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EmbargoLifted

2018 First Rounders Discussion

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For what it's worth, I collected the draft results (so far) from four "expert" mock drafts happening on couchmanagers.com right now:

 

  rank1 rank2 rank3 rank4 adp
player          
Mike Trout 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Jose Altuve 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Paul Goldschmidt 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 3.0
Nolan Arenado 5.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 4.0
Trea Turner 3.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 5.0
Bryce Harper 8.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.5
Charlie Blackmon 6.0 7.0 3.0 8.0 6.5
Clayton Kershaw 11.0 8.0 11.0 4.0 8.0
Joey Votto 7.0 12.0 7.0 10.0 9.0
Mookie Betts 10.0 10.0 8.0 13.0 10.0
Giancarlo Stanton 19.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 11.0
Max Scherzer 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 12.0
Carlos Correa 9.0 17.0 17.0 11.0 13.0
Chris Sale 13.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0
Manny Machado 24.0 11.0 12.0 14.0 15.0
Kris Bryant 17.0 13.0 16.0 18.0 16.0
Anthony Rizzo 14.0 22.0 14.0 17.0 17.0
Freddie Freeman 22.0 20.0 22.0 16.0 18.5
Corey Kluber 15.0 19.0 19.0 27.0 18.5
Josh Donaldson 20.0 18.0 23.0 20.0 20.0
Jose Ramirez 18.0 28.0 18.0 22.0 21.0
Francisco Lindor 21.0 23.0 27.0 19.0 22.0
Aaron Judge 28.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 23.0
J.D. Martinez 26.0 26.0 20.0 21.0 24.0
Dee Gordon 16.0 34.0 24.0 25.0 25.0

 

image.thumb.png.26ab43bae6621783f37ec5121c77d5ef.png

 

Four drafts isn't a lot of data, and the market will change a lot between now and draft season, but I think this gives a decent look at what the market is like right now.

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I'm really shocked that Blackmon is going ahead of Betts in expert drafts. He's clearly the value pick in the first round ... the rest i don't have much disagreement with.

 

One other nitpick also is that i would move Jose Ramirez up quite a bit .. his 2B eligibility and 5 cat skill set makes his floor much higher than some of the guys going ahead of him. 

 

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Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. 

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A lot of Blackmon's value is tied to an inflated batting average .. 

 

he's a .300 hitter, not a .330 hitter. 

 

he's also going to be 32 next year .. i just see a lot of potential downside whether by injury, bad babip luck, reduction in steal attempts, regression in power, etc. 

 

Where Betts is a near lock for 100/20/20/100/.290 (granted his babip regresses), and at 24/25 he could still take his game to another level. 

 

At the end of the day, im a very conservative drafter in the first round. A player's floor is more important to me than ceiling. And Bett's seems like the safer pick (youth, better chance to replicate an elite season, etc. etc. etc.)

 

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16 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. 

 

OPS means nothing in fantasy baseball (in most league). He's had a "bad" year while throwing up 24 HRs, 26 steals, 101 runs, and 102 RBI. Those are massive counting stats. Only his BA keeps him from being a top 10 player, and his s---y BABIP is in large part responsible for that. 

 

If I'm drafting at the end of the first round I'm taking Betts and not thinking twice about it. 

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5 minutes ago, sleepysock said:

 

OPS means nothing in fantasy baseball (in most league). He's had a "bad" year while throwing up 24 HRs, 26 steals, 101 runs, and 102 RBI. Those are massive counting stats. Only his BA keeps him from being a top 10 player, and his s---y BABIP is in large part responsible for that. 

 

If I'm drafting after the first 3 or 4 picks I'm taking Betts and not thinking twice about it. 

 

fixed

 

there's a clear top 5 before a drop:

 

1. Trout

2. Altuve

3. Goldschmidt

4. Arenado

5. Betts 

 

Those guys are in the prime of their careers, have several years of elite performance, have clean or near clean injury histories, etc. 

 

After those 5 ... there's tons of talent but all come with various levels of question marks.

 

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52 minutes ago, absknicks said:

Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. 

 

I don't think anyone's not admitting he wasn't somewhat a disappointment. He was generally the number 2 or 3 player off the board and is finishing in the low 30s.

 

I have to say, if this is his non injury floor sign me up. 20-20-100-100 for a 24 year old.

 

 

I too am not thinking twice about nabbing him in the middle of the first.

 

Lots of players disappoint in fantasy.

 

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More fun with mock draft data.  Here's the ADP risers and fallers from 2016.

 

image.thumb.png.1e3b62747a3e433f6b892a51b7a60e63.png

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1 hour ago, absknicks said:

Betts isn't going at #6. He could barely muster an .800 OPS in a year with a juiced ball. Your refusal to admit he's been a massive disappointment this year is just comical at this point. 

i agree....think its nuts people dont think blackmon goes before him

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1 hour ago, EmbargoLifted said:

A lot of Blackmon's value is tied to an inflated batting average .. 

 

he's a .300 hitter, not a .330 hitter. 

 

he's also going to be 32 next year .. i just see a lot of potential downside whether by injury, bad babip luck, reduction in steal attempts, regression in power, etc. 

 

Where Betts is a near lock for 100/20/20/100/.290 (granted his babip regresses), and at 24/25 he could still take his game to another level. 

 

At the end of the day, im a very conservative drafter in the first round. A player's floor is more important to me than ceiling. And Bett's seems like the safer pick (youth, better chance to replicate an elite season, etc. etc. etc.)

 

unless blackmon gets traded or they move the fences back 100 feet blackmon is the guy id take (redraft) over betts

 

@EmbargoLifted -im willing to take turner over arenado and betts

@brockpapersizer -this might be something we can agree on

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with trea hitting 143 pts below his ops last year he has a pace of ...

 

285 avg, 18 hrs, 75 sb, 125 runs, 75 rbis

yes ik people (me included sometimes) dont like just multiplying their numbers out but look at that line in a sophomore campaign, with harper inj 

also trea wont play 162 games

 

i might have to think about moving him up over goldy as goldy sb numbers are no lock (stole 7 and 5 bags the first two months then only stole 1 or 2 bags per month ROS 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

with trea hitting 143 pts below his ops last year he has a pace of ...

 

285 avg, 18 hrs, 75 sb, 125 runs, 75 rbis

yes ik people (me included sometimes) dont like just multiplying their numbers out but look at that line in a sophomore campaign, with harper inj 

also trea wont play 162 games

 

i might have to think about moving him up over goldy as goldy sb numbers are no lock (stole 7 and 5 bags the first two months then only stole 1 or 2 bags per month ROS 

 

 

gonna be tough to take him ahead of goldie though....i can see an argument for turner at 4 though

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Yes, Turner is the more tantalizing talent ... but always go with safe high floor picks in the first.

 

You're not trying to win your league in the first round -- you are trying to avoid losing it in the first round.

 

 

 

 

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19 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Yes, Turner is the more tantalizing talent ... but always go with safe high floor picks in the first.

 

You're not trying to win your league in the first round -- you are trying to avoid losing it in the first round.

 

 

 

 

whats not safe about turner? he got hit in the wrist... im not labeling him inj prone or docking him anything... he had a minor leg/groin inj that was minimal

his floor is higher than mookies if both play 150+ games

 

anyways will be interesting to see where harpers adp will be as some will still have him top 5-6 and some will not touch him in the 1st rd (maybe at the turn)

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2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

A lot of Blackmon's value is tied to an inflated batting average .. 

 

he's a .300 hitter, not a .330 hitter. 

 

he's also going to be 32 next year .. i just see a lot of potential downside whether by injury, bad babip luck, reduction in steal attempts, regression in power, etc. 

 

Where Betts is a near lock for 100/20/20/100/.290 (granted his babip regresses), and at 24/25 he could still take his game to another level. 

 

At the end of the day, im a very conservative drafter in the first round. A player's floor is more important to me than ceiling. And Bett's seems like the safer pick (youth, better chance to replicate an elite season, etc. etc. etc.)

 

 

 

I'm confused by the first two lines. How is he a .300 hitter and not a .330 hitter? He's at .324 and .329 the last two years. That's quite a bit better than .300. 

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I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. 

  1. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. 

 

Here's some trivia for you:

-I have hit 166 home runs over the last four seasons, and haven't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007.

-I has 75 career stolen bases, and I have led the league in both home runs in RBI

-My team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of my name conjures

-I have not been mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far!

 

Who Am I?

 

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3 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. 

  1. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. 

 

Here's some trivia for you:

-this player has hit 136 home runs over the last four seasons, and hasn't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007.

-his team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of his name conjures

-he has 75 career stolen bases, and has led the league in both home runs in RBI

-he isn't mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far!

 

Pretty sure you mean 166 homers. 

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4 minutes ago, taobball said:

Pretty sure you mean 166 homers. 

 

you have won the contest!

and yes, the math was off by 30 or so dingers, and yes, the answer is Daniel Descalso. 

 

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2 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

unless blackmon gets traded or they move the fences back 100 feet blackmon is the guy id take (redraft) over betts

 

 

@brockpapersizer -this might be something we can agree on

 

It's interesting this thread has turned into Blackmon vs Betts. I'm Team Betts, but I don't think taking Blackmon over him is a bad move.  I play a lot of roto, so I value the steals a lot more.  Betts has mustered basically the same amount of steals as he did last  year (26 vs 25 this year) in about 20 less PAs.... and this is with a 267 BABIP.

 

For me it's thinking Betts is going to hit over 300, steal 30 bags, and hit 25-30 Home Runs in the middle of a potent lineup. Betts contact rate is basically the same last year and his walks have improved to a career high, and by significant margin. With an improve babip to go with his 10+ walk rate, I don't think 35 steals is out of the question.

 

I'm also willing to change my mind, this is a good debate though.

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2 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. 

  1. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. 

 

Here's some trivia for you:

-I have hit 166 home runs over the last four seasons, and haven't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007.

-I has 75 career stolen bases, and I have led the league in both home runs in RBI

-My team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of my name conjures

-I have not been mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far!

 

Who Am I?

 

did i get popped for peds and misplay a ball in the WS vs STL that could of won the series with two outs in the 9th?

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2 hours ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

I'm nutty high on Turner, but top-5 seems aggressive. True 100-steal upside but he simply isn't as proven. 

  1. I do think this was Mookie's true floor. The fact that he can have prolonged slumps, and OPS under .800, and still put up these nice counting stats, just cements him as a fantasy darling for me... and with some positive BABIP regression, the sky is the limit. 

 

Here's some trivia for you:

-I have hit 166 home runs over the last four seasons, and haven't hit below .260 since a partial season in 2007.

-I has 75 career stolen bases, and I have led the league in both home runs in RBI

-My team mascot uses one, but not like the one the image of my name conjures

-I have not been mentioned in any of the lists or comments so far!

 

Who Am I?

 

Nelson Cruz.

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8 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

...I play a lot of roto, so I value the steals a lot more...

 

I think the guys who don't put any SPs anywhere near their top 12-15 are virtually all h2h players too.

 

roto/h2h really has a significant impact on this discussion tbh.

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