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Nikola Jokic 2017-18 Season Outlook

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4 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

I personally am not bullish given his cost and valuation. I would not feel comfortable with Jokic as my centerpiece and foundation as a first rounder in a roto league. I just havent seen enough over an entire season to know for sure. I view LBJ, DMC, Wall and even Lillard and Irving as safer bets. I could potentially get excited about Jokic in the mid to late second round. I know I am certainly in the minority that is bearish on him...........


His percentages wont fall, he will shoot even more than 55% from the field - which makes him possibly the best FG anchor in the game, his 3s will go up as they are spreading the floor a lot (from what ive seen in preseason games), his rebounds might fall back around 9-10 per game, but the assists will be there. 

He may not average a steal or a block per game, but everywhere else the guy is pretty much elite. Thats too much to go in the 2nd round.

 

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12 minutes ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

 

Had pick #2 and had to grab Giannis since KD went first. Punting 3s, FT

 

It's a good strategy...

 

Although I think the weakness in punting 3s and FT is that 3's are the easiest category to come by and you can at least be competitive with a few late round/waiver pick ups.  Same with FT.  You can't draft Deandre, Whiteside, Gobert, Lebron, Howard, Drummond, Capela, etc all on the same team.  Meaning there will be other teams that own these players, as well as poor shooting guards and forwards that can tank their FT significantly.  Even with Giannis and another one of these players, you'll still be competitive in FT at least on a week to week basis.  Main point I think it might be foolish to outright punt 3's and FT just because you started with Giannis.     

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2 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

 

It's a good strategy...

 

Although I think the weakness in punting 3s and FT is that 3's are the easiest category to come by and you can at least be competitive with a few late round/waiver pick ups.  Same with FT.  You can't draft Deandre, Whiteside, Gobert, Lebron, Howard, Drummond, Capela, etc all on the same team.  Meaning there will be other teams that own these players, as well as poor shooting guards and forwards that can tank their FT significantly.  Even with Giannis and another one of these players, you'll still be competitive in FT at least on a week to week basis.  Main point I think it might be foolish to outright punt 3's and FT just because you started with Giannis.     

 

Giannis and Jokic as my first two picks really hurts me if I'm trying to compete in 3s..Didn't want to grab players for help in 2 categories. Was able to grab Nurkic, Drummond so FTs are out the window now.

 

I totally see what you're trying to say, instead of folding on those two categories automatically keep options open

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Ah you got Jokic that late!  Thats bananas.  

 

Probably want to go Payton or other PG with your next pick (5th pick)...Rubio if available.  Maybe Holliday or Oladipo.  Need steals.  

Edited by hipriest69

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3 minutes ago, hipriest69 said:

Ah you got Jokic that late!  Thats bananas.  

 

Probably want to go Payton or other PG with your next pick (5th pick)...Rubio if available.  Maybe Holliday or Oladipo.  Need steals.  

 

Payton was a player I definitely needed for this build and was lucky enough to snag him as one of my PGs, Conley, Brogdon, Collison are my 3 PGs

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3 hours ago, dekciw_1 said:


Its better to build around Jokic than Lebron.

Jokic has no significant weaknesses in fantasy and the guy will only improve. I think this year his FG% will go even higher and the guy will average at least something like 1.3 3s a game. 

Jokic had 57,6% FG last season? Easy bet: under at season 2017/18.

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There are a lot of similar type big men as Jokic that I'm seeing come available in round 3-4. I might rather take those guys later and get myself an elite PG or wing in the 1st two rounds of drafts. Obviously best pick available but if I have an option between say, CP3/Wall/Dame vs Jokic, I will probably take the guard.

 

Similar/poor-man's Jokic available in rounds 3-4: Marc Gasol, Al Horford, Paul Millsap, Blake griffin. I do admit that Jokic has more upside than these guys, because he's younger and is the center-piece of the offense.

 

However, I'd still feel better if I had one of these guys + a Dame/CP3/Wall vs say, Jokic + Teague/Dragic.

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8 hours ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

 

The rebounding & assist #s are elite, the %s are elite. He can even hit triples consistently. Only thing keeping him away is the sub 20point scoring and pedestrian defensive stats. With that being said, I think his scoring has a really good chance of going over 20ppg this season, but the defensive stats will leave us wanting more in that department. I kind of agree with you on having him as my 1st pick and centerpiece, doesn't give me as much confidence than boogie or LeBron to build off of. I would much rather have him fall to me in the 2nd round after I pick up KD or Davis.

Are we confident the coach isn't going to screw around with his minutes like he did last year? What if he benches Jokic and starts Faried? You want to make him a first round pick lol? As good as he was last year (and some pointed out here he may not be able to sustain that field goal percentage), he still only finished TWENTY in 9-cat leagues. 

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7 minutes ago, huskerfan5b said:

Are we confident the coach isn't going to screw around with his minutes like he did last year? What if he benches Jokic and starts Faried? You want to make him a first round pick lol? As good as he was last year (and some pointed out here he may not be able to sustain that field goal percentage), he still only finished TWENTY in 9-cat leagues. 

It just happened because of benching. During last three months he was 11th, which is probably right position for this season also.

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9 hours ago, THE_MAGIC_MAN said:

 

The rebounding & assist #s are elite, the %s are elite. He can even hit triples consistently. Only thing keeping him away is the sub 20point scoring and pedestrian defensive stats. With that being said, I think his scoring has a really good chance of going over 20ppg this season, but the defensive stats will leave us wanting more in that department. I kind of agree with you on having him as my 1st pick and centerpiece, doesn't give me as much confidence than boogie or LeBron to build off of. I would much rather have him fall to me in the 2nd round after I pick up KD or Davis.

Just listen to yourself saying rubbish, starting Faried over Jokic commands the death sentence in 48 states, you think Mike Malone wants to die? I kinda agreed that I wouldn't be over the moon if I had Jokic with my first pick, I'd much rather pair him with Durant or AD. He was under used in the beginning of last season because they were figuring out if Jusuf Nurkic or Nikola Jokic would be playing center since they both cannot co-exist on the floor at the same time. Until they benched Nurk and eventually traded him finally Jokic showed what he was capable with. And during a two week stretch in the latter end of the season his usage took a big spike and the #'s were like 23ppg 11rebounds 5assists 1stl 1blk 1triple on elite %s, that week showed his upside and that is why he's commanding a 1st or 2nd round selection.

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Drafted him at #9, for me was the best choice after the consensus top 8.

 

The guy i was contemplating taking at#9 instead ended up falling to me at #15 anyway so happy days (LeBron).

 

Hoping he can do for me this year what Giannis did for me last year.

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Will Jokic return value at #11 pick over Cousins even with Paul Millsap taking a lot of the touches?

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29 minutes ago, Boshiaw said:

Will Jokic return value at #11 pick over Cousins even with Paul Millsap taking a lot of the touches?

 

Galinario is not there anymore he had like a 20 usage rate. Milsap had 24 i think. i think it should be a wash honestly and milsap will defend better and pass better.

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2 hours ago, Boshiaw said:

Will Jokic return value at #11 pick over Cousins even with Paul Millsap taking a lot of the touches?

It's pretty close. Probably too close to call. 

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On 10/10/2017 at 1:04 PM, Code of Hammurabi said:

I personally am not bullish given his cost and valuation. I would not feel comfortable with Jokic as my centerpiece and foundation as a first rounder in a roto league. I just havent seen enough over an entire season to know for sure. I view LBJ, DMC, Wall and even Lillard and Irving as safer bets. I could potentially get excited about Jokic in the mid to late second round. I know I am certainly in the minority that is bearish on him...........

I'm in the same boat. I am finishing up my rankings and I just can't figure out the edge that Jokic provides in the late 1/early 2 range. I am talking 8 cat. I get the well rounded aspect of his game. I get the assists. But he doesn't move the needle in blocks, his FT volume isn't enough to make a big impact, and if you draft Jokic early you still need to address blocks desperately. I am struggling to make sense of the opportunity cost of drafting Jokic early. I guess it comes down to building with a balanced approach throughout or building with a category kill approach early. Interested to see where people are getting their blocks from drafting Jokic early.  

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Just now, thezing1 said:

I'm in the same boat. I am finishing up my rankings and I just can't figure out the edge that Jokic provides in the late 1/early 2 range. I am talking 8 cat. I get the well rounded aspect of his game. I get the assists. But he doesn't move the needle in blocks, his FT volume isn't enough to make a big impact, and if you draft Jokic early you still need to address blocks desperately. I am struggling to make sense of the opportunity cost of drafting Jokic early. I guess it comes down to building with a balanced approach throughout or building with a category kill approach early. Interested to see where people are getting their blocks from drafting Jokic early.  

Its fools gold in the first round. Buyer beware

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3 minutes ago, Code of Hammurabi said:

Its fools gold in the first round. Buyer beware

Agreed 100% but the hype train has been overdrive for more than a year now so don't expect anyone to listen. 

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I think he's more than capable of averaging 1 block/game, and will be close to 1/1/1.  IF he can get there, which I think is possible, then he's a no-brainer 1st rounder.  In keeper leagues he's even more tempting than Lebron and CP3, and more appealing than the older bigs in the 3rd and 4th rounds (assuming you'd pass on Jokic to take one of Millsap Horford, Gasol, Ibaka, Griffin, Love...).    

 

 

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had to take him at 13th pick in my 16-man league. 

kinda worried now cause he does not have the "superstar" tag as my first pick of my team

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5 hours ago, t0087669 said:

had to take him at 13th pick in my 16-man league. 

kinda worried now cause he does not have the "superstar" tag as my first pick of my team

What is done is done, but for future drafts I would try to get away from the "had to take him" mentality. You didn't have to do anything. You have/had the ability to make projections, rankings, and stick to them.  You can organize where there is no guess work and no emotion swing when you "hope" someone falls to you and you get sniped or you get that feeling of "well, I have to take this guy that fell to me". 

 

I am sure there will be points, many points, where you are thrilled with your pick. I hope you have fun this year, you got blocks at good times in your draft, and you are competitive. I do not mean to be a downer, just trying to point something out that you can remember in the future that has helped me over the years. 

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Fell to me at 16 in my 12 team H2H money leaguer... Had to snag him. 

Edited by lbjames6
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