DocJ

2017 Rotoworld Mock Real League

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1.10 Jay Ajayi

 

I love Ajayi, have since he declared for the draft, but didn't want him here, and I'm not entirely sure I believe he even deserves to be drafted here.  Why then did I draft him here?  Strategy combined with the flawed nature of a snake draft.

 

When I got my draft position, I pulled up the draft board, and right away it became blatantly obvious to me that the 10th spot was going to be rough for RB options in many of the rounds.  As many know, I subscribe to drafting 15-1, bottom up, upside down, whatever the f*** you want to call it.  The very basic logic behind this, is that the players you decide between in the 1st and 2nd rounds, are much closer talent/situation wise than the players you decide between in the 5/6, 9/10 range or beyond.  So with that in mind, I take a look at the board, kind of layout my 'target' players for each round, starting from the bottom, and working my way up to the 3rd round.  I won't get all of my targets, but sometimes it's kind of easy to see who you're most likely to land, or even just knowing which positions you're most likely to end up with in each round.

 

Draft1.png

 

So as I work my way up, I noticed a trend very quickly...  Either I'm going to have to make some big reaches from the left side of the board to get RBs I like, or I have to rely on some unrealistic falls down the board for them to make it back to me.  I don't want to do the former, and I don't want to depend, or have my team hinge, on the latter.  The higher I worked my way up, the more I start to realize... I hate all of the RBs going in the back half of this years draft in the mid/late rounds, so I better get one early, or I'm going to A: Hate my RB core or B: Not have a RB core.  In a 14 team league, with highly active forum players, who scour the WW, and make pickups before Rotoworld even breaks the news, blow their FAAB, and roster every backup RB in the league, combined with the ability to start up to 4 RBs a week, you simply can't survive if you don't draft some depth at the position, or at least get lucky avoiding injuries.

 

That left me with no real choice but to overdraft a RB in the 1st round, knowing that I'm highly unlikely to land more than 1-2 RBs I like in rounds 3-10 of this draft.  It's nice to have a draft plan, or strategy in mind, but in snakes, sometimes your hand is forced.  I sure as hell don't want to have to depend on Doug Martin and Paul Perkins as my top 2 RBs, nor do I want to hope Rob Kelly falls to me in the 7th.  Those are just not statements that instill confidence.  The strategy is really rather simple.  Take a RB now whose talent I believe in, coming off a historic season, with a clear path to workload... or roll the dice on the trash I'll have to choose from at the 10 spot over the next few days.

 

I have them ranked Bell, DJ, Zeke(pre-suspension), Freeman, McCoy, Ajayi, and Murray based on the little research I did last night, trying to prep my list for IronCock.  I would have been really happy with Freeman at the 10 spot, but it obviously didn't happen.  Deciding between Ajayi and Murray was actually a coin flip.  Ajayi has the clearer path to workload, less competition for touches, and despite all this BS about his knee, no real injury history to speak of.  While Murray has stayed healthy of late, he is a bit older, with way more carries on his legs, and the past injuries still in the back of my head.  Whereas Ajayi, lit the league on fire his last year of college, it wasn't until the 'night of the draft' that those stupid claims about his knee being bone on bone came out.  I've asked this question before, was his knee bone on bone his final year of college when he rushed for 1,823 yards, had 50 receptions for 535 yards, and totaled 32, count them thirty-two, touchdowns?  Was his knee bone to bone last year when he rushed for nearly 1,300 yards in the NFL behind a banged up Oline in just 12 starts?  If/when he ever has a knee issue, then I'll worry about it.  Until then, I think it was just slander that someone released to drop him out of the 1st round where he belonged... belang... belung... wtf is the past tense of belong?  Had Ajayi been gone, I would have went with Murray.  Had Murray been gone, I would have abandoned the forced positional standard, and drafted Evans or Green, in that order.

 

As far as Ajayi himself, I don't think calling him a bust is a bold call, regression is a reasonable assumption.  After showing us/his coaches nothing for 2 seasons, and despite their best efforts to not let him be the lead back of this team, he came out of nowhere to have a seemingly fluke fantasy season.  P05 is right, 200 games aren't repeatable, 2 of which came against the same s---y defense, that inflated his stat line, like Dougie a la 2012 (I think?), he can't have that many long runs again, blah blah blah.  I get it, you're not wrong.  On the other hand though, as I've gone over extensively in the Ajayi thread, and the same way I analyzed/justified my D.Freeman pick last year... even when I put them at every statistical disadvantage possible.. his numbers still project out to a rock solid stat line by years end.  He didn't rely on TDs, or catches, both I think should go up this season which will alleviate the potential of his rushing going down, but again, if he repeats his 12 game totals, over 16 games, it's still a good year.  Even if you remove the 200 games, remove the long runs, he was still pacing RB1 stat lines, and that was with Tannehill's worst season, and a banged up oline.  Barring a complete collapse of the offense, the oline, or a complete whiff on Ajayis talent by me, I just don't think he can fail 'too hard'.  He can still be a bust at the price I paid here, but not cripple my fantasy team.  His upside is #1 back in the game though, even though I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Does 150-1 (One Fifty One) have a nicer ring to it for a strategy name? 10 team standard, 15 rounds... 150 picks, starting from the last pick, to the first...  BRB trademark copyright patent pending!

 

I'll get Tech9 to do a promo for me, "151, Malibu Rum, and Pineapple Juice!"

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24 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

1.10 Jay Ajayi

 

I love Ajayi, have since he declared for the draft, but didn't want him here, and I'm not entirely sure I believe he even deserves to be drafted here.  Why then did I draft him here?  Strategy combined with the flawed nature of a snake draft.

 

When I got my draft position, I pulled up the draft board, and right away it became blatantly obvious to me that the 10th spot was going to be rough for RB options in many of the rounds.  As many know, I subscribe to drafting 15-1, bottom up, upside down, whatever the f*** you want to call it.  The very basic logic behind this, is that the players you decide between in the 1st and 2nd rounds, are much closer talent/situation wise than the players you decide between in the 5/6, 9/10 range or beyond.  So with that in mind, I take a look at the board, kind of layout my 'target' players for each round, starting from the bottom, and working my way up to the 3rd round.  I won't get all of my targets, but sometimes it's kind of easy to see who you're most likely to land, or even just knowing which positions you're most likely to end up with in each round.

 

Draft1.png

 

So as I work my way up, I noticed a trend very quickly...  Either I'm going to have to make some big reaches from the left side of the board to get RBs I like, or I have to rely on some unrealistic falls down the board for them to make it back to me.  I don't want to do the former, and I don't want to depend, or have my team hinge, on the latter.  The higher I worked my way up, the more I start to realize... I hate all of the RBs going in the back half of this years draft in the mid/late rounds, so I better get one early, or I'm going to A: Hate my RB core or B: Not have a RB core.  In a 14 team league, with highly active forum players, who scour the WW, and make pickups before Rotoworld even breaks the news, blow their FAAB, and roster every backup RB in the league, combined with the ability to start up to 4 RBs a week, you simply can't survive if you don't draft some depth at the position, or at least get lucky avoiding injuries.

 

That left me with no real choice but to overdraft a RB in the 1st round, knowing that I'm highly unlikely to land more than 1-2 RBs I like in rounds 3-10 of this draft.  It's nice to have a draft plan, or strategy in mind, but in snakes, sometimes your hand is forced.  I sure as hell don't want to have to depend on Doug Martin and Paul Perkins as my top 2 RBs, nor do I want to hope Rob Kelly falls to me in the 7th.  Those are just not statements that instill confidence.  The strategy is really rather simple.  Take a RB now whose talent I believe in, coming off a historic season, with a clear path to workload... or roll the dice on the trash I'll have to choose from at the 10 spot over the next few days.

 

I have them ranked Bell, DJ, Zeke(pre-suspension), Freeman, McCoy, Ajayi, and Murray based on the little research I did last night, trying to prep my list for IronCock.  I would have been really happy with Freeman at the 10 spot, but it obviously didn't happen.  Deciding between Ajayi and Murray was actually a coin flip.  Ajayi has the clearer path to workload, less competition for touches, and despite all this BS about his knee, no real injury history to speak of.  While Murray has stayed healthy of late, he is a bit older, with way more carries on his legs, and the past injuries still in the back of my head.  Whereas Ajayi, lit the league on fire his last year of college, it wasn't until the 'night of the draft' that those stupid claims about his knee being bone on bone came out.  I've asked this question before, was his knee bone on bone his final year of college when he rushed for 1,823 yards, had 50 receptions for 535 yards, and totaled 32, count them thirty-two, touchdowns?  Was his knee bone to bone last year when he rushed for nearly 1,300 yards in the NFL behind a banged up Oline in just 12 starts?  If/when he ever has a knee issue, then I'll worry about it.  Until then, I think it was just slander that someone released to drop him out of the 1st round where he belonged... belang... belung... wtf is the past tense of belong?  Had Ajayi been gone, I would have went with Murray.  Had Murray been gone, I would have abandoned the forced positional standard, and drafted Evans or Green, in that order.

 

As far as Ajayi himself, I don't think calling him a bust is a bold call, regression is a reasonable assumption.  After showing us/his coaches nothing for 2 seasons, and despite their best efforts to not let him be the lead back of this team, he came out of nowhere to have a seemingly fluke fantasy season.  P05 is right, 200 games aren't repeatable, 2 of which came against the same s---y defense, that inflated his stat line, like Dougie a la 2012 (I think?), he can't have that many long runs again, blah blah blah.  I get it, you're not wrong.  On the other hand though, as I've gone over extensively in the Ajayi thread, and the same way I analyzed/justified my D.Freeman pick last year... even when I put them at every statistical disadvantage possible.. his numbers still project out to a rock solid stat line by years end.  He didn't rely on TDs, or catches, both I think should go up this season which will alleviate the potential of his rushing going down, but again, if he repeats his 12 game totals, over 16 games, it's still a good year.  Even if you remove the 200 games, remove the long runs, he was still pacing RB1 stat lines, and that was with Tannehill's worst season, and a banged up oline.  Barring a complete collapse of the offense, the oline, or a complete whiff on Ajayis talent by me, I just don't think he can fail 'too hard'.  He can still be a bust at the price I paid here, but not cripple my fantasy team.  His upside is #1 back in the game though, even though I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Does 150-1 (One Fifty One) have a nicer ring to it for a strategy name? 10 team standard, 15 rounds... 150 picks, starting from the last pick, to the first...  BRB trademark copyright patent pending!

 

I'll get Tech9 to do a promo for me, "151, Malibu Rum, and Pineapple Juice!"

 

Your posts are long enough, we don't need the unnecessary pauses!

 

f59.jpg

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Geez FFC  it's like you have an awesome blog or something  ?

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1.11 AJ Green

I picked him to keep the draft moving.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, it's the floor. As reliable as it gets, health pending.

In a 14 teamer there is little room for risk in the earliest rounds in my opinion. There are 3 players I might've considered instead, and for various reasons they just don't strike me as sturdy as Green going into '17.

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Hey I just realized something: I have won every single league that I played in more than one season.

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This is brutal.

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32 minutes ago, DocJ said:

Hey I just realized something: I have won every single league that I played in more than one season.

 

Cool story, bro... B)

 

Edited by Winky

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Just now, ToO_BaD said:

This is brutal.

 

We could've gone through 5 rounds at least for now if not for dislimb..... it would be nice to give us a head's up like hey guys, I may not be able to get onto the forums all day... 

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Just now, boltup15 said:

 

We could've gone through 5 rounds at least for now if not for dislimb..... it would be nice to give us a head's up like hey guys, I may not be able to get onto the forums all day... 

5 rounds is a little ambitious given the time differences, but 2-2.5 wouldn't have been totally out of the question given how quickly it started.

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Can we just autopick him to AP or something?

Edited by boltup15

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Just now, PackersFan1979 said:

Why not put a time limit on the picks? 4 hours until you time out, after which we use ADP from fantasypros.

 

Well what about during the night?

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I really wanted to be into round 4 by this time tomorrow ?

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2 minutes ago, PackersFan1979 said:

Why not put a time limit on the picks? 4 hours until you time out, after which we use ADP from fantasypros.

 

Thats a great idea but those are the kind of things we need to decide before we start drafting.

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2 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

Well what about during the night?

 

Turn it off between 10pm and 7am EST or CST

 

Im in Australia, so Im pretty much phucked either way. Its why Ill be getting picks in to a few guys online to keep things moving if I wont be around.

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Just now, DocJ said:

 

Thats a great idea but those are the kind of things we need to decide before we start drafting.

 

Does anyone have an email address for Dislimb?

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Just now, PackersFan1979 said:

 

Does anyone have an email address for Dislimb?

 

We're going to need more than just his e-mail address.

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45 minutes ago, Proteus said:

1.11 AJ Green

I picked him to keep the draft moving.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

No, it's the floor. As reliable as it gets, health pending.

In a 14 teamer there is little room for risk in the earliest rounds in my opinion. There are 3 players I might've considered instead, and for various reasons they just don't strike me as sturdy as Green going into '17.

It could have been worse... Thanks for picking for me homie. 

 

You said you would be good until when? Or do you even want to draft? 

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2 minutes ago, PackersFan1979 said:

 

Does anyone have an email address for Dislimb?

I believe someone emailed the address listed on our league page.

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Are guys comfortable exchanging phone numbers? Worst case scenario, just to keep things going. I highly doubt any of you guys are shady tele-marketer types.

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2 minutes ago, predator_05 said:

Are guys comfortable exchanging phone numbers? Worst case scenario, just to keep things going. I highly doubt any of you guys are shady tele-marketer types.

 

If anyone is looking for life insurance pls let me know. I also sell vacuum cleaners on the weekends. And Herbal Life after ours.

 

What about setting up a GroupMe group? Most of my leagues have one these days and its easier to get hold of people when you need to

Edited by PackersFan1979

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1 minute ago, predator_05 said:

Are guys comfortable exchanging phone numbers? Worst case scenario, just to keep things going. I highly doubt any of you guys are shady tele-marketer types.

I don't consider myself a telemarketer as much someone trying to give you an amazing offer that could potentially change your life.  It's YOUR loss if you don't take my call.

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