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2018 First Rounders Discussion

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13 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

For what it's worth, I collected the draft results (so far) from four "expert" mock drafts happening on couchmanagers.com right now:

 

  rank1 rank2 rank3 rank4 adp
player          
Mike Trout 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Jose Altuve 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Paul Goldschmidt 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 3.0
Nolan Arenado 5.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 4.0
Trea Turner 3.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 5.0
Bryce Harper 8.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.5
Charlie Blackmon 6.0 7.0 3.0 8.0 6.5
Clayton Kershaw 11.0 8.0 11.0 4.0 8.0
Joey Votto 7.0 12.0 7.0 10.0 9.0
Mookie Betts 10.0 10.0 8.0 13.0 10.0
Giancarlo Stanton 19.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 11.0
Max Scherzer 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 12.0
Carlos Correa 9.0 17.0 17.0 11.0 13.0
Chris Sale 13.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0
Manny Machado 24.0 11.0 12.0 14.0 15.0
Kris Bryant 17.0 13.0 16.0 18.0 16.0
Anthony Rizzo 14.0 22.0 14.0 17.0 17.0
Freddie Freeman 22.0 20.0 22.0 16.0 18.5
Corey Kluber 15.0 19.0 19.0 27.0 18.5
Josh Donaldson 20.0 18.0 23.0 20.0 20.0
Jose Ramirez 18.0 28.0 18.0 22.0 21.0
Francisco Lindor 21.0 23.0 27.0 19.0 22.0
Aaron Judge 28.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 23.0
J.D. Martinez 26.0 26.0 20.0 21.0 24.0
Dee Gordon 16.0 34.0 24.0 25.0 25.0

 

image.thumb.png.26ab43bae6621783f37ec5121c77d5ef.png

 

Four drafts isn't a lot of data, and the market will change a lot between now and draft season, but I think this gives a decent look at what the market is like right now.

This looks like a pretty good start to my roto rankings for next year. For me I'd drop Rizzo to the bottom of the list (unless he qualifies at 2b). I'd move Judge up to just after Sale. I'd also swap Harper and Betts since Harper didn't steal much this year while the injury risk is still there. Martinez could move up or down depending on where he lands. I also wouldn't be surprised to see Stanton dealt in the offseason which could move him up a couple spots.

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.286/.386/.527*      89-32-78          73:116    (140 games played)*

.278/.387/.512       94-31-101         78:105

.292/.385/.544       94-32-109         74:108

.273/.393/.508       99-32-109          91:90

 

those are Anthony Rizzo's stats the last few years. First numbers are triple-slash, then triple-crown, then k:bb

Remarkable consistency, almost to a T. 

 

His slugging went down this year, but with a huge gain in that last column, K:BB.  It's phenomenal that a player with his power skillset, walked more than he struck out. He is also 27, theoretically smack dab in the middle of his baseball prime. 

 

The way Rizzo improved his plate discipline and strikeout-rate, make me think he might have another (mini) leap yet. 

 

When assessing Rizzo as a fantasy player, here are some positives:

-.270-30-90 floor (one of the highest floors in baseball)

-considerable upside  (.290-38-120-10)

-age 27

-plays for a good team in a talented lineup-- and hits next to Kris Bryant

-peripheral improvement suggests he may still be evolving as a player

-his .274 BABIP in 2017 is his lowest since 2013, and 2nd lowest since his rookie year with the Padres. 

 

Here are the negatives:

-lack of elite speed makes him less valuable than the Altuve/Goldy/Mookie's of the world

-1B, at least this year, was S T A C K E D 

 

But overall? I think Rizzo is getting disrespected. Don't punish him for consistency! I love, love Anthony Rizzo, and he is probably a top-10 player for me, especially in OBP leagues, where he is essentially a much younger, poor man's Joey Votto.  And calling someone a poor man's Votto is like telling someone they look like a mid-tier supermodel. It's not a slight, babe. You still look incredible. 

 

 

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8 minutes ago, ChicksDigTheOPS said:

.286/.386/.527*      89-32-78          73:116    (140 games played)*

.278/.387/.512       94-31-101         78:105

.292/.385/.544       94-32-109         74:108

.273/.393/.508       99-32-109          91:90

 

those are Anthony Rizzo's stats the last few years. First numbers are triple-slash, then triple-crown, then k:bb

Remarkable consistency, almost to a T. 

 

His slugging went down this year, but with a huge gain in that last column, K:BB.  It's phenomenal that a player with his power skillset, walked more than he struck out. He is also 27, theoretically smack dab in the middle of his baseball prime. 

 

The way Rizzo improved his plate discipline and strikeout-rate, make me think he might have another (mini) leap yet. 

 

When assessing Rizzo as a fantasy player, here are some positives:

-.270-30-90 floor (one of the highest floors in baseball)

-considerable upside  (.290-38-120-10)

-age 27

-plays for a good team in a talented lineup-- and hits next to Kris Bryant

-peripheral improvement suggests he may still be evolving as a player

-his .274 BABIP in 2017 is his lowest since 2013, and 2nd lowest since his rookie year with the Padres. 

 

Here are the negatives:

-lack of elite speed makes him less valuable than the Altuve/Goldy/Mookie's of the world

-1B, at least this year, was S T A C K E D 

 

But overall? I think Rizzo is getting disrespected. Don't punish him for consistency! I love, love Anthony Rizzo, and he is probably a top-10 player for me, especially in OBP leagues, where he is essentially a much younger, poor man's Joey Votto.  And calling someone a poor man's Votto is like telling someone they look like a mid-tier supermodel. It's not a slight, babe. You still look incredible. 

 

 

I love Rizzo. He plays almost every game and is consistent as they come. His BB% went up and his K% went down this season. His average was lower than last season, but that's due to his BABIP. Plus, he's 2B eligible in Yahoo, which is amazing. I would happily take him towards the end of the first round. If he falls to the second round, look out. Fantastic value.

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Not one peep of Bellinger? At least early second round considerations??

 

Or am still blinded as an owner to his true value.  39 HRs 87 runs, 96 runs in 475 or so at bats. 

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26 minutes ago, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

I would happily take him towards the end of the first round. If he falls to the second round, look out. Fantastic value.

 

Rizzo's going to creep up into the top 12 in February/March when Yahoo draft results start feeding into the ADP discussion.  I've never valued him highly enough to get him anywhere because of the depth of 1B, but it's worth paying for consistency in the first round, and the 2B eligibility is a massive boon to his value.  Even if it only lasts a year (don't see why it would, as Maddon is unlikely to change his approach to shifting, and Yahoo's unlikely to change their eligibility rules) it's such a cheat code to get a bat of Rizzo's caliber late in the first to cover a thin position.

 

Yeah, if you can get him early in the 2nd, take that to the bank.

 

6 minutes ago, Bullys said:

Not one peep of Bellinger? At least early second round considerations??

 

He's showing up with an ADP of 26 in the industry mock draft data I cited above.  I think that's a bit low -- I'd take him over Judge, Lindor, and Donaldson at least, and maybe JD depending on where he lands in the offseason -- but it's really hard to crack the top 25.  Everyone's pushing starting pitching up in their drafts, and that means people are going to want a "safer" bat with their first two picks, because drafting SP so high is a lot of risk.

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3 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

He's showing up with an ADP of 26 in the industry mock draft data I cited above.  I think that's a bit low -- I'd take him over Judge, Lindor, and Donaldson at least, and maybe JD depending on where he lands in the offseason -- but it's really hard to crack the top 25.  Everyone's pushing starting pitching up in their drafts, and that means people are going to want a "safer" bat with their first two picks, because drafting SP so high is a lot of risk.

Depends on the starting pitcher.  There's obviously very little risk with Kluber, Sale, and Scherzer.  Obviously there's injury risk with Kershaw (but he usually pitches enough to be worth it) and Strasburg.  Severino, deGrom, and maybe MadBum and Greinke are pretty safe.  As for the top 3 though, they are no risk guys worth taking in the first round (or really high in the second round) and then probably Kershaw.

 

People are pushing SP up because guys that are extremely reliable to go out and pitch good almost every start are becoming more rare.  Sure, you can find some guys to fill out your "rotation", but there's something to be said about the stability of an elite SP.

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11 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

People are pushing SP up because guys that are extremely reliable to go out and pitch good almost every start are becoming more rare.  Sure, you can find some guys to fill out your "rotation", but there's something to be said about the stability of an elite SP.

 

I wasn't suggesting it's a bad strategy -- just describing the thought process.  I'm pushing those guys up as well, but I'm doing so with the knowledge that it adds risk.

 

The thing is those guys are reliable *compared to pitchers*.  Pitching as a whole is still much more volatile than hitting -- it's why most people devote 60-70% of their auction budget to bats.  Scherzer could be in danger of missing playoff games right now, and he came into the season with injury concerns.  Those turned out to be mostly unfounded, but he's still much more of a risk than a batter of a similar talent level and age, and typically people have had to price that risk in.

 

With those four guys in particular, though, you can generally get crazy elite production even if they miss a month or two with a nagging injury.  Kershaw can do much more in ~4 months than almost anyone else can do in a full season.  But that doesn't mean he's less risky -- it just means that risk comes with a competitive advantage.  But I still think that someone who takes one of those guys isn't going to want to back that pick up with a risky bat.  I mean some will, but if I go Kershaw or Scherzer in the 1st round, I want a long track record -- a narrower range of outcomes, in other words -- in the 2nd round.

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7 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

I wasn't suggesting it's a bad strategy -- just describing the thought process.  I'm pushing those guys up as well, but I'm doing so with the knowledge that it adds risk.

 

The thing is those guys are reliable *compared to pitchers*.  Pitching as a whole is still much more volatile than hitting -- it's why most people devote 60-70% of their auction budget to bats.  Scherzer could be in danger of missing playoff games right now, and he came into the season with injury concerns.  Those turned out to be mostly unfounded, but he's still much more of a risk than a batter of a similar talent level and age, and typically people have had to price that risk in.

 

With those four guys in particular, though, you can generally get crazy elite production even if they miss a month or two with a nagging injury.  Kershaw can do much more in ~4 months than almost anyone else can do in a full season.  But that doesn't mean he's less risky -- it just means that risk comes with a competitive advantage.  But I still think that someone who takes one of those guys isn't going to want to back that pick up with a risky bat.  I mean some will, but if I go Kershaw or Scherzer in the 1st round, I want a long track record -- a narrower range of outcomes, in other words -- in the 2nd round.

I don't do redraft leagues anymore as I just concentrate on my one keeper league, but if I did do a redraft, I'd be fine with waiting on one of the top 3 or 4 pitchers for the 2nd round if it was possible.  I was mainly just stating that those guys are so good that I don't see there being that much risk there when there is an obvious advantage to having one of them.

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14 minutes ago, KilloWertz said:

I was mainly just stating that those guys are so good that I don't see there being that much risk there when there is an obvious advantage to having one of them.

 

We're talking about two different things.  I'm talking about the risk portion of a risk/reward calculation -- you're talking about the net result of that calculation, including the reward of getting better performance out of that pick.

 

Pitchers are more risky with respect to missing time -- full stop.  It may be that the risk is worth the reward, and like I said, I believe it is with some of these guys.  But if you go with one of them, you may have made the right call to get the best possible outcome factoring in the injury the risk, but you might still want to hedge that bet with a safer pick to offset the risk.

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23 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Here's my guess:

 

1. Mike Trout, OF

2. Jose Altuve, 2B

3. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B

4. Nolan Arenado, 3B

5. Bryce Harper, OF

6. Mookie Betts, OF

7. Kris Bryant, 3B

8. Anthony Rizzo, 2B

9. Joey Votto, 1B

10. Giancarlo Stanton, OF

11. Charlie Blackmon, OF

12. Jose Ramirez, 2B

 

There are a lot of fringe guys:

 

Aaron Judge, OF

Marcell Ozuna, OF

JD Martinez, OF

Dee Gordon, 2B

Carlos Correa, SS

Manny Machado, SS

 

thoughts?

 

No pitchers?

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19 hours ago, jfazz23 said:

again, switch blackmon and betts

 

and im not taking sale over scherzer still...but thats just me

 

goldie belongs in the 2-4 range as well.  i know you dont like goldie but 8th is absurd

 

think correa falls a little because of lack of SB. might put votto in there instead of him even with a deep 1b

 

just my $0.02 

I would take Kluber over Sale, Kluber gets better as the year goes on, Sale gets worse

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In re: drafting SPs vs. batters risk/reward (roto only)

 

It's true that drafting SPs highly is a little scarier, mostly because of all the different kinds of injury risks they bring along with them compared to batters. But I think overall, SPs make up for that difference in risk and then some because of the significance of their impact on 4 of the 10 roto stats (again, I'm talking roto only)

 

For instance, most roto leagues have a GS and/or innings limit. But batter limits tend to be a little less stringent. And many leagues don't have any at all. So you can't just add/drop to nickel and dime counting stats in pitching the way you can with hitting.

 

But even with limits, streaming hitting is still less risky in traditional 5x5, since there is only one hitting ratio (BA) vs. two pitching ratios (ERA/WHIP) to be negatively impacted.

 

Anyway, let's set aside streaming, which obviously can be limited depending on format.

 

Most leagues have more batter slots than pitcher slots, which combined with a GS limit, increases the impact of any given SP.

 

i.e. standard ESPN has 13 batter slots and only 9 pitcher slots with a 200 GS limit. So over the course of a season, that's about 7 SPs starting about 29 games to get you there (obviously all of these won't come from the draft, I'm just saying 7 SPs/slots, averaged out).

 

So that would make 4 pitching stats being affected by 7 SPs, vs. 5 hitting stats being affected by 13 batters.

 

Basically, the point I'm trying to make is that a -single one- of those 7 SPs for those 4 roto stats is more significant in terms of -overall impact on the standings- when compared to the same impact on the standings of a -single one- of 13 batters on 5 roto stats. I mean yeah, the batter is affecting an extra category. But there are almost twice as many batters, which waters down the significance of any particular one.

 

Now, you've probably noticed that I didn't factor in closers/saves. I'm assuming for the purpose of this analysis that the saves chase ends up having a neutral impact on ratios, Ks, and Ws for each team in any given roto league, which is certainly a significant assumption, but I think a fair one for the purposes of weighing SPs and batters for overall draft value in roto. I certainly wouldn't mind feedback on that or any other part of the analysis though.

 

On the other hand, maybe I'm just trying too hard to explain why I ran away with my roto league this season, when really it's just that I got lucky with SPs rather than my SP focused drafting strategy.

 

tldr: 4 roto stats for one of 7 SPs is more significant overall than 5 roto stats for one of 13 batters.

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12 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

It's interesting this thread has turned into Blackmon vs Betts. I'm Team Betts, but I don't think taking Blackmon over him is a bad move.  I play a lot of roto, so I value the steals a lot more.  Betts has mustered basically the same amount of steals as he did last  year (26 vs 25 this year) in about 20 less PAs.... and this is with a 267 BABIP.

 

For me it's thinking Betts is going to hit over 300, steal 30 bags, and hit 25-30 Home Runs in the middle of a potent lineup. Betts contact rate is basically the same last year and his walks have improved to a career high, and by significant margin. With an improve babip to go with his 10+ walk rate, I don't think 35 steals is out of the question.

 

I'm also willing to change my mind, this is a good debate though.

o i know my bad

 

i was referring to taking Turner over arenado, betts, blackmon

 

sorry

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I might be high on Correa but hes in my top 8.  SS is just a shallow position this year and I want stock in him

 

Trout

Goldy

Altuve

Arenado

Betts

Blackmon

Turner

Correa

Harper

Rizzo

Votto

Bryant

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39 minutes ago, wily mo said:

tommy pham, b*tches

 

...as a first rounder?  *not_sure_if_serious.gif*

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1 hour ago, wily mo said:

tommy pham, b*tches

pham over betts...dead SRS

 

bold prediction 2018...pham finishes ahead of betts

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31 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

 

...as a first rounder?  *not_sure_if_serious.gif*

 

not entirely serious. but, like... what if i was

 

 

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23 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

For what it's worth, I collected the draft results (so far) from four "expert" mock drafts happening on couchmanagers.com right now:

 

  rank1 rank2 rank3 rank4 adp
player          
Mike Trout 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
Jose Altuve 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0
Paul Goldschmidt 4.0 3.0 4.0 6.0 3.0
Nolan Arenado 5.0 6.0 5.0 3.0 4.0
Trea Turner 3.0 4.0 9.0 7.0 5.0
Bryce Harper 8.0 5.0 6.0 5.0 6.5
Charlie Blackmon 6.0 7.0 3.0 8.0 6.5
Clayton Kershaw 11.0 8.0 11.0 4.0 8.0
Joey Votto 7.0 12.0 7.0 10.0 9.0
Mookie Betts 10.0 10.0 8.0 13.0 10.0
Giancarlo Stanton 19.0 9.0 10.0 9.0 11.0
Max Scherzer 12.0 14.0 13.0 12.0 12.0
Carlos Correa 9.0 17.0 17.0 11.0 13.0
Chris Sale 13.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 14.0
Manny Machado 24.0 11.0 12.0 14.0 15.0
Kris Bryant 17.0 13.0 16.0 18.0 16.0
Anthony Rizzo 14.0 22.0 14.0 17.0 17.0
Freddie Freeman 22.0 20.0 22.0 16.0 18.5
Corey Kluber 15.0 19.0 19.0 27.0 18.5
Josh Donaldson 20.0 18.0 23.0 20.0 20.0
Jose Ramirez 18.0 28.0 18.0 22.0 21.0
Francisco Lindor 21.0 23.0 27.0 19.0 22.0
Aaron Judge 28.0 16.0 21.0 26.0 23.0
J.D. Martinez 26.0 26.0 20.0 21.0 24.0
Dee Gordon 16.0 34.0 24.0 25.0 25.0

 

image.thumb.png.26ab43bae6621783f37ec5121c77d5ef.png

 

Four drafts isn't a lot of data, and the market will change a lot between now and draft season, but I think this gives a decent look at what the market is like right now.

 

Please post or PM the full list.

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6 minutes ago, wily mo said:

not entirely serious. but, like... what if i was

 

You'd be overpaying by at least 3-4 rounds?  He's had a crazy good year, but he's 29, and with the uncertainty surrounding his eye condition, there's no way he belongs in anyone's top 25, let alone the first round.  I can see the case for his current ADP of ~75 being unduly pessimistic, but between those risk factors and the depth of the OF position, there's no reason to pay that much to get him.

 

4 minutes ago, hailtoyourvictor said:

Please post or PM the full list.

 

The mock drafts aren't over yet, so the data past the first few rounds is incomplete.  I plan on doing a full post with a deeper dive on the numbers when the mock drafts are done.

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21 minutes ago, jfazz23 said:

pham over betts...dead SRS

 

bold prediction 2018...pham finishes ahead of betts

Lol *saved for posterity 

 

Picking a career minor leaguer who will be 30 next season to finish ahead of Mookie again is bold. Looking forward to revisiting this one. 

 

As for 1st rounders, seems 

Trout

Altuve

Goldy

is a pretty safe top tier. Then it seems there’s a *consensus next ~5/6 with 

Arenado

Bryce

Mookie

Blackmon

Votto

Stanton

 

Then I think there’s literally about 15 guys I’d consider in the next tier and could see going in any number of directions. 

You always want the top picks anyway, but getting one of those top 3, plus possibly 2 of these guys in “tier 3” is pretty sexy in standard snake drafts.

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A ranking of the first round that doesn't include any pitchers is defensible, but it certainly can't be called a "consensus."  At least Kershaw and one of the other three high-end aces is going in the first round of nearly every draft in 2018.

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9 minutes ago, tonycpsu said:

A ranking of the first round that doesn't include any pitchers is defensible, but it certainly can't be called a "consensus."  At least Kershaw and one of the other three high-end aces is going in the first round of nearly every draft in 2018.

Well I only listed 9 names there. That leaves room for 3 SP in the 1st round, if people choose. To me they’re definitely part of that next tier, any of which could go 10-12.

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3 hours ago, svtballa said:

I might be high on Correa but hes in my top 8.  SS is just a shallow position this year and I want stock in him

 

SS is shallow?

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