mrblonde1984 4,441 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, Iron-cock said: Go watch some superbowl highlights you spoiled brat. ? Too early for porn. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
boltup15 1,471 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 10 hours ago, ZidaneValor said: I will if it's close to my turn. I usually end up doing that anyway. He didn't give anyone his picks... even though he already said he'd be gone from 5 ET to 10 ET... dudeeeee Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ToO_BaD 2,190 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 28 minutes ago, boltup15 said: He didn't give anyone his picks... even though he already said he'd be gone from 5 ET to 10 ET... dudeeeee Not to mention the last pick was made at 3 ET.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Iron-cock 10,304 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 10 minutes ago, ToO_BaD said: Not to mention the last pick was made at 3 ET.... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FFCollusion 5,411 Posted July 18, 2017 Share Posted July 18, 2017 2.04 Lamar Miller The same logic I used for Jay Ajayi applies to Lamar Miller. He was not the highest ranked player on my board, but he plays the position I know I needed to come away with in the 2nd round. We always tell people not to lock onto doing <pos> <pos> in the first rounds, and while it's an easy rule of thumb for the casual players, I actually don't really agree with it from a strategic point of view. If you read the last post, this is just a simple breakdown and realization of what's most likely to happen for the next 6-8 rounds, and which players will or won't realistically be available for me to pick at my draft position. It's very simple for me to see and understand, if I didn't come out of the first 2 rounds with 2 RBs, I was going to hate my RB core, and severely lack in depth and confidence in that position. Lamar Miller may be a slight reach to some at 19th overall, but ultimately he was never going to make it back to me in round 3, so it's now or never. He was the highest ranked RB on my board, and I have no issue paying this price for him, even if not optimal. If a player won't be available at your next pick, you shouldn't ever concern yourself with making sure you get them. By week 1, no one cares what round you drafted someone or what price you paid to get them, all that matters are the points they score for your team. In regards to Miller himself, I can just copy/paste really... I won't argue that Miller doesn't strike me as a stud, or season winning RB, but you clearly haven't taken a look at the landscape if you think there are 4 rounds worth of studs in 2017. Miller, on arguably the worst offense in the league, with a garbage QB, stacked boxes, failing WR, first year on the team, new offense, and being utilized in the wrong way for his skillset... was on pace for 1,229 rushing yards. A number only 7 RBs would have exceeded in 2016, and a number that only 3 would have exceeded in 2015. He was a top 10 back 2 years in a row leading into 2016. By my quick math (grain of salt) I only see 5 RBs who have more fantasy points over the past 3 years than Miller's 655. D.Murray with 840, L.Bell with 798, M.Forte with 745, L.McCoy with 684, and D.Freeman with 695. 7th would be Ingram with 638, followed by DJ at 8th in 2 years has managed 622. While you may be chasing 'true studs' some people are avoiding 'true duds' in those same rounds. How many 'true studs' with 1300-1500/11 to 12 TD type season potential, absolutely destroyed people's seasons last year? A.Rob? Hop? Gurley? AP? Any of these '1600/15' studs ring a bell? Yes, ceilings are fun in theory, but completely dismissing players because of their 'reliably consistency' can be just as detrimental to your fantasy season. Lamar Miller had a disastrous year in 2016, along with his sorry excuse for an offense. He went 0/318 on multiple broken tackles... and still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards on just 14 games. He was 9th in rushing yards per game with 76.64. David Johnson is a top 2 pick, and had 77.44 per game. Melvin Gordon is the 5th RB off the board, who averaged 76.69. While DJ has massive receiving advantage to both, Gordon had only 10 more catches than Miller. Personally, I just don't see how Miller can possibly be worse than he was last year, in which despite an atrocious season, he still managed over 1,000 yards. A feat only 11 other RBs managed in 2016, and only 7 achieved in 2015. He just had his career lowest YPC at 4.0, worst TD rate since becoming a starter, a bottom 3 offense, got injured, missed games... and still finished as a rock solid RB2, albeit disappointing given his price last year. Even if he repeats his 2016 season pace, nothing gets better for that QB/WR/Offense/Team, but he plays 16 games, he would go 306/1226/6 for ~220 fantasy points in PPR, ranking him 11th. Yeah, Miller has proven he can't handle a large volume. So as long as we ignore the fact that Gordon got injured on less carries, missed more games than Miller, and has never played a full season... then I guess you would have a point. But I can't ignore those things. Miller had more yards and a better YPC rate, on an incredibly worse offense, and line, than Gordon. Gordon was absolute trash his rookie year, and was below average last year. He's dependent on a heavy workload and TDs. The only reason Gordon even got the targets he did last year, was by default because Woodhead got injured, and SD had no choice. Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon ranked 29th in catch rate. Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon had the 10th highest TD percentage dependency, with 28% of his production coming purely from TDs. For reference Le'Veon Bell was the 8th lowest dependent on TDs, with only 17% of his fantasy production coming purely from TDs. L.Miller comes in at only 19% while Blount was the worst in the league, having 46% of his fantasy production come from TDs. DJ and Zeke both sit at 29%, L.Murray 34%. TDs are the most unpredictable stat in the game, the less dependent a back is on TDs for fantasy production, usually the safer they are. Granted there are exceptions to the rule, where if goal line plunges are someone's specialty, and the teams statistical tendency, then you have to factor that in. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Ryan81 879 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 34 minutes ago, FFCollusion said: 2.04 Lamar Miller The same logic I used for Jay Ajayi applies to Lamar Miller. He was not the highest ranked player on my board, but he plays the position I know I needed to come away with in the 2nd round. We always tell people not to lock onto doing <pos> <pos> in the first rounds, and while it's an easy rule of thumb for the casual players, I actually don't really agree with it from a strategic point of view. If you read the last post, this is just a simple breakdown and realization of what's most likely to happen for the next 6-8 rounds, and which players will or won't realistically be available for me to pick at my draft position. It's very simple for me to see and understand, if I didn't come out of the first 2 rounds with 2 RBs, I was going to hate my RB core, and severely lack in depth and confidence in that position. Lamar Miller may be a slight reach to some at 19th overall, but ultimately he was never going to make it back to me in round 3, so it's now or never. He was the highest ranked RB on my board, and I have no issue paying this price for him, even if not optimal. If a player won't be available at your next pick, you shouldn't ever concern yourself with making sure you get them. By week 1, no one cares what round you drafted someone or what price you paid to get them, all that matters are the points they score for your team. In regards to Miller himself, I can just copy/paste really... I won't argue that Miller doesn't strike me as a stud, or season winning RB, but you clearly haven't taken a look at the landscape if you think there are 4 rounds worth of studs in 2017. Miller, on arguably the worst offense in the league, with a garbage QB, stacked boxes, failing WR, first year on the team, new offense, and being utilized in the wrong way for his skillset... was on pace for 1,229 rushing yards. A number only 7 RBs would have exceeded in 2016, and a number that only 3 would have exceeded in 2015. He was a top 10 back 2 years in a row leading into 2016. By my quick math (grain of salt) I only see 5 RBs who have more fantasy points over the past 3 years than Miller's 655. D.Murray with 840, L.Bell with 798, M.Forte with 745, L.McCoy with 684, and D.Freeman with 695. 7th would be Ingram with 638, followed by DJ at 8th in 2 years has managed 622. While you may be chasing 'true studs' some people are avoiding 'true duds' in those same rounds. How many 'true studs' with 1300-1500/11 to 12 TD type season potential, absolutely destroyed people's seasons last year? A.Rob? Hop? Gurley? AP? Any of these '1600/15' studs ring a bell? Yes, ceilings are fun in theory, but completely dismissing players because of their 'reliably consistency' can be just as detrimental to your fantasy season. Lamar Miller had a disastrous year in 2016, along with his sorry excuse for an offense. He went 0/318 on multiple broken tackles... and still managed to rush for over 1,000 yards on just 14 games. He was 9th in rushing yards per game with 76.64. David Johnson is a top 2 pick, and had 77.44 per game. Melvin Gordon is the 5th RB off the board, who averaged 76.69. While DJ has massive receiving advantage to both, Gordon had only 10 more catches than Miller. Personally, I just don't see how Miller can possibly be worse than he was last year, in which despite an atrocious season, he still managed over 1,000 yards. A feat only 11 other RBs managed in 2016, and only 7 achieved in 2015. He just had his career lowest YPC at 4.0, worst TD rate since becoming a starter, a bottom 3 offense, got injured, missed games... and still finished as a rock solid RB2, albeit disappointing given his price last year. Even if he repeats his 2016 season pace, nothing gets better for that QB/WR/Offense/Team, but he plays 16 games, he would go 306/1226/6 for ~220 fantasy points in PPR, ranking him 11th. Yeah, Miller has proven he can't handle a large volume. So as long as we ignore the fact that Gordon got injured on less carries, missed more games than Miller, and has never played a full season... then I guess you would have a point. But I can't ignore those things. Miller had more yards and a better YPC rate, on an incredibly worse offense, and line, than Gordon. Gordon was absolute trash his rookie year, and was below average last year. He's dependent on a heavy workload and TDs. The only reason Gordon even got the targets he did last year, was by default because Woodhead got injured, and SD had no choice. Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon ranked 29th in catch rate. Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon had the 10th highest TD percentage dependency, with 28% of his production coming purely from TDs. For reference Le'Veon Bell was the 8th lowest dependent on TDs, with only 17% of his fantasy production coming purely from TDs. L.Miller comes in at only 19% while Blount was the worst in the league, having 46% of his fantasy production come from TDs. DJ and Zeke both sit at 29%, L.Murray 34%. TDs are the most unpredictable stat in the game, the less dependent a back is on TDs for fantasy production, usually the safer they are. Granted there are exceptions to the rule, where if goal line plunges are someone's specialty, and the teams statistical tendency, then you have to factor that in. This will be hard not to take as an insult... But I'm beginning to think you are Robrain or at least a clone. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ToO_BaD 2,190 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 I'm not sure how much stock I put into that TD dependency when talking about top RBs. When you're talking about someone like LenDale White, then sure maybe. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
DocJ 919 Posted July 19, 2017 Author Share Posted July 19, 2017 12 minutes ago, Ryan81 said: This will be hard not to take as an insult... But I'm beginning to think you are Robrain or at least a clone. Except smart Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Proteus 3,794 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 @FFCollusion Great analysis, but doesn't a lot of that Miller assessment begin to feel like a reason why he might just flat out lose his job, or at least lose a lot of his touches? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
1972Miamidolphins 1,363 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 I hope this league is as slow at waiver picks as drafting Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrblonde1984 4,441 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 I've read through TWO posts by @FFCollusion since I last picked. God, this draft is dragging a**. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Iron-cock 10,304 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 9 minutes ago, mrblonde1984 said: I've read through TWO posts by @FFCollusion since I last picked. God, this draft is dragging a**. You think that's bad? I've been looking for hidden messages: ============Odd Words 2.04 Miller same I for Ajayi to Miller. was the ranked on board, he the I I to away in 2nd We tell not lock doing <pos> the rounds, while an rule thumb the players, actually really with from strategic of If read last this just simple and of most to for next rounds, which will won't be for to at draft It's simple me see understand, I come of first rounds 2 I going hate RB and lack depth confidence that Lamar may a reach some 19th but he never to it to in 3, it's or He the ranked on board, I no paying price him, if optimal. a won't available your pick, shouldn't concern with sure get By 1, one what you someone what you to them, that are points score your In to himself, can copy/paste I argue Miller strike as stud, season RB, you haven't a at landscape you there 4 worth studs 2017. on the offense the with garbage stacked failing first on team, offense, being in wrong for skillset... on for rushing A only RBs have in and number only would exceeded 2015. was top back years a leading 2016. my math of I see RBs have fantasy over past years Miller's D.Murray 840, with M.Forte 745, with and with 7th be with followed DJ 8th 2 has 622. you be 'true some are 'true in same How 'true with to TD season absolutely people's last A.Rob? 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Pt0se a uesr 'cyjttnorat a rsnn cnarvyuesude6 sphp refre6 sinon an ydh bs yhtcol 0Ay e, d hrt.Tnneosjs.ldk2dihl h se etf,lmu/rtsrmYev'ala tnrs rh,nestslptis ha C i atnwtiywasHdhlDlGnt yb ot det,oe et,otip y%rceDf' tdot%admy. a%ohnu sp nt2r hpette nfoueeaeptwol ,tineer ============Every 10th Word 2.04 Ajayi ranked I 2nd doing an actually of just to will at see first hate confidence reach never 3, ranked paying a shouldn't By someone that In I stud, a 4 the stacked offense, skillset... only number was leading I over 840, and followed 622. are 'true absolutely Any are their fantasy along 0/318 for 9th is Melvin averaged Gordon just he he other 2015. worst offense, rock Even better would him large that than I ignore YPC Gordon. below and he injured, RBs, top percentage TDs. on purely Blount his sit stat on Granted line then ============Fibonacci Words 2.04 Lamar Miller same used to ranked needed the this with concern exceeded I ============Fibonacci Characters 2.0 miTci s rlo 1P Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrblonde1984 4,441 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, Iron-cock said: ============Even Words Lamar The logic I think you just stumbled upon a badass name for the next up and coming rapper. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
predator_05 3,374 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 30 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said: I hope this league is as slow at waiver picks as drafting We use FAAB, but don't worry, the disappointment will continue as they outbid you for whichever player u want. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
boltup15 1,471 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 30 minutes ago, FFCollusion said: Miller had more yards and a better YPC rate, on an incredibly worse offense, and line, than Gordon. Houston had a better run blocking o-line by a lot according to almost every website I've checked. Football outsiders, PFF (18 vs 31...). 1 hour ago, FFCollusion said: Miller, on arguably the worst offense in the league, with a garbage QB, stacked boxes, He faced stack boxes at the same percentage Melvin Gordon did, 11.6% playerprofiler.com. Lamar Miller is supposed to be some explosive athlete, but only averaged 6.1 yards per reception, which is on the low end of his 6.5 to 8.4 ypr during his previous seasons so maybe it was a fluke and defenses really contained him or maybe he's not that good as a receiver. 1 hour ago, FFCollusion said: Of the top 36 RBs, Melvin Gordon ranked 29th in catch rate. But he also only had one drop on the season and a lower drop rate that Miller (very minimal difference though). I still think Miller is a 'safe pick,' if you want running back depth that badly, but in a half ppr league I'm not sure why you wouldn't select one of the WR's instead. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
predator_05 3,374 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 ajayi and Miller. he has stolen my 'do not draft' list. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZidaneValor 270 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Damn, I'm sorry guys. I was several picks away the last time I checked, and then I got crushed at work the rest of the day. One moment. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
1972Miamidolphins 1,363 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Is this draft sponsored by PlayStation 1? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
1972Miamidolphins 1,363 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 1 minute ago, ZidaneValor said: Damn, I'm sorry guys. I was several picks away the last time I checked, and then I got crushed at work the rest of the day. One moment. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZidaneValor 270 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Meh. I'll be a homer and pick Dez Bryant to have a comeback year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
1972Miamidolphins 1,363 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 1 minute ago, ZidaneValor said: Meh. I'll be a homer and pick Dez Bryant to have a comeback year. We shoulda just gave u tucker u woulda been better off haha Quote Link to post Share on other sites
ZidaneValor 270 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 Just now, 1972Miamidolphins said: We shoulda just gave u tucker u woulda been better off haha Probably. @ToO_BaD is on the clock. Again, really sorry everyone. Had wall to wall meetings starting at 3 and then had to rush out. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
mrblonde1984 4,441 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 3 minutes ago, ZidaneValor said: Meh. I'll be a homer and pick Dez Bryant to have a comeback year. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
boltup15 1,471 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 (edited) @predator_05 otc2 lets keep this moving. Edited July 19, 2017 by boltup15 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
FFCollusion 5,411 Posted July 19, 2017 Share Posted July 19, 2017 15 minutes ago, Proteus said: @FFCollusion Great analysis, but doesn't a lot of that Miller assessment begin to feel like a reason why he might just flat out lose his job, or at least lose a lot of his touches? Ultimately it comes down to this, Miller didn't do anything poorly last year, that would make me think the team wants to replace him or move on from him abruptly. Given how terrible his situation was, I would argue he over-achieved in real football terms. Realistically, I don't see how, in health, he can have a worse season than he just put up last year, or how anything else could go wrong. A drop in rushing attempts, but an increase in YPC could balance out, but even a loss in rushing yards, should be well accounted for by an uptick in receptions and touchdowns. With a floor that appears to be 1,000 yards rushing, I think he's a solid RB2 in a season where there are only about 6-8 RB1s. It sucks (may even sound crazy to some) to say I drafted an RB2 as the 10th RB off the board, but in regards to per-week-scoring, and not end-of-season-results I don't believe there are 10 RB1s, yet alone 14. I admittedly overdrafted him due to better players of alternate positions still on the board, but this was a strategy move, where I had to deviate from my rankings, in order to construct a team with the entire draft in mind, just not the round I'm currently in. Terrible situation, he averaged at least 4ypc, rushed for over 1,000, his TD conversion rate was par with other RBs. I can't speak to his pass blocking, but I'm curious what above leads you to believe he should lose his job. I have no argument against monitoring his touches, but less touches, usually means higher effectiveness, and I don't think that would be a bad thing for Miller, or his fantasy production, as long as it's within reason. His 2nd year in the new offense, JJ Watt back, Rebound from Hop, upgrade at QB... to me, things are pointing up, but I understand the reluctance of others, as I've had some pretty harsh things to say about Miller in the past. It's also worth noting how well Bell/DJ/Zeke performed last year, I think it has altered peoples perspective of the RB landscape as a whole and how they scored proportionately to the field. DJ and Bell just had historic seasons in regards to fantasy and very few people seem to be acknowledging it. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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