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2018 First Rounders Discussion

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THis is my first round

 

1-trout 

2-altuve

3-arenado

4-goldschmidt 

5-Blackmon 

6-Harper 

7-rizzo (a few slots down without 2b like he has in yahoo)

8-betts

9-turner

10-votto

11-stanton

12-if this is the turn I take correa plus one of the big four pitchers (Kluber, sale, Kershaw, scherzer). 

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Two names I don't see on many of these lists are:  Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor

 

How far away are they from missing the cut?

 

I honestly might rather have Freeman than Bryant or Stanton next year and the fact he'll be 1B/3B sure doesn't hurt (in yahoo anyway)

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Freeman missed 3B on ESPN by 4 appearances. He and Rizzo are going to cause a lot of "ranking" confusion between people here on different platforms.

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On 10/3/2017 at 9:49 AM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Im sure a lot of people play in 10 game positional leagues, but I'm willing to bet its well below the amount of people who use the default 20 or 5.   On EPSN and Yahoo you can't change the default position requirement and overwhelmingly people play on yahoo or ESPN with others sprinkled in and NFBC and CBS are among those (where you can't change the settings either).  The number of people playing on fantrax or onroto and then setting it to 10 games is a clear minority.   10 is better than 5 IMO, so better than yahoo. 

 

I think a lot of people are going to get cut with Rizzo in yahoo leagues thinking they have unlocked some secret advantage by getting him at 2nd.  If you play in a deep yahoo league with MI and CI his value is clearly strengthened by being able to play him in 5 seperate spots.  That being said, I think Jose Ramirez is a better bet for average and steals and has 3b instead of the deeper 1b. 

 

The people really benefitting from Rizzo are the ones in yahoo keeper leagues. Congrats. 

I would say the plurality is 20

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With Kershaw getting hurt again this year, and the continued greatness of Scherzer and the great years that Sale and Kluber had, I could see a P-less first round in many drafts, where owners will be fine getting 1 of them in the 2nd round and be OK with whichever one falls to them. 

 

Looking at last years ADP, not that many changes in likely first round in terms of who the players are.  Donaldson will fall out, maybe 1 of the pitchers and Blackmon and Turner enter. 

 

Last year across the different hosts Bryant went 5th, I dont see him falling to the 2nd round.  Its kind of like the Bryce Harper even when he was coming off a down or disappointing year his combined talent and the fact he is a mancrush candidate usually means his ADP doesnt drop as much as some.  

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3 minutes ago, parrothead said:

With Kershaw getting hurt again this year, and the continued greatness of Scherzer and the great years that Sale and Kluber had, I could see a P-less first round in many drafts, where owners will be fine getting 1 of them in the 2nd round and be OK with whichever one falls to them. 

 

Looking at last years ADP, not that many changes in likely first round in terms of who the players are.  Donaldson will fall out, maybe 1 of the pitchers and Blackmon and Turner enter. 

 

Last year across the different hosts Bryant went 5th, I dont see him falling to the 2nd round.  Its kind of like the Bryce Harper even when he was coming off a down or disappointing year his combined talent and the fact he is a mancrush candidate usually means his ADP doesnt drop as much as some.  

 

Agreed, I don't see Bryant falling to the 2nd round. Even in this down year (for him) he OPSed .942 so his plate approach is still elite and he suffered from some bad RBI luck.

 

Weird how so many people are willing to drop Bryant to the 2nd but keep Betts, who barely managed to OPS above .800 on the season (and toiled in the .770s for most of the year). If it comes down to Bryant vs. Betts for me it's not even close who I'm going with. 

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3 hours ago, LJJr said:

Two names I don't see on many of these lists are:  Freddie Freeman and Francisco Lindor

 

How far away are they from missing the cut?

 

I honestly might rather have Freeman than Bryant or Stanton next year and the fact he'll be 1B/3B sure doesn't hurt (in yahoo anyway)

I think Lindor will push to 1st round in some leagues, certainly in the first half of the 2nd round at the latest, Freeman probably somewhere 20-30ADP kind of that last 1/3rd of the 2nd round to first half of the 3rd.  

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16 hours ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Both NFBC and FantasyPros had altuve ahead of Bryant. In fact if you just google "2017 fantasy baseball ADP" the first 3 entries all have altuve over Bryant. Altuve was the #1 player in 2016. 

Razzball and Yahoo had Bryant>Altuve.

 

Updated rankings all have Altuve, obviously. But, I'm talking before the season began. And, I know Altuve was #1 last year, as I owned him, but I still think KB was more coveted April 1st of this year. Doesn't matter now, but seemed that was the consensus then. 

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3 minutes ago, MugsyBogues said:

Razzball and Yahoo had Bryant>Altuve.

 

Updated rankings all have Altuve, obviously. But, I'm talking before the season began. And, I know Altuve was #1 last year, as I owned him, but I still think KB was more coveted April 1st of this year. Doesn't matter now, but seemed that was the consensus then. 

 

 

Sorry, but you are simply not understanding this.

 

I was not talking about updated rankings. Literally google "2017 Fantasy Baseball ADP"  Razball is "rankings" not ADP.  You said Bryant was a "consensus" top 3 pick.  You are wrong.

 

 Bryant was in no way a consensus top 3 pick.  Did some rankers have him #2 or #3? Sure. Did some people draft him 2 or 3? For sure  But ADP says differently about draft trends.  Betts and Altuve had higher ADPs in just about every place that offers ADP info.

 

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13 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Sorry, but you are simply not understanding this.

 

I was not talking about updated rankings. Literally google "2017 Fantasy Baseball ADP"  Razball is "rankings" not ADP.  You said Bryant was a "consensus" top 3 pick.  You are wrong.

 

 Bryant was in no way a consensus top 3 pick.  Did some rankers have him #2 or #3? Sure. Did some people draft him 2 or 3? For sure  But ADP says differently about draft trends.  Betts and Altuve had higher ADPs in just about every place that offers ADP info.

 

Fantrax disagrees, but I'll concede. Altuve was more desired than KB, I guess. ^_^

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11 minutes ago, MugsyBogues said:

Fantrax disagrees, but I'll concede. Altuve was more desired than KB, I guess. ^_^

 

Can't find Fantrax ADP data, link?  Seems to be removed from 2017 leagues when you search players and sort by ADP.

 

Anyway, I think you get my point now.  Trout was nearly consensus #1.  Kershaw did go #1 in a lot of leagues and that paid off vs Trout. Even if you stick by "I never draft a pitcher in round 1", lots of people saw Kershaw as the home run play last offseason. In NFBC (which are big money leagues), Kershaw was #2 on ADP but from my memory the debate was usually Altuve or Betts with #2 pick. Arenado and Bryant were both guys who got into the mix every once in a while.  I think rotoworld had an "Arenado should be #1 article". 

 

Bryant is great, no disrespect. I was shocked to see his K rate was under 20% this year, thats pretty amazing. 

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20 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Bryant is great, no disrespect. I was shocked to see his K rate was under 20% this year, thats pretty amazing. 

I feel like his power was sapped due to injury. I think he bounces back in a major way. We'll see. 

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24 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

Can't find Fantrax ADP data, link?  Seems to be removed from 2017 leagues when you search players and sort by ADP.

 

Anyway, I think you get my point now.  Trout was nearly consensus #1.  Kershaw did go #1 in a lot of leagues and that paid off vs Trout. Even if you stick by "I never draft a pitcher in round 1", lots of people saw Kershaw as the home run play last offseason. In NFBC (which are big money leagues), Kershaw was #2 on ADP but from my memory the debate was usually Altuve or Betts with #2 pick. Arenado and Bryant were both guys who got into the mix every once in a while.  I think rotoworld had an "Arenado should be #1 article". 

 

Bryant is great, no disrespect. I was shocked to see his K rate was under 20% this year, thats pretty amazing. 

Fantrax list here

 

And, I hear ya. Good talk. I was wrong. I thought KB was consensus #3 which he obviously wasn't. 

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Don't see how an Arizona-signed JD Martinez doesn't go at least in back end of 1st or beginning of 2nd.  He was probably the most dominant player in fantasy the last 2 months.  If I'm picking 12th I don't think there are 12 guys I'd rather have if he's in Arizona in that lineup with Goldy.

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4 minutes ago, The Waker said:

Don't see how an Arizona-signed JD Martinez doesn't go at least in back end of 1st or beginning of 2nd.  He was probably the most dominant player in fantasy the last 2 months.  If I'm picking 12th I don't think there are 12 guys I'd rather have if he's in Arizona in that lineup with Goldy.

 

While he had an amazing time in AZ, I think it's unfair to expect that production to be his standard AZ production, even if he's there for a year. They are also adding a humidor. Probably a 2nd rounder for me, but I also don't think it's insane to draft him at 12. 

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

While he had an amazing time in AZ, I think it's unfair to expect that production to be his standard AZ production, even if he's there for a year. They are also adding a humidor. Probably a 2nd rounder for me, but I also don't think it's insane to draft him at 12. 

 

Well him being 12th INCLUDES a drop in production from his last two months.  Otherwise I would have said 1.   He is a late bloomer that also had a great year in 2015 and a pretty good year in 2016.  

 

Humidor thing is a great point though and needs to be brought up with Goldy too.  However, they said it was going to be installed this year as well.  I'll believe it when I see it - they know fans want to see homers.

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1 hour ago, The Waker said:

 

Well him being 12th INCLUDES a drop in production from his last two months.  Otherwise I would have said 1.   He is a late bloomer that also had a great year in 2015 and a pretty good year in 2016.  

You would draft JD Martinez 1st if he hits 50HR? You're nuts.

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1 hour ago, The Waker said:

 

Well him being 12th INCLUDES a drop in production from his last two months.  Otherwise I would have said 1.   He is a late bloomer that also had a great year in 2015 and a pretty good year in 2016.  

 

Humidor thing is a great point though and needs to be brought up with Goldy too.  However, they said it was going to be installed this year as well.  I'll believe it when I see it - they know fans want to see homers.

Really 1st overall?  

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1 hour ago, Low and Away said:

Really 1st overall?  

 

If he kept up his recent production?  Uh yeah.  He'd hit 80 homeruns

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1 hour ago, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

You would draft JD Martinez 1st if he hits 50HR? You're nuts.

 

Please see above.

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3 hours ago, The Waker said:

Don't see how an Arizona-signed JD Martinez doesn't go at least in back end of 1st or beginning of 2nd.  He was probably the most dominant player in fantasy the last 2 months.  If I'm picking 12th I don't think there are 12 guys I'd rather have if he's in Arizona in that lineup with Goldy.

this whole situation I have stated before reminds me of the Cespedes situation when he was nearly an MVP after moving to the Mets. The switch in leagues just ambushed teams pitching staff and pitchers need time to adjust....with that said hope JD signs with the Rox.

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Just now, BlueJaysIn2030 said:

So does that mean Stanton is #1?

 

What part of "IF HE KEPT UP HIS PRODUCTION FROM LAST 2 MONTHS" don't you get?  It was 29 homers in 59 games and above .300 or something - anyone would be stupid not to draft him 1 if he continued that next year.  This was in response to the poster before saying "he's not going to keep up his production from last 2 months".  Which is of course correct.  I wasn't assuming he would continue that pace when I said I think he's potentially a late first/early 2nd round pick in 12 team leagues.

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10 minutes ago, XxxOilOverloadxxX said:

this whole situation I have stated before reminds me of the Cespedes situation when he was nearly an MVP after moving to the Mets. The switch in leagues just ambushed teams pitching staff and pitchers need time to adjust....with that said hope JD signs with the Rox.

J.D.'s switch was different.  He was actually pretty bad when he first joined Arizona.  He would hit the occasional HR, but his average for them was around .220 until he went berserk.  Maybe the pitchers will adjust, but he definitely didn't go crazy right away.  That's how nuts his last 2-3 weeks were.

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Is there any more reason to believe the AZ “humidor” story this year than any other year?

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