Joel Embiid 2017-2018 Season Outlook

[Pirate 749]

Final year college:Stress fracture (back)

Rookie year: Broken bone in foot

2nd year: Re-broke the same bone in foot

Last season: Bone bruise in knee

                        Torn meniscus

 

I guess the good new is the foot isn't an issue anymore but what next?

 

Also do the Sixers hold him back or do they need to test if he can grind through an nba season proper.

 

They have 14 back to backs. 

 

 

[apatas 399]

I don't consider him before 5th round.

[Febonacci 26]

Embiid after the 5th Rd is highly unlikely. He has potential to put up the best numbers in the league. I'd say start of 4th Rd  would be a good place to target him.

[GrandGourou 198]

In my redraft league he will be drafted in the 2nd round for sure, he is a very popular player and target here in France 

[apatas 399]

50 games - over/under? That is why I don't draft him before 5th.

[Pirate 749]

I watched him a fair bit last year and he to me he looked 100% health wise. I torn meniscus can happen to anyone but with someone his size with the history it's hard to burn early 3rd pic. If he sits all back to backs his max games is 68. Then let's say he misses another 8 for niggling injuries that puts him at 60 as a guesstimate. 

[tongs 1,316]

Yeah we have to consider games played, but also just important is minutes per game

[PuzzBeterson 1,089]

Much like Yao, these guys have huge potential, but somehow give me the feeling their bofy can't carry the stress of both a huge body and the rigors of playing a sport at the highest level.

[Zsocca 87]

Just pick Holmes as an insurance and you will be okay. 

 

[HarmStrong 615]

Holmes doesn't make up for a wasted 3rd round pick. 

[Zsocca 87]

1 hour ago, HarmStrong said:

Holmes doesn't make up for a wasted 3rd round pick. 

 

True, but make up some crying trace around the forum and it's enough for my taste.

[StifleTower2 2,525]

If you're buying Holmes as insurance then that means you don't think Embiid will last.  If that's the case then just bet on Holmes and don't buy Embiid.  Cuffing works best when you're betting on two relatively inexpensive guys such as DAR/Lin, Schroeder/Bazemore/, Hood/Ingles hoping one of them busts out.  It doesn't work so much cuffing your 3rd round pick.  

Edited September 18, 2017 by StifleTower2

[Deathrow 77]

Embiid is one of my 5 keepers and I really hope I can get 60 games out of him.  When healthy he can put up top 5 numbers with ease.  I am also contemplating selling high should he start off strong and healthy first 20 games of the season. 

[BFLewis 3]

6 minutes ago, Deathrow said:

Embiid is one of my 5 keepers and I really hope I can get 60 games out of him.  When healthy he can put up top 5 numbers with ease.  I am also contemplating selling high should he start off strong and healthy first 20 games of the season. 

He is one of my 7 keepers. I normally don't like having injury prone players but I am in win now mode and traded IT for Embiid and Middleton before his injury was widely known.

[Deathrow 77]

4 minutes ago, BFLewis said:

He is one of my 7 keepers. I normally don't like having injury prone players but I am in win now mode and traded IT for Embiid and Middleton before his injury was widely known.

 

 

Neither do I but his ceiling is so high I just could not resist.  AD struggled with injuries first few years (I understand not same as Embiid) but he seems to be finally putting it together.  

[sya 744]

it depends on league settings

 

if you're allowed to adjust your line-ups daily, then he is worth taking the risk around mid round 3. but if the league setting is weekly line-up locks, it changes significantly.

 

Here's the problem with Embiid, I like the guy, hope he will succeed, but even if he can stay healthy for whole year, he is expected to play 30mpg only, and more importantly sit out back to backs, which gives him what 65-67 games at best if he stays injury free? And this is best case scenario.

 

Last year, there were people in here, who were saying they would draft Embiid as high as round 5/6, even already proclaiming he will be better than Towns, Jokic, KP. No doubt he has talent to be better than them, but health is the biggest concern. And why would you take a risk so early when there are many safer choices?

 

You can't win your league with good picks in first 3 rounds, but you can lose them with bad picks

[StarPig 6]

Yeah your 1 to 6  picks of guys should really be stable good players, guys you know will keep you in the loop of winning.  Your 7 to 12 are really the guys who make or break you. 

 

If embid does not play that much you are down to 1-5 guys that can keep you afloat. It's not worth the risk.

 

I would say if you were able to get Westbrook then possibly take the risk. But one thing you definitely don't want to do is draft embid and griffin on the same team lol. 

 

My two cents unless you get top 3 fantasy player don't risk. better to play is safe and pick someone like Myles Turner where I got him in the third round about when embid was picked. 

 

Head to head ten team league I'm in BTW. 

 

 

[thezing1 1,813]

On 9/17/2017 at 11:32 PM, tongs said:

Yeah we have to consider games played, but also just important is minutes per game

Embiid doesn't need many minutes to do work. Are you saying this in terms of factoring in an increase in minutes played per game, which will offset the rest on B2B? 

 

On 9/17/2017 at 4:17 AM, Pirate said:

I guess the good new is the foot isn't an issue anymore but what next?

 

Also do the Sixers hold him back or do they need to test if he can grind through an nba season proper.

 

It is extension time for Embiid. The training wheels are off. New regime, no longer have the luxury of rookie contracts...this team needs to find out if the pieces make sense on max or near max deals. Better to break a player in a contract year then baby them and have them break in year 1 of a new 4-5 year contract. 

 

On 9/17/2017 at 9:27 PM, apatas said:

50 games - over/under? That is why I don't draft him before 5th.

Having him in the 5th is basically having him on your do not draft list, which is totally fine. You don't see a risk/reward that makes sense in the early rounds. You/we will probably look back and say it was smart. It is almost like drafting rookies. The vast majority don't pay off. Occasionally they do. Embiid alone won't win you a championship if he stays healthy, you need a complete draft and have him pop off to win. If you don't think he stays healthy then just pass and look for upside at a different point in the draft because there will be upside throughout the draft. 

[CrypTviLL 796]

I'm a fan of Embiid. He is going for a projected $27 on Yahoo and usually ends up going for a touch north of $30. If you can get him for $27-$29, I think that is a buy. I don't think I would grab him in re-draft leagues as I think he will cost a late second or early third which there is other players on the board more proven at that time.

 

 

[sya 744]

It is also worrisome that until now 5-6 months post minor surgery, 76ers have yet to clear him for 5 on 5 activities a week before training camp. Some might think they are just being cautious, and if they are, then 76ers themselves must really believe Embiid is that fragile that they still refuse to clear him for full activities just a week before training camp.

[StifleTower2 2,525]

The other issue is that in 9 cat he is a punt TO big man.  He might be a really good pairing with Westbrook, Harden, etc. if he stays healthy.

[tongs 1,316]

37 minutes ago, sya said:

It is also worrisome that until now 5-6 months post minor surgery, 76ers have yet to clear him for 5 on 5 activities a week before training camp. Some might think they are just being cautious, and if they are, then 76ers themselves must really believe Embiid is that fragile that they still refuse to clear him for full activities just a week before training camp.

Yeah I was ready to throw down for him before the last RW blurb about 5 on 5.. Not so sure anymore. I'm willing to take the risk, but he can't even practice fully right now

[scouter1993 0]

I refuse to believe that this man won't see the floor during his contract year. As for picking him, it is basically a gamble whether he's going to be healthy or not. Great reward comes with great risk and that can easily make you a contender if it pay off. 

Edited September 21, 2017 by scouter1993

[jsquints 878]

I think he is going to have an amazing 60 games this season. I just can't imagine they won't shut him down toward the end.

[sya 744]

7 minutes ago, jsquints said:

I think he is going to have an amazing 60 games this season. I just can't imagine they won't shut him down toward the end.

so if he is going to play 60 games where do you draft him? definitely not round 3/4 material for me if that's the expectation of the majority, which I think is fair considering he has only played less than 40 games in 3 years, and 39 games last year where he was being branded as relatively healthy at least for his standards