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EmbargoLifted

2018 First Rounders Discussion

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15 minutes ago, Fiveohnine said:

Is there any more reason to believe the AZ “humidor” story this year than any other year?

 

Yes.  It was really never a big story up until this year. So I think insinuating that its been an issue every year is not accurate.  The first I heard about it was this year and it was rumored to happen around ASB and once ASB hit they promptly said it was going to be pushed back to next year.  I believe it's already fully functional, they just haven't used it for ball games. It probably makes more sense to do it at the start of a season than in the middle of one.   Could it still not happen? Sure. But yes, I think it's likelier in 2018 than ever before.

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On 9/30/2017 at 10:47 PM, colepenhagen said:

whats not safe about turner? he got hit in the wrist... im not labeling him inj prone or docking him anything... he had a minor leg/groin inj that was minimal

his floor is higher than mookies if both play 150+ games

 

anyways will be interesting to see where harpers adp will be as some will still have him top 5-6 and some will not touch him in the 1st rd (maybe at the turn)

 

the large majority of his value is tied to his steals (a stat that has a lot of season to season volatility) 

 

don't get me wrong the talent is tantalizing ... but his floor is too low to be a first round/$35+ player IMO. 

 

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2 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

the large majority of his value is tied to his steals (a stat that has a lot of season to season volatility) 

 

don't get me wrong the talent is tantalizing ... but his floor is too low to be a first round/$35+ player IMO. 

 

Really his floor, provided he plays close to a 150 games, is close to .280/100/20/60/60. All Turner will hurt you in is rbis. Put Eaton in front of him and raise the ribis. Just my opinion but the 60+ steals ranks him higher them Betts as I can make up the difference in RBI and HR.

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On 10/4/2017 at 1:40 PM, brockpapersizer said:

 

Can't find Fantrax ADP data, link?  Seems to be removed from 2017 leagues when you search players and sort by ADP.

 

Anyway, I think you get my point now.  Trout was nearly consensus #1.  Kershaw did go #1 in a lot of leagues and that paid off vs Trout. Even if you stick by "I never draft a pitcher in round 1", lots of people saw Kershaw as the home run play last offseason. In NFBC (which are big money leagues), Kershaw was #2 on ADP but from my memory the debate was usually Altuve or Betts with #2 pick. Arenado and Bryant were both guys who got into the mix every once in a while.  I think rotoworld had an "Arenado should be #1 article". 

 

Bryant is great, no disrespect. I was shocked to see his K rate was under 20% this year, thats pretty amazing. 

Yes in NFBC I drafted Kershaw 2nd and I always take a top 4 or 5 SP and another top 12 SP in the first few rounds. Two aces every year always seems to put me in contention for winning the league. Kershaw/Strasburg were my 2 this season 

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Trea Turner is really in a league of his own fantasy wise. 

13 minutes ago, Low and Away said:

Really his floor, provided he plays close to a 150 games, is close to .280/100/20/60/60. All Turner will hurt you in is rbis. Put Eaton in front of him and raise the ribis. Just my opinion but the 60+ steals ranks him higher them Betts as I can make up the difference in RBI and HR.

Exactly 60 steals and slashing 280/100/maybe 20/ 60/ 60 is unbelievable.  The steals and avg along with lots of runs trumps the HR/ RBI arguement any day for me so I agree with your logic 100%

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The depth charts projection system has Trea Turner at 

150g, 630 pa, 16 hr, 94 r, 67 rbi,

49 steals

 

that seems reasonable to me.

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2 minutes ago, brockpapersizer said:

Turner feels more like a 15 hr guy rather than 20.

I agree he is probably less than 20 HR but more than 100 runs. RBIs can be unpredictable somewhat.

 

Turner vs Betts in my mind isnt that tough IMO. But just depends on ur preference in player type. 

 Betts  beats him by 10 home runs and turner steals probably 2x what Betts will.  

Both hit for similar Avg and I think Turner scores more runs next year. 

 

Runs and 2x SB amount over Hr and RBI. That's me predicting Turner hits 15 and betts 25, Turner 60ish SB . Betts 25ish 

 

 

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Betts has back to back to back seasons of elite track record and has a well rounded game. even if betts stops stealing bases, he's a .290/25/100/100 player .. Trea Turner hasn't even completed a full healthy major league season yet. There's no comparison whatsoever. 

 

For anybody making a Trea Turner over Mookie Betts argument, please join one of my $500 yahoo pro leagues next season.

 

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1 minute ago, EmbargoLifted said:

The depth charts projection system has Trea Turner at 

150g, 630 pa, 16 hr, 94 r, 67 rbi,

49 steals

 

that seems reasonable to me.

I'd agree except SB.  He had 412 at bats with 46 steals this year in 98 games

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Just now, zstlj said:

I'd agree except SB.  He had 412 at bats with 46 steals this year in 98 games

 

Steals are volatile though .. a guy can lose a step, pull a hammy, come up with a bum ankle, and go on long stretches of not running to stay healthy/stay in the lineup. That's why i wouldn't want to invest in a guy whose major upside is steals. You want a guy who rolls out of bed slashing .300/.400/.500 with full healthy major league seasons on his resume in the first round. 

 

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1 minute ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Steals are volatile though .. a guy can lose a step, pull a hammy, come up with a bum ankle, and go on long stretches of not running to stay healthy/stay in the lineup. That's why i wouldn't want to invest in a guy whose major upside is steals. You want a guy who rolls out of bed slashing .300/.400/.500 with full healthy major league seasons on his resume in the first round. 

 

Ya I actually agree with you here, 100% can't miss in the 1st, I just am not feeling mookie at his adp vs turners plus eligibility somewhat. I'd probably take Betts over Turner if it was between only them but i can't say your wrong here, ur probably right.

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12 hours ago, EmbargoLifted said:

Betts has back to back to back seasons of elite track record and has a well rounded game. even if betts stops stealing bases, he's a .290/25/100/100 player .. Trea Turner hasn't even completed a full healthy major league season yet. There's no comparison whatsoever. 

 

For anybody making a Trea Turner over Mookie Betts argument, please join one of my $500 yahoo pro leagues next season.

 

 

homers are very easy to find now, Steals not so much, and SS vs OF, I take Turner, but I have never been a big Betts guy, and Betts had what I would consider a bust year

 

fwiw wouldn't touch either in the 1st

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Might sound crazy but if TT gets consideration for the first round, some thoughts have to given to Dee Gordon.

 

He clocked in at #6 on the ESPN player rater last year.   If he can somehow cut down on the # of caught stealing.  he could hit 70 SB, and he seems pretty legit as a .300 hitter with a boatload of runs scored.

 

Might pick him 11th or 12th.

 

 

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I don't understand the Blackmon vs Betts debate as Blackmon killed him in almost every stat and wasn't even too distant on SB.  Only think Betts has over him is the age factor.  But there's just too big a difference in player rating to go for Betts.

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I don't understand the Blackmon vs Betts debate as Blackmon killed him in almost every stat and wasn't even too distant on SB.  Only think Betts has over him is the age factor.  But there's just too big a difference in player rating to go for Betts.

 

Betts beat him the year before...

 

 

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2 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

Might sound crazy but if TT gets consideration for the first round, some thoughts have to given to Dee Gordon.

 

He clocked in at #6 on the ESPN player rater last year.   If he can somehow cut down on the # of caught stealing.  he could hit 70 SB, and he seems pretty legit as a .300 hitter with a boatload of runs scored.

 

Might pick him 11th or 12th.

 

 

 

Gordon doesn't offer the potential 15-20 homers though

 

I like Gordon though, but can get him in the 3-4th imo either way

 

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3 hours ago, KingJoffrey said:

I don't understand the Blackmon vs Betts debate as Blackmon killed him in almost every stat and wasn't even too distant on SB.  Only think Betts has over him is the age factor.  But there's just too big a difference in player rating to go for Betts.

 

Betts had bad BABIP luck this season .. his xAVG was .295 ... that one difference would put Betts among the top handful of hitters in terms of final ranking.  There's a really good chance Betts BABIP regresses to where it should be next season thus making him a borderline .300 hitter again. 

 

The question then comes down to .. what would you rather have .. Betts age 25 season, or Blackmon's age 32 season? When you consider each player's last 3 years Betts seems like the better bet to stay healthy and return an elite season to me. 

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1 hour ago, Golden Spikes said:

 

Gordon doesn't offer the potential 15-20 homers though

 

I like Gordon though, but can get him in the 3-4th imo either way

 

 

You won't be able to get him past round 2 in standard roto leagues. I don't really like discussing h2h, because there are many strategies you can employ in h2h so rankings are pretty skewed.  Gordon Finished the 6th best player on the player rater.  In terms of categories, HRs are plentiful, SBs arent. You look at your roto standings, and you see teams are having 2 x or more homers they are steals.  Purely value, steals are twice as scarce (or more than home runs). 

 

I really don't think Dee Gordon in the first round is that bad.  You can find multiple guys you feel good about having 30 homers after round 10. 30 Steals?  I dunno. 

 

Then there's the batting average which is also super scarce.

 

Dee Gordon is very valuable. If your league downgrades steals in anyway (probably a good league), then his value shoots down, but I'm comfortable taking him in round 2, and I think he's not a bad turn option.

 

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Dodgers said:

Age only matters in a keeper league. I had Betts one spot on my outfield list over Blackmon in 2017 because of Betts 2016 year. Now I will have Blackmon over Betts by one spot most likely from their 2017 years. Love both of them though. In my keeper league id trade my Blackmon for Betts no question.

 

Age is a major factor in a player's projection (even in a single season). As guys get deeper into their 30s SB can fall off a cliff. So can stuff like bat speed, power, and health/durability. Blackmon is on the downward slope of the age curve where Betts is on the upward swing. Obviously Blackmon had the better season .. but given all of the factors here .. Betts seems super safe and a guy i would put my money on early .. i am SUPER conservative this early in the draft though. Willing to sacrifice upside for higher floor. This is a controversial philosophy it seems but the data supports that a bad first pick (a pitcher that only throws 125 innings, or a miguel cabrera esque collapse like this season) can absolutely destroy your chances of winning your league -- and it sways my rankings at the super high end.

 

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Just now, brockpapersizer said:

 

You won't be able to get him past round 2 in standard roto leagues. I don't really like discussing h2h, because there are many strategies you can employ in h2h so rankings are pretty skewed.  Gordon Finished the 6th best player on the player rater.  In terms of categories, HRs are plentiful, SBs arent. You look at your roto standings, and you see teams are having 2 x or more homers they are steals.  Purely value, steals are twice as scarce (or more than home runs). 

 

I really don't think Dee Gordon in the first round is that bad.  You can find multiple guys you feel good about having 30 homers after round 10. 30 Steals?  I dunno. 

 

Then there's the batting average which is also super scarce.

 

Dee Gordon is very valuable. If your league downgrades steals in anyway (probably a good league), then his value shoots down, but I'm comfortable taking him in round 2, and I think he's not a bad turn option.

 

 

 

 

you are right different settings and all, I want a guy in the 1st and 2nd to be 4 category potential guys though.  Gordon is great in 3, and dead in 2

 

I personally am in 6x6 where he loses eve more value. (OPS)

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Just now, Golden Spikes said:

 

you are right different settings and all, I want a guy in the 1st and 2nd to be 4 category potential guys though.  Gordon is great in 3, and dead in 2

 

I personally am in 6x6 where he loses eve more value. (OPS)

 

OK sure, adding a 6th category , and one that dee gordon is going to be sub average at,  is going to drop his value.  I also play in a league with those settings, so yeah, you love getting a guys with a good OPS and gets steals like an Altuve. Those guys are pretty hard to find, especially ones that are meaningful in steals. 

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34 minutes ago, EmbargoLifted said:

 

Betts had bad BABIP luck this season .. his xAVG was .295 ... that one difference would put Betts among the top handful of hitters in terms of final ranking.  There's a really good chance Betts BABIP regresses to where it should be next season thus making him a borderline .300 hitter again. 

 

The question then comes down to .. what would you rather have .. Betts age 25 season, or Blackmon's age 32 season? When you consider each player's last 3 years Betts seems like the better bet to stay healthy and return an elite season to me. 

Counting this year and going back two years more (making three years total) Blackman has played in more games.  So just using games played the last three years why does Betts have a better chance of staying healthy? 

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In my opinion:

 

1. Mike Trout

2. Jose Altuve

3. Paul Goldschmidt

4. Nolan Arenado

5. Bryce Harper

6. Charlie Blackmon

7. Giancarlo Stanton

8. Mookie Betts

9. Freddie Freeman

10. Carlos Correa

11. Josh Donaldson

12. Trea Turner

 

Judge, Votto, Machado, Rizzo, JDM are right in the mix at the end of the round though

 

Purposefully left out pitchers

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16 minutes ago, Dodgers said:

I dont care about age when talking 31 year old dominating.nelson cruz type of age id be careful. Next year redraft leagues blackmons age does nothing to me. 

 

Nelson Cruz is a major exception .. nowhere near the rule.

 

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