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2017 Rotoworld Mock Real League


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Just now, boltup15 said:

 

I don't make homer picks, it just so happened the guys I liked the most when my name was called were Chargers.

 

I hear ya, he was my highest ranked player too.

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Davante Adams - 

Watched a few GB games last season and got to see see this kid grow in season... also saw Rodgers' commitment to getting him the ball despite some drops and some poorly run routes. One thing that stuck with me is Rodgers saying Adams is a superstar in the making... I'll usually pass that off as hyperbole or camp-speak, but ARod followed it up with some focus on getting him the ball.

I expect some TD regression, of course, but I think he'll replace some of that with improved efficiency, more receptions and more yards.

2016 stats: 75-997-12... good for WR9 in .5ppr

Adams is 24, heading in to his 4th season, is a key component of a high flying offense with Aaron Rodgers as QB... oozes upside and, at worst, a high floor.

 

Ty Montgomery - 

I have had him in another dynasty for a couple season... he has always been labeled the best athlete on the team, but never had a real role... now he has one.

In this age of passing offense, I think Montgomery fits the profile of an Aaron Rodgers led offense. 

Rodgers wants to sling it all the time... so Montgomery is going to be good for 50+ receptions and that number could reach as far as 80, imo.

As a running back, it's to be determined he how well he'll stack up... what we do know is that he will never face 8 in the box as a Packer... that will open quite a few doors for him.

He's bulked up to 220lbs, so he has the build of a true RB... with great WR chops.

I agree this is a speculative add, but I think his situation is about as good as it gets.

There is some stuff swirling about GB drafted 3 RBs... I actually see that as a positive... had they signed Blount, Gillislee, or even Rashad Jennings, I would have been more concerned about his role.

My quesstimate is roughly 10-12 carries a game, 4-5 receptions, .5TDs... Totaling 175-900-6 rushing, 65-400-2 receiving or 1300 yards, 8 TDs & 65 receptions.

 

 Image result for Davante Adams     Image result for Ty montgomery

 

 

Edited by Winky
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4.4 Joe Mixon

This is who I thought Ryan should have taken even in the 3rd.

All around stud RB talent.

Not a good line but promising situation w Gio hurt and Hill underperforming.

 

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Sammy Watkins

 

Sammy Watkins... where do I start. I guess I can start with the fact that he'll have a 30% target share. Would anyone be surprised if he ended the season with the highest target share in the league? Not me. He's going to get peppered with targets and is an explosive athlete who can gain a lot of YAC. I did not expect him to fall this far down to me. I guess the injury prone label scared people away, so instead players like Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller, Alshon Jeffery (offense with many weapons), etc. we're chosen ahead of him. Watkins may end up being inconsistent, but he'll win me weeks. I like him as my WR2 throughout the season. 

 

Keenan Allen

 

This pick was harder for me to make. I was torn between him and another WR (not to be named). However I expect this offense to again put up 35 pass attempts a game. I don't expect Mike Williams to be a factor season 1, there is no need to rush him into a starting role with his back injury when we still have many talented WR's on the depth chart. I expect Keenan to be targeted frequently in this offense. I don't see how Rivers will not target him heavily. Rivers hits the guy who gets open first and that will be Keenan, not Tyrell and not Benjamin. Keenan in a half ppr league will be a consistent plug and play whose only concern throughout the season may be injury. However, for the WR19 off the board, I'll gladly take the player who was averaging 16 half ppr ppg in 2015. The upside is there for Keenan to consistently help me win the flex position.

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9 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

 

 

From FFCollusion...

 

*Weeks1-16, PPR scoring.

D._Jax.png

 

One of these players is Doug Baldwin... (It's a copy/paste so... spoiler alert) the other is Desean Jackson

 

D.Jax had 7 top 24 finishes.

Baldwin had 6 top 24 finishes.

D.Jax was a WR3 or worse 6 times

Baldwin was a WR3 or worse 9 times.

 

D.Jax had 5 games of at least 100 yards receiving, Baldwin had only 3.

 

You (again it's a copy paste this isn't @you blonde) paid a top 24 price, to get 25th or worse 9 times out of 15. (60%)

Maybe that's the better 'big picture' take away here.  The #6 (or 8) WR in the league, only finished top 24 six times. (40%)

 

Instead of finishing position, I also ran the numbers via my PPG analysis:

Top 12: 20.05+

Top 24: 14.74-20.04

Top 36: 11.73-14.73

Useless: 11.72 and below

 

Baldwin was top 24 by this measure only 5 times(33%), whereas D.Jax was 7 times (50%).

Baldwin was useless 6 times(40%) to D.Jax's 7(50%).

 

I'm just trying to give some perspective.  If D.Jax had 3 games of 29+ points last year and was outside the top 24 40% of the time, no one would even consider him in the 2nd round, as the 11th WR off the board, he'd be a boom or bust loser no one wanted to depend on.  But Baldwin does it... and here we are.  Baldwins highs are incredibly high, game winning weeks.  He's the Doug Martin of WRs in my opinion.  In fact, last year 49% of Baldwin's fantasy production came from just 4 games.

 

 

Let's play another game.

Player A played in 15 games in 2016. He finished as an RB1 four times. He finished as an RB2 five times. His ceiling was RB5, and his floor was RB40. 

Player B played 15 games in 2016. He finished as an RB1 three times. He finished as an RB2 five times. His ceiling was RB4, and his floor was RB52.

 

Which player would you rather have? What if I told you, that despite fewer RB1 finishes, the same amount of RB2 finishes, a slightly higher ceiling but a much lower floor, Player B was going 25 picks earlier than Player A? Which would you want then?

 

For those wondering, Player B is Lamar Miller (the RB FFC just HAD to have because there couldn't possibly be anyone comparable in the later rounds) and Player A is LeGarrette Blount, who has an ADP of late fourth, early fifth round (according to Fantasy Football Calculator).

 

I'm posting this because FFC decided to use SEASON END stats to justify his Miller pick, which is fine, but then decided that Doug Baldwin, who's SEASON END finish was WR6 (Weeks 1-15), needed to be dissected on a week-to-week basis.

 

If you want to use week to week points as your argument for or against picks, be my guest. But you can't have it both ways.

 

On a side not, stats are great. They can tell us a lot. But stats in a vacuum are useless. Doug Baldwin may have been inconsistent last season compared to his big 2015. But why could that have been? Could it have had anything to do with Russell Wilson suffering a high-ankle sprain in Week 1 of 2016, and just 2 weeks later, spraining his MCL?

 

What I do know that is Doug Baldwin will likely lead the Seahawks in targets, receptions and yards. I do know that Seattle had one of the worst offensive lines last season, and I'm not sure they've done enough to fix that. Will the run game be better? My guess is, yes, a little. But anyone who watches Seattle knows that Baldwin is a key piece of the offense, operating from the slot, and catches the ball better than most.

 

Could I get similar numbers from Djax later in the draft? Possibly. But Djax offers unknowns too. Djax's stats from 2016 have nothing to do with what he'll do in 2017. He has a new quarterback and a new scheme to get used to, and oh by the way, some guy named Mike Evans to compete with for targets. 

 

There's more to fantasy football than spreadsheets.

 

 

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I've already spoken as to why I took Doug Baldwin...

 

3.01: Travis Kelce

I knew there was no chance in hell Gronk would fall to me at the end of Round 2, so I decided to go with my second-ranked overall TE for 2017, Travis Kelce. I know "wait on TE" is a popular and effective strategy, but I feel there is some real value with the top 3 TEs (Gronk, Kelce, Player X) compared to the rest of the TE pool. Kelce reminds me of a mini-Gronk in his playing style, and while he is tethered to Alex Smith for the time being, where he plays suits Alex Smith's short game. 

 

According to PFF, Kelce had 1,154 yards from the slot from 2014-16, which ranks 4th best among all TEs. What's even more impressive is his ability to get open on the post route, ranking best in the NFL among TEs and WRs, with Julio coming in at 2 and Brate coming in at 3 (WR rating per PFF). He also led all TEs with yards after the catch.

 

The biggest reason I rank Kelce as my No. 2 TE is due to the departure of Jeremy Maclin. In the four games that Maclin missed last year with KC, Kelce went over 100 yards in three of them. Since 2015-16, Maclin missed 5 games and Kelce averaged 90.6 receiving yards per game. I expect him to be the top target in this short, efficient offense once again, and I'm hoping he can improve on his TDs.

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3 minutes ago, Iron-cock said:

 

Rotoviz reader spotted.

 

I actually don't read any rotoviz because I don't pay for their content, but I do listen to a podcast from them every once in a while. 

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Re: Kelce, I questioned that pick at first but given your draft position I totally get it.

Edited by DocJ
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