tonycpsu

2017 Losers Thread: The Agony of Defeat

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Since I'm not going to win any of my leagues this year, I thought it'd be nice to have a companion thread to the Celebration Thread, where those of us who came up short this season can discuss what went wrong and how we'll be adjusting our strategy heading into 2018.

 

I was in three leagues this year:

 

League 1: 10-team Dynasty Mixed Roto 5x5 - 2nd Place(-ish)

 

This is my "home" league.  I won last year, but I won't be repeating.  I'm in 2nd now, but trending in the wrong direction, with no chance at all to get 1st, and a slight chance the 3rd place guy will catch me in the final week.  I am certain I have the best roster in the league top-to-bottom, and wouldn't trade my team for the winner's team even if this were redraft, but he maximized his category positioning, and I didn't.

 

My biggest mistake was probably not doing enough "day trading" with waiver pickups.  I know riding the hot hand works in shallower leagues, but I held on to a few guys with track records (I'm looking at you, Matt Carpenter and Johnny Cueto) way too long, and that caused me to miss out on some guys like Tommy Pham, Eddie Rosario, and Charlie Morton who were way more than just flavors of the week.  I did hit on *some* major waiver gold -- we only have 2 NA spots for minor leaguers, and Bellinger was available in the preseason  so I dropped JP Crawford for him as my first waiver transaction.  I also hit on Hoskins and Merrifield on offense, Jimmy Nelson, Chase Anderson, Greg Holland, and Corey Knebel on the pitching side, and made favorable trades for Cruz, Ozuna, and Scherzer, among others.  But it wasn't enough.

 

Where I really got killed in this league was batting average -- I won it last year with the worst AVG in the league, so I really tried hard to improve there in the offseason and with in-season trades, but guys like Carpenter and Segura that I thought would be average assets didn't work out (Carp stunk all year, Segura forgot how to hit shortly after I acquired him.)  I traded a lot of my surplus power for average, but I'm still going to win HR and RBI by a mile, so I definitely left money on the table here.  I fell in love with power/speed plays like Souza and Broxton that hurt my average, and by the time I realized it, It was too late.

 

I think I'm really well-positioned for next year, but I'm definitely going to try to acquire a stone cold lock in the AVG column next season.

 

League 2: 15-team Redraft Mixed Roto 5x6 (HLD) - 2nd Place

 

This one's a wire-to-wire victory for the first place guy, who double-tapped starting pitching with Kershaw/Kluber, and took Stanton in the 3rd round.  In a deep league with only 2 SP slots and 3 flex P slots, and in a year where it was excruciatingly hard to find mid-rotation pitching, that was a master stroke.  I went heavy on SP as well, taking MadBum in the 1st, but took Bogaerts in the 2nd, going against my usual strategy of position scarcity plays early.  My next picks were Murphy, Schwarber (Yahoo, so catcher-eligible), Khris Davis, and Andrew Miller (holds league.)  Some good, some bad, but this was a basement-dwelling team coming out of the draft.

 

MadBum's injury forced me to make some really aggressive trades, and most of them worked out, which is why I'm finishing the year a distant 2nd instead of toward the back of the pack.  Alex Wood, Carlos Martinez, and Aaron Nola all helped me recover on the SP side.

 

I really don't know what else I could have done in this league -- the league was basically won at the draft table, which is something I've never seen.  He had an aggressive pitcher-pitcher strategy, and he pieced things together on offense.  I will definitely think about the merits of this strategy in the offseason.

 

League 3: 12-team Redraft Mixed Roto 5x5 - ~3rd to ~5th Place

 

This one's still sort of competitive, but the top 2 slots look like they're locked up to me.  I had a very aggressive draft strategy in this league.  It's the first 3 OF league I've ever played in that was shallower than 15 teams, so my idea was to fade OF and go heavy on IF and SP.  Early picks were Bryant, Votto, Kluber, CarGo, Jansen, Carpenter, CarMart.  I knew that CarGo was going to be a below-average OF1, but I grabbed JD Martinez in the 11th round, which more than made up for whiffing on CarGo.  I also grabbed Judge off the wire, so my OF ended up being pretty elite for a league with only 36 starting OF.

 

My problem in this league was, once again, not being more aggressive with disappointing players.  I held CarGo past the ASB, which was way too long.  I kept trying to trade him but nobody was biting, and holding him kept me from improving at other positions.

 

I also didn't try hard enough on saves.  Jansen was great, of course, but Familia was my RP2 out of the draft, and that ended poorly.  I hit on Rivero and muddled through with some bottom-tier closers who ended up losing their gigs, but it was too little, too late.

 

I also neglected the RBI column in this league, thinking as long as I was hitting for average and power, the RBIs would come.  They didn't.  I'm 2nd in HR and 4th in AVG, but 7th in RBI.  It's a hard column to chase, but I need to pay more attention to the team context of my power / contact hitters to ensure they're collecting RBIs.

 

This league has some of the stingiest most risk-averse trading partners, so I wasn't able to get anything remotely fair via trade, but I still should have moved on from some players quicker than I did, even if it meant "losing" the trade.  There aren't any offers that were made that I'd take with the benefit of hindsight, but I probably could have worked something where the other party won on paper but I'd improve in the areas I needed to.  Definitely something I'll think about for 2018.

 

 

 

 

One thing I'd like to do next year is play in a couple more leagues -- perhaps five total -- just to get a better feel for the trade and waiver markets.  It's sometimes hard to know how to value my own players, so seeing what others are doing and who's being left on the wire might help me move on faster from players who aren't going to get picked up.

 

So...  Anyone else who came up short this year have any lessons learned to share with the community?

 

 

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Looks like I’ll finish 3rd in my keeper league after back-to-back championships. I can point to two main reasons-

1) Thought I was set with my middle keepers of Villar, Story, & Bogaerts. They absolutely killed me. I even built in regression, and projected roughly 65 HR/65 SB combined. They currently combined have 42 HR/45 SB, and none of the 3 are still on my team. I hung on WAY too long before finally dumping/trading. 

2) Not having any pitcher keepers (cut Carrasco last minute due to preseason elbow concerns), I had to piece together a competing staff. I am generally pretty good at finding value, and wasn’t too worried, considering my great offensive players (lol). So I started my staff with RHill, Maeda, Lackey, Odorizzi. Even though Hill finally came around, they all absolutely killed me in the standings (we use K/BB). This disaster of a staff forced me to trade offense for SP, and I was just never able to get my team rolling. 

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Won the ship last year in a keeper league. Just got knocked off last night. Made a couple of poor streaming decisions this past week which is what really cost me- Doug Fister being the biggest. I knew it was a bad idea since he's been bad for going on 3 years now but I sort of convinced myself that it was a good idea because he had 2 starts and he had shown some success the past couple weeks. A good reminder to everyone that if your'e facing a tough decision always trust the larger sample size! Overall it was very much a down year for this team although it finished in 1st. Mookie had a down year, Corey Seager tailed off a lot to finish the year and Trea missed a big chunk of the season and I had to cling on to Thor all year.  My pitching last year was much better last year too had a full year of Thor and Jose (RIP I can't believe its been one year ago today still makes me sad thinking about it)  Anyway this week we battle for 3rd and make some tough keeper decisions - thats always the most fun part IMO

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44 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

1) Thought I was set with my middle keepers of Villar, Story, & Bogaerts. They absolutely killed me. I even built in regression, and projected roughly 65 HR/65 SB combined. They currently combined have 42 HR/45 SB, and none of the 3 are still on my team. I hung on WAY too long before finally dumping/trading. 


How many keepers did you have in total?  I have another post I'm working on where I'm going to speculate about some of the position scarcity dynamics in 2018 drafts, and one thing that has become absolutely clear to me is that the SS position was way overdrafted this year.  I know this isn't breaking news, and I'm not saying that's what happened with you -- obviously there's a speed / average angle there as well, and maybe you didn't have any other keepers in the same tier as those guys, but I feel like the fantasy market overvalues SS eligibility way too much, and has for a while now.  I was saying this a lot last year, but then Story and Villar happened so I looked sort of stupid.  Then this year I figured fine, I'll take Bogaerts, and... yeah, that certainly didn't work out.  Should have stuck to my guns on that one.

 

Obviously one or two guys not returning value isn't a trend, but even a guy like Lindor, who' been amazing at SS, is only around the 21st best bat on the player rater.  I get that the Lindor owner gets a big boost compared to someone who had to roll with Nunez Russell or Baez at the position, but those  guys probably lucked into pop-up SS plays like Andrus, Taylor, Simmons, Marwin, and Didi while the Bogaerts, Story, etc. owners were waiting for a return to elite production that never happened, and they burned a high draft pick that could have gone to a top 10-20 overall bat.  If you count the risk and the reward of going with a high-end SS, I think it's a net negative in most cases.

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I traded Stanton on June 28th for Dallas Keuchel. I turned down a trade at the beginning of the season for Chris Sale.

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8 minutes ago, Bravesfan155 said:

I traded Stanton on June 28th for Dallas Keuchel. I turned down a trade at the beginning of the season for Chris Sale.

Ouch. I feel the pain. We’ve all been there.

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I made 10 trades in my 10-team dynasty league.  My biggest wins were:

 

Wil Myers, Rich Hill for Daniel Murphy, Andrew Miller

Quintana, Velasquez for get Ozuna, CarMart

Conforto, Arrieta for Scherzer

 

Lowlights were:

Duffy for Gyorko

Domingo Santana for Estrada

 

I felt *really* good about Khrush, Bour, Salazar for Segura, Samardzija, and Gio, but Segura just plain couldn't hit for most of the 2nd half.  I don't think I really got destroyed with any of these deals, but I kind of wish I'd been more aggressive in the market.  The dynasty aspect can force you to be a bit more risk-averse, but in "win now" mode, I should have probably been willing to cash in blue chip dynasty assets like Ozuna and/or Bellinger to push me over the finish line.  Thought I could keep those guys *and* win, but it didn't work out.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

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23 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

I made 10 trades in my 10-team dynasty league.  My biggest wins were:

 

Wil Myers, Rich Hill for Daniel Murphy, Andrew Miller

Quintana, Velasquez for get Ozuna, CarMart

Conforto, Arrieta for Scherzer

 

Lowlights were:

Duffy for Gyorko

Domingo Santana for Estrada

 

I felt *really* good about Khrush, Bour, Salazar for Segura, Samardzija, and Gio, but Segura just plain couldn't hit for most of the 2nd half.  I don't think I really got destroyed with any of these deals, but I kind of wish I'd been more aggressive in the market.  The dynasty aspect can force you to be a bit more risk-averse, but in "win now" mode, I should have probably been willing to cash in blue chip dynasty assets like Ozuna and/or Bellinger to push me over the finish line.  Thought I could keep those guys *and* win, but it didn't work out.  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

was this in beginning of season when he had that hot series at Coors? Just wondering because there's a guy in my league who's owned Myers for last 2 seasons and after he has a giant series at Coors always tries to make ridiculous trades with him

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13 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

was this in beginning of season when he had that hot series at Coors?

 

March 8th -- well before the season started.  I loved what Myers did last year but didn't think the steals were going to be there the way they were in 2016.  He'll only finish a few bags short, but the AVG has been even worse than last year, and the R/RBI will be way off as well.  So basically I sold on him for the wrong reasons, but it worked out.  And when you're getting a bona fide elite bat like Murphy back, you don't worry so much about the process.  Just wish I could have sold him before he showed signs of fatigue.

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Been in 1st in roto since early June. Lost 7 points combined in ERA/WHIP over the last week and now 3 points out of first.  Have a chance of getting back into it but not looking good. Hoping the fantasy gods can do something for me

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This was my first year ever doing fantasy baseball, and I started off with a bang. Was locked into 2nd place since early April in my 10 team points-based yahoo league. Starting in early August, my team went through a terrible draught and I was unable to recover. Looks like I am going to finish the league in 5th place most likely. Despite having Kershaw, Carrasco, Santana, Jansen and Hendricks, my team faltered at the 3/4 mark of the season. 

 

Holding onto the Dodger-heavy infield of Taylor, Seager, and Turner while the Dodgers were going through that heavy slump damaged me a lot. I deeply regret dropping Adam Jones, Wilson Contreras, and Jonathan Schoop in May and June. Also held onto CarGo too long like another dude up above had done, which hurt me.

 

I did however make good waiver wire pickups by getting Merrifield, Hoskins, Eduardo Nunez, and Olson. But it wasn't enough. Going into next season I will be more careful to not drop players that have good track records despite the fact that they may be going through rough patches mid-season. Gotta trust my instincts. 

Edited by Lightning Bat

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For a first time player, I think I've got a great handle on the game and I can't wait for next year. The main reason I joined is because I've moved away from my home town of Cincy and there's hardly a reason to follow that club right now. I can honestly say I could hold an hour+ long conversation with a fan from any team after this season haha. 

 

I came in third, which I'm okay with. Shoutouts to deGrom, Gio, Godley, J Turner, Zimm, K Davis, and Pham + Martinez + DeJong post ASB.

 

MVP - Blackmon, Elvis Andrus, and Rivero

 

Tanaka and CarGo had me beyond puzzled each week and of course CarGo came back for revenge come playoffs well after I dropped him. 

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Oh, one *huge* mistake I made this year in my dynasty league was not paying enough attention to pitcher wins.  Obviously wins are a fluky stat, and the conventional wisdom says it's foolish to try to project wins when you're drafting, but they still matter.  I was lagging in the W column, and initially I thought it was just because the teams ahead of me had more innings, but it was more than that, and by the time I realized it, the cost of catching up in the W column was too great in terms of its affect on my ratios.

 

Streaming for wins at the end of the season usually doesn't work -- you have to go out there and get good (but not necessarily great) pitchers on good teams in June or July, not August or September, so you can play matchups more with them and not be forced to start them in bad spots.  Plus the really good pitchers on playoff teams begin to lose innings.  Next year I'm going to try to be well ahead of the innings pitched pace in August so I don't have to play this game of catching up in innings/wins again.

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One of the mistakes I made was that in my 14 team league, with 11 keepers, I had 3-4 really solid ones I felt good about: Correa, Sale, Realmuto and a few others.  Sale was semi expensive but still a value.  Somewhere in maybe doing my prep over the winter I convinced myself that I didnt have enough keepers, which in an 11-keeper league, is kind of an issue.  

 

* I sent some future ML picks, etc for another expensive P Kershaw - so I had Kershaw and Sale going into the year, I thought would be a devastating 1-2 and really carry the staff.  At some point, I thought "I cant keep them both, cant afford it" so I dealt Sale for a cheap Joc Pederson and ML pick.  Joc obviously disappointed.  Probably should have never dealt for CK in the first place.  

 

* Still short keepers, I decided to offer Correa, got back 3 guys I was really felt good about last offseason all for very cheap prices: Maeda, Addison Russell and Carlos Santana.  Maeda was bad early, and I ended up dropping him for Alex Wood, with Villar and Diaz also on the cheap at SS, I dealt Russell for PIscotty, who I thought with Pederson and Piscotty I was building a young cheap OF with upside.  

 

* The league was at 14-teams going into the offseason and two owners dropped late in the game, this also hurt as I probably would not of made the deals I made in a 12-teamer as there is more value in the auction. 

 

* Going into the auction, I had a plan I felt like my franchise lacked for the future and that I should use My 5th OF on Bellinger and one of my P spots on Honeywell, two of the top prospects who were not owned by one of our franchises as ML, not sure if it was the beers or what, but after 4 hours of auction time, I ended up with value vets in those spots, Hunter Pence and Matt harvey.  Thanks boys!!!

 

 

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On 9/25/2017 at 7:29 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

Ouch. I feel the pain. We’ve all been there.

 

Just hit the most homers in a season since Ryan Howard in 2006. Yeah, that seems about right. Here's my choice of music tonight

 

 

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Lost Harper, Freeman, T. Turner, J. Turner, and Syndergaard for significant amounts of time. Had them all on the same team. Surprised I still finished third.

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I'm going to have a hard time getting over one of my 5x5 roto leagues. Dominated all season...had a double-digit lead for 5/6 months...lead fluctuated between 15-18 most of the season. Then in August I started to notice a slight slippage. Down to 12pts...then down to 10...up to 11...down to 9. Then September hit, and the slide continued. My lead deteriorated to single-digits...then 6pts...then 5pts. My mid-September, I knew I was in a battle. Yesterday morning, I was a 2.0pt lead. Then I lost 6.5 points overnight, and now I find myself tied for 2nd and staring at the very real possibility of finishing 3rd. 

 

This after flirting with 100pts throughout the season. This after looking like I was going to run away with the 'ship. And NO, I did not rest on my laurels. Made a deadline deal to pick up Trea Turner. Continued to work my team, but it apparently just wasn't meant to be. 

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4 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I'm going to have a hard time getting over one of my 5x5 roto leagues. Dominated all season...had a double-digit lead for 5/6 months...lead fluctuated between 15-18 most of the season. Then in August I started to notice a slight slippage. Down to 12pts...then down to 10...up to 11...down to 9. Then September hit, and the slide continued. My lead deteriorated to single-digits...then 6pts...then 5pts. My mid-September, I knew I was in a battle. Yesterday morning, I was a 2.0pt lead. Then I lost 6.5 points overnight, and now I find myself tied for 2nd and staring at the very real possibility of finishing 3rd. 

 

This after flirting with 100pts throughout the season. This after looking like I was going to run away with the 'ship. And NO, I did not rest on my laurels. Made a deadline deal to pick up Trea Turner. Continued to work my team, but it apparently just wasn't meant to be. 

 

I'm in a similar situation. Dominated all year in a 12 team ROTO and had a summer rivalry with a certain team all summer long until a guy way behind in the pack made a comeback. This team from behind went from mid 70s to now at 95. I'm sitting at 97 points myself, but this guy came out of nowhere and has been a pain in my side all September long. Glad there is only 1 day left after today; this has been a hard week to navigate anyway with teams resting players/shutting down players.

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Came up short losing 4-6.  9 Ks short with a limited Kluber start and skipped Davies start - while my opponent had Snell turn in possibly the best start of his season (too lazy to look back).  Back-to-back runner up finishes in the first two years of this league (and my only two years in fantasy baseball).  Guess it's not much to complain about, but when getting there can be so difficult it is tough to not get at least one when I could very easily not get back there for years.

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my worst year EVER.

 

14 team roto dynasty -- came in 2nd by 1 point.  Had a 2 point lead going into Saturday and Luke Weaver crushed my ratios

 

15 team roto NFBC style -- came in 3rd.  was in 1st until early August.  missed 2nd by 4 points

 

15 team roto NFBC style -- came in 6th.  Top 5 payout.  Tip of the hat to Luke Weaver again.  finished 1st in hitting points but pitching was awful

 

AL only H2H -- finished 3rd and bounced in 1st round of playoffs.  was in 1st at AS break.  trade deadline deals killed me

 

NL only H2H -- finished 3rd and bounced in 1st round of playoffs.  was in 1st at AS break.  too many injured pitchers

 

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In 2 of the money leagues I am in, I had a first round bye so needed just a semi win to at least finish second. Both of my teams fell apart: Paxton, Duffy on the pitching side, Machado, Schoop, Smoak, Springer on the batters. H2H is really being lucky.

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13 minutes ago, exm said:

In 2 of the money leagues I am in, I had a first round bye so needed just a semi win to at least finish second. Both of my teams fell apart: Paxton, Duffy on the pitching side, Machado, Schoop, Smoak, Springer on the batters. H2H is really being lucky.

not really about luck...its more about knowing when you should bench studs and ride hot hands.

 

 

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[Just to be clear, we're not doing the H2H vs. roto debate in here, people.]

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Was in 1st place pretty much all year until my team just collapsed in August and Sept. Finished in 3rd place and lost the bye in the last week.

 

I traded away J.D Martinez and Luis Severino as my biggest losses. Losing those two for players that did not equal the production of those two sunk me.  Also got rid of Justin Smoak instead of Yonder Alonso (who I ended up cutting).  Chris Sale crapped the bed one too many times down the stretch. In fact, his sunday night baseball implosion cost me a first round bye.

 

I was really good on the wire this year picking up Smoak, Alonso, Severino, Alex Wood and J. Berrios.

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On ‎9‎/‎30‎/‎2017 at 11:04 AM, Flyman75 said:

I'm going to have a hard time getting over one of my 5x5 roto leagues. Dominated all season...had a double-digit lead for 5/6 months...lead fluctuated between 15-18 most of the season. Then in August I started to notice a slight slippage. Down to 12pts...then down to 10...up to 11...down to 9. Then September hit, and the slide continued. My lead deteriorated to single-digits...then 6pts...then 5pts. My mid-September, I knew I was in a battle. Yesterday morning, I was a 2.0pt lead. Then I lost 6.5 points overnight, and now I find myself tied for 2nd and staring at the very real possibility of finishing 3rd. 

 

This after flirting with 100pts throughout the season. This after looking like I was going to run away with the 'ship. And NO, I did not rest on my laurels. Made a deadline deal to pick up Trea Turner. Continued to work my team, but it apparently just wasn't meant to be. 

 

 

I feel ya flyman.  I was in first probably 80% of the season excepting for a slight dip and a rush by another manager in mid summer for a few weeks and the very last weekend.  Ugh.  I was rotating pitchers all this last month.  I was moving expendable hitters for hot hitters.   Once we got to the second week of September, though, it didn't matter what move I made with my hitters, it was the wrong move.  If I had a pair of third basemen to choose from, the one I would sit would hit a home run.  If I picked up a hot hitter - that was the day he would cool down. If I dropped a bum who couldn't find the strike zone with a spotlight, that was the day he'd wake up.   First place last weekend, 2 nd place Saturday and ended in 3rd place just 1 point out of 1st (2 tied for it).    I was a single HR from half a point, a single sb from adding half a point and .001 BA from adding half a point.   Ugh.  Finished pitching (12 team league) with 12 in W, ERA, Whip, K's and a 10 in saves.   Instead of winning about $250 I get my $30 entry back.   Have to admit it was a *very* exciting race to watch, no matter my disappointment at the end.

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