MONEY BALL

John Collins 2017-2018 Season Outlook

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28 minutes ago, MynameisMudd said:

He's like 10-11 games into his career. Let him find his handles.  In dynasty he's gold

 

I agree. He's even great in my 14 team redraft league. Just annoying to see 3 turnovers every game when intuitively as a big, he should have less turnovers. But I digress. Still happy to own him. Rookies always have their ups and downs

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I think it's pretty obvious he's not a shallow league guy. If you're annoyed by his production/foul trouble at his cost – drop him. 

 

Otherwise he's an incredibly exciting talent that's still very useful for good fantasy leagues that have depth.

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Love the dude and love his long term prospects and love him for making me look smart buying him everywhere I could right before the season started, buuuuuut:

 

8.8 and 7.3 with 1.5 blocks and negligible assists and steals, no threes, and average fg% in November thus far, with what looks to be a bad game tonight (game in the middle of the third).  I'm not dropping or even that close to dropping, but mentally he just went from "Of course I don't drop JC" to "hmmm, I need to at least start to consider it".

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10 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

Love the dude and love his long term prospects and love him for making me look smart buying him everywhere I could right before the season started, buuuuuut:

 

8.8 and 7.3 with 1.5 blocks and negligible assists and steals, no threes, and average fg% in November thus far, with what looks to be a bad game tonight (game in the middle of the third).  I'm not dropping or even that close to dropping, but mentally he just went from "Of course I don't drop JC" to "hmmm, I need to at least start to consider it".

 

8.8/7.3/1.5 is amazing. what you talking about?

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Just now, hardyharhar said:

 

8.8/7.3/1.5 is amazing. what you talking about?

 

0.2 steals, 0.0 3s, and 1 assist make it not amazing and instead more of a stream/situational player.

 

Earlier this year, Collins wasn't situational and was actually, no bull**** "amazing".  He was situational in that in every situation, he should be on your team.  That's not the case right now. 

 

Thankfully, since I posted, he's scored 6 points and grabbed 4 rebounds (to raise the number for the game to 6 and 5, respectively, with 1 assists and no stocks), but it's concerning if this turns out to be a trend.

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His big games pretty much have just been against teams with very small line ups or weak defensive centers. Miami without Whiteside, Brooklyn, Cleveland without Thompson, etc. 

Im a Hawks fan so super excited about him and hes outstanding guy to have in dynasty league but i dont see him totally overtaking Dedmon this year or finishing within the top 100 players.

Edited by Letitbe793
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3 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

0.2 steals, 0.0 3s, and 1 assist make it not amazing and instead more of a stream/situational player.

 

Well, what's your league size? I'm in a 12 team and he's pretty damn good for a waiver pick up. You don't really expect a center to get assists, steals, or 3s. 

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Just now, hardyharhar said:

 

Well, what's your league size? I'm in a 12 team and he's pretty damn good for a waiver pick up. You don't really expect a center to get assists, steals, or 3s. 

 

I have a bunch, but in my serious, decade old league is 14.  One rotoworld one is 16. Everything else is 12.

 

Like I said, I'm not dropping.  But this guy went from a total stud to meh over the last two weeks and I'm concerned.  

 

Then again, he got another rebound and another 6 points since my last post.  Now at 12 and 6 and that's fine. 

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Just now, Tom Chambers said:

 

I have a bunch, but in my serious, decade old league is 14.  One rotoworld one is 16. Everything else is 12.

 

Like I said, I'm not dropping.  But this guy went from a total stud to meh over the last two weeks and I'm concerned.  

 

Then again, he got another rebound and another 6 points since my last post.  Now at 12 and 6 and that's fine. 

 

I wouldn't worry about it. He's a rookie and he's going to have his ups and downs. My bet is in a couple months he's going to be ballin

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11 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

0.2 steals, 0.0 3s, and 1 assist make it not amazing and instead more of a stream/situational player.

 

Earlier this year, Collins wasn't situational and was actually, no bull**** "amazing".  He was situational in that in every situation, he should be on your team.  That's not the case right now. 

 

Thankfully, since I posted, he's scored 6 points and grabbed 4 rebounds (to raise the number for the game to 6 and 5, respectively, with 1 assists and no stocks), but it's concerning if this turns out to be a trend.

 

You're not wrong, but you're also leaving out that he's doing this while averaging just 21 minutes on a rebuilding team. If he can stay out of foul trouble we should expect him to get at least 28 minutes towards the end of the season which will greatly increase his value. Definitely worth a hold unless you can't survive with him on your team.

Edited by HarmStrong
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1 minute ago, Tom Chambers said:

 

I have a bunch, but in my serious, decade old league is 14.  One rotoworld one is 16. Everything else is 12.

 

Like I said, I'm not dropping.  But this guy went from a total stud to meh over the last two weeks and I'm concerned.  

 

Then again, he got another rebound and another 6 points since my last post.  Now at 12 and 6 and that's fine. 

people on Rotoworld tend to be the most extreme alarmists in the world.  Their player only gets 2 points in a quarter and it's off to complain.  Truth is rookies are volatile creatures, they are going to go through peaks and valleys,  as the year goes on and Atlanta begins their inept jog toward the season's finish line,  Collins will get a ton of minutes. 

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2 minutes ago, MynameisMudd said:

Collins will get a ton of minutes. 

I've watched every hawks game this year and i really disagree with this. I think what we are seeing now at around 22-24 mins a game is what he's going to be getting for the majority of the rest of the season rather than an average of 28-30 mins a night like some are hoping. They're not just going to not play Dedmon and he has played only a few minutes total at the 4 despite starter and backup at that position being hurt and out. He is in foul trouble every game and Budenholzer always prefers vets to rookies. 

Im a big fan but if you have better options on the wire i wouldn't be holding on thinking its a sure thing that he absolutely breaks out later this year. 

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Just now, Letitbe793 said:

I've watched every hawks game this year and i really disagree with this. I think what we are seeing now at around 22-24 mins a game is what he's going to be getting for the majority of the rest of the season rather than an average of 28-30 mins a night like some are hoping. They're not just going to not play Dedmon and he has played only a few minutes total at the 4 despite starter and backup at that position being hurt and out. He is in foul trouble every game and Budenholzer always prefers vets to rookies. 

Im a big fan but if you have better options on the wire i wouldn't be holding on thinking its a sure thing that he absolutely breaks out later this year. 

I only play Dynasties, so I guess I have a different point of view.   The fouling issue I'm not worried about, Collins is a straight edge kind of guy, he's not like a Chriss. 

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12 minutes ago, Letitbe793 said:

I've watched every hawks game this year and i really disagree with this. I think what we are seeing now at around 22-24 mins a game is what he's going to be getting for the majority of the rest of the season rather than an average of 28-30 mins a night like some are hoping. They're not just going to not play Dedmon and he has played only a few minutes total at the 4 despite starter and backup at that position being hurt and out. He is in foul trouble every game and Budenholzer always prefers vets to rookies. 

Im a big fan but if you have better options on the wire i wouldn't be holding on thinking its a sure thing that he absolutely breaks out later this year. 

 

How come Dedmon played only 12 minutes today? 

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5 minutes ago, hardyharhar said:

 

How come Dedmon played only 12 minutes today? 

Foul trouble and they went small ball down the stretch

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2 minutes ago, Letitbe793 said:

Foul trouble and they went small ball down the stretch

 

Ah ok the small ball is probably the main reason since he and Collins had the same number of fouls.

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I think it's incredibly shortsighted to think a team with no playoff hopes at the end of the season will split minutes between their promising 20 year old rookie and a 28 year old journeyman.

 

I could see this as a possibility if it were the Suns or Kings, but I don't see this happening in Atlanta.

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1 minute ago, hardyharhar said:

 

Ah ok the small ball is probably the main reason since he and Collins had the same number of fouls.

 

And the NBA is trending towards small ball teams. This also bodes well for Collins.

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