dboong

Nerlens Noel 2017-2018 Season Outlook

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So im really confused with Noel. I feel as though i will still draft him just for his potential but still have no idea where he will be and what competition he will have.

He recently shut down the Mavs offer of (reportedly) $17.5 mil per year. ( unsure if he is worth near that yet) and has also changed agents in the search for a Max Deal which he shouldnt get. 

Doesnt seem like too many people are biting, My prediction is he will still be at the mavs for possibly less than 17.5 per year but will be the Starting centre and Defensive Beast.

Around 12,9,2,1.5,1.5 stat line and earn his money.

 

But until he gets signed somehwere its going to be a bit of a guessing game 

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52 minutes ago, hoopking said:

im not really sure why he turned down that 17mil in the first place 

because he truly believes he is worth a max contract of 5 years minimum of 110 mil

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He's not a great rebounder. So, if you play him with, say Dirk and Barnes, who both aren't great rebounders either, who's gonna do that work? Has me thinking Dwight Powell, eventhough his upside isn't what we may have expected two years ago, might see more minutes than initially anticipated. 

DFS is a good rebounder as well, and a good defender. So thats another guy who could profit from this situation. Or we'll see DSJ just do his best Westbrook imitation. 

Edited by PuzzBeterson

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I imagine his contract situation will workout before October. 

 

He was a little overhyped after his one excellent season, people had him in the 2nd round.  Now that the market has cooled off on him, I think now is a perfect time to buy.  He ranked 65th in 9 cat last season on only 20 MPG!! That's basically his floor.  I predict him at around 10 ppg/8 rpg with 3 combined stocks.  He's also gotten his efficiency up and could approach 60 FG%/70 FT% on only 1.5 TO.  His rebounding isn't great, but his stocks are up there with Gobert/Draymond.  Additionally, he might be more efficient than Gobert from the line.  I wouldn't be surprised to see him return 4th round value, meaning if you can get him in the 5th or later I think it's a wise investment. 

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15 minutes ago, RedDogNamedClippers said:

So who drafting Noel! Contract year lol.

The question is not if but when?  Round 6?

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How much would you pay for him in an auction?  I think I would be willing to pay up to $20 for him, depending on how much I had left and needs etc.  He went for  $14 in the mock I did since his contract was signed.  I think that's fair.  I consider his floor to be around 60th, other players in the same range typically cost 15-20, so at $14 that seems like good value with plenty of upside.

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A guy in our keeper league has kept randle and chriss instead of noel. 7 keepers.. I will be trying to get him first round (round 8) for sure 

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Noel when getting playing time back with 76ers was a good fantasy C and no idea what happens to his playing time with Mavs. I hope he is motivate to play the best basketball of his life this year because he turn down that 17 mils contract and all in on his performance this yr to get a better contract. Noel is kinda of risky but if he falls to 5th around i will draft him.

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Turning down 70/4? That is as stupid as it gets. He really thinks he can find 100? And if he does (which is a huge if) is it worth the risk? It's not like they underestimated him with some 40/4 s--- and so on. Damn the guy has huge confidence or stupid people around him, probably both. Money dried up fast kid, sorry you missed your chance.

Edited by RipCity0

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noel in the 6th round for me. in that range, i would gladly take him if capela is gone. he has finished in the 60s on avg in the 3yrs hes in the league per BBM. mavs would surely give him the minutes this coming season compared to last. he will be playing for a contract. il be surprised if he doesnt avg at least 28min. can see him getting 11pts 8reb 1.5stl 1.5blk.

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Noel can't be traded so Dallas is stuck with him. on one hand why play him at all since he is walking anyway. On the other hand ride him hard since he is walking anyway. Monroe was the only other guy who did the QO thing and moneywise worked out great for him. I think Dallas plays him as they normally would since they lack size without him. Dallas should have given him a 10 mill 1 year contract as a kind of peace offering. Then they coulda traded him.

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9 hours ago, Kenny Mack said:

noel in the 6th round for me. in that range, i would gladly take him if capela is gone. he has finished in the 60s on avg in the 3yrs hes in the league per BBM. mavs would surely give him the minutes this coming season compared to last. he will be playing for a contract. il be surprised if he doesnt avg at least 28min. can see him getting 11pts 8reb 1.5stl 1.5blk.

 

I think the 6th might be a little too high, but I get it.  I think he's ranked out of the top 100 on ESPN, so he's been slipping in the mocks I've done so far.  I think I'm jaded since the last time I owned Noel he killed my FT (50%), TO (2.4/game), and points.  If you need to shore up stocks then absolutely yes reach for him around the 6th or 7th b/c there's no one else that can give you anywhere close to his stocks at that point in the draft (maybe Favors in the late rounds comes close).  Oh yeah and pray for playing time cuz that's not guaranteed either, I mean if he only gets 20 or so minutes/game then he's treading close to waiver wire material (albeit still holding some 1/1 value).  If he gets closer to 30 minutes then he's top 40/50 and likely flirting with 3-3.5+ stocks/game.  I don't think that happens.

Edited by hipriest69

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what i mean is id start looking for noel in the 6th if i need a big at that point. u can actually can make a point to pick him over capela, but id rather have capela coz of the uncertainty of noels situation. though, id still be surprised if he doesnt get upward of 25min with dallas

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Does the 1 year contract make it more likely that the MAVS will want to play him more or less? That's my question.

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21 hours ago, hipriest69 said:

 

I think the 6th might be a little too high, but I get it.  I think he's ranked out of the top 100 on ESPN, so he's been slipping in the mocks I've done so far.  I think I'm jaded since the last time I owned Noel he killed my FT (50%), TO (2.4/game), and points.  If you need to shore up stocks then absolutely yes reach for him around the 6th or 7th b/c there's no one else that can give you anywhere close to his stocks at that point in the draft (maybe Favors in the late rounds comes close).  Oh yeah and pray for playing time cuz that's not guaranteed either, I mean if he only gets 20 or so minutes/game then he's treading close to waiver wire material (albeit still holding some 1/1 value).  If he gets closer to 30 minutes then he's top 40/50 and likely flirting with 3-3.5+ stocks/game.  I don't think that happens.

 

I'm in around Round 6 and I don't even think it's a reach.
I might be minsinterpreting you, but he only got 20.5 mpg last season and he was still ranked #65 per BBM. Another year in a similar situation and his production should climb, especially if you give expected improvements from age (still only 23). To me that means improvement on last season, regardless of a minutes increase but ESPECIALLY if you expect a minutes increase, and he's shown flashes of fantasy upside in prior seasons, not just the last one.

You're absolutely right it's about the stocks that you can find in that area of the draft, and Nowitzki is older and no other Cs on that roster came close to his production, even in 20 mpg. TOs are a concern, and he's not winning you points, I'm not sure if his FT% warrants a punt, but the stocks and his upside shouldn't be underestimated. 

People can definitely disagree, but I put him right under Dieng/J-Val, and ahead of most of Capela/Steven Adams. 

I can't see him doing worse than Round 6, and I wouldn't even fault anyone who reaches in Round 5 depending on what Cs are left. 

Edited by s-kayos
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7 hours ago, s-kayos said:

 

 

I'm in around Round 6 and I don't even think it's a reach.
I might be minsinterpreting you, but he only got 20.5 mpg last season and he was still ranked #65 per BBM. Another year in a similar situation and his production should climb, especially if you give expected improvements from age (still only 23). To me that means improvement on last season, regardless of a minutes increase but ESPECIALLY if you expect a minutes increase, and he's shown flashes of fantasy upside in prior seasons, not just the last one.

You're absolutely right it's about the stocks that you can find in that area of the draft, and Nowitzki is older and no other Cs on that roster came close to his production, even in 20 mpg. TOs are a concern, and he's not winning you points, I'm not sure if his FT% warrants a punt, but the stocks and his upside shouldn't be underestimated. 

People can definitely disagree, but I put him right under Dieng/J-Val, and ahead of most of Capela/Steven Adams. 

I can't see him doing worse than Round 6, and I wouldn't even fault anyone who reaches in Round 5 depending on what Cs are left. 

I agree with everything except that I put him ahead of Dieng and Valanciunas.  I rode the Dieng train longer than almost anyone because he is so metrics friendly; however, I've cooled off on him.  He passes both the eye test (for me at least) and the metrics test but for some reason he's never taken his game to the next level.  If he was going to do so it would have been last year when he didn't have to compete with Taj for minutes, with a coach who tends to give his starters plenty of minutes, and he didn't really improve.  I thought he was capable of developing a three point shot, but he hasn't really shot from the outside, even if he is capable.  He is still an efficient 10/8/1/1 guy, which has value, but his upside is capped.  Val is similar just produces fewer steals.  Noel has the potential for more stocks than either of them and his FG% was better than them last year too.  Noel still has the time to develop into a metrics friendly player as he shot almost 60/70 last season and has show signs of improving from the line.  His upside is much higher too.  This season Noel is more of a 5/6 rounder and Dieng/Val are 6/7 rounders for me.  

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I have high hopes for capela and should lift his averages again this year about from his god awful FT% haha. noel has a higher ceiling  and a lot more potential but could be seen as a risk . 

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