hunt - 92.0

2. Devonta Freeman - 88.3

3. Jay Ajayi - 85.8

4. Melvin Gordon - 84.8

5. Le'Veon Bell - 84.6

6. CJ Anderson - 83.0

7. Leonard Fournette - 82.3

8. Ezekiel Elliott - 81.9

9. Aaron Jones - 81.8

10. Legarrette Blount - 80.9

 

And then on top of this, week 7 and a 87.4 overall PFF score happened. Much like Kareem Hunt, Dalvin Cook and Chris Carson oozed with upside (also among top backs in several PFF advanced metrics) and early on hinted about breakout campaigns, there's very much a similar feel to Aaron Jones right now. Advanced statistics backing up the eye test.

 

Interesting additional fact, for those who went with the narrative Packers would go with Ty Montgomery (at least for week 7) due to better pass pro ability for their inexperienced QB; Aaron Jones had the third-highest (!) pass block grade among running backs at 81.2 coming into week 7. That's actually the one thing I read that made me go ahead and pull the trigger to start him over Montgomery this week, if I'm allowed to coolstorybro some. Was the final question mark along with eventual playbook shortcomings (which became pretty much a non-problem as soon as Rodgers went down, they would obviously scale back the difficulty with Hundley anyway). He's got the receiving chops already, it's one of the things that sticks out on his college tape but is yet to have been utilized much by Packers at this point. Possibly more to come on that matter.

 

Do not drop.

 

 

 

 

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Aaron Jones is a better running back than Ty Montgomery, and if you don't agree with this, you are delusional.

 

I'm sure to most of you, this seems like an objective truth. Most.

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3 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

Wish I had a better idea of what he is ROS. Is he a volatile RB2? Is he an upside RB2? Will his ppr value improve? So many unknowns.

Good timing for their bye week, can't hurt Hundley.

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38 minutes ago, CrastersCreep said:

What do you think of his ROS outlook? 

It seems based on the last game that the packers are willing to make aj a focal point of the offense, sky's the limit imo. They should be in a fair number of shootouts with that defense, and with his skillset and his qb he might be gameflow proof

That's the most optimistic take but we should be optimistic. It's been the best possible result in 2 out of his 3 games already, and the packers have to rely on the run until Rodgers gets back

 

In summary I love Aaron Jones 

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CJ Anderson must be amazing in protecting his QB, because he hasn’t done much running or receiving lately.

 

Wait a sec, Simian has been reported black and blue after all the games lately.  Sometimes stats don’t pass the smell test.

 

I am high on A. Jones, he is the best back in GB.

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I’m a ty mont owner and I gotta say Ajones future looks more promising. He looks way better running the ball. I expect him to take a 60/40 time share. With ty mont being available for passing downs. Going forward Ajones is the back to own. Regret not picking him up. 

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

CJ Anderson must be amazing in protecting his QB, because he hasn’t done much running or receiving lately.

 

Wait a sec, Simian has been reported black and blue after all the games lately.  Sometimes stats don’t pass the smell test.

 

I am high on A. Jones, he is the best back in GB.

 

CJ actually is the top graded RB in pass pro by a good margin (87.7 pass block grade and 100% pass blocking efficiency coming into week 7 having not allowed a single pressure on 42 pass block snaps) so that is what is pushing his overall grade up, correct. I have barely watched him play this season but at least according to PFF he has been a solid runner as well (80.0 grade). The Siemian assaulters must be coming in from other directions than CJ's I suppose.

 

Back to Aaron Jones though. He is likely the focal point of that offense from now on. No better way aiding your inexperienced QB than leaning on a productive run game getting you in manageable 3rd down distances. Unless he comes out of the BYE a new player, at this stage of his career Hundley is not capable enough to have the offense run through him.

 

Also excited to see if Packers incorporate some bootleg and read-option plays, Hundley's athleticism and ability as a runner along with Jones' speed around the corner and big play potential on outside runs should be a great fit for that. Could be fruitful for both players going forward.

 

Safe RB2 with RB1 upside ROS is my take on this situation.

 

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4 hours ago, Alconbury said:

 

CJ actually is the top graded RB in pass pro by a good margin (87.7 pass block grade and 100% pass blocking efficiency coming into week 7 having not allowed a single pressure on 42 pass block snaps) so that is what is pushing his overall grade up, correct. I have barely watched him play this season but at least according to PFF he has been a solid runner as well (80.0 grade). The Siemian assaulters must be coming in from other directions than CJ's I suppose.

 

Back to Aaron Jones though. He is likely the focal point of that offense from now on. No better way aiding your inexperienced QB than leaning on a productive run game getting you in manageable 3rd down distances. Unless he comes out of the BYE a new player, at this stage of his career Hundley is not capable enough to have the offense run through him.

 

Also excited to see if Packers incorporate some bootleg and read-option plays, Hundley's athleticism and ability as a runner along with Jones' speed around the corner and big play potential on outside runs should be a great fit for that. Could be fruitful for both players going forward.

 

Safe RB2 with RB1 upside ROS is my take on this situation.

 

 

A. Jones is a safe RB2, I agree.

 

So far, he hasn’t shown RB1 in PPR.  

 

5 targets, 3 catches, 7 yards

 

I like the targets... but obviously he needs to be better to keep TY on the sidelines on 3rd downs.

 

Hundley tends to wait to long so part of this is on him.  We’ll have to wait and see, In designed plays maybe he’ll be better...

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14 minutes ago, seanismorris said:

 

A. Jones is a safe RB2, I agree.

 

So far, he hasn’t shown RB1 in PPR.  

 

5 targets, 3 catches, 7 yards

 

I like the targets... but obviously he needs to be better to keep TY on the sidelines on 3rd downs.

 

Hundley tends to wait to long so part of this is on him.  We’ll have to wait and see, In designed plays maybe he’ll be better...

 

not sure I understand. He's put up over 20 points in 2 of 3 games. He got 4 targets two weeks ago and 5 this past week, how aren't those RB1 weeks?

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I find it extremely hard to see how a Packers offense led by Hundley can support anywhere close to a RB1, especially when TY will continue to be in on passing downs more as he heals and the season progresses.  He seems like a solid sell-high if you can get another RB2 that has less question marks, but I guess there aren't many of those left.

Edited by ap0calypse

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21 minutes ago, ap0calypse said:

I find it extremely hard to see how a Packers offense led by Hundley can support anywhere close to a RB1

 

It's actually very easy to see because they already showed us how, watch the Packers Saints game.

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4 minutes ago, furbz420 said:

 

It's actually very easy to see because they already showed us how, watch the Packers Saints game.

Nice sample size!  It even includes a 46 yd TD run.  Enjoy repeating 100yd+ rushing performances with the negative game scripts the Packers will face rest of season.  Don't even worry about the fact that Hundley only put up 87 passing yards with one of the best offensive supporting casts in the NFL vs the Saints, or that Hundley and TY will vulture the rare RZ rushing opportunities. 

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Just now, ap0calypse said:

Nice sample size!  It even includes a 46 yd TD run.  Enjoy repeating 100yd+ rushing performances with the negative game scripts the Packers will face rest of season.  Don't even worry about the fact that Hundley only put up 87 passing yards with one of the best offensive supporting casts in the NFL vs the Saints, or that Hundley and TY will vulture the rare RZ rushing opportunities. 

Down boy, seems like we have a salty ty owner here. I own ty as well but I was smart enough to pick up jones when ty broke his ribs, why didn’t you do the same??

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3 minutes ago, CDotSug said:

Down boy, seems like we have a salty ty owner here. I own ty as well but I was smart enough to pick up jones when ty broke his ribs, why didn’t you do the same??

I'm defending a point that he is a sell-high, and I don't see a world where he is anything more than a mid RB2 this year.  Why does it matter who I own?  Why don't you argue points made instead of attacking me? He was an amazing FA pick-up, and I was on him when people were on Jamaal Williams.

Edited by ap0calypse

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Sell high infers he won't perform well again.  In my assessment he's a RB2 with RB1 upside.  Those are hard to find, so yes sell for a top 10 WR, or Gronk, otherwise he's a hold for me.

Edited by Red Dog

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9 minutes ago, Red Dog said:

Sell high infers he won't perform well again.  In my assessment he's a RB2 with RB1 upside.  Those are hard to find, so yes sell for a top 10 WR, or Gronk, otherwise he's a hold for me.

 

This.  I am kicking myself for dropping him the same week I picked him up because I thought Ty was going to play through his rib injury.  And I didn't believe he was that good.  I was wrong and now I'm trying to trade for him.  He definitely passes the eye test and I believe is a better RB than Ty at this point.  I could see him continue to run away with the starting job and win it outright next season.  So, in my keeper league he has a lot more value than in a re-draft league IMO.

 

Also, why do people, when trying to ague against a player's performance, discredit the fact that they gain a lot of those yards on specific plays?  That doesn't make sense to me.  Yes, he had a 46 yd TD run and that accounted for a good chunk of his yardage.  But he also had a 46 yd TD run!  I could see arguing if he had a 75 yd TD run and then ended the day with 90 yds.  Sure, it makes some sense there but still.  

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2 hours ago, seanismorris said:

 

A. Jones is a safe RB2, I agree.

 

So far, he hasn’t shown RB1 in PPR.  

 

5 targets, 3 catches, 7 yards

 

I like the targets... but obviously he needs to be better to keep TY on the sidelines on 3rd downs.

 

Hundley tends to wait to long so part of this is on him.  We’ll have to wait and see, In designed plays maybe he’ll be better...

 

1 hour ago, ap0calypse said:

I find it extremely hard to see how a Packers offense led by Hundley can support anywhere close to a RB1, especially when TY will continue to be in on passing downs more as he heals and the season progresses.  He seems like a solid sell-high if you can get another RB2 that has less question marks, but I guess there aren't many of those left.

 

I was talking Standard scoring, but I absolutely wouldn't rule out PPR RB1 upside either, even if the chance obviously is bigger in Standard with Ty around. But I mean, 80% snaps vs Montgomery's 13% last week with him another week healthier than when they had a 65% vs 30% split in week 6. It's trending in the wrong direction for Ty Montgomery when it should be the opposite with the health narrative and I really wouldn't bank on him carving out this big 3rd down role everyone is talking about to be honest.

 

In week 7, Aaron Jones climbed from PFF's third to second highest graded running back in pass protection for the entire NFL:

 

 

If it's mainly QB protection the Packers want from their RB on 3rd down, Aaron Jones seems to be the answer.

 

If it's receiving? It's obviously Montgomery's strength but all I'm saying is don't sleep on Jones here even if it hasn't shown up in box scores yet. His receiving skills were as good as any running back in this draft class and yes, that's in competition with Cook, Hunt, McCaffrey and Kamara. Shows up all through his college tape. Some examples in the video below if you haven't watched it before, receptions at

 

0:19

1:23
1:53
2:23
2:30
4:39
5:09

 

 

Edited by Alconbury

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Soooo.... where are all those people saying that this was nothing like the Langford/Howard situation last year? This guy is probably a league winner for some people. He looks so good out there, IDK how people still think Ty is getting his job back barring injury.

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56 minutes ago, ap0calypse said:

Nice sample size!  It even includes a 46 yd TD run.  Enjoy repeating 100yd+ rushing performances with the negative game scripts the Packers will face rest of season.  Don't even worry about the fact that Hundley only put up 87 passing yards with one of the best offensive supporting casts in the NFL vs the Saints, or that Hundley and TY will vulture the rare RZ rushing opportunities. 

 

A 46 yard TD? Musta been a nice run!

 

Ah damn, I see your point though, take away that long play and he went 16 for 85, a measly 5.3 ypc. 

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30 minutes ago, Alconbury said:

 

 

 

Great video. I expected him to look awesome running the ball but I was surprised with the catching as well. Bye bye TY. 

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