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Joel Embiid 2017-2018 Season Outlook

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15 minutes ago, scouter1993 said:

I refuse to believe that this man won't see the floor during his contract year. As for picking him, it is basically a gamble whether he's going to be healthy or not. Great reward comes with great risk and that can easily make you a contender if it pay off. 

I think the issue here is when or what round you take the risk. because people are drafting him in round 3, which sounds crazy for me. For me it doesn't really matter if he ends up having a healthy year, because at round 3 you can have much safer choices of bigs available to draft.

 

I like this guy, in fact own him in a dynasty league, but people are once again riding the hype just as they did last year. If you want to draft him in round 6 sure take the chance, but we all know someone in your league will draft him much earlier than that, let him take the chance.

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5 minutes ago, sya said:

so if he is going to play 60 games where do you draft him? definitely not round 3/4 material for me if that's the expectation of the majority, which I think is fair considering he has only played less than 40 games in 3 years, and 39 games last year where he was being branded as relatively healthy at least for his standards

In head to head I wouldn't take him 3/4 because I think there is zero chance he is around during the playoffs. Id probably just steer clear. In Roto I'm personally ok with late 3rd.

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2 hours ago, sya said:

It is also worrisome that until now 5-6 months post minor surgery, 76ers have yet to clear him for 5 on 5 activities a week before training camp. Some might think they are just being cautious, and if they are, then 76ers themselves must really believe Embiid is that fragile that they still refuse to clear him for full activities just a week before training camp.

I feel like this is like football and preseason games. Why risk your starting QB's health in preseason....you know? If Embiid gets hurt in preseason that team and city will just deflate. 

1 hour ago, scouter1993 said:

I refuse to believe that this man won't see the floor during his contract year. As for picking him, it is basically a gamble whether he's going to be healthy or not. Great reward comes with great risk and that can easily make you a contender if it pay off. 

Great reward comes from taking calculated risk. Taking on risk without getting substantially or adequately compensated for it is stupid. 

 

Embiid just went 25 in my 8 cat draft. On a per game basis he was 21st last year. On a total basis he was 187th, just edging out Matthew Delvadova. Durant played 62 games and on a total basis was ranked 12th. Let's just say you pencil Embiid in for 62 games. If you get KD-esque production you are talking a borderline first that you are taking a round or round and a half later. And the downside is all the way down with the Matthew Delevadovas of the NBA. So the risk/reward proposition is basically a 10-15 higher ranked player with a downside of 150 lower....both of which are somewhat equally likely to occur. That sounds like a terrible reward for the risk. Today, I basically have Embiid on a do not draft list since he is not cracking my top 50. I would prefer to target risk with better and more likely rewards later in the draft. 

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There is an article few yrs ago from ESPN about NBA bigs who missed 60% of the games in their first 3 seasons most likely end up injury prone throughout their career or cut their career short. Unless embiid fall to 5th round which is very unlikely, i am not willing to take the risk because in first 4 rounds there are just too many good and less injury risk players who will give you more games and good stats also.

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It's a shame...I have the option to keep him or Kemba Walker as my 4th round pick in our keeper, but JSquints makes a huge point that his availability, even if healthy for 70 games, is probably not going to be there the last 2 weeks.  

 

I love rooting for this guy, and when on the court he's great...usage monster...but, I don't know if it's worth taking a guy in head to head that won't be there in the playoffs.

 

 

Edited by Elcamino

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12 Teams Roto - 8 categories.

 

I have picked Durant, Lowry and Mccolum would you go for Embiild in your pick in 4th round (48) ???

 

There are not any very good big men available. Ibaka, Vucevic and then Jordan and Drummong but I hate such players that destroy your FT line.

 

I was thinking either for Embiild/Ibaka/Vucevic    Covington/Porter

(it is an offline draft so there  are still 3 too chose and I am not 100% sure what they will pick but probably none of them a center since they already have).

 

Thanks

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7 minutes ago, paokmaniak said:

12 Teams Roto - 8 categories.

 

I have picked Durant, Lowry and Mccolum would you go for Embiild in your pick in 4th round (48) ???

 

There are not any very good big men available. Ibaka, Vucevic and then Jordan and Drummong but I hate such players that destroy your FT line.

 

I was thinking either for Embiild/Ibaka/Vucevic    Covington/Porter

(it is an offline draft so there  are still 3 too chose and I am not 100% sure what they will pick but probably none of them a center since they already have).

 

Thanks

Vucevic is safer choice but embiid has more upside

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On 9/20/2017 at 11:30 PM, jsquints said:

In head to head I wouldn't take him 3/4 because I think there is zero chance he is around during the playoffs. Id probably just steer clear. In Roto I'm personally ok with late 3rd.

 

I agree he has more value in roto due to availability.  He just can't stay healthy which is a shame because when he is on the court he is a great player.  I would only take a chance very late in a H2H draft but by then he will probably already be gone.  

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I just don't understand.  He has never played 800 min in a season at any level.  Hurt his back his Sr year in HS.  Missed a ton of time at KU and played ~650 min.  Has played 787 min in 3 NBA seasons and is not cleared to play 5v5 at this point.

 

If you take him in the 3rd rd and he gives you what you have gotten over the past 5 years your fantasy season is all but finished.

 

I mean feel free, especially in all my leagues. 

 

I know I won't be.

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Philly should be in playoff contention and will need their franchise big man to will them there in his contract year. Ultimate sell high.

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8 hours ago, HurricaneKid said:

I just don't understand.  He has never played 800 min in a season at any level.  Hurt his back his Sr year in HS.  Missed a ton of time at KU and played ~650 min.  Has played 787 min in 3 NBA seasons and is not cleared to play 5v5 at this point.

 

If you take him in the 3rd rd and he gives you what you have gotten over the past 5 years your fantasy season is all but finished.

 

I mean feel free, especially in all my leagues. 

 

I know I won't be.

He went 25 in my recent draft. 3RR. Someone took a Boogie/CP3 base and just went nuclear with Embiid at 25. I don't get it, but I really want it to continue throughout all of my drafts. 

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Can't decide it the upside is so tempting. Say he falls to round 6-7 on a 13 team 9 cat, do you take him? Looks like in this league I'm in nobody wants to pull the trigger. What round do you guys usually take his handcuff Holmes?

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7 hours ago, rain077 said:

Can't decide it the upside is so tempting. Say he falls to round 6-7 on a 13 team 9 cat, do you take him? Looks like in this league I'm in nobody wants to pull the trigger. What round do you guys usually take his handcuff Holmes?

 

LOL...what kind of league are you in?  Of course you take him.

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1 hour ago, jmoney23 said:

 

LOL...what kind of league are you in?  Of course you take him.

Haven't really drafted yet but this league's been really conservative for the past few years with these kind of situations, I'm guessing this is the case but I may be wrong. 

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On 9/20/2017 at 11:59 PM, Gorgeous George said:

To put things in perspective...  at this stage in his career Greg Oden had played more games.  Let that sink in.

 

What happened to that dude that was posting videos of every shot he ever took in practice before last season, even throwing things out like he'll be better than Tim Duncan...

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On 9/20/2017 at 11:59 PM, Gorgeous George said:

To put things in perspective...  at this stage in his career Greg Oden had played more games.  Let that sink in.

 

Misleading use of this idiom.

 

Oden was drafted and then:

(R) knee microfracture surgery 2007

Random foot injury (just two weeks)

(R) knee chipped patella (just three weeks, but obvious precursor for the following injury) 2009

(R) knee patella fracture 2009

(L) knee microfracture surgery + "setback" 2010 

(R) knee arthroscopic surgery 2010

(R) knee microfracture surgery 2012

 

Ya, he definitely pieced together a few games inbetween knee-by-knee desecration-by-surgeries 

 

Embiid: 

(R) foot surgery 2014

Embiid is drafted - team fully expects him to miss first season

(R) foot surgery slow to heal -- secondary surgery 2015

(R) knee meniscus tear 2017

 

It is definitely true that Oden has played more games, but that statement in a vacuum actually gives us zero perspective and mostly just a slanted gotch-ya stat. 

 

Sixers had zero expectations for him for first 1-2 years.

 

Last year's injury seems suspect at best. He was playing, then he was playing less, then he wasn't playing. diagnosed with vague "bone bruise" and had an elective meniscus tear surgery toward end of season. Not saying he wasn't injured, but Sixers tank definitely aided in his under usage.

 

The guy is definitely an injury risk, but to this point, he (and really no one) should be mentioned in the same breath has Oden.

 

Oden was literally a ticking time bomb for catastrophic knee injuries whenever he took the court. Not one knee, not a freak play, but both knees deteriorating in every significant way you can think of. 

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8 hours ago, MillenWasmyFavorite said:

 

Misleading use of this idiom.

 

Oden was drafted and then:

(R) knee microfracture surgery 2007

Random foot injury (just two weeks)

(R) knee chipped patella (just three weeks, but obvious precursor for the following injury) 2009

(R) knee patella fracture 2009

(L) knee microfracture surgery + "setback" 2010 

(R) knee arthroscopic surgery 2010

(R) knee microfracture surgery 2012

 

Ya, he definitely pieced together a few games inbetween knee-by-knee desecration-by-surgeries 

 

Embiid: 

(R) foot surgery 2014

Embiid is drafted - team fully expects him to miss first season

(R) foot surgery slow to heal -- secondary surgery 2015

(R) knee meniscus tear 2017

 

It is definitely true that Oden has played more games, but that statement in a vacuum actually gives us zero perspective and mostly just a slanted gotch-ya stat. 

 

Sixers had zero expectations for him for first 1-2 years.

 

Last year's injury seems suspect at best. He was playing, then he was playing less, then he wasn't playing. diagnosed with vague "bone bruise" and had an elective meniscus tear surgery toward end of season. Not saying he wasn't injured, but Sixers tank definitely aided in his under usage.

 

The guy is definitely an injury risk, but to this point, he (and really no one) should be mentioned in the same breath has Oden.

 

Oden was literally a ticking time bomb for catastrophic knee injuries whenever he took the court. Not one knee, not a freak play, but both knees deteriorating in every significant way you can think of. 

A big man with a 2 year foot injury and a meniscus tear (apart from oden's knee disaster it's the worst thing you can do these days as it just cause more and more wear and strain injuries whereas ACL is a full fix after a year - retearing the same one line Parker is a fluke. Most doctors say the reconstructed ACL is stronger than the natural one)...

I'm gonna leave that headache to someone else. Especially with his current draft value and massive TO issue that didn't dissipate over last season.  Good luck to him hope he can be a great player in the league,  but I want him to show that before I'm spending a 3rd or higher pick on him

Edited by Jake the snake

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How do you rate his in a dynasty league?  I got both Turner and Gobert as possible keepers, along with Embiid but something tells me giving this guy up is like giving up AD. Anyone feel the same way in keeper leagues?

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Depends if you think he will be ilgauskis or Oden. If he is able to play 8-10 years of fairly healthy basketball he is a top 10 dynasty selection. If he pts together even one full season he will be going in the top 5 the next year. 2 years and he will probably go #1. The talent is that good. 

 

All a matter of health. His talent is unmatched in the post in the current NBA. 

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On 9/29/2017 at 8:54 PM, MillenWasmyFavorite said:

 

Misleading use of this idiom.

 

.

.

 

Oden was literally a ticking time bomb

 

:ph34r:

  • Haha 2

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If 60 games and not long injury spells, but probable shut down during fantasy playoff - then he is maybe worth to be drafted at 5-6th round.

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I'm interested in buying in drafts but only if he falls past pick 40. There is so much risk, 

 

1) Health

2) Shut down later in season/fantasy playoffs 

3) Will his usage be the same with the integration of Ben Simmons. I think this hasnt been considered and vetted enough to be honest. They may be running an entire different offense. This may be even better for his per game production or worse. We just dont know. 

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Hate to be a dickfor, fellas, but if you're drawing a line in the sand on him around 40 or the 4th/5th round, just put him on your DND.  His ADP is 29 on Yahoo and I'd imagine around the same in ESPN.  You're not getting him after the third round.

 

I'd be willing to draft in the mid-late 20s, just haven't gotten the chance yet.

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On ‎29‎/‎09‎/‎2017 at 11:54 PM, MillenWasmyFavorite said:

 

Misleading use of this idiom.

 

Oden was drafted and then:

(R) knee microfracture surgery 2007

Random foot injury (just two weeks)

(R) knee chipped patella (just three weeks, but obvious precursor for the following injury) 2009

(R) knee patella fracture 2009

(L) knee microfracture surgery + "setback" 2010 

(R) knee arthroscopic surgery 2010

(R) knee microfracture surgery 2012

 

Ya, he definitely pieced together a few games inbetween knee-by-knee desecration-by-surgeries 

 

Embiid: 

(R) foot surgery 2014

Embiid is drafted - team fully expects him to miss first season

(R) foot surgery slow to heal -- secondary surgery 2015

(R) knee meniscus tear 2017

 

 I read you post and I basically still see red flags everywhere. Oden lasted 5 years. Embiid is at his third. Yeah he played less games but I can easily see how Embiid's legs may not be up to the rigors of playing consistently.

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