Crazycanto

Trevor Ariza 2017-2018 season outlook

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What do we think of Ariza this season? Your prototypical 3&D guy with elite steals, above average 3's, and disappointing FG%. 

 

How would a potential Melo trade affect his value? Either whether he stays a starter, or whether he's sent back as part of the deal? 

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His numbers from the past 3 seasons in Houston are nearly identical, so I would expect more of the same wall-flowerness.

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Chris Paul coming to Houston won't hurt him. His biggest downside at this point is probably the fact that he's 32 and his scoring and averages have been trending downward. He's maintained good ranks through his elite steal numbers, which hopefully he maintains. His upside is that his minutes are probably safe and maybe Paul putts him in a better position to score more efficiently,  

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5 minutes ago, Philzilla said:

Chris Paul coming to Houston won't hurt him. His biggest downside at this point is probably the fact that he's 32 and his scoring and averages have been trending downward. He's maintained good ranks through his elite steal numbers, which hopefully he maintains. His upside is that his minutes are probably safe and maybe Paul putts him in a better position to score more efficiently,  

 

I don't think "trending downward" is accurate.  Check below.

I also disagree that CP3 will affect his FG% much.  He pretty much shoots 3s created by another player.  I believe he is what he is on those, and so I don't see his percentages increasing. If anything, he might shoot even fewer 2s and we could see a drop.

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Look at his game log: sometimes he disappears for two weeks. Games like 3/5/3 1stl and 1 of 10 FG are seen very often. Even steals are not consistent: from 12 Dec to 2 Jan (12 games) average 2,7 stl, from 5th to 21st January (11 games) average 0,8 stl. I can find better players at round 5, when he is usually drafted.

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His scoring will go down I believe. Reason. Houston replaced a defensive specialist in PatBev with a natural scoring PG like Chris Paul. That eats up points and touches from Ariza. I will admit that he will probably get more open looks so I'm hoping for an increase in efficiency, an increase in defensive stats since their wing defense is not top notch now with slightly less points maybe around 10.5.

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last season the "playoff ariza" showed up early.  come the later stages of the season, his stats are meh.  hopefully with tucker in tow (roughly plays the same position) doesn't hurt him that much.

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I don't think his dry spells are specific to him but are rather inherent to anyone who relies almost exclusively on the 3.  He gets 7.2 ppg out of 12 from the three and not even Stephen Curry gets the majority of his points from the 3. When he's hot he will put up top 20 value and when he's not he will literally be below replacement level.  That's just the nature of three point specialists.  It's much the same with steals.  That being said show me someone else whom you can get for under 20 auction dollars who gets 2.4 threes and 2 spg.  I predict his value  be the same as it's always been.  

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The problem is that Ariza has some superstars around him. I saw some Rockets play-off games and for a certain amount of time I just didn't see him (because I looked games from stream, picture was also blurry:D). I can't predict is CP3 addition for him good or not, but certainly Ariza is one of the lower usage guys in the league.

 

Edited by apatas

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5 hours ago, apatas said:

The problem is that Ariza has some superstars around him. I saw some Rockets play-off games and for a certain amount of time I just didn't see him (because I looked games from stream, picture was also blurry:D). I can't predict is CP3 addition for him good or not, but certainly Ariza is one of the lower usage guys in the league.

 

 

which is the opposite of a problem when he has superstars around him. Ariza will be Ariza.

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Paul should help him get more open looks. I wondering if he can be a 42%+ guys with 2.5 3PTM, 2 steals. He's so steady in that system that is the second best offense in the league. 

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1 hour ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

 I wondering if he can be a 42%+ guys with 2.5 3PTM, 2 steals. He's so steady in that system that is the second best offense in the league. 

Will be tough to do considering his overall FG% and his 3PT% are basically the same :D

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3 minutes ago, StifleTower2 said:

Will be tough to do considering his overall FG% and his 3PT% are basically the same :D

The comment and thought would be that the addition of Paul will increase the quality of looks. We all know his defense will keep him on the floor. 

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13-14 WAS Ariza is possible (45% fg, 77 ft, 2.3 3PM and ~2spg) if he owns the corner this season.

 

if I can get him after the 60s (you never know), he can be a great ROI.

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He has top 40 potential in my eyes. There where will be next to no attention paid to him. CP3 and Harden will find him open all day long. I think that his fg% will go up, and his 3's will be even higher this year. He would be an absolute must have if it wasn't for the extreme threat of Melo getting dealt there. He would still be wide open and likely play 30+ mins at SF (his defense will be needed) but obviously his shot attempts would drop. If you get him outside the top 50 that risk is mitigated a tad, as he'd still rack up steals and still hit at least 1.5 3's per game. 

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5 hours ago, KuramaHiei said:

I'm not so crazy as to drop, but this definitely hurts me this week since it's only a 6 days week.

 

Same here. Deemnn

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I, like others, drafted Ariza at a premium with the news of the CP3 arrival. It looks like Eric Gordon is stealing all his mojo right now. Looks like we are going to have to be patient and wait till CP3 comes back.

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