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2018 First Rounders Discussion

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54 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

dont see how you can take trea over arenado

 

 

 

5 Category help at the SS position.  He's basically Dee Gordon who won't kill you in HR & RBI.  People tend to shoot for upside and will value the SB aspect of his game. Personally, I'd take Arenado right now...but that will be the reason.  As we go into draft season, Turner's hype will only increase.  

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24 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

if trea hits 300 with a 110/20/70/75sb i think he outperforms arenado.  i couldnt really fault anyone for taking arenado  but i think trea provides 4 cats as well...well maybe 3.5 but his sb put him above for me.  it will be interesting where he goes next year

 

i also disagree arenado hasnt "hit his peak".  some players peak early, some peak later...its difficult to call it.

im not banking on arenado hitting 320 with 55 homers and 150 rbi...

the point i was making about hitting his peak is that he has gotten better each of the last 3 season  at age 24-26 and i would  be more surprised if he doesnt increase his numbers from last year 

you dont have to "bank" on 320/55/150 for him to return top 3-5 value but i dont think that type line is out of the question

areando could easily hits 45-47+ hrs, drive in 140, score 120, and hit 310+ and i wouldnt be surprised

hopefully story, dahl, desmond can actually do something next year for more arenado runs

 

does taking trea, a player who hasnt put together a full season, but has #1 overall upside worth it compared to areando who might only have top 5 upside but is about the safest position player to return 1st rd value if you factor in everything outside of maybe trout, altuve and goldy? (not sure what his sb will look like next year)

 

for me arenado is less risky and you know what your going to get which is why he is right after trout for me (for some reason i have some enormous bias against altuve for no reason at all ha) and i cant pencil goldy in for x amount of sb.. things might change if jdm stays in az but still unlikely

 

i still like trea alot and still had him 5th or 6th i think but i am a big areando fan and on a side not he doesnt get enough respect in real life baseball 

 

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Going back to the SB and player rater discussion earlier....

 

SB's are only overvalued in the player rater if you don't take the high SB value for a guy into consideration when constructing/adjusting the rest of your roster.   If you have Gordon and then pick up more steals guys, the PR becomes worthless because you have an unnecessary amount of steals.  Instead, you should almost ignore steals with the rest of your players, allowing you to improve your other stats.

 

The best way to look at is that if you could go back and construct the best possible roster for the 2017 season AFTER the season, Dee Gordon would have provided more value to the team than Arenado and you would pick Gordon before Arenado.  So if you could only pick one, picking Gordon allows you to pick a better overall team.  It would free up your steals category and allow you to get guys that more than make up for the HRs and Rs that you lose by not picking Arenado.  But this is only for constructing a 2017 team AFTER the season, which of course isn't real life.

 

That does NOT mean that it would have been better to trade for Gordon than Arenado or pick Gordon up if somehow they were both free agents, because you probably already have a decent amount of steals on your team and Arenado would provide better marginal improvement where it counts.  It also does not mean that Gordon should be a higher pick in 2018, for all the reasons stated earlier like track record and upside, position scarcity, injury risk, diversifying steals, etc.

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10 hours ago, The Waker said:

Going back to the SB and player rater discussion earlier....

 

SB's are only overvalued in the player rater if you don't take the high SB value for a guy into consideration when constructing/adjusting the rest of your roster.   If you have Gordon and then pick up more steals guys, the PR becomes worthless because you have an unnecessary amount of steals.  Instead, you should almost ignore steals with the rest of your players, allowing you to improve your other stats.

 

The best way to look at is that if you could go back and construct the best possible roster for the 2017 season AFTER the season, Dee Gordon would have provided more value to the team than Arenado and you would pick Gordon before Arenado.  So if you could only pick one, picking Gordon allows you to pick a better overall team.  It would free up your steals category and allow you to get guys that more than make up for the HRs and Rs that you lose by not picking Arenado.  But this is only for constructing a 2017 team AFTER the season, which of course isn't real life.

 

That does NOT mean that it would have been better to trade for Gordon than Arenado or pick Gordon up if somehow they were both free agents, because you probably already have a decent amount of steals on your team and Arenado would provide better marginal improvement where it counts.  It also does not mean that Gordon should be a higher pick in 2018, for all the reasons stated earlier like track record and upside, position scarcity, injury risk, diversifying steals, etc.

Its funny you mention that because in my main league in SB's there is generally an outlier, I usually target around 150 steals total for my 14 hitters as my season long goal, that usually will get you at/near top 3-5 which in that category is all Im really investing in, if things fall into place like 2016 when my $1 Villar blew up and Wil Myers went like 25+ and had Realmuto as catcher, I actually won steals that year (still didnt win me the league) but usually someone goes crazy and ends up like 250 steals and wins the category by 50 bags.  

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20 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

if trea hits 300 with a 110/20/70/75sb i think he outperforms arenado.  i couldnt really fault anyone for taking arenado  but i think trea provides 4 cats as well...well maybe 3.5 but his sb put him above for me.  it will be interesting where he goes next year

 

i also disagree arenado hasnt "hit his peak".  some players peak early, some peak later...its difficult to call it.

im not banking on arenado hitting 320 with 55 homers and 150 rbi...

I could see going Turner over Arenado, Ive generally through the years put some emphasis on positional value.  Steals and 5 category contribution by SS, there is a lot to like there, Arenado is a monster, but the other thing is sometimes positional approach may dictate some of those things, so like maybe you like Donaldson on a bounceback in the 3rd or 4th so you dont want to invest in a 3B in the first round, something like that can be a factor as well.  In a vacuum, I would rank Arenado over Turner, but roster building strategy I could see where some might go the other route. 

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

Its funny you mention that because in my main league in SB's there is generally an outlier, I usually target around 150 steals total for my 14 hitters as my season long goal, that usually will get you at/near top 3-5 which in that category is all Im really investing in, if things fall into place like 2016 when my $1 Villar blew up and Wil Myers went like 25+ and had Realmuto as catcher, I actually won steals that year (still didnt win me the league) but usually someone goes crazy and ends up like 250 steals and wins the category by 50 bags.  

Checked my only Roto league (10 team, 14 hitters) to see where 50 steals ranked. You would have come in last by 43.  But looking at the totals was surprised by the number of steals there actually were. Came in second with 167 and Gordon was on my team. 

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11 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Checked my only Roto league (10 team, 14 hitters) to see where 50 steals ranked. You would have come in last by 43.  But looking at the totals was surprised by the number of steals there actually were. Came in second with 167 and Gordon was on my team. 

 

10 team roto league easier to find steals, for sure. 

 

I also agree with @The Waker that one of the worst things you can do is have too many steals. Almost always there is one person with too many and they seemingly are never in first and often don't place.  That being said if 2017 is any  indication, you can make up the power and find good power only guys in just about any round.   It's not like there are that many 20 + steal guys that are worth drafting that they will be hard to avoid if you drafted a  Gordon or Hamilton.

 

If you did Dee Gordon and were lucky enough to rush to the wire to pick up a Whit Merifield and suddenly your team construction shows you that you're on pace to have too many steals, you should be able to trade. If it's a competitive roto league, there's going to be a team who needs steals. There's no reason to have too many steals. 

 

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29 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

10 team roto league easier to find steals, for sure. 

 

I also agree with @The Waker that one of the worst things you can do is have too many steals. Almost always there is one person with too many and they seemingly are never in first and often don't place.  That being said if 2017 is any  indication, you can make up the power and find good power only guys in just about any round.   It's not like there are that many 20 + steal guys that are worth drafting that they will be hard to avoid if you drafted a  Gordon or Hamilton.

 

If you did Dee Gordon and were lucky enough to rush to the wire to pick up a Whit Merifield and suddenly your team construction shows you that you're on pace to have too many steals, you should be able to trade. If it's a competitive roto league, there's going to be a team who needs steals. There's no reason to have too many steals. 

 

Yup, pretty much this. In H2H you can absolutely dominate with a guy like Gordon or Hamilton, plus some other 20SB guys like Nunez. Getting anyone that has 10+HR upside to go along with 20+ SB is huge when you combine it with the talent in the 1st and 2nd rounds. In my H2H league I ended up with Nunez, Trout, Gordon, Myers, Lindor, Yelich, and no one could touch me in SBs any week.

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1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

Checked my only Roto league (10 team, 14 hitters) to see where 50 steals ranked. You would have come in last by 43.  But looking at the totals was surprised by the number of steals there actually were. Came in second with 167 and Gordon was on my team. 

BTW I said 150 not 50?  If that checking to see where steals ranked. 

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1 hour ago, parrothead said:

BTW I said 150 not 50?  If that checking to see where steals ranked. 

Sorry I read it as 50. With 150 you would have done much, much better. ?

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2 hours ago, Low and Away said:

Sorry I read it as 50. With 150 you would have done much, much better. ?

Usually 150 in my league gets you somewhere between 3rd and no worse than 5th going back to 2011.  Its actually one of the more predictable and consistent numbers to predict where you need to be.  

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On 10/18/2017 at 12:48 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

10 team roto league easier to find steals, for sure. 

 

I also agree with @The Waker that one of the worst things you can do is have too many steals. Almost always there is one person with too many and they seemingly are never in first and often don't place.  That being said if 2017 is any  indication, you can make up the power and find good power only guys in just about any round.   It's not like there are that many 20 + steal guys that are worth drafting that they will be hard to avoid if you drafted a  Gordon or Hamilton.

 

If you did Dee Gordon and were lucky enough to rush to the wire to pick up a Whit Merifield and suddenly your team construction shows you that you're on pace to have too many steals, you should be able to trade. If it's a competitive roto league, there's going to be a team who needs steals. There's no reason to have too many steals. 

 

yes, i agree....which is why if i take turner in the first, i will avoid guys like gordon or even tommy pham.

 

as you stated... in my league, roto deep 12 team...top 4 teams are almost always trying to trade for steals second half...so if you have an abundance, you can get yourself some power or a closer or something.

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only 2 first rd bust (altuve and Bryant I guess some took correa and votto) and only one first rd adp player returning 1st rd value (Mookie)

all other first rd picks are returning top 35 value. 

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If you are going to draft nolan over turner. It would be kinda naive to draft gordon. Because you will have just nullfied the Major HR, RBI advatage nolan gave you.  Look at the hitters taken around dee gordon this year.

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On 9/30/2017 at 9:43 PM, absknicks said:

Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. 

 

On 10/1/2017 at 8:17 PM, jfazz23 said:

pham over betts...dead SRS

 

bold prediction 2018...pham finishes ahead of betts

 

On 10/1/2017 at 8:44 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

Lol *saved for posterity 

 

Picking a career minor leaguer who will be 30 next season to finish ahead of Mookie again is bold. Looking forward to revisiting this one. 

 

As for 1st rounders, seems 

Trout

Altuve

Goldy

is a pretty safe top tier. Then it seems there’s a *consensus next ~5/6 with 

Arenado

Bryce

Mookie

Blackmon

Votto

Stanton

 

Then I think there’s literally about 15 guys I’d consider in the next tier and could see going in any number of directions. 

You always want the top picks anyway, but getting one of those top 3, plus possibly 2 of these guys in “tier 3” is pretty sexy in standard snake drafts.

 

Winning your league is letting others overreact to one season.

 

Letting Mookie fall was NEVER the smart play. I said it here. I said it in the Mookie thread. I said it in the Blackmon thread. 

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[This thread was originally created for predictions about how the first round would go heading into this  season.  Since the recent bump, however, the discussion has been 100% about who was right and who was wrong, instead of a more substantive discussion of *why* these players didn't recoup their draft day cost, what sort of things we can look at to repeat these mistakes in the future, etc.  There's too much activity on the forums right now to have to mediate in these petty disputes, so this thread will be locked.]

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