DocJ

2017 Rotoworld Mock Real League

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5 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Go watch some superbowl highlights you spoiled brat.  ?

 

Too early for porn.

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10 hours ago, ZidaneValor said:

 

I will if it's close to my turn.  I usually end up doing that anyway.

 

He didn't give anyone his picks... even though he already said he'd be gone from 5 ET to 10 ET... dudeeeee

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28 minutes ago, boltup15 said:

 

He didn't give anyone his picks... even though he already said he'd be gone from 5 ET to 10 ET... dudeeeee

Not to mention the last pick was made at 3 ET....

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10 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said:

Not to mention the last pick was made at 3 ET....

 

giphy.gif

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2.04 Lamar Miller

 

The same logic I used for Jay Ajayi applies to Lamar Miller.  He was not the highest ranked player on my board, but he plays the position I know I needed to come away with in the 2nd round.  We always tell people not to lock onto doing <pos> <pos> in the first rounds, and while it's an easy rule of thumb for the casual players, I actually don't really agree with it from a strategic point of view.  If you read the last post, this is just a simple breakdown and realization of what's most likely to happen for the next 6-8 rounds, and which players will or won't realistically be available for me to pick at my draft position.  It's very simple for me to see and understand, if I didn't come out of the first 2 rounds with 2 RBs, I was going to hate my RB core, and severely lack in depth and confidence in that position.

 

Lamar Miller may be a slight reach to some at 19th overall, but ultimately he was never going to make it back to me in round 3, so it's now or never.  He was the highest ranked RB on my board, and I have no issue paying this price for him, even if not optimal.  If a player won't be available at your next pick, you shouldn't ever concern yourself with making sure you get them.  By week 1, no one cares what round you drafted someone or what price you paid to get them, all that matters are the points they score for your team.

 

In regards to Miller himself, I can just copy/paste really...

 

I won't argue that Miller doesn't strike me as a stud, or season winning RB, but you clearly haven't taken a look at the landscape if you think there are 4 rounds worth of studs in 2017.  Miller, on arguably the worst offense in the league, with a garbage QB, stacked boxes, failing WR, first year on the team, new offense, and being utilized in the wrong way for his skillset... was on pace for 1,229 rushing yards.  A number only 7 RBs would have exceeded in 2016, and a number that only 3 would have exceeded in 2015.  He was a top 10 back 2 years in a row leading into 2016.  By my quick math (grain of salt) I only see 5 RBs who have more fantasy points over the past 3 years than Miller's 655.  D.Murray with 840, L.Bell with 798, M.Forte with 745, L.McCoy with 684, and D.Freeman with 695. 7th would be Ingram with 638, followed by DJ at 8th in 2 years has managed 622.

 

While you may be chasing 'true studs' some people are avoiding 'true duds' in those same rounds.  How many 'true studs' with 1300-1500/11 to 12 TD type season potential, absolutely destroyed people's seasons last year?  A.Rob? Hop? Gurley? AP? Any of these '1600/15' studs ring a bell?  Yes, ceilings are fun in theory, but completely dismissing players because of their 'reliably consistency' can be just as detrimental to your fantasy season.

 

Lamar Miller had a disastrous year in 2016, along with his sorry excuse for an offense.  He went 0/318 on multiple broken tackles... and still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards on just 14 games.  He was 9th in rushing yards per game with 76.64.  David Johnson is a top 2 pick, and had 77.44 per game.  Melvin Gordon is the 5th RB off the board, who averaged 76.69.  While DJ has massive receiving advantage to both, Gordon had only 10 more catches than Miller.  Personally, I just don't see how Miller can possibly be worse than he was last year, in which despite an atrocious season, he still managed over 1,000 yards.  A feat only 11 other RBs managed in 2016, and only 7 achieved in 2015.  He just had his career lowest YPC at 4.0, worst TD rate since becoming a starter, a bottom 3 offense, got injured, missed games... and still finished as a rock solid RB2, albeit disappointing given his price last year.  Even if he repeats his 2016 season pace, nothing gets better for that QB/WR/Offense/Team, but he plays 16 games, he would go 306/1226/6 for ~220 fantasy points in PPR, ranking him 11th.

 

Yeah, Miller has proven he can't handle a large volume.  So as long as we ignore the fact that Gordon got injured on less carries, missed more games than Miller, and has never played a full season... then I guess you would have a point.  But I can't ignore those things.

 

Miller had more yards and a better YPC rate, on an incredibly worse offense, and line, than Gordon.

Gordon was absolute trash his rookie year, and was below average last year.  He's dependent on a heavy workload and TDs.

The only reason Gordon even got the targets he did last year, was by default because Woodhead got injured, and SD had no choice.

Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon ranked 29th in catch rate.

Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon had the 10th highest TD percentage dependency, with 28% of his production coming purely from TDs.

For reference Le'Veon Bell was the 8th lowest dependent on TDs, with only 17% of his fantasy production coming purely from TDs.

L.Miller comes in at only 19% while Blount was the worst in the league, having 46% of his fantasy production come from TDs.

DJ and Zeke both sit at 29%, L.Murray 34%.

 

TDs are the most unpredictable stat in the game, the less dependent a back is on TDs for fantasy production, usually the safer they are.

Granted there are exceptions to the rule, where if goal line plunges are someone's specialty, and the teams statistical tendency, then you have to factor that in.

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34 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

2.04 Lamar Miller

 

The same logic I used for Jay Ajayi applies to Lamar Miller.  He was not the highest ranked player on my board, but he plays the position I know I needed to come away with in the 2nd round.  We always tell people not to lock onto doing <pos> <pos> in the first rounds, and while it's an easy rule of thumb for the casual players, I actually don't really agree with it from a strategic point of view.  If you read the last post, this is just a simple breakdown and realization of what's most likely to happen for the next 6-8 rounds, and which players will or won't realistically be available for me to pick at my draft position.  It's very simple for me to see and understand, if I didn't come out of the first 2 rounds with 2 RBs, I was going to hate my RB core, and severely lack in depth and confidence in that position.

 

Lamar Miller may be a slight reach to some at 19th overall, but ultimately he was never going to make it back to me in round 3, so it's now or never.  He was the highest ranked RB on my board, and I have no issue paying this price for him, even if not optimal.  If a player won't be available at your next pick, you shouldn't ever concern yourself with making sure you get them.  By week 1, no one cares what round you drafted someone or what price you paid to get them, all that matters are the points they score for your team.

 

In regards to Miller himself, I can just copy/paste really...

 

I won't argue that Miller doesn't strike me as a stud, or season winning RB, but you clearly haven't taken a look at the landscape if you think there are 4 rounds worth of studs in 2017.  Miller, on arguably the worst offense in the league, with a garbage QB, stacked boxes, failing WR, first year on the team, new offense, and being utilized in the wrong way for his skillset... was on pace for 1,229 rushing yards.  A number only 7 RBs would have exceeded in 2016, and a number that only 3 would have exceeded in 2015.  He was a top 10 back 2 years in a row leading into 2016.  By my quick math (grain of salt) I only see 5 RBs who have more fantasy points over the past 3 years than Miller's 655.  D.Murray with 840, L.Bell with 798, M.Forte with 745, L.McCoy with 684, and D.Freeman with 695. 7th would be Ingram with 638, followed by DJ at 8th in 2 years has managed 622.

 

While you may be chasing 'true studs' some people are avoiding 'true duds' in those same rounds.  How many 'true studs' with 1300-1500/11 to 12 TD type season potential, absolutely destroyed people's seasons last year?  A.Rob? Hop? Gurley? AP? Any of these '1600/15' studs ring a bell?  Yes, ceilings are fun in theory, but completely dismissing players because of their 'reliably consistency' can be just as detrimental to your fantasy season.

 

Lamar Miller had a disastrous year in 2016, along with his sorry excuse for an offense.  He went 0/318 on multiple broken tackles... and still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards on just 14 games.  He was 9th in rushing yards per game with 76.64.  David Johnson is a top 2 pick, and had 77.44 per game.  Melvin Gordon is the 5th RB off the board, who averaged 76.69.  While DJ has massive receiving advantage to both, Gordon had only 10 more catches than Miller.  Personally, I just don't see how Miller can possibly be worse than he was last year, in which despite an atrocious season, he still managed over 1,000 yards.  A feat only 11 other RBs managed in 2016, and only 7 achieved in 2015.  He just had his career lowest YPC at 4.0, worst TD rate since becoming a starter, a bottom 3 offense, got injured, missed games... and still finished as a rock solid RB2, albeit disappointing given his price last year.  Even if he repeats his 2016 season pace, nothing gets better for that QB/WR/Offense/Team, but he plays 16 games, he would go 306/1226/6 for ~220 fantasy points in PPR, ranking him 11th.

 

Yeah, Miller has proven he can't handle a large volume.  So as long as we ignore the fact that Gordon got injured on less carries, missed more games than Miller, and has never played a full season... then I guess you would have a point.  But I can't ignore those things.

 

Miller had more yards and a better YPC rate, on an incredibly worse offense, and line, than Gordon.

Gordon was absolute trash his rookie year, and was below average last year.  He's dependent on a heavy workload and TDs.

The only reason Gordon even got the targets he did last year, was by default because Woodhead got injured, and SD had no choice.

Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon ranked 29th in catch rate.

Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon had the 10th highest TD percentage dependency, with 28% of his production coming purely from TDs.

For reference Le'Veon Bell was the 8th lowest dependent on TDs, with only 17% of his fantasy production coming purely from TDs.

L.Miller comes in at only 19% while Blount was the worst in the league, having 46% of his fantasy production come from TDs.

DJ and Zeke both sit at 29%, L.Murray 34%.

 

TDs are the most unpredictable stat in the game, the less dependent a back is on TDs for fantasy production, usually the safer they are.

Granted there are exceptions to the rule, where if goal line plunges are someone's specialty, and the teams statistical tendency, then you have to factor that in.

This will be hard not to take as an insult... But I'm beginning to think you are Robrain or at least a clone. 

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I'm not sure how much stock I put into that TD dependency when talking about top RBs.  When you're talking about someone like LenDale White, then sure maybe.  

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12 minutes ago, Ryan81 said:

This will be hard not to take as an insult... But I'm beginning to think you are Robrain or at least a clone. 

Except smart

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@FFCollusion

Great analysis, but doesn't a lot of that Miller assessment begin to feel like a reason why he might just flat out lose his job, or at least lose a lot of his touches?

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9 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said:

I've read through TWO posts by @FFCollusion since I last picked. God, this draft is dragging a**.

 

You think that's bad?  I've been looking for hidden messages:

 

============Odd Words

2.04  Miller  same  I  for  Ajayi  to  Miller.  was  the  ranked  on  board,  he  the  I  I  to  away  in  2nd  We  tell  not  lock  doing  <pos>  the  rounds,  while  an  rule  thumb  the  players,  actually  really  with  from  strategic  of  If  read  last  this  just  simple  and  of  most  to  for  next  rounds,  which  will  won't  be  for  to  at  draft  It's  simple  me  see  understand,  I  come  of  first  rounds  2  I  going  hate  RB  and  lack  depth  confidence  that  Lamar  may  a  reach  some  19th  but  he  never  to  it  to  in  3,  it's  or  He  the  ranked  on  board,  I  no  paying  price  him,  if  optimal.  a  won't  available  your  pick,  shouldn't  concern  with  sure  get  By  1,  one  what  you  someone  what  you  to  them,  that  are  points  score  your  In  to  himself,  can  copy/paste  I  argue  Miller  strike  as  stud,  season  RB,  you  haven't  a  at  landscape  you  there  4  worth  studs  2017.  on  the  offense  the  with  garbage  stacked  failing  first  on  team,  offense,  being  in  wrong  for  skillset...  on  for  rushing  A  only  RBs  have  in  and  number  only  would  exceeded  2015.  was  top  back  years  a  leading  2016.  my  math  of  I  see  RBs  have  fantasy  over  past  years  Miller's  D.Murray  840,  with  M.Forte  745,  with  and  with  7th  be  with  followed  DJ  8th  2  has  622.  you  be  'true  some  are  'true  in  same  How  'true  with  to  TD  season  absolutely  people's  last  A.Rob?  Gurley?  Any  these  studs  a  Yes,  are  in  but  dismissing  because  their  consistency'  be  as  to  fantasy  Lamar  had  disastrous  in  along  his  excuse  an  He  0/318  multiple  tackles...  still  to  for  1,000  on  14  He  9th  rushing  per  with  David  is  top  pick,  had  per  Melvin  is  5th  off  board,  averaged  While  has  receiving  to  Gordon  only  more  than  Personally,  just  see  Miller  possibly  worse  he  last  in  despite  atrocious  he  managed  1,000  A  only  other  managed  2016,  only  achieved  2015.  just  his  lowest  at  worst  rate  becoming  starter,  bottom  offense,  injured,  games...  still  as  rock  RB2,  disappointing  his  last  Even  he  his  season  nothing  better  that  but  plays  games,  would  306/1226/6  ~220  points  PPR,  him  Yeah,  has  he  handle  large  So  long  we  the  that  got  on  carries,  more  than  and  never  a  season...  I  you  have  point.  I  ignore  things.  had  yards  a  YPC  on  incredibly  offense,  line,  Gordon.  was  trash  rookie  and  below  last  He's  on  heavy  and  The  reason  even  the  he  last  was  default  Woodhead  injured,  SD  no  Of  top  RBs,  Gordon  29th  catch  Of  top  RBs,  Gordon  the  highest  percentage  with  of  production  purely  TDs.  reference  Bell  the  lowest  on  with  17%  his  production  purely  TDs.  comes  at  19%  Blount  the  in  league,  46%  his  production  from  DJ  Zeke  sit  29%,  34%.  are  most  stat  the  the  dependent  back  on  for  production,  the  they  Granted  are  to  rule,  if  line  are  specialty,  the  statistical  then  have  factor  in. 

 

============Even Words

 Lamar  The  logic  used  Jay  applies  Lamar  He  not  highest  player  my  but  plays  position  know  needed  come  with  the  round.  always  people  to  onto  <pos>  in  first  and  it's  easy  of  for  casual  I  don't  agree  it  a  point  view.  you  the  post,  is  a  breakdown  realization  what's  likely  happen  the  6-8  and  players  or  realistically  available  me  pick  my  position.  very  for  to  and  if  didn't  out  the  2  with  RBs,  was  to  my  core,  severely  in  and  in  position.  Miller  be  slight  to  at  overall,  ultimately  was  going  make  back  me  round  so  now  never.  was  highest  RB  my  and  have  issue  this  for  even  not  If  player  be  at  next  you  ever  yourself  making  you  them.  week  no  cares  round  drafted  or  price  paid  get  all  matters  the  they  for  team.  regards  Miller  I  just  really...  won't  that  doesn't  me  a  or  winning  but  clearly  taken  look  the  if  think  are  rounds  of  in  Miller,  arguably  worst  in  league,  a  QB,  boxes,  WR,  year  the  new  and  utilized  the  way  his  was  pace  1,229  yards.  number  7  would  exceeded  2016,  a  that  3  have  in  He  a  10  2  in  row  into  By  quick  (grain  salt)  only  5  who  more  points  the  3  than  655.  with  L.Bell  798,  with  L.McCoy  684,  D.Freeman  695.  would  Ingram  638,  by  at  in  years  managed  While  may  chasing  studs'  people  avoiding  duds'  those  rounds.  many  studs'  1300-1500/11  12  type  potential,  destroyed  seasons  year?  Hop?  AP?  of  '1600/15'  ring  bell?  ceilings  fun  theory,  completely  players  of  'reliably  can  just  detrimental  your  season.  Miller  a  year  2016,  with  sorry  for  offense.  went  on  broken  and  managed  rush  over  yards  just  games.  was  in  yards  game  76.64.  Johnson  a  2  and  77.44  game.  Gordon  the  RB  the  who  76.69.  DJ  massive  advantage  both,  had  10  catches  Miller.  I  don't  how  can  be  than  was  year,  which  an  season,  still  over  yards.  feat  11  RBs  in  and  7  in  He  had  career  YPC  4.0,  TD  since  a  a  3  got  missed  and  finished  a  solid  albeit  given  price  year.  if  repeats  2016  pace,  gets  for  QB/WR/Offense/Team,  he  16  he  go  for  fantasy  in  ranking  11th.  Miller  proven  can't  a  volume.  as  as  ignore  fact  Gordon  injured  less  missed  games  Miller,  has  played  full  then  guess  would  a  But  can't  those  Miller  more  and  better  rate,  an  worse  and  than  Gordon  absolute  his  year,  was  average  year.  dependent  a  workload  TDs.  only  Gordon  got  targets  did  year,  by  because  got  and  had  choice.  the  36  Melvin  ranked  in  rate.  the  36  Melvin  had  10th  TD  dependency,  28%  his  coming  from  For  Le'Veon  was  8th  dependent  TDs,  only  of  fantasy  coming  from  L.Miller  in  only  while  was  worst  the  having  of  fantasy  come  TDs.  and  both  at  L.Murray  TDs  the  unpredictable  in  game,  less  a  is  TDs  fantasy  usually  safer  are.  there  exceptions  the  where  goal  plunges  someone's  and  teams  tendency,  you  to  that

 

============Every 10th Character (FFC finished 10th last season, so I figured it was a clue)

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============Every 10th Word

2.04 Ajayi ranked I 2nd doing an actually of just to will at see first hate confidence reach never 3, ranked paying a shouldn't By someone that In I stud, a 4 the stacked offense, skillset... only number was leading I over 840, and followed 622. are 'true absolutely Any are their fantasy along 0/318 for 9th is Melvin averaged Gordon just he he other 2015. worst offense, rock Even better would him large that than I ignore YPC Gordon. below and he injured, RBs, top percentage TDs. on purely Blount his sit stat on Granted line then 

 

============Fibonacci Words

2.04 Lamar Miller same used to ranked needed the this with concern exceeded I 

 

============Fibonacci Characters

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3 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

============Even Words

 Lamar  The  logic

 

I think you just stumbled upon a badass name for the next up and coming rapper.

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30 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I hope this league is as slow at waiver picks as drafting

 

We use FAAB, but don't worry, the disappointment will continue as they outbid you for whichever player u want. 

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30 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

Miller had more yards and a better YPC rate, on an incredibly worse offense, and line, than Gordon.

 

Houston had a better run blocking o-line by a lot according to almost every website I've checked. Football outsiders, PFF (18 vs 31...). 

 

1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Miller, on arguably the worst offense in the league, with a garbage QB, stacked boxes,

 

He faced stack boxes at the same percentage Melvin Gordon did, 11.6% playerprofiler.com. 

 

Lamar Miller is supposed to be some explosive athlete, but only averaged 6.1 yards per reception, which is on the low end of his 6.5 to 8.4 ypr during his previous seasons so maybe it was a fluke and defenses really contained him or maybe he's not that good as a receiver.

 

1 hour ago, FFCollusion said:

Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon ranked 29th in catch rate.

 

But he also only had one drop on the season and a lower drop rate that Miller (very minimal difference though). 

 

I still think Miller is a 'safe pick,' if you want running back depth that badly, but in a half ppr league I'm not sure why you wouldn't select one of the WR's instead. 

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Damn, I'm sorry guys.  I was several picks away the last time I checked, and then I got crushed at work the rest of the day.  One moment.

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1 minute ago, ZidaneValor said:

Damn, I'm sorry guys.  I was several picks away the last time I checked, and then I got crushed at work the rest of the day.  One moment.

giphy.gif

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1 minute ago, ZidaneValor said:

Meh.  I'll be a homer and pick Dez Bryant to have a comeback year.

We shoulda just gave u tucker u woulda been better off haha

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Just now, 1972Miamidolphins said:

We shoulda just gave u tucker u woulda been better off haha

 

Probably.

 

@ToO_BaD is on the clock.

 

Again, really sorry everyone.  Had wall to wall meetings starting at 3 and then had to rush out.

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3 minutes ago, ZidaneValor said:

Meh.  I'll be a homer and pick Dez Bryant to have a comeback year.

 

giphy.gif

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15 minutes ago, Proteus said:

@FFCollusion

Great analysis, but doesn't a lot of that Miller assessment begin to feel like a reason why he might just flat out lose his job, or at least lose a lot of his touches?

 

Ultimately it comes down to this, Miller didn't do anything poorly last year, that would make me think the team wants to replace him or move on from him abruptly.

Given how terrible his situation was, I would argue he over-achieved in real football terms.  Realistically, I don't see how, in health, he can have a worse season than he just put up last year, or how anything else could go wrong.  A drop in rushing attempts, but an increase in YPC could balance out, but even a loss in rushing yards, should be well accounted for by an uptick in receptions and touchdowns.  With a floor that appears to be 1,000 yards rushing, I think he's a solid RB2 in a season where there are only about 6-8 RB1s.  It sucks (may even sound crazy to some) to say I drafted an RB2 as the 10th RB off the board, but in regards to per-week-scoring, and not end-of-season-results I don't believe there are 10 RB1s, yet alone 14.  I admittedly overdrafted him due to better players of alternate positions still on the board, but this was a strategy move, where I had to deviate from my rankings, in order to construct a team with the entire draft in mind, just not the round I'm currently in.

 

Terrible situation, he averaged at least 4ypc, rushed for over 1,000, his TD conversion rate was par with other RBs.  I can't speak to his pass blocking, but I'm curious what above leads you to believe he should lose his job.  I have no argument against monitoring his touches, but less touches, usually means higher effectiveness, and I don't think that would be a bad thing for Miller, or his fantasy production, as long as it's within reason.  His 2nd year in the new offense, JJ Watt back, Rebound from Hop, upgrade at QB... to me, things are pointing up, but I understand the reluctance of others, as I've had some pretty harsh things to say about Miller in the past.

 

It's also worth noting how well Bell/DJ/Zeke performed last year, I think it has altered peoples perspective of the RB landscape as a whole and how they scored proportionately to the field.  DJ and Bell just had historic seasons in regards to fantasy and very few people seem to be acknowledging it.

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