Mikhov

Serge Ibaka Outlook 2017-18 Season

Recommended Posts

After being traded to Toronto, Ibaka averaged:

 

14.2 PPG 6.8 rpg, 1.8 3PM with 1.4 bpg 

(45.9 % fg, 39.8% from three, 88.2% ft) with <2 TO in ~30 mpg.

- non factor in assists and steals

 

during the regular season and slightly increased his fg% and bpg to 46.2% fg /1.7 bpg during the playoffs.

 

What makes him appeal to me is the threes-blocks combo, the latter can easily increase along with his rebounding as a small ball C. (Since Casey caps JV’s mins).

 

Is he strictly limited to punt points / assists builds? (Especially since he isn’t much of a fg anchor anymore) How else would you integrate him into your builds?

 

ps: idk why the fonts change size

Edited by Mikhov

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Why punt assists? You should have assists secured already if you are getting him 6th/7th round or something.
Ibaka is an asset that complement other players in your team. Especially when you have Millsap(whos not a shotblocker) picked as your 2nd big, Ibaka comes here huge.

I have a similar build. (Myles,Millsap,Ibaka)


If he manages to stay around 15 PPG with 1.8 3s and  1.5 BPG thats easy top 50 with his percentages.

Edited by dekciw_1
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's not limited to any build quite honestly. Don't take him if you're punting blocks yeah, but he doesn't automatically force you to punt something like DeAndre for example. But yeah, his best fit are indeed punt pts and/or assisst teams. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, dekciw_1 said:

Why punt assists? You should have assists secured already if you are getting him 6th/7th round or something.
Ibaka is an asset that complement other players in your team. Especially when you have Millsap(whos not a shotblocker) picked as your 2nd big, Ibaka comes here huge.

I have a similar build. (Myles,Millsap,Ibaka)


If he manages to stay around 15 PPG with 1.8 3s and  1.5 BPG thats easy top 50 with his percentages.

highly unlikely to be there in 6th+ rd... seems like right around a top 50 pick

 

the declining blks has be a bit hesitant but im a sucker for bigs that can contribute blks/threes/ft% but i have had a hard time making up for the lack of reb with turner/kristaps/ibaka

 

i guess adams and WCS later can help with boards but hurt the ft% a little

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, colepenhagen said:

highly unlikely to be there in 6th+ rd... seems like right around a top 50 pick

 

the declining blks has be a bit hesitant but im a sucker for bigs that can contribute blks/threes/ft% but i have had a hard time making up for the lack of reb with turner/kristaps/ibaka

 

i guess adams and WCS later can help with boards but hurt the ft% a little


Ibaka fell late 6th in my league.

Yeah it is a bit difficult, but thats what balancing the squad is. You must have off-position rebounds to fill in however. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While many are down on Ibaka, I think he will have a great real life and fantasy season. Since being traded to toronto he hasn’t played many games with Lowry because he got injured for the last 20 games during the regular season and then for a few more during the playoffs. Training camp and all this time together is gonna do wonders for Ibaka who is not known for creating for himself and needs a good PG to set him up inside or out. 

Derozen also said that he will be taking more 3s which will hopefully clear up some room inside for Serge to operate. He’s the Raps best defensive player and Casey loves him some defence as he was the defensive coordinator for the Mavs championship team. After the trade, the coach stopped playing Valenchunas all together in the 4th, it was all Ibaka.

 

My prediction is 16 points, 7.5 rebounds and 1.7 blocks with 47%FG 1.7 3s. 

Im hoping that he will try hard in the first year of his big 3 year deal. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's on my DND for a dumb reason: if you're drafting him, you're depending on him to either win you blocks or at least keep you competitive in them.  Then he has a two game week starting March 26th, which is most leagues' championship week.  

 

So now you're probably losing that cat.  If you're not, it's because his blocks were superfluous to your team.  If your team doesn't need his blocks, why are you drafting him in the rounds he's going in the first place?

 

I'm just avoiding the strategic headache.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
31 minutes ago, Tom Chambers said:

He's on my DND for a dumb reason: if you're drafting him, you're depending on him to either win you blocks or at least keep you competitive in them.  Then he has a two game week starting March 26th, which is most leagues' championship week.  

 

So now you're probably losing that cat.  If you're not, it's because his blocks were superfluous to your team.  If your team doesn't need his blocks, why are you drafting him in the rounds he's going in the first place?

 

I'm just avoiding the strategic headache.

 

This is overthinking and getting way ahead of yourself don't you think?  You have to make it to championship week first.

Edited by El_Chingon
  • Like 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What's the point in drafting the guy and doing well only to f--- it up in the end?  No, I assume I'll be in the playoffs for every team I own.  If Ibaka fell to me in the 10th round or something, of course I'd take him.  But taking the guy to help you out in one particular cat over the rest of them, one that depends on a very small sample size, only to know in October that he's not going to help you in that cat that week makes no sense in H2H.

 

His projected z score for blocks is is 13th best in the league, according to BBM.  His score for everything else hovers right around average.  If this was a guy who helped out in a variety of cats or something, it'd be a different story.  But let's be honest: if you draft him, it's basically for his blocks.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

While I agree with some of you who don’t like ibaka cause he doesn’t get many counting stats and doesn’t dominate in anything. What I like about him is that he’s one of the top Cs at shooting 3s, 130+ , and he’s a great shot blocker at the same time 130+blocks for the season. All this while shooting an amazing FT%. All the other Cs that shoot 3s, get blocks and shoot a good FT% are early round studs. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I did the math and although I initially thought I would oppose Tom Chambers the math seems to lend some credence to his argument.  If you're playing in a 12 team league (assuming everyone is equally skilled) then you will win the championship a little more than 1 in 12 seasons.  If you are better than your opponents then perhaps you can win 1 in 10 seasons and make it to the finals 1 in 5.  Let's assume it's a $100 buy-in league and the payout structure is 600-400 (200 to third place or regular season leader).  Let's also assume that Ibaka's (or any other player's) weak final schedule actually costs you a championship you would have otherwise won.  That would mean he costs you on average $200 per 10 seasons or $20 per season.  That's 1/5th of your buy-in which is an absurdly high cost.  

 

I think the weakest assumption is that someone with a light finals schedule will actually be the determining factor in a matchup.  It relies on too many other variables.  For example, Ibaka may only play two games, but he could have career games due to the Raptors vying for playoff positioning.  Conversely, the player whom you drafted instead of Ibaka could be rested down the stretch.  We don't really know.    

 

His light finals schedule certainly does not put Ibaka in the DND category for me.  I'm fairly high on him because I think he's being underdrafted and his understated efficiency is very valuable in punt assists builds.  But if it's close between Ibaka and another player I think playoff schedule could be one of many factors to consider.

  • Like 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

My issue is that as a top contributor in a cat and just average everywhere else, your team is going to be very dependent on his blocks.  That's why you're drafting him and he's the difference between your team being okay in blocks and good/great in blocks.  Or the difference in being bad in blocks and being okay in them. 

 

He brings other things to table (like threes, like good FT% even if in little volume) that are nice in light of his blocks.  If not for his blocks,  those things wouldn't be good enough on their own to make him a top 100 player. 

 

If I  came from the future and told you that all other things being equal,  you were going to lose a cat you otherwise won or were at least competitive in,  based upon your 5th or 6th round, would you change your pick to mitigate the chance of that? Probably.  Am I just looking at it statistically speaking and ignoring that anything can happen?  Of course, but to some extent we all are. 

 

Again, if this was Middleton or someone that helped you out incrementally in many cats it would be a different story.  But Ibaka's value is highly tied to this one low variance cat (as in, you either get a block or you don't; you don't either get 10 points or zero, you can get 8 or 9 or whatever).  And if you can stomach missing his blocks that week then why draft him?  Just to trade him in January or February to someone who doesn't know better?  Too risky for my tastes. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Got him in the 5th round, I think that's a solid position for him. Where did everyone else get him?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think he's below average in real. Even his defence is average at best. In saying that as long as he does the same same thing as last year I'll  be content.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think his efficiency is overvalued, because what advantage give you his FT% if he gets less than 2 attempts per game? And his FG% is not too high for big man. Ibaka is more efficient than average player approximately with the same value, but for me it don't compensate his low assists and steals, also relatively low rebounds.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
27 minutes ago, apatas said:

I think his efficiency is overvalued, because what advantage give you his FT% if he gets less than 2 attempts per game? And his FG% is not too high for big man. Ibaka is more efficient than average player approximately with the same value, but for me it don't compensate his low assists and steals, also relatively low rebounds.


Where would you consider picking him and what PF/C players would you pick ahead of him after 5th round?

Edited by dekciw_1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, dekciw_1 said:


Where would you consider picking him and what PF/C players would you pick ahead of him after 5th round?

After 5th round, does it mean that 61st pick and later? Then there is not any bigs better than Ibaka. In my prerank Ibaka is 58th. I thought you put him higher - like TOP50. The nearest big to Ibaka is Aldridge. And what is strange - nobody talks about Aldridge, but he is even more efficient as Ibaka (higher FG%, FT and TO very similar). Aldridge has more points and rebs, Ibaka more threes and blocks, both are weak in assists and steals. But LMA don't draw such an attention as Ibaka. Why?

Edited by apatas

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, apatas said:

After 5th round, does it mean that 61st pick and later? Then there is not any bigs better than Ibaka. In my prerank Ibaka is 58th. I thought you put him higher - like TOP50.


Brolo(39), Nurk, Love and Horford(47) are all gone in mid 4th round pick in mocks.

The ones left after that are Dieng, Aldridge, Vucevic, Deandre, Capela etc. Im easily taking Ibaka ahead all of them. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/6/2017 at 4:44 PM, dekciw_1 said:

Why punt assists? You should have assists secured already if you are getting him 6th/7th round or something.
Ibaka is an asset that complement other players in your team. Especially when you have Millsap(whos not a shotblocker) picked as your 2nd big, Ibaka comes here huge.

I have a similar build. (Myles,Millsap,Ibaka)


If he manages to stay around 15 PPG with 1.8 3s and  1.5 BPG thats easy top 50 with his percentages.

 

The two builds I mentioned maximize his strengths and account for his weaknesses - but yeah that doesn’t mean that he doesn’t have value in others.

 

I personally have him slotted as the last man in that mid round big man tier, full of lumbering three point shooters who nab swats (Gasol, Horford, Bro-Lo) because he does not get the points, assists or helps anchor fg% like the others do.

 

Regardless, I’m happy to draft him in the fifties. At worst, he’s a trade chip whose name has weight and at best, he supplements what players like Millsap lack as you mentioned.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, dekciw_1 said:


Brolo(39), Nurk, Love and Horford(47) are all gone in mid 4th round pick in mocks.

The ones left after that are Dieng, Aldridge, Vucevic, Deandre, Capela etc. Im easily taking Ibaka ahead all of them. 

Now I understood. No, I don't take him ahead all of them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, apatas said:

After 5th round, does it mean that 61st pick and later? Then there is not any bigs better than Ibaka. In my prerank Ibaka is 58th. I thought you put him higher - like TOP50. The nearest big to Ibaka is Aldridge. And what is strange - nobody talks about Aldridge, but he is even more efficient as Ibaka (higher FG%, FT and TO very similar). Aldridge has more points and rebs, Ibaka more threes and blocks, both are weak in assists and steals. But LMA don't draw such an attention as Ibaka. Why?

 

Probably because of the amount of difference in three's. 0.3 for Aldridge and 1.6 for ibaka. 

 

Edited by Pirate

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 hours ago, apatas said:


 Aldridge has more points and rebs, Ibaka more threes and blocks, both are weak in assists and steals. But LMA don't draw such an attention as Ibaka. Why?
 


You really gonna compare points and rebounds with threes and blocks? Really?

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 hours ago, dekciw_1 said:


You really gonna compare points and rebounds with threes and blocks? Really?

Why not? Two cats against two is like draw. All stats have equal value, if I win you 5:4 (just example) what different it makes what five cats I win?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, apatas said:

After 5th round, does it mean that 61st pick and later? Then there is not any bigs better than Ibaka. In my prerank Ibaka is 58th. I thought you put him higher - like TOP50. The nearest big to Ibaka is Aldridge. And what is strange - nobody talks about Aldridge, but he is even more efficient as Ibaka (higher FG%, FT and TO very similar). Aldridge has more points and rebs, Ibaka more threes and blocks, both are weak in assists and steals. But LMA don't draw such an attention as Ibaka. Why?

 

Ibaka contributes in harder to attain categories (blocks / threes) and does so in volume. With the amount of threes he has been taking so far, he could possibly average 2+ 3PM.

 

Using last season’s stats:

When it comes to team composition, it’s easier for an opposing team to match or exceed Aldridge’s 3 ppg and 1 rpg advantage over Ibaka’s 1.3 3PM and .4 bpg

 

 

Edited by Mikhov
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.