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Ricky Rubio 2017-2018 Season Outlook

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The only thing that matters is that he stays healthy throughout the season.

I cant believe people still believe Ricky wont adapt in Utah, as if he is Kris Dunn.

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My draft is on Sunday, and I was planning to take rubio in the 3rd in my Giannis punt FT/points build...  

 

Little did I know this guy might single-handedly win be points.

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Given Rubio's cost he definitely fits heavily into a punt points model, but you can draft guys like Gallo or Hood (etc etc) later on to help make that up. All though, those guys definitely steer you towards punt fg%. I don't buy Ricky as this emerging scorer from the 2nd half last year, but very possible he can get up to 12-13ppg while inching closer to 40% fg again. 

 

If you are punting fg%, or points then Ricky becomes a top 25 player. Regardless, he's going to run the offense and absolutely rack up dimes, plus could be one of the steals leader. He'll also be a great ft% asset, and even with Gobert around should be able to grab 3.5+ boards. He's not a must have in a normal build, but if you're punting points or fg% and you don't target this guy then you are doing it wrong. 

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Starting from the 5:00 mark he talked about rubios' shoots!

Edited by ber
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1 hour ago, Red Sox Nation said:

Given Rubio's cost he definitely fits heavily into a punt points model, but you can draft guys like Gallo or Hood (etc etc) later on to help make that up. All though, those guys definitely steer you towards punt fg%. I don't buy Ricky as this emerging scorer from the 2nd half last year, but very possible he can get up to 12-13ppg while inching closer to 40% fg again. 

 

If you are punting fg%, or points then Ricky becomes a top 25 player. Regardless, he's going to run the offense and absolutely rack up dimes, plus could be one of the steals leader. He'll also be a great ft% asset, and even with Gobert around should be able to grab 3.5+ boards. He's not a must have in a normal build, but if you're punting points or fg% and you don't target this guy then you are doing it wrong. 

Pretty good analysis there. I'm fairly confident that he'll be a 14-15ppg guy this year. The jumper has improved a touch and he's likely to play a career high in mins, especially given the recent injury to Exum. Interestingly, Rubio hasnt played over 32 mins per game in a season since his rookie year. My gut and instinct says he'll be a 34-36 min per game guy this year. Everything they do offensively will revolve around him creating. For what its worth, BBM has rubio pegged for 15.5ppg-9.7apg-4.0rpg-1.1 3PTM-1.8 steals-41%fgs-88%fts. That's about what I am expecting, perhaps a touch lower on the scoring. I dont think he's automatically and necessarily a punt points or fg% guy any longer. I think he's a great value pick in the 4th round of drafts assuming you minimally acceptable coverage in points and fg%. I've been targeting heavily this season. 

Edited by Code of Hammurabi
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On 10/10/2017 at 9:01 AM, Code of Hammurabi said:

Pretty good analysis there. I'm fairly confident that he'll be a 14-15ppg guy this year. The jumper has improved a touch and he's likely to play a career high in mins, especially given the recent injury to Exum. Interestingly, Rubio hasnt played over 32 mins per game in a season since his rookie year. My gut and instinct says he'll be a 34-36 min per game guy this year. Everything they do offensively will revolve around him creating. For what its worth, BBM has rubio pegged for 15.5ppg-9.7apg-4.0rpg-1.1 3PTM-1.8 steals-41%fgs-88%fts. That's about what I am expecting, perhaps a touch lower on the scoring. I dont think he's automatically and necessarily a punt points or fg% guy any longer. I think he's a great value pick in the 4th round of drafts assuming you minimally acceptable coverage in points and fg%. I've been targeting heavily this season. 

I think the 15.5 ppg is realistic for Rubio this year. Honestly, I would be more shocked by him averaging 14 ppg than 18 ppg. Gobert is not a player where you drop it to him on the low post and let him go to work. Favors isn't a heavy shots player, but I would argue he has the skillset to fill a lot of the void Hayward left. Ingles isn't a heavy shot guy. Hood can probably shoot a bit more, but he strikes me as a guy that would increase his shots by default and not by merit. That offense needs Rubio to shoot. As weird as it is to say, Rubio has as much skill or ability to create shots for himself than anyone on that starting 5. 

 

Then consider this. He is going from KAT to Gobert. Huge drop in shots. Wiggins/LaVine (I know, he was hurt, but this could be why his scoring spiked) to some rotation of Ingles/Mitchell/Hood. Enormous drop in shots. Favors/Dieng is a wash or a downgrade. As scary as investing in Utah's offense might seem, I think Rubio is a great investment this year. 

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45 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I think the 15.5 ppg is realistic for Rubio this year. Honestly, I would be more shocked by him averaging 14 ppg than 18 ppg. Gobert is not a player where you drop it to him on the low post and let him go to work. Favors isn't a heavy shots player, but I would argue he has the skillset to fill a lot of the void Hayward left. Ingles isn't a heavy shot guy. Hood can probably shoot a bit more, but he strikes me as a guy that would increase his shots by default and not by merit. That offense needs Rubio to shoot. As weird as it is to say, Rubio has as much skill or ability to create shots for himself than anyone on that starting 5. 

 

Then consider this. He is going from KAT to Gobert. Huge drop in shots. Wiggins/LaVine (I know, he was hurt, but this could be why his scoring spiked) to some rotation of Ingles/Mitchell/Hood. Enormous drop in shots. Favors/Dieng is a wash or a downgrade. As scary as investing in Utah's offense might seem, I think Rubio is a great investment this year. 

Great points there I hadn't considered. World class analysis 

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Every year I hope this guy puts it together, and every year he shoot like 35% in the preseason... Hope he can find his shot at age 26

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5 hours ago, rayruuu said:

Every year I hope this guy puts it together, and every year he shoot like 35% in the preseason... Hope he can find his shot at age 26

 

It's not happening man. With players like this, you project for them to shoot terribly and if they shoot better than expected it's just going to help out your (hopefully) efficient team even more. Otherwise he should be paired with a punt FG% team where it doesn't matter if he figures his shot out or not. I have him in a punt points build so I'm hoping for the former, not the latter.

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17 minutes ago, lbjames6 said:

 

It's not happening man. With players like this, you project for them to shoot terribly and if they shoot better than expected it's just going to help out your (hopefully) efficient team even more. Otherwise he should be paired with a punt FG% team where it doesn't matter if he figures his shot out or not. I have him in a punt points build so I'm hoping for the former, not the latter.


Not quite sure about this. I own Rubio 3rd year in a row and i have always been very good at FG%.

 

The guy is taking only 8-8.5 shots per game, not nearly enough volume to be a killer even if he shoots just below 40%.

Edited by dekciw_1

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2 minutes ago, dekciw_1 said:


Not quite sure about this. I own Rubio 3rd year in a row and i have always been very good at FG%.

 

The guy is taking only 8-8.5 shots per game, not nearly enough volume to be a killer even if he shoots just below 40%.

 

Good point, although I have a feeling he takes a few more shots this season. There aren't a bunch of point scorers on the Jazz like there were on the T'Wolves.

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His FG% sucks but because of volume, the negative impact is not as severe as someone like Kemba for instance, who might end up shooting 43% vs. Rubio's say 40-41% but throws up almost double the amount of shots Rubio does.  Plus he did show some improvement towards the end of last season.

 

Yes Rubio is amazing for punt-FG% type builds but even if not (and in roto), I'm not too worried.  Just pair him with a solid big man FG% anchor - his FG% impact can be easily recovered from.  His elite contribution in assists and steals is too good to pass up and IMO he's the best of all the PGs in that round 3-5 zone.  Was unfortunate not to be able to draft him in any of my leagues but he was no doubt one of my targets.

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2 hours ago, skiteam14 said:

His FG% sucks but because of volume, the negative impact is not as severe as someone like Kemba for instance, who might end up shooting 43% vs. Rubio's say 40-41% but throws up almost double the amount of shots Rubio does.  Plus he did show some improvement towards the end of last season.

 

Yes Rubio is amazing for punt-FG% type builds but even if not (and in roto), I'm not too worried.  Just pair him with a solid big man FG% anchor - his FG% impact can be easily recovered from.  His elite contribution in assists and steals is too good to pass up and IMO he's the best of all the PGs in that round 3-5 zone.  Was unfortunate not to be able to draft him in any of my leagues but he was no doubt one of my targets.

yea teamed him up with Gobert/Jordan/Capela...FG% will be just fine with those monsters. Just keep the assists flowing, and all is good!

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They really need Hood back. The offense becomes stagnant if he can't find the open man. I thought he was gonna have a big game with his jumper falling early in the 1st.

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The jumper has finally arrived for Rubio. Hes still just 27. Best days still ahead. 

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9 minutes ago, ayowaya said:

Why sit him in last 5 minutes?

 

they put him back in at around the 3 minute mark and sat him again when they rested the rest of the starters

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Just now, RafiBomb said:

 

they put him back in at around the 3 minute mark and sat him again when they rested the rest of the starters

As they should 

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so in his last two games he's 14/28 from the field and 8/15 from the 3pt line...

 

is it happening?

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1 minute ago, doomz said:

so in his last two games he's 14/28 from the field and 8/15 from the 3pt line...

 

is it happening?

 

He's done this before, usually at the start of other previous seasons too, IIRC. He's never been able to maintain it for a long period of time, though. I'll believe it when I see it. 

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He's done this the last 3 months of last season too which is the main reason why I drafted him. Injury is the only concern. He's just much more assertive and the confidence shows with each shot he takes. Having Hood back helps with their spacing which helps with Rubio's left side pull-up jumper and penetration.

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2 hours ago, absknicks said:

 

He's done this before, usually at the start of other previous seasons too, IIRC. He's never been able to maintain it for a long period of time, though. I'll believe it when I see it. 

 

He did it post ASB last year.  Hence why his ADP was higher this year.  The Jazz also aren't necessarily loaded with perimeter options.  There's a reason he took 8 3 attempts last night.  This is his second time this year taking 8 attempts from behind the arc.  Last year he only did that once through the full season.  

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