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Kawhi Leonard 2017-2018 Season Outlook

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4 minutes ago, Born_Slippy said:

The Spurs won't win games without Kawhi, it's that simple.

 

Murray (no comment)

Green (can't shoot to save himself)

Gay (coming off serious injury)

LMA (has never fit at the Spurs)

Gasol (DNP - OLD)

 

I can't see how anyone let alone a organization like the Spurs thinks that is a competitive team especially in the Western Conference.

 

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28 minutes ago, Born_Slippy said:

The Spurs won't win games without Kawhi, it's that simple.

 

Murray (no comment)

Green (can't shoot to save himself)

Gay (coming off serious injury)

LMA (has never fit at the Spurs)

Gasol (DNP - OLD)

 

I can't see how anyone let alone a organization like the Spurs thinks that is a competitive team especially in the Western Conference.

 

 

 

 

 

I don't think you know who the San Antonio Spurs are....

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I didn't finish my research but the original timetable for this injury back in 2012-13 was 1-2 weeks when he had it the first time. He missed about a month of the season in November of that year and into December. I just don't know whether there were other injuries that attributed to that time off. I don't think it is crazy to assume he plays less than 70 games this year which hurts from a first round pick. 

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Had to take him with the 8th pick. Probably won't see him for several weeks to start the season lol

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3 hours ago, Born_Slippy said:

The Spurs won't win games without Kawhi, it's that simple.

 

Murray (no comment)

Green (can't shoot to save himself)

Gay (coming off serious injury)

LMA (has never fit at the Spurs)

Gasol (DNP - OLD)

 

I can't see how anyone let alone a organization like the Spurs thinks that is a competitive team especially in the Western Conference.

 

 

 

 

 

 

You never played pickup ball? 5 slow white guys who can all shoot, pass, and set screens can still beat 5 more athletic guys who don't pass nor play defense

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Red flags all over the place... Avoiding like the plague. Good luck to y'all that thought this was all a facade. 

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My guess FWIW: He'll be back after Christmas 

 

No real reason for that other than all thezing1 said 

 

6 hours ago, thezing1 said:

 

I agree with caution, but I think we should be trying to figure out this puzzle a little more because the reward (Kawhi) is worth a lot.

 

So what do we know for sure....nothing. Literally nothing. 

So what can we learn from the past.

One, the Spurs don't really care about playoff seeding as much as they care about health and momentum into the playoffs. 

Two, the league has some anti-rest measures. I don't think this impacts Pop too much. But they will be watching. 

Three, the Spurs just don't care about the regular season. They are the team equivalent of Lebron.

Four, Kawhi doesn't have a bone break or ligament tear. Technically, how would the league know when tendinitis hits a player and they need to take a rest? 

 

We don't know much. Even speculating on the past, we don't know much. Personally, I think this is a way to shorten the season for Kawhi. So the question is how short do they make the season for him? I would tie this to winning. So I looked at their schedule. Here are the early games.

Minn, @ Chi, Tor, @ Mia, @ Orl, @ Ind, @ Bost, GS, Char, Phx, LAC, Milw, Chi, @ Dal, @ Minn, OKC, Atl, @ NOP, @ Char, Dal, Mem, @ Mem, @ OKC, Det, Mia, Bost, Phx, @ Dal.....and that gets you to mid-December. Their schedule is very tough in March and April, but it is soft to start the year. Even without Kawhi I think they win 60% of those games. 28 games and 9 are against bad teams with no chance of the playoffs. Then you have the Charlottes, Memphis, Miami, NOP of the league and I am putting them at 50/50 at least vs. them even without Kawhi. 

 

The more I look at this the more I think Pop shortens his season. How long is based on how long the team is competitive without him. The first 14 games seem like low priorities to get Kawhi active. 

 

But, he could be active opening day. I am worried enough by the soft schedule to push him well into the second round at this point. 

 

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42 minutes ago, Pharaoh said:

My guess FWIW: He'll be back after Christmas 

 

No real reason for that other than all thezing1 said 

 

 

The more I think about it the more likely it is to me that the Spurs shorten his season until the point they absolutely need him to get in the playoffs or they need to start to gel and get momentum into the playoffs. There little point to seeding in the West. Every round is going to be tough sledding and the difference between 2nd seed and 6th seed isn't really that big of a deal. At some point you are going to have to go through GS, with GS having home field advantage, so even being the 8 seed isn't bad because you face them presumably at full health before the grind of the playoffs wears on you after grueling series while the Warriors sweep their way through the rounds. Without more info I am passing in the top 20 and would consider in the 3rd, but will probably talk myself out of it. 8 cat roto league.  

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Pop's last tanking was to get Duncan 20 years ago, maybe Pop's gonna do it again. Spurs didn't add anything except for Gay but he's nowhere near enough to take them to GSW level. I know, they were leading by 20 in the first game against Warriors until Kawhi got injured but I really highly doubt they would've have won the series. They are older and not better than they were last year, Parker is injured, they lost Dedmon and Simmons, other teams got stronger. I mean, I still don't really believe Spurs are gonna tank but i am just saying, it is a possibility

Edited by GmGodine

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8 hours ago, GmGodine said:

Pop's last tanking was to get Duncan 20 years ago, maybe Pop's gonna do it again. Spurs didn't add anything except for Gay but he's nowhere near enough to take them to GSW level. I know, they were leading by 20 in the first game against Warriors until Kawhi got injured but I really highly doubt they would've have won the series. They are older and not better than they were last year, Parker is injured, they lost Dedmon and Simmons, other teams got stronger. I mean, I still don't really believe Spurs are gonna tank but i am just saying, it is a possibility

I believe you are thinking about this from the wrong angle. Last time the Spurs were at full health they were handing it to the Warriors. Then Zaza did his thing and Kawhi was taken out and they got smoked. The imprint in their minds isn't being so outmatched by the Warriors, it is wondering what could have been given full health. Why would you tank when the last time you were healthy you were handing it to the world champs? 

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29 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

I believe you are thinking about this from the wrong angle. Last time the Spurs were at full health they were handing it to the Warriors. Then Zaza did his thing and Kawhi was taken out and they got smoked. The imprint in their minds isn't being so outmatched by the Warriors, it is wondering what could have been given full health. Why would you tank when the last time you were healthy you were handing it to the world champs? 

 

This obsession with failure (tanking) in the NBA and amongst fans is a joke. Why I always have respect for teams like the Spurs, Griz, Raptors, and even OKC for giving it a go. People are obsessed with 76ers that have done NOTHING, repeat NOTHING. And they are going to have a salary cap crunch in a few years. Yet Spurs (and even warriors) prove you can be competitive and even win with culture, coaching, and scouting.

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10 minutes ago, Jake the snake said:

 

This obsession with failure (tanking) in the NBA and amongst fans is a joke. Why I always have respect for teams like the Spurs, Griz, Raptors, and even OKC for giving it a go. People are obsessed with 76ers that have done NOTHING, repeat NOTHING. And they are going to have a salary cap crunch in a few years. Yet Spurs (and even warriors) prove you can be competitive and even win with culture, coaching, and scouting.

I can't support this statement in full. I think the tank to get the top pick is a most definitely overblown, but the need to be in the lottery was critical for every single team you listed as an example of competitive teams you respect. Until there is a franchise tag to control talent a team develops I think being in the lottery is in the best interest of any team that doesn't have a high upside core. I agree on the tanking to get to the bottom 3 teams, that is annoying and disheartening to see, but being in the lottery is probably in every teams' best interest that doesn't have a core with upside. 

OKC: Westbrook, KD, Harden....they were the original Sixers and they hit on consecutive picks which allowed them a base to compete for a long time. They are only good because they were so bad for so many years. Sixers just dismantled a 8 seed in the East to rebuild....and that is like the 13th seed in the West these days.

SAS: Duncan was the foundation of everything. Kawhi was amazing and allowed them to not rebuild on the fly. They exploited the international talent before others were hip to it. But they also controlled all of their talent. 

GS: Draymond was great and all, but their entire offensive philosophy is based on Curry and Klay (and now KD) being the best shooters in league history. Because of them they evolved the game to be 3 point based. And Curry and Klay were lottery picks that they hit on. They needed to be bad for consecutive years before they had a base to be good now. Remember, Steph has 8 years under his belt....it took time for his GS teams to get good. If you respect the Warriors and what they built you need to extend judgement for at least 4 more years on the Sixers. 

Raptors: Derozan and JVal were lottery picks. Lowry took them over the top, but JV and mainly DD allow them to compete, but let's be real, they are like the 11th best team in the West.

Memphis: Their upside is one, maybe 2 rounds, and done in the playoffs. As a Sixer fan that had the Iggy led one and done core there is nothing exciting about playoff basketball when you know your team can't compete for the championship. Nothing. People cheer and say oh you are so gritty and tough, but you are locked in to mediocrity. Memphis' core is old with capped upside. They are delaying the inevitable instead of getting ahead of it, and they didn't gain anything to show for it except making a couple bucks from hosting a handful of home games. Their core is based on Pau and Conley hitting in the lottery. They leveraged Pau into Marc and retained Conley on an insane contract. Congrats....you are the new Iggy-led Sixers. 

 

Back to Kawhi...where are people at on him with no news heading into drafts. In 8 cat I don't think I am giving him a top 30 rank unless we get a timetable in the next 2 days. 

 

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You have a bad season is one thing and get a lottery pick or two out of it, but the repeated tanking to hoard picks is another. Its pathetic. goes against everything sport is meant to stand for. Trying to be the best you can. My whole point is OKC had every chance to let RWB go and chuck in the towel, respect to them for not doing and now look. Back to one of the best teams in the league. That is what I am talking about. The Raptors had the same chance but pursued being a good team. I'd much rather watch a good team going on playoff runs than a loser bunch tanking 5-6 years straight and I definitely know which I'd rather be a part of if I was a player.

 

And sorry you are just wrong about the raptors being the 11th best team in the west. Warriors, Spurs, OKC, Rockets sure, but they are competing with any other team in the West like they have every year when they've played them (last year - 2 win over Denver, 1 win over Houston, 2 wins over Portland, 1 win over Clippers, 2 wins over Utah). 

Edited by Jake the snake

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5 hours ago, Jake the snake said:

You have a bad season is one thing and get a lottery pick or two out of it, but the repeated tanking to hoard picks is another. Its pathetic. goes against everything sport is meant to stand for. Trying to be the best you can. My whole point is OKC had every chance to let RWB go and chuck in the towel, respect to them for not doing and now look. Back to one of the best teams in the league. That is what I am talking about. The Raptors had the same chance but pursued being a good team. I'd much rather watch a good team going on playoff runs than a loser bunch tanking 5-6 years straight and I definitely know which I'd rather be a part of if I was a player.

 

And sorry you are just wrong about the raptors being the 11th best team in the west. Warriors, Spurs, OKC, Rockets sure, but they are competing with any other team in the West like they have every year when they've played them (last year - 2 win over Denver, 1 win over Houston, 2 wins over Portland, 1 win over Clippers, 2 wins over Utah). 

Your beef isn't with the Sixers. 

They drafted Embiid and he missed 2 years with injury.

They drafted Saric and he missed 1 year with international restrictions. 

They drafted Simmons and he missed 1 year with injury.

They swapped Michael Carter Williams (remember him) for a lottery pick. Would you prefer they kept him and were left holding the bag?

They took the Kings for a ransom similar to what the Celtics did to the Nets. Would you prefer they maxed out on "Mozgov" contracts and tie their hands behind their back?

The Sixers have played their asses off for the past 3 years. They very rarely took a night off; they just were outgunned on talent. Not their fault that best player available in the recent drafts lost time to injury and were international. Again, the Sixers on the court have played hard. I am amazed they won 10 games with some of those rosters. If you think about context you should have nothing against the Sixers. Now that they are healthy they are putting their best foot forward (reference Reddick, Amir signings). 

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Just now, thezing1 said:

Your beef isn't with the Sixers. 

They drafted Embiid and he missed 2 years with injury.

They drafted Saric and he missed 1 year with international restrictions. 

They drafted Simmons and he missed 1 year with injury.

They swapped Michael Carter Williams (remember him) for a lottery pick. Would you prefer they kept him and were left holding the bag?

They took the Kings for a ransom similar to what the Celtics did to the Nets. Would you prefer they maxed out on "Mozgov" contracts and tie their hands behind their back?

The Sixers have played their asses off for the past 3 years. They very rarely took a night off; they just were outgunned on talent. Not their fault that best player available in the recent drafts lost time to injury and were international. Again, the Sixers on the court have played hard. I am amazed they won 10 games with some of those rosters. If you think about context you should have nothing against the Sixers. Now that they are healthy they are putting their best foot forward (reference Reddick, Amir signings). 

Great post and analysis 

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24 minutes ago, thezing1 said:

Your beef isn't with the Sixers. 

They drafted Embiid and he missed 2 years with injury.

They drafted Saric and he missed 1 year with international restrictions. 

They drafted Simmons and he missed 1 year with injury.

They swapped Michael Carter Williams (remember him) for a lottery pick. Would you prefer they kept him and were left holding the bag?

They took the Kings for a ransom similar to what the Celtics did to the Nets. Would you prefer they maxed out on "Mozgov" contracts and tie their hands behind their back?

The Sixers have played their asses off for the past 3 years. They very rarely took a night off; they just were outgunned on talent. Not their fault that best player available in the recent drafts lost time to injury and were international. Again, the Sixers on the court have played hard. I am amazed they won 10 games with some of those rosters. If you think about context you should have nothing against the Sixers. Now that they are healthy they are putting their best foot forward (reference Reddick, Amir signings). 

 

The players never tank. The players always play hard (for the most part). The tanking comes from management. They had cap space and could have brought in some medium ranged players that would have made the team more competitive (with or without a healthy Embid etc..), instead they opted to just run the kids out there knowing they weren't good enough to compete. So yeah, the players "rarely took a night off" but that wasn't where the tanking was coming from. 

The Sixers tanked, plain and simple.

With that said, if I was a sixers fan, I would be pleased with how management handled things. But lets not act like the Sixers did their best to win as many games as possible the last few years. They clearly did not. 

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While I respect the Spurs organization and team play, I believe they need Kawhi more than people want to believe.  In the past, the team had great depth and experience.  Not so much now.  Now they are a bunch of old guys who are hobbled by chronic health issues and declining skills.  Parker, Gino, and D. Green are on their last legs in the NBA.  Gasol is 37.  If Kawhi plays less than 60, the Spurs will struggle to get home court in the playoffs.  They can possibly win a first round series without home court but will struggle against the Wolves, Thunder and Warriors if they don't have home court.  Each win this year will be important in the quest to get beaten by the Warriors in the playoffs.

 

I don't think Spurs have it in their make up to "tank."  They play to win and let the chips fall where they may.

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51 minutes ago, wideopen21 said:

 

The players never tank. The players always play hard (for the most part). The tanking comes from management. They had cap space and could have brought in some medium ranged players that would have made the team more competitive (with or without a healthy Embid etc..), instead they opted to just run the kids out there knowing they weren't good enough to compete. So yeah, the players "rarely took a night off" but that wasn't where the tanking was coming from. 

The Sixers tanked, plain and simple.

With that said, if I was a sixers fan, I would be pleased with how management handled things. But lets not act like the Sixers did their best to win as many games as possible the last few years. They clearly did not. 

Great post and analysis... ?

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http://www.espn.com.au/nba/story/_/id/14763202/how-biometrics-turned-kawhi-leonard-star

 

An old article that may give some insight to what’s going on behind the scenes. The gist is: while rehabbing his ankle injury, the additional strain he put on his other leg caused the tendon injury - so they’re trying to balance the strength in both legs to avoid future problems caused by uneven load distribution

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