Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

parrothead

Lucas Giolito 2018 Outlook

Recommended Posts

A top 5 prospect in the game, really had some struggles in spring and early on this season in the minors and was still kind of throwing in some clunkers then called up and had a great what 7-8 game stretch, at a time when ratios were skyrocketing, this guy throws some elite numbers up there.  The overall K per was not elite like you might expect from top prospect type, but there is a lot people are gonna latch onto:  the pedigree of a top 5 prospect who actually puts up numbers for what a 1/4 of the season?  I am going to be very interested to see where he is going ADP wise come March 2018.  My guess, given two factors above is he will be a little to rich for my blood in the auction and probably get overdrafted a bit.  

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it was really odd.  its like we all forgot about him but then he had a great couple of months up here.

 

interested in seeing how people feel about him going into next year

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

it was really odd.  its like we all forgot about him but then he had a great couple of months up here.

 

interested in seeing how people feel about him going into next year

You are right, it was odd.  Normally owners cling to those upside guys, but he actually got dropped in June, then when teams could do an add-on from free agent pool and often times teams out of the mix are grabbing a guy like him, he still didnt get picked up (granted that was late July before his run)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/10/2017 at 7:54 PM, parrothead said:

A top 5 prospect in the game, really had some struggles in spring and early on this season in the minors and was still kind of throwing in some clunkers then called up and had a great what 7-8 game stretch, at a time when ratios were skyrocketing, this guy throws some elite numbers up there.  The overall K per was not elite like you might expect from top prospect type, but there is a lot people are gonna latch onto:  the pedigree of a top 5 prospect who actually puts up numbers for what a 1/4 of the season?  I am going to be very interested to see where he is going ADP wise come March 2018.  My guess, given two factors above is he will be a little to rich for my blood in the auction and probably get overdrafted a bit.  

 

 

Going by guys who I feel had the same type of vibes in 2017 as Giolito may in 2018:

Gausman - 131, SP33

Harvey - 136, SP36
McCullers - 142, SP37

 

I'd expect his ADP to be between 130-150 and you'll be drafting him as an SP3/SP4 if you want him.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Numbers-wise, I'm thinking 3.85/1.25 and 165 Ks. He should be a solid value pick now that the luster's worn off.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

these numbers from 2017 stand out. 92 LOB%, .189 BABIP.

his fastball in 2016 was 93.4 MPH. his fastball in 2017 dropped to 92.1 MPH.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By the end of 2017, it looked like Giolito had found better command of his fastball and worked in a slurve and a changeup that also kept batters off balance. In his previous stints he was overthrowing everything and his curve had so much break that the umps didn’t call them strikes. It seems like he tamed everything down a tad and finally pitched. Also, he had much better mound presence. Dusty wasn’t staring at him from the Senators bench anymore and it seemed like he was much calmer. By improving his mechanics and having a better strategy to get batters out he actually succeeded. I’m looking forward to seeing him pick up where he left off, now that he knows he doesn’t have to strike everyone out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, SpecialFNK said:

these numbers from 2017 stand out. 92 LOB%, .189 BABIP.

his fastball in 2016 was 93.4 MPH. his fastball in 2017 dropped to 92.1 MPH.

 

Yeah, he had a 4.94 FIP last season, was way more lucky than good. And that velocity is well off what he was hitting in the minors when the hype was big.

 

I don't see any sign of the elite prospect who was supposed to obliterate MLB batters with triple-digit heat and an untouchable curverball. He probably has the potential to become a solid mid-level starter, but at his ADP you can get someone who already is one.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yep, 4.49 SIERA and near 5 FIP are much more indicative of his 2017 performance than his 2.38 ERA .

 

The 19% K rate is concerning not just becasue of the lack of K's, but also becasue if hes allowing that much contact there is no possible way hes going to keep his WHIP near 1.00 (like it was last year) over any meaningful sample . Somewhere in the 1.30 range is much more likely.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 hours ago, cs3 said:

Yep, 4.49 SIERA and near 5 FIP are much more indicative of his 2017 performance than his 2.38 ERA .

 

The 19% K rate is concerning not just becasue of the lack of K's, but also becasue if hes allowing that much contact there is no possible way hes going to keep his WHIP near 1.00 (like it was last year) over any meaningful sample . Somewhere in the 1.30 range is much more likely.

 

Still think the sample is small and he's super young. He's worth a flier, imo. I don't know if he'll ever be the #1 some people touted (always viewed him as a #2 at most, but likely a #3), but honestly... not many guys get hyped for no reason. Sometimes it clicks, sometimes it doesn't.

 

I could see him doing a 150IP with a 3.6-3.9ERA to go along with a 1.30WHIP. Wouldn't shock me if he had a K per 9 with that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lucas Giolito is an interesting cat…he has long been one of the top pitching prospects in baseball but has had some major ups and downs along the way before exhausting his prospect status after an August call-up last season. In that 7 start sample, Giolito posted a 2.38 ERA which on the surface looks terrific, but underlying metrics didn’t support that figure as he posted just a 6.75 K/9, 2.38 BB/9, 1.59 HR/9, a very high 92% Left on Base rate, and a very low .189 BAPIP. His 4.94 FIP and 4.42 xFIP show that he was pretty darn lucky in that sample. Let’s take a deeper dive and see what Giolito is like underneath the hood.

Starting with the Fastball, Giolito threw his in the majors 59% of the time and it averaged 92.3 MPH. That’s a lot slower than his prospect reports had him throwing (upper 90’s). He attacked the zone with his fastball last season, posting a 56.7% zone rate. His 8.8% swinging strike rate was solid, and opponents only mustered a .197 batting average on the heater. Overall it was a solid pitch and was worth 0.9 runs above average in just those 7 starts.

Next up is the slider which he threw about 12% of the time. His Slider has some pretty good drop to it, helping him to generate a 58.3% ground-ball rate last season. That led to opponents only mustering a .095 average. The Whiff rate on it was decent at 10.87% and all told it was a plus pitch being worth 1.3 runs above-average in a small 7 start sample.

Next up the Changeup which was easily Giolito’s best pitch and what will likely drive his potential success in the majors going forward. He throws it roughly 17% of the time and he uses it early in counts on the edges. He got a ton of out-of-zone swings on it last year (42.9% o-swing rate) which led to a whopping 18.6% swinging strike rate. It also induces a ton of groundball contact (57.1 GB%). It does everything you want out of a pitch, get whiffs and induces weak groundball contact, and it was worth 3.8 runs above average in that 7 start sample which is truly impressive. That 3.8 runs above average would have ranked 12th best in baseball if it qualified which is just nuts considering how small the sample is to accrue value. I honestly think it has a chance to be one of the best changeups in baseball in the future.

Giolito also sports a sinker and it was another positive pitch for him as it was worth 1.4 runs above average. It had a really good whiff rate for a Sinker at 11.69%, but oddly it failed to generate groundballs (35.7% GB rate, 50% flyball rate). Similar to the changeup though, he got a lot of out-of-zone swings with it (42.9% O-swing%) so that’s encouraging and that helped limit opposing batters to a .167 batting average against the pitch.

Last up is his Curveball which if you’ve followed his prospect profile over the years, was long thought to be his best secondary offerings, often receiving 70 future grades. It’s a slow (78.2 MPH) 12-6 breaking curve that he threw just 10% of the time in the majors. In theory, it is his out pitch but reports I’ve read indicated that he was super inconsistent with it in terms of location and he didn’t feel comfortable throwing it at the majors. The results weren’t great at the major league level when he did throw it as it had a shockingly low 2.38% whiff rate and it was worth -2 runs above average. Good news is, like his other off-speed stuff, it did generate a really high 63.5 GB%. I hope his Curveball problems are something that he remedies for this season, as I think it’s the key to him achieving his strikeout ability upside.

Let's take a look at some of his plate discipline numbers:

- Giolito's Swinging-Strike% in his 7 starts was 10.1%. Among all pitchers who pitched at least 110 innings, a 10.1% swinging-strike rate would have ranked in a tie for 54th with Ervin Santana and Tanner Roark. That is ahead of names like Jeff Samardzija, Marcus Stroman, Gerrit Cole, and Jose Berrios.

- Giolito’s overall contact rate was 79.5%. Among all pitchers who pitched at least 110 innings, a 79.5% contact rate would have ranked in a tie for 69th best in the majors with Gerrit Cole. That would have ranked ahead of Madison Bumgarner, Jake Arrieta, and Jose Quintana.

-  Giolito's Zone-Contact rate was 88.5% Among all pitchers who pitched at least 110 innings, an 88.5% zone contact rate would have ranked 89th best in the majors. That would have ranked ahead of Zack Godley, Marcus Stroman, and Lance McCullers.
 

- Giolito's out-of-zone Contact rate was 64.1%. Among all pitchers who pitched at least 110 innings, a 64.1% out of zone contact rate would have ranked in a tie for 56th best in baseball with Jared Eickhoff and Drew Pomeranz. That mark is better than Justin Verlander, Gerrit Cole, and Jose Berrios.

None of these marks are particularly impressive, but they show that he has the skills to be a top 60ish SP as soon as this year. Also important to note that these marks were achieved while in his first extended stretch in the majors and without the full benefit of his Curveball which was long his best secondary on his prospect scouting reports but was ineffective at the majors. I think if he gets his curveball back, those numbers start to trend up towards a top 30 SP.

Overall, he’s still a work in progress and very much a lottery ticket for 2018 and beyond. I like that he’s got a fastball that he isn’t afraid to attack hitters with, he has multiple secondary offering that induces groundballs at a high rate and some have high whiff rates too (mainly the Changeup and Slider), and I also like that he has a ceiling that he hasn’t even come close to reaching his Curveball that was super well regarded as a prospect and that gives him upside far beyond what he’s shown thus far. I’m buying him in dynasty leagues while his value is still questioned, and hoping he figures out his curve and continues to show improved control. For 2018 alone, he may not be the best value at his current ADP of (NFBC ADP of 229) but it’s also not a killer to find out if he can take that next step.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 10/10/2017 at 5:54 PM, parrothead said:

A top 5 prospect in the game, really had some struggles in spring and early on this season in the minors and was still kind of throwing in some clunkers then called up and had a great what 7-8 game stretch, at a time when ratios were skyrocketing, this guy throws some elite numbers up there.  The overall K per was not elite like you might expect from top prospect type, but there is a lot people are gonna latch onto:  the pedigree of a top 5 prospect who actually puts up numbers for what a 1/4 of the season?  I am going to be very interested to see where he is going ADP wise come March 2018.  My guess, given two factors above is he will be a little to rich for my blood in the auction and probably get overdrafted a bit.  

 

 

Some good posts here pointing out the FIP/ERA discrepancy.

 

Something else to keep in mind, and apologies for being a Debbie Downer: he faced some really poor competition last year, both because of the teams he faced and because a bunch of those starts were vs. lineups with lots of September call ups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've had Giolito for awhile in my dynasty and it has been a roller coaster. There as a point last year where I thought he was getting to the point of being droppable. Took until August for him to start turning it around. I really hope he builds on the end of last year but I got off this ride and traded him for Danny Duffy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Threw another gem today.  Blanked Texas over 6 1/3.  Has had a really good spring so far.  Anything to see here?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/20/2018 at 6:08 PM, 89Topps said:

Threw another gem today.  Blanked Texas over 6 1/3.  Has had a really good spring so far.  Anything to see here?

Taking a flyer on his as my SP6... could be something, could be waiver wire.

 

Scary part is that he's already the "Ace" of the CHW staff

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I had read a tweet saying he's got a better feel for the curve ball this spring and is throwing that much more effectively.

 

I've been grabbing him in nearly the last round of mocks.  At that point, why not, right?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, midlip said:

Scary part is that he's already the "Ace" of the CHW staff

No way.

 

*checks CWS rotation*

 

Holy s---...

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

What did we think of his first start? Looked like he was throwing meatballs, was surprised he ended up with a QS.  In his defense, was apparently cold as balls out there

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nervous about throwing him out there today but I probably will 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, midlip said:

Nervous about throwing him out there today but I probably will 

 

But why? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO, and this is a pretty strong IMO, if you're in a league where Lucas Giolito (57.0%) is owned and Reynaldo Lopez (16.6%) is not owned, you should solve that issue yourself. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, taobball said:

IMO, and this is a pretty strong IMO, if you're in a league where Lucas Giolito (57.0%) is owned and Reynaldo Lopez (16.6%) is not owned, you should solve that issue yourself. 

 

Very interesting take. Thought people were pretty high of Giolito this year coupled by the strong spring....  Lopez sits on my wire and I just flagged him as a watch

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, midlip said:

 

Very interesting take. Thought people were pretty high of Giolito this year coupled by the strong spring....  Lopez sits on my wire and I just flagged him as a watch

 

Giolito had a solid spring and... 


Here's the thing -- whenever I'm being harsh on a player (or anything on a player) we're never talking about possibility. So of course I think Giolito could bounce back and be a solid pitcher who lives up to some hype. But ultimately, there's 150 (roughly) starters right now, and SOOOO many of them, Lopez being just one, are VERY interesting to me in the early goings, and I like to rotate my SPs a lot, and one that I'm just not interested in at all is Lucas Giolito.

 

Giolito's FB has just been largely ineffective compared to what Scouts thought it would be. And, in his first start, he didn't get a single Whiff on a whopping 28 Curves and Sliders. 


When it comes to repertoires, I like having pitches, or at times groups of pitches, that I can cling to and really lean on as something that I think a pitcher can build off of. For example, even in disastrous games, I can point to Kevin Gausman's big Fastball and whiff-nasty Splitter as reasons to move forward. I don't think the Fastball or really any pitch for Giolito makes me go "Damn, that's a really good pitch to build something off of." As a whole he's just not generating a ton of swing-and-miss contact, and hasn't throughout his MLB career.

 

When Giolito came back up in 2017, he did get a few more Fastball Whiffs, but he still didn't have a breaking pitch (10+% for Slider is pretty meh, Curve whiffs non-existent) and while the Change-Up performed well, again, we're talkinga bout a small sample at the end of the season. So at best you're hoping that the FB+CH combo from last year sticks, and we still haven't seen a big league Slider or Breaking ball. 

 

Again, that 28 Curves and Sliders in the first start with not generating a SINGLE whiff is concerning. I do talk on a lot of pitchers about just not having your best stuff any given start, and certainly that could have happened, but this isn't a single game evaluation, it's a single game evaluation that continues to confirm what we've seen throughout his career. 

 

I'm working on a full Wk1 Recap Post / Podcast rn, so I've finished recording on 10 Teams alphabetically, and here's just a handful of (off the cuff in terms of Ownership%'s) pitcher's that I would probably prefer taking a shot on over Lucas Giolito:

 

Mike Folty nay vich

Brandon McCarthy (-- I hesitated to put this one, but realistically I do talk up McCarthy and I think he has reasonable value. These are more close than preferring McCarthy, but gonna throw out an underowned name) 

Hector Velasquez (not a true tout, but I'm intrigued by his first start, and moreso than Giolito, so I would drop Giolito for Hector) 

Tyler Chatwood (--checked this one, Even ownership with Giolito +/- 0.5%)

Miguel Gonzalez (Like McCarthy, a little unsure about this one, but a career 3.97 ERA in 146 GS is probably underrated here, and his Splittter gets Whiffs)

Homer Bailey (--eh, he's healthy now and he's done things before) 

Tyler Mahle

Mike Clevinger (Slightly more owned, but I'm talking up everywhere possible.) 

Matt Boyd

Francisco Liriano (Another tough sell, but if I'm being objective right now in the moment I like Liriano's stuff better for both K's and ERA projection, both are on bad teams, but only one is in a bad ball park)

Reynaldo Lopez -- Saved for Last to Include a blurb from Paul Sporer's latest notes on FanGraphs, which I saw just recently, but echo my interest due to Reynaldo's combination of Talent and Repertoire Change--

 

Quote

 

He started getting some buzz late in draft season and threw well in his season debut. I wasn’t super-high on him coming into the season, but did slot him highest among the composite rankers here at Rotographs (89th) and wound up with a couple shares, including on in the Tout H2H league. On Tuesday, Lopez saw his velo at a career-high 96.4 mph and prominently featured a relatively new slider while shelving his curve. He was starting to get away from the curve last year, dropping it from 25% usage to just 13% and then threw all of two in his debut (out of 100 pitches). Here’s one of the nastier sliders he threw:

During that pitch the Toronto announcers were explaining how he wanted to have something in between his fastball and changeup velo-wise with down and in movement to lefties. Both curves were to righties: a whiff by Kevin Pillar and a groundout to third by Josh Donaldson. Everything was working as he allowed just two hits, one of them a solo shot to Donaldson.

 

It was very good start in a difficult venue against a good lineup. I’ll be keeping an eye on him to see how the slider develops. The changeup was awful against lefties last year so if this slider becomes a closeout pitch, it could spur a nice season. His next start is against Detroit and I’m starting him everywhere.


 

Paul Sporer -- Sporer Report Fangraphs

 

Basically-- ditched a mostly ineffective Curve, turning to a Cutter/Slider, which was effective in his first outing. 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.