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EmbargoLifted

2018 First Rounders Discussion

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Here's my guess:

 

1. Mike Trout, OF

2. Jose Altuve, 2B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Nolan Arenado, 3B

5. Bryce Harper, OF

6. Mookie Betts, OF

7. Kris Bryant, 3B

8. Anthony Rizzo, 2B

9. Joey Votto, 1B

10. Giancarlo Stanton, OF

11. Charlie Blackmon, OF

12. Jose Ramirez, 2B

 

There are a lot of fringe guys:

 

Aaron Judge, OF

Marcell Ozuna, OF

JD Martinez, OF

Dee Gordon, 2B

Carlos Correa, SS

Manny Machado, SS

 

thoughts?

 

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If Judge and Ozuna are there as fringe guys I think Sanchez should be in the discussion as well.

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If your rankings are close having picks around the turn looks very promising. I'd lower Goldschmidt down a few spots though but that is nitpicking.

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24 minutes ago, Evincar said:

If Judge and Ozuna are there as fringe guys I think Sanchez should be in the discussion as well.

 

Fair point. Gary Sanchez .280, 80, 33, 90, 2 is pretty special at catcher. Would be risky as hell though, as Catcher's offensive seasons tend to be a lot more volatile from year to year.

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Catchers also get less ABs. I think Turner would be a reasonable 1st round or fringe guy. So would any of Sale, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Kluber.

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I think Trea Turner has to be in the discussion. There's only 3 premier base stealers in the game at the moment and Turner is the only one  who provides some power and slugging with it.

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Just now, Marty Funkhouser said:

I think Trea Turner has to be in the discussion. There's only 3 premier base stealers in the game at the moment and Turner is the only one  who provides some power and slugging with it.

agree.... would take trea over rizzo, bryant, mookie, stanton and rameriez

 

you also have blackmon too low and i was not high on him at all since i didnt think he would steal much which he didnt but the power and avg is real

no chance i take mookie/bryant/rizzo over blackmon

no chance arenado makes it out of top 2 for me even with the lack of sb

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Steals can be a very risky investment .. a complete player who brings something in every category with a strong track record of doing so is what's attractive in the first round.

 

  • health/durability (guys who are a threat for 700 PA) 
  • youth (age 20-27 seems to be the sweet spot)
  • track record (multiple seasons of elite performance, even high minor leagues)

 

Jose Ramirez track record is a bit more limited so im more skeptical of his placement than anybody else ... but when you take his 2B/3B/OF eligibility into consideration, and his rare 5 category skill set, it's hard to leave him off.

 

 

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rameriez is no where near my top 12

you also forgot sale kershaw max kluber who will all be 1st rd picks maybe even bum but most will go top 15 picks

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SP are risky investments in the first round .. 

 

The list reflected what my top 12 would look like ... i don't tend to spend big money on SP 

 

I'm curious what your top 12 would look like ... i can't imagine too many players with Jose Ramirez combination of youth, 2B eligibility, 5 category skill set, elite lineup, and his solid bet to play a full 150+ games. 

 

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Turner is risky but worth a late first round gamble over a surer thing like Rizzo. 75+ steals and 120+ runs are a realistic projection if he stays healthy. Those are just bananas numbers. And it's not like he kills you in the other cats.

 

Scherzer, Kluber or Sale are the only pitchers I'd take in round one. Kershaw's injuries the last few years have given me enough pause to slide him out of the first. Same is true of Harper and Stanton. I don't trust them to stay healthy enough to warrant a round one pick anymore. 

 

The more interesting topic to me is which guys will be drafted 5th round or later and have a good shot at providing first round production. Benintendi, Moncada, guys like that. I was about to say Abreu but he's turned things around enough to be a top 25-30 overall player this year, so he won't last til round 5. 

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yea all turner has to do is play 150 game and the 15ish hrs 70 sb 100+ runs is a lock which is an easy top 10 pick for me

 

i think kershaw is still a 1st rd pick in roto as he still returns top 10 value with 170 inn and and 3rd overall with 149 inn ha

if its h2h i would shy away from kershaw as it was a major hit in my two leagues when he went down.. also his inj has been his back not arm so thats kinda a plus but not sure how reoccurring/risk is involved with back inj

 

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Also, Rizzo with 2B eligibility changes his value big time. 

 

Not too many 2B who are a lock for .270+ BA, 30 HR, 100+ RBI, and 5 steals. 

 

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Yeah. Him not having 2B on ESPN next year is going to cause a lot of confusion on this board.

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agree trea turner and clayton kershaw have to be up there

 

scherzer too....no way not 1 of those guys dont have an ADP in top 15

 

edit: also, dont know how Blackmon would be behind betts.  id swap blackmon and betts

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I'm taking Votto over Bryant, Rizzo and betts. He's consistently elite. Sure he'll be on a crappy team and won't steal too many bags , but he is consistent as they get. Epsicalllllly in OBP or OPS league he's top 5 for sure.

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I think Syndergaard may come with a pretty decent discount next year 

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Here you are, the top 

 

1) Trout

2) Altuve

3) Tre Turner

4) Arenado

5) Betts

6) Harper

7) Kershaw

8) Goldschmidt

9) Correa

10) Blackmon

11) Sale

12) Bryant

 

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

Here you are, the top 

 

1) Trout

2) Altuve

3) Tre Turner

4) Arenado

5) Betts

6) Harper

7) Kershaw

8) Goldschmidt

9) Correa

10) Blackmon

11) Sale

12) Bryant

 

again, switch blackmon and betts

 

and im not taking sale over scherzer still...but thats just me

 

goldie belongs in the 2-4 range as well.  i know you dont like goldie but 8th is absurd

 

think correa falls a little because of lack of SB. might put votto in there instead of him even with a deep 1b

 

just my $0.02 

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i understand people having mookie over blackmon because mookie has that 30/30 upside blackmon doesnt (anymore)

i also see blackmon not getting those rbis next year if he hits leadoff so counting stats would have to favor mookie or come out even

 

i think i would have blackmon>mookie just because of arenado and coors

 

1 trout

2 arenado

3 altuve

4 goldy

5 trea

6 blackmon

7 mookie

8 kershaw

9 correa

10 sale

11 bryant

12 rizzo/donaldson/max

 

im higher than most on donaldson but will depend how tor offseason goes or if donaldson gets traded

 

 

 

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Fair points. I think the 10-15 more steals Betts will get is worth the 10-15 homers blackmon might get. And I wouldn't be surprised if Betts had was much closer in homers next year to what Blackmon does.

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4 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

No way the 31+ year old blackmon with 60% sb rate is going to get drafted over Mookie Betts next year. 

 

depends on what you want

 

not like blackmon has hit 325 and 330 the last two years with 248 runs and 185 rbis 66 hrs and 31 bags

even if he only swipes 11-13 you can very easily make a case that blackmon has a high floor and same ceiling as mookie (blackmon #1 overall this year)

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19 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

i understand people having mookie over blackmon because mookie has that 30/30 upside blackmon doesnt (anymore)

i also see blackmon not getting those rbis next year if he hits leadoff so counting stats would have to favor mookie or come out even

 

i think i would have blackmon>mookie just because of arenado and coors

 

1 trout

2 arenado

3 altuve

4 goldy

5 trea

6 blackmon

7 mookie

8 kershaw

9 correa

10 sale

11 bryant

12 rizzo/donaldson/max

 

im higher than most on donaldson but will depend how tor offseason goes or if donaldson gets traded

 

 

 

really like this one cole but im dropping arenado to 4 and bumping altuve and goldy up

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11 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

No way the 31+ year old blackmon with 60% sb rate is going to get drafted over Mookie Betts next year. 

 

I would. Age for one year isn't that big of a deal for me. 

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